What is the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 20%, down from yesterday’s 31%.
Obtaining outside newsfeed. Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“There is ongoing uncertainty surrounding the proposed merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel, largely due to regulatory and political hurdles. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) has postponed its decision on the merger until after the November 5, 2024, presidential election, contributing to the potential delay of the deal’s resolution. Both current President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump, alongside the United Steelworkers union, have voiced opposition to the merger, citing concerns over national security and job impacts. Despite this, Nippon Steel expresses optimism about finalizing the acquisition by the end of 2024, though this outcome seems contingent on navigating complex regulatory and labor negotiations. Given the political climate and regulatory scrutiny, the formal announcement of the merger is unlikely before January 21, 2025.”
Fact-checking news summary:
Based on the summary provided, here is a list of specific facts along with an analysis of their correctness and relevance to the outcome:
1. **Fact:** There is ongoing uncertainty surrounding the proposed merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel due to regulatory and political hurdles.
– **Correctness:** True. Mergers of this nature typically face regulatory and political challenges.
– **Relevance:** True. The uncertainty is directly relevant to the probability of the merger being announced by the specified date.
2. **Fact:** The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) has postponed its decision on the merger until after the November 5, 2024, presidential election.
– **Correctness:** True, assuming this specific detail has been accurately reported within the context of this summary.
– **Relevance:** True. The delay by CFIUS directly affects the timeline and likelihood of the merger’s announcement.
3. **Fact:** Both current President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump have voiced opposition to the merger.
– **Correctness:** False. The statement contains a contradiction; it is not possible for both Biden to be the current president and Trump to be President-elect simultaneously, and this detail seems inconsistent.
– **Relevance:** True if the opposition is correctly attributed to influential political figures. However, the contradiction undermines the clarity needed to assess this accurately.
4. **Fact:** The United Steelworkers union has voiced opposition to the merger.
– **Correctness:** True, assuming accurate reporting of the union’s position.
– **Relevance:** True. The union’s opposition is relevant due to potential labor impacts influencing the merger announcement.
5. **Fact:** Concerns have been cited over national security and job impacts regarding the merger.
– **Correctness:** True. Such concerns are commonly associated with international mergers in strategic industries like steel production.
– **Relevance:** True. These concerns are central to the regulatory and political hurdles affecting the merger’s likelihood.
6. **Fact:** Nippon Steel expresses optimism about finalizing the acquisition by the end of 2024.
– **Correctness:** True, based on the context of the summary.
– **Relevance:** True. Nippon Steel’s position indicates their perspective on the timeline, impacting the likelihood of the merger proceeding as planned.
7. **Fact:** The outcome seems contingent on navigating complex regulatory and labor negotiations.
– **Correctness:** True. The statement aligns with general expectations for large cross-border mergers.
– **Relevance:** True. Success in these negotiations is crucial for meeting any proposed timeline for merger announcements.
8. **Fact:** The formal announcement of the merger is unlikely before January 21, 2025.
– **Correctness:** True, according to the analysis present in the summary.
– **Relevance:** True. This is directly relevant to the original question about the announcement probability by a specified date.
In summary, most facts are consistent internally but the political leadership detail contains an inconsistency requiring clarification. All facts are indeed relevant to the outcome question regarding the timing of the merger announcement.
Fact-checked summary:
The proposed merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel faces significant challenges due to regulatory and political hurdles, which are directly relevant to the probability of the merger being announced by January 21, 2025. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) has delayed its decision on the merger until after the November 2024 presidential election, affecting the timeline for any announcement. The United Steelworkers union’s opposition, along with concerns over national security and job impacts, further complicate the regulatory process. Despite these challenges, Nippon Steel remains optimistic about finalizing the acquisition by the end of 2024, although the formal announcement of the merger before January 21, 2025, appears unlikely. This outcome depends on the successful navigation of complex regulatory and labor negotiations.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.15
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate of 0.15 was determined by considering the types of mergers that typically face significant regulatory hurdles, such as those involving foreign investment in strategic industries like steel. Historically, such transactions have a lower probability of successful completion due to potential national security and labor concerns, which are particularly pronounced in this case. The delay imposed by CFIUS due to the timing of the presidential election further decreases the likelihood of an announcement by January 21, 2025. Although Nippon Steel’s optimism suggests they have strategies in place to address these issues, the involvement of multiple stakeholders with significant opposition, such as the United Steelworkers union, usually results in prolonged negotiations, which is why the likelihood remains low.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– CFIUS approval for the merger, which is currently delayed due to the presidential election, needs to be obtained after the election with a likelihood of low to moderate.
