What is the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 25%, up from 14% yesterday.
Obtaining outside newsfeed. Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“As of November 21, 2024, the proposed merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel faces several challenges that could affect its completion timeline, which aims for an end-2024 closure. While Nippon Steel expresses a strong commitment to finalizing the acquisition, the merger is subject to regulatory scrutiny, with a review by the U.S. Committee on Foreign Investment expected to conclude by late December 2024. Additionally, political opposition, notably from former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, raises concerns over foreign ownership of a major U.S. steel producer. Labor negotiations with the United Steelworkers union are ongoing, potentially impacting the deal’s progress. Despite Nippon Steel’s optimism, these factors, including regulatory hurdles and political resistance, suggest a decreased likelihood of an official announcement before January 21, 2025.”
Fact-checking news summary:
Here is a list of specific facts from the summary along with their evaluations:
1. **Fact**: As of November 21, 2024, the proposed merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel faces several challenges.
– **Correctness**: True (based on the summary)
– **Relevance**: True (establishes context for the timeline and challenges affecting the merger)
2. **Fact**: The aim is for the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger to achieve an end-2024 closure.
– **Correctness**: True (internal consistency with the summary)
– **Relevance**: True (provides a time frame relevant to assessing the probability of timing)
3. **Fact**: Nippon Steel expresses a strong commitment to finalizing the acquisition.
– **Correctness**: True (internal consistency with the summary)
– **Relevance**: True (Nippon Steel’s commitment is relevant to the likelihood of the merger’s progress)
4. **Fact**: The merger is subject to regulatory scrutiny by the U.S. Committee on Foreign Investment, with a review expected to conclude by late December 2024.
– **Correctness**: True (assuming the information is accurate regarding the committee’s involvement and timeline)
– **Relevance**: True (regulatory scrutiny is a critical factor in determining the timing of the merger announcement)
5. **Fact**: There is political opposition to the merger, notably from former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.
– **Correctness**: True (assuming the summary correctly identifies these individuals and their positions)
– **Relevance**: True (political opposition can influence the outcome and timing of a merger)
6. **Fact**: Concerns exist over foreign ownership of a major U.S. steel producer.
– **Correctness**: True (common concern in international mergers)
– **Relevance**: True (such concerns can lead to delays or changes in the merger’s progression)
7. **Fact**: Labor negotiations with the United Steelworkers union are ongoing.
– **Correctness**: True (assuming the summary’s accuracy regarding ongoing negotiations)
– **Relevance**: True (labor negotiations can impact the deal’s progress)
8. **Fact**: Despite Nippon Steel’s optimism, chances of an official announcement before January 21, 2025, decrease due to these factors.
– **Correctness**: True (logical conclusion from the challenges listed in the summary)
– **Relevance**: True (directly addresses the probability of an announcement by the specified date)
Overall, each of these facts appears internally consistent with the provided summary, relevant to the outcome of the merger, and impacts the probability assessment regarding the timing of an official announcement.
Fact-checked summary:
As of November 21, 2024, the proposed merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel faces several challenges. The aim is to achieve a closure by the end of 2024, with Nippon Steel expressing a strong commitment to finalizing the acquisition. However, the merger is subject to regulatory scrutiny by the U.S. Committee on Foreign Investment, with a review expected to conclude by late December 2024. Additionally, there is political opposition from figures such as former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, and concerns about foreign ownership of a major U.S. steel producer, which could influence the merger’s progression. Ongoing labor negotiations with the United Steelworkers union also impact the deal’s progress. Despite Nippon Steel’s optimism, these factors decrease the likelihood of an official announcement before January 21, 2025.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.3
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate of 0.3 considers the necessary events and the potential hurdles to the merger’s completion. Regulatory approval is a significant and uncertain factor, as such reviews have a mixed track record of concluding favorably. Political opposition from high-profile individuals can heavily influence public opinion and policymakers’ decisions, thus presenting a considerable challenge. The unique concern of foreign ownership in strategic industries like U.S. steel is often met with rigorous scrutiny and skepticism, suggesting a low likelihood of an easy path forward. Labor negotiations could also serve as a potential bottleneck. Historically, large international mergers with similar geopolitical and regulatory challenges have faced delays or denials, hence reducing the likelihood of an announcement before the deadline.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Regulatory approval by the U.S. Committee on Foreign Investment must be obtained, with a likelihood of ‘Moderately Likely’.
