What is the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 15%, down from yesterday’s 18%.
“The proposed $14.9 billion merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel faces an uncertain approval timeline due to ongoing review by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), with a decision expected only after the November 5, 2024, presidential election. Political concerns, including national security and job impact, expressed by President Joe Biden and other politicians, alongside opposition from the United Steelworkers (USW) union, further complicate the merger’s prospects. These factors make an official announcement before January 21, 2025, appear unlikely as the regulatory and political landscape continues to develop.”
Fact-checking news summary:
Below are specific facts derived from the summary, accompanied by checks for correctness and relevance:
1. **Fact:** The proposed merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel is valued at $14.9 billion.
– **Correctness:** True. This fact can be externally verified from reliable sources if such a merger has been reported with this valuation.
– **Relevance:** True. The financial value of the merger is directly relevant to understanding the scale and potential impact of the merger, which may influence the probability of its announcement.
2. **Fact:** The merger is under review by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS).
– **Correctness:** True. For international mergers involving U.S. companies, CFIUS often reviews deals for national security implications.
– **Relevance:** True. The outcome of a CFIUS review is critical to whether and when a merger is officially announced.
3. **Fact:** A decision on the merger is expected only after the November 5, 2024, presidential election.
– **Correctness:** True/False. The correctness depends on insider information or statements from officials that are not specified in this summary; typically, CFIUS does not publicly state when it will render a decision.
– **Relevance:** True. The timing of the decision relates directly to whether the merger could be announced before January 21, 2025.
4. **Fact:** President Joe Biden and other politicians have expressed political concerns regarding the merger.
– **Correctness:** True/False. This would be true if there are public statements or reports of concern; otherwise, it could be speculative.
– **Relevance:** True. Political opposition can significantly impact the approval process and timeline.
5. **Fact:** National security and job impact are among the concerns regarding the merger.
– **Correctness:** True. These are common concerns with foreign investments in key industries.
– **Relevance:** True. Such concerns are crucial in regulatory reviews, affecting the likelihood of approval.
6. **Fact:** The United Steelworkers (USW) union opposes the merger.
– **Correctness:** True/False. This depends on whether there is documentation or reporting of the union’s stance; it could be speculative otherwise.
– **Relevance:** True. Union opposition can influence public and political opinion, potentially impacting regulatory decisions.
7. **Fact:** An official announcement of the merger before January 21, 2025, appears unlikely.
– **Correctness:** True. Based on the context provided, this assessment is likely if challenges and reviews take time.
– **Relevance:** True. This is directly relevant to answering the original question about the probability of announcement timing.
Fact-checked summary:
The proposed merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel is valued at $14.9 billion and is currently under review by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), which is common for international mergers involving U.S. companies. National security and job impact are among the critical concerns being considered in this regulatory process. An official announcement of the merger before January 21, 2025, appears unlikely given the ongoing review and challenges that typically require significant time to resolve.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.15
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate was estimated considering the historical outcomes of similar international mergers involving U.S. companies, which often face lengthy and complex regulatory reviews, particularly when national security is a concern. The process can extend well beyond initial timelines. Given the significant value of the merger and the sensitive nature of steel production to national security, such mergers are subject to rigorous scrutiny. Historical data suggests that many mergers are either delayed or modified substantially to meet regulatory approval, particularly under CFIUS review. As there are just over two months remaining until January 21, 2025, and considering the extensive time these reviews typically require, the likelihood of securing all necessary approvals before this date is low.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) approves the merger Unlikely
– Management and stakeholders of both US Steel and Nippon Steel finalize all merger agreements Moderately likely
– All regulatory requirements and security concerns are addressed to the satisfaction of involved parties before January 21, 2025 Unlikely
Querying Perplexity (AI predicts: 0.2 – confidence: 6)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.1 – confidence: 5)
Median from LLMs: 0.15
Base rate: 0.15 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.04
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.07
Reverse Mellers: 0.24
Theory of Mind: 0.25 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.47
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 4
Model value (not submitted): 0.15
We queried Perplexity, Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The consensus among the AI predictions is that the merger in question is unlikely to be finalized before January 21, 2025, primarily due to the complex and lengthy nature of regulatory reviews, particularly those involving national security concerns and the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS). Historical data suggests that similar international mergers involving U.S. companies typically require more time than is currently available for completion. Key factors include the substantial value of the merger ($14.9 billion) and its significance to the steel industry, which often trigger intense scrutiny and lengthy review periods. However, some predictions note that this forecast could prove incorrect if regulatory processes are expedited or influenced by political pressures, or if significant preliminary work has already been conducted to address potential regulatory hurdles.
Runtime: 79 seconds.
Given the agreement of the Dock Workers to salary increases, both union and the port will return to the bargaining table on Jan. 15, 2025 to discuss automation and other issues, what’s the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 53%, down from yesterday’s 57%.
Obtaining outside newsfeed. Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“Recent reports suggest that U.S. dockworkers, represented by the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU), have temporarily halted their strike, agreeing to return to work under a preliminary agreement that extends through January 15, 2025. This interim deal allows continued negotiations on crucial issues, including wage hikes and protections against automation—topics that remain central to the union’s concerns. If a satisfactory contract isn’t reached by the deadline, the potential for another strike in early 2025 could increase, given the union’s firm stance on job security and automation challenges. The reliability of these reports may vary, as they could contain rumors or unconfirmed information.”
Fact-checking news summary:
Let’s extract and analyze the specific facts from the summary:
1. **U.S. dockworkers, represented by the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU), have temporarily halted their strike.**
– **Check (external and internal consistency):** True. The ILWU represents dockworkers and can negotiate halting strikes.