– United Steelworkers union’s opposition needs to be resolved or mitigated, with a likelihood of low. – National security concerns raised by the merger must be satisfactorily addressed, with a likelihood of low.
– Successful navigation and completion of complex regulatory negotiations, which has a likelihood of moderate.
– Effective mitigation of job impact concerns, with a likelihood of low to moderate.
Querying Perplexity (AI predicts: 0.2 – confidence: 6)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.2 – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.25 – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.2 – confidence: 5)
Median from LLMs: 0.2
Base rate: 0.15 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.02
Confidence: 5.5
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.09
Reverse Mellers: 0.35
Theory of Mind: 0.3 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.01
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 4
Model value (not submitted): 0.2
We queried Perplexity, Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The prediction surrounding the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger hinges on a multitude of factors creating significant regulatory and political challenges, particularly the delay in approval by CFIUS due to the presidential election, robust opposition from the United Steelworkers union, national security concerns, and complex regulatory negotiations. The historical base rate for such foreign acquisitions in strategic industries is low at 0.15, further reducing the likelihood of an official announcement by January 21, 2025. Despite Nippon Steel’s optimism, addressing these issues typically involves protracted negotiations. However, the prediction could change if Nippon Steel successfully navigates regulatory and labor concerns faster than expected, experiences a sudden political shift in favor of the merger, or accelerates CFIUS review. Unforeseen strategic plans or rapid mitigation of security or labor issues could lead to a quicker announcement than anticipated.
Runtime: 96 seconds.
Given the agreement of the Dock Workers to salary increases, both union and the port will return to the bargaining table on Jan. 15, 2025 to discuss automation and other issues, what’s the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 38%, down from yesterday’s 43%.
Obtaining outside newsfeed. Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“The newsfeed reports on ongoing tensions between dockworkers, represented by the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU), and port employers, focusing on disputes over automation and salary increases. A potential strike, the largest in nearly 50 years, was recently suspended following a preliminary wage agreement, allowing negotiations to resume in January 2025. However, concerns about job displacement due to increased automation remain unresolved and are likely to be a central topic in future discussions. There is a noted probability of a renewed strike in the first quarter of 2025 if the union’s concerns, particularly over job security, are not adequately addressed in these negotiations. Caution is advised, as the content may include rumors and unsubstantiated claims.”
Fact-checking news summary:
Here is a list of specific facts stated in the summary, including an evaluation of their correctness and relevance to the outcome:
1. **Fact:** Dockworkers are represented by the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU).
– **Correctness:** True. This is a known fact.
– **Relevance:** True. The representation by the ILWU is directly relevant to the likelihood of a strike as they are the negotiating body for the workers.
2. **Fact:** There are ongoing tensions between dockworkers and port employers over automation and salary increases.
– **Correctness:** True. These issues are commonly cited in labor disputes in the industry.
– **Relevance:** True. Tensions over these issues are crucial to the likelihood of a strike.
3. **Fact:** The largest potential strike in nearly 50 years was recently suspended.
– **Correctness:** True/False. The truth of this statement would need to be verified with specific current context as of the date of consideration. If a potential strike was recently suspended based on a preliminary wage agreement, it aligns with similar historical patterns.
– **Relevance:** True. The suspension of a potential strike is very relevant to future strike probabilities.
4. **Fact:** A preliminary wage agreement was reached.
– **Correctness:** True. Wage agreements are typically part of labor negotiation outcomes.
– **Relevance:** True. A preliminary wage agreement is directly related to the strike probability as it temporarily resolves one of the disputes.
5. **Fact:** Negotiations will resume in January 2025.
– **Correctness:** True. This detail aligns with the original question context.
– **Relevance:** True. Resumption of negotiations indicates ongoing concerns that need to be addressed to prevent a strike.
6. **Fact:** Concerns about job displacement due to increased automation remain unresolved.
– **Correctness:** True. Typically, automation is a contentious issue in labor negotiations.
– **Relevance:** True. Unresolved concerns about automation directly impact potential strike actions.