– Political opposition from significant figures such as former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris must be overcome, which is ‘Unlikely’.
– Concerns over foreign ownership must be addressed sufficiently to not impede progress, which is ‘Unlikely’.
– Successful completion of labor negotiations with the United Steelworkers union, which is ‘Moderately Likely’.
Querying Perplexity (AI predicts: 0.25 – confidence: 6)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.25 – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.25 – confidence: 5)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.25 – confidence: 5)
Median from LLMs: 0.25
Base rate: 0.3 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0
Confidence: 5
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.17
Reverse Mellers: 0.33
Theory of Mind: 0.4 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.001
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 4
Model value (not submitted): 0.25
We queried Perplexity, Claude, Mistral, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews). A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The proposed merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel is facing various challenges that make its completion by January 21, 2025, highly uncertain. Key obstacles include obtaining regulatory approval from the U.S. Committee on Foreign Investment, overcoming political opposition from figures like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, addressing concerns related to foreign ownership, and successfully completing labor negotiations with the United Steelworkers union. Historically, similar large international mergers have faced significant hurdles, reflected in a base likelihood of success at 0.3, which is further adjusted to 0.25 given the specific challenges mentioned. However, there remains a possibility that the prediction might be too pessimistic. Accelerated regulatory approval, less impactful political opposition, strong commitment from Nippon Steel, and smooth labor negotiations could potentially lead to a more favorable outcome. These factors illustrate the complexities surrounding the merger process and underscore the potential for both unexpected delays and swift progress.
Runtime: 90 seconds.
Given the agreement of the Dock Workers to salary increases, both union and the port will return to the bargaining table on Jan. 15, 2025 to discuss automation and other issues, what’s the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 44%, down from 45% yesterday.
Obtaining outside newsfeed. Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“The newsfeed reports that the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) has temporarily suspended its strike and agreed to return to work until January 15, 2025, allowing time for contract negotiations with the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX). The discussions focus on key issues such as automation, which the union fears could result in job losses, whereas the USMX views it as essential for safety and efficiency. The potential for a strike in Q1 2025 persists, contingent on the outcome of these negotiations, particularly concerning automation and wage increases. Although an agreement currently exists, the unresolved issues may rekindle tensions and lead to a strike once the contract extension expires. The information should be considered cautiously as it may contain unverified claims.”
Fact-checking news summary:
Here is a list of specific facts from the summary, along with an evaluation of their correctness and relevance to the outcome:
1. **Fact**: The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) has temporarily suspended its strike.
– **Correctness**: True. The summary indicates that the ILA has suspended its strike.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True. This is relevant because it sets the stage for negotiations that will impact the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
2. **Fact**: The ILA has agreed to return to work until January 15, 2025.
– **Correctness**: True. The summary explicitly states this timeframe.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True. The return to work by this date is relevant as it coincides with when negotiations will resume and could influence the likelihood of a strike.
3. **Fact**: The discussions will focus on automation and other issues.
– **Correctness**: True. The summary mentions automation as a key issue in the negotiations.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True. The focus on automation is significant since it is a contentious point that could impact strike likelihood.
4. **Fact**: The union fears automation could result in job losses.
– **Correctness**: True. This reflects a common concern among unions regarding automation.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True. This concern is central to negotiations and could affect the probability of a strike.
5. **Fact**: The USMX views automation as essential for safety and efficiency.
– **Correctness**: True. The summary indicates this viewpoint.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True. USMX’s stance on automation is a critical factor in negotiations and thus relevant to the strike probability.
6. **Fact**: The potential for a strike in Q1 2025 persists.
– **Correctness**: True. The summary suggests that the potential exists depending on negotiation outcomes.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True. This is directly related to the original question about the strike probability.
7. **Fact**: An agreement currently exists but unresolved issues may lead to tensions.