– **Relevance to the outcome (strike probability in Q1 2025):** True. Halting the strike is relevant as it signifies a temporary resolution.
2. **Dockworkers have agreed to return to work under a preliminary agreement that extends through January 15, 2025.**
– **Check (external and internal consistency):** True. Workers returning under an agreement that lasts until January 15, 2025, aligns with typical negotiation practices.
– **Relevance to the outcome:** True. The extension of the agreement is directly relevant to the potential for future strikes.
3. **This interim deal allows continued negotiations on crucial issues, including wage hikes and protections against automation.**
– **Check (external and internal consistency):** True. Interim deals commonly aim to give time for negotiations on key issues.
– **Relevance to the outcome:** True. The ongoing negotiations regarding key issues affect the likelihood of a strike.
4. **These topics remain central to the union’s concerns.**
– **Check (external and internal consistency):** True. Wage hikes and automation protections are known central issues for the ILWU.
– **Relevance to the outcome:** True. Central concerns are critical in determining strike probabilities.
5. **If a satisfactory contract isn’t reached by the deadline, the potential for another strike in early 2025 could increase.**
– **Check (external and internal consistency):** True. If no agreement is met, the possibility of a strike commonly rises.
– **Relevance to the outcome:** True. The lack of a satisfactory contract directly affects the likelihood of a strike.
6. **The union has a firm stance on job security and automation challenges.**
– **Check (external and internal consistency):** True. The ILWU has historically maintained firm positions on job security and automation.
– **Relevance to the outcome:** True. The union’s firm stance influences negotiation outcomes and strike considerations.
7. **The reliability of these reports may vary, as they could contain rumors or unconfirmed information.**
– **Check (external and internal consistency):** True. News reports often contain varying reliability, with some information unconfirmed.
– **Relevance to the outcome:** False. The reliability of reports does not directly affect the probability of a strike.
In summary, most facts from the summary are correct and relevant to the outcome of a potential strike in Q1 2025, except for the reliability of reports, which is a disclaimer rather than a central issue influencing the likelihood of a strike.
Fact-checked summary:
U.S. dockworkers, represented by the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU), have temporarily halted their strike and agreed to return to work under a preliminary agreement that extends through January 15, 2025. This interim deal allows for continued negotiations on crucial issues, such as wage increases and protections against automation, which remain central concerns for the union. The union has historically maintained a firm stance on job security and automation challenges, further impacting these negotiations. If a satisfactory contract is not reached by the January deadline, the potential for another strike in early 2025 could increase, as unresolved key issues are likely to influence the likelihood of a strike.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.4
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate of 0.4 is derived from considering the historical patterns of labor negotiations involving the ILWU, where the union has a record of strong stances on critical issues leading to strikes or strike threats in the past. The preliminary agreement extending negotiations indicates a temporary respite, but significant issues remain unresolved. Historically, negotiations in similar contexts often face challenges reconciling differences, especially with union insistence on automation and wage security. The likelihood of events such as negotiation failure and union backing for further strike action is high given past incidences, but the interim agreement and ongoing mediation efforts keep the probability of a 2025 strike below even odds, albeit significant.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve
positively:
– Failure of negotiations to resolve key issues such as wage increases and protections against automation (likely)
– Breakdown in trust or communication between the ILWU and employers (possible)
– Increased union member support for a resumption of strike action (likely)
– Inability of other labor or government efforts to mediate or resolve differences (possible)
Querying Perplexity (AI predicts: 0.55 – confidence: 7)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.65 – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.55 – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.45 – confidence: 5)
Median from LLMs: 0.55
Base rate: 0.4 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.07
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.57
Reverse Mellers: 0.53
Theory of Mind: 0.45 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.02
Close Type: B (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 4
Model value (not submitted): 0.53
We queried Perplexity, Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The various AIs converge on the assessment that while the historical pattern of the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) and the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) in labor negotiations often involves strikes or the threat thereof, several complex factors contribute to the prediction of a potential strike in Q1 2025. Key unresolved issues, particularly around automation and job security, are at the forefront of concerns that could lead to strikes, with historical stances and the ongoing interim nature of agreements adding to this likelihood. The timeframe of early 2025 is crucial as it allows for the possibility of failed negotiations. Nevertheless, the probability of a strike remains below 50% due to the potential for successful resolution through negotiations, mediation, government intervention, or alternative pressure tactics by the union. The dynamics of negotiation success, external economic factors, and flexibility on key issues such as automation and wage increases could alter this prediction favorably, preventing strike action.
Runtime: 81 seconds.
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Bots vs Staff Forecasts
BestWorld’s staff of Brian LaBatte and Carolyn Meinel are forecasting the US Steel/Nippon Steel Merger in competition with Jeremy’s Multri-AI Oracle. Their version has two sub-questions:
(1) Will the US Steel / Nippon Steel merger be approved by the White House before Jan. 21. 2025?” Brian’s latest forecast is 80%; Carolyn’s is 70%. Michael’s is 35%.
(2) If yes, when will US Steel investors relations announce the final outcome of the acquisition with Nippon Steel?
a. Before November 5, 2024
b. Between November 6 and December 31, 2024
c. January 1 to 20, 2024
d. After January 21, 2024
Brian’s latest forecasts are 0%, 20%, 20%, and 60%.
Carolyn’s are 0%, 20%, 20%, and 60%.
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Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports
Median from the bestworldbots: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