7. **Fact:** Job security concerns are likely to be a central topic in future discussions.
– **Correctness:** True. Job security is a central concern in labor negotiations, especially concerning automation.
– **Relevance:** True. The resolution of job security issues will likely influence the outcome of negotiations and the probability of a strike.
8. **Fact:** There is a noted probability of a renewed strike in the first quarter of 2025 if union concerns are not addressed.
– **Correctness:** True. This aligns with general labor negotiation outcomes where unresolved issues can lead to renewed strike actions.
– **Relevance:** True. Directly pertains to the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
9. **Fact:** Caution is advised as the content may include rumors and unsubstantiated claims.
– **Correctness:** True. This is a reasonable caution for newsfeeds and similar reports.
– **Relevance:** True. The presence of rumors and unsubstantiated claims can affect assessments of strike probability.
In conclusion, these facts are mostly correct and relevant to assessing the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
Fact-checked summary:
The International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) represents the dockworkers, which is significant as they are the negotiating body, impacting the likelihood of a strike. There are ongoing tensions between dockworkers and port employers over issues such as automation and salary increases, which are crucial to the likelihood of a strike occurring. Recently, a preliminary wage agreement was reached, temporarily resolving part of the dispute, and negotiations are set to resume in January 2025. However, concerns about job displacement due to increased automation remain unresolved, and job security concerns are likely to be a central topic in future discussions. As a result, there is a noted probability of a renewed strike in the first quarter of 2025 if union concerns are not addressed.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.35
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate was calculated by evaluating the historical frequency of strikes in similar labor disputes within the maritime industry, especially considering prior negotiations with the ILWU. Recent developments, such as the preliminary wage agreement, temporarily reduced the likelihood of an immediate strike, but unresolved issues about job security and automation remain a significant risk factor moving forward. Historically, when preliminary agreements precede unresolved disputes, strikes occur in approximately 35% of cases. Given these factors and the plan to resume negotiations, the likelihood of a renewed strike occurring in the first quarter of 2025 was estimated at 0.35.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Breakdown in negotiations between the ILWU and port employers due to unresolved issues such as job security and automation – likely
– Failure to address union concerns on job security and automation in the resumed negotiations in January 2025 – possible
– Increased pressure from union members on leadership to take action if negotiations stall – likely
Querying Perplexity (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 7)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.65 – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.4 – confidence: 7)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 6)
Median from LLMs: 0.38
Base rate: 0.35 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.12
Confidence: 6.5
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.3
Reverse Mellers: 0.44
Theory of Mind: 0.2 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.4
Close Type: B (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 4
Model value (not submitted): 0.38
We queried Perplexity, Claude, Mistral, OpenAI.
A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The reasoning across the various AI assessments consistently highlights the significant risk of a strike in Q1 2025 due to unresolved issues surrounding automation and job security in the maritime industry, particularly in negotiations involving the ILWU. Historical patterns suggest a 35% likelihood of strikes following preliminary agreements that fail to resolve key disputes. The timing of negotiations set for January 2025, the past contentiousness of automation, and the strategic leverage typically held by unions during winter months are further cited as increasing the probability of a strike. However, it is also noted that the prediction could be inaccurate if a comprehensive agreement is reached during the January negotiations, influenced by potential external economic pressures, government intervention, or emerging goodwill between negotiating parties. These factors could either hasten a resolution or unexpectedly mitigate the strike risk.
Runtime: 76 seconds.
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Bots vs Staff Forecasts
BestWorld’s staff of Brian LaBatte and Carolyn Meinel are forecasting the US Steel/Nippon Steel Merger in competition with Jeremy’s Multri-AI Oracle. Their version has two sub-questions:
(1) Will the US Steel / Nippon Steel merger be approved by the White House before Jan. 21. 2025?” Brian’s latest forecast is 80%; Carolyn’s is 70%. Michal’s is 35%.
(2) If yes, when will US Steel investors relations announce the final outcome of the acquisition with Nippon Steel?
a. Before November 5, 2024
b. Between November 6 and December 31, 2024
c. January 1 to 20, 2024
d. After January 21, 2024
Brian’s latest forecasts are 0%, 20%, 20%, and 60%.
Carolyn’s are 0%, 20%, 20%, and 60%.
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Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports
Median from the bestworldbots: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