– **Correctness**: True. There is an indication of an ongoing agreement with unresolved issues.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True. The presence of unresolved issues could influence whether a strike occurs when the agreement ends.
8. **Fact**: Information should be considered cautiously due to potential unverified claims.
– **Correctness**: True. The summary warns about the reliability of the information.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: False. This fact does not directly impact the probability of a strike but suggests caution in interpreting information.
Overall, most facts are both correct and relevant to assessing the probability of a strike in Q1 2025, except for the caution about information verification, which is not directly relevant to the outcome but advises careful consideration of the facts.
Fact-checked summary:
The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) has temporarily suspended its strike and agreed to return to work until January 15, 2025, a date that aligns with when negotiations will resume. These discussions will focus on key issues such as automation, which is a significant concern for the union due to fears of job losses. Conversely, the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) considers automation essential for safety and efficiency. Despite an existing agreement, unresolved issues remain, potentially heightening tensions that could affect the likelihood of a strike in Q1 2025. The potential for a strike persists, contingent on the outcomes of these forthcoming negotiations.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.35
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate was determined by evaluating similar historical events where labor negotiations were critical, specifically in industries highly sensitive to automation and job security. Historically, such negotiations have a reasonable chance of breaking down, particularly when automation is a contentious issue. The current agreement expiration date places negotiations at a critical juncture: shortly after the holiday shipping peak, but before the spring shipping season, which could motivate both parties to reach a resolution. However, given that today’s date is November 21, 2024, and tensions are expected to heighten leading to Q1 2025, the historical precedent alongside the ILA’s significant concerns over automation affects the probability. This results in an estimated base rate of 0.35, suggesting that while a strike is fairly possible, there remains a substantial chance for resolution before it occurs.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Breakdown in negotiations between the ILA and USMX in January 2025, moderate likelihood.
– Failure to address automation concerns satisfactorily for the ILA, moderate likelihood.
– Increased tension and lack of compromise on key issues during the bargaining period, moderate to high likelihood.
– Absence of alternative dispute resolution mechanisms to prevent a strike, moderate likelihood.
Querying Perplexity (AI predicts: 0.42 – confidence: 6)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.65 – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.45 – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.4 – confidence: 6)
Median from LLMs: 0.44
Base rate: 0.35 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.1
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.41
Reverse Mellers: 0.46
Theory of Mind: 0.5 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.19
Close Type: B (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 4
Model value (not submitted): 0.44
We queried Perplexity, Claude, Mistral, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews). A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The various AIs suggest that the likelihood of a strike in Q1 2025 is high due to unresolved tensions over automation and job security between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX). The historical base rate for similar labor negotiations suggests a moderate probability of breakdown, with automation often leading to labor disputes. The timing after the holiday season but before spring shipping increases leverage for union action, alongside the temporary suspension of strike activities indicating unresolved tensions. While negotiation talks are set for January 15, 2025, presenting an opportunity for compromise, unresolved issues and a lack of alternative dispute mechanisms heighten the risk. However, if both parties can find common ground, and external factors such as economic pressures or government intervention come into play, a strike might be averted, suggesting that the prediction could be incorrect if the negotiations proceed more smoothly than anticipated.
Runtime: 101 seconds.
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Bots vs Staff Forecasts
BestWorld’s staff of Brian LaBatte and Carolyn Meinel are forecasting the US Steel/Nippon Steel Merger in competition with Jeremy’s Multri-AI Oracle. Their version has two sub-questions:
(1) Will the US Steel / Nippon Steel merger be approved by the White House before Jan. 21. 2025?” Brian’s latest forecast is 80%; Carolyn’s is 70%. Michael’s is 35%.
(2) If yes, when will US Steel investors relations announce the final outcome of the acquisition with Nippon Steel?
a. Before November 5, 2024
b. Between November 6 and December 31, 2024
c. January 1 to 20, 2024
d. After January 21, 2024
Brian’s latest forecasts are 0%, 20%, 20%, and 60%.
Carolyn’s are 0%, 20%, 20%, and 60%.
Our spreadsheets below:
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Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports
Median from the bestworldbots: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
