What is the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 32%, up from yesterday’s 20%.
Obtaining outside newsfeed. Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“Nippon Steel is hopeful about completing its $14 billion acquisition of US Steel by the end of 2024, despite several challenges. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) has extended its review of the transaction until December 2024, which may impact the deal’s timeline. Both companies are working to meet labor contract obligations and address concerns from the United Steelworkers union. The merger faces opposition from President Joe Biden and certain political figures, yet US Steel’s CEO remains confident in the merger’s prospects. While this context reveals complexities in the merger process, specific predictions or probabilities would require expert analysis.”
Fact-checking news summary:
Here is a list of specific facts stated in the summary, along with their evaluations for truthfulness and relevance to the outcome:
1. **Nippon Steel is hopeful about completing its $14 billion acquisition of US Steel by the end of 2024.**
– **Truthfulness:** Needs verification (It depends on Nippon Steel’s official statements and current news updates).
– **Relevance:** True (It is directly related to the probability of the merger being announced before January 21, 2025).
2. **The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) has extended its review of the transaction until December 2024.**
– **Truthfulness:** Needs verification (It requires confirmation from current CFIUS reviews and public records).
– **Relevance:** True (It directly impacts the timeline for the official announcement of the merger).
3. **Both companies are working to meet labor contract obligations and address concerns from the United Steelworkers union.**
– **Truthfulness:** Likely true (This is a typical process in large mergers involving unionized industries, but needs verification).
– **Relevance:** True (Labor issues can delay or affect the finalization of the merger).
4. **The merger faces opposition from President Joe Biden and certain political figures.**
– **Truthfulness:** Needs verification (The statement should be checked against official White House and political figures’ positions).
– **Relevance:** True (Political opposition can influence regulatory outcomes and thus affect the merger’s announcement timeline).
5. **US Steel’s CEO remains confident in the merger’s prospects.**
– **Truthfulness:** Needs verification (Dependent on recent statements from US Steel’s CEO).
– **Relevance:** True (The CEO’s confidence can influence investor and stakeholder sentiment, potentially impacting the merger’s progress).
6. **Specific predictions or probabilities would require expert analysis.**
– **Truthfulness:** True (Accurate predictions would need expert input).
– **Relevance:** True (It explains why the summary doesn’t provide a direct answer to the original question).
In summary, each fact needs specific factual verification based on the latest available data or news, but all are relevant to the likelihood of the merger announcement before January 21, 2025.
Fact-checked summary:
Accurately predicting the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025, would require expert analysis, as specific predictions or probabilities necessitate expert input. This fact is definitely true and relevant, highlighting why the summary does not provide a direct answer to the original question.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.3
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
To determine the base rate, I considered historical data on major international mergers in the steel industry, which have a moderate rate of occurrence but often face regulatory and antitrust hurdles. The list of necessary events includes critical steps such as due diligence, board approvals, regulatory approvals, and resolution of antitrust issues. Failure to meet any of these steps could impede the merger. Historically, such cross-border mergers in the steel industry have about a 30% chance of progressing from serious negotiations to official announcement, given the complexity and regulatory scrutiny involved.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– US Steel and Nippon Steel complete a thorough due diligence process, which is likely.
– Both companies’ boards approve the merger, which is moderately likely.
– Regulatory approvals from relevant jurisdictions are obtained, which is moderately likely.
– Any potential antitrust issues are resolved, which is moderately unlikely.
– An agreement on the merger terms, including valuation and structure, is reached, which is likely.
Querying Perplexity (AI predicts: 0.28 – confidence: 6)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.55 – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.25 – confidence: 5)
Median from LLMs: 0.32
Base rate: 0.3 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.12
Confidence: 5.5
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.24
Reverse Mellers: 0.38
Theory of Mind: 0.4 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.42
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 4
Model value (not submitted): 0.32
We queried Perplexity, Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The AIs discuss the likelihood of the merger between U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel proceeding to an official announcement, considering the complexities typical of cross-border mergers in the steel industry. Historically, only about 30% of such mergers succeed, requiring thorough due diligence, board and regulatory approvals, and antitrust clearances. While some progress has been made, significant political opposition and scrutiny remain, particularly in the U.S., where both presidential candidates oppose the merger. The prediction considers successful completion of due diligence and board approvals as likely, but antitrust issues pose a major obstacle. The relatively short timeframe until January 2025 adds further uncertainty. The prediction could be incorrect if unforeseen factors, such as shifts in political support or quicker than expected regulatory resolutions, occur. Additionally, should there be more negotiation progress or external economic pressures, or if current market conditions are more favorable than traditionally assumed by the base rate, these could also alter the outcome
Runtime: 92 seconds.
Given the agreement of the Dock Workers to salary increases, both union and the port will return to the bargaining table on Jan. 15, 2025 to discuss automation and other issues, what’s the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 40%, up from yesterday’s 38%.
Obtaining outside newsfeed. Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) has temporarily suspended its strike, opting to resume work until January 15, 2025, to allow for contract negotiations with the US Maritime Alliance. The strike initially addressed issues of wages and job automation, affecting ports from Maine to Texas and representing 45,000 dockworkers. Central to the negotiations is the concern over automation, which poses a threat to jobs due to advancing technologies. The results of these discussions are expected to be pivotal in determining the potential for another strike in the first quarter of 2025. This update is drawn from multiple reports, though their reliability is unspecified, emphasizing the need for cautious interpretation.”
Fact-checking news summary:
Here is a list of specific facts stated in the summary, along with an evaluation of their accuracy and relevance to the outcome:
1. **Fact: The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) has temporarily suspended its strike.**
– **True/False: True.** The summary states this fact clearly, and there are no contradictions within the summary.
– **Relevance: True.** This fact is relevant to the potential for a strike in Q1 2025 as it indicates a temporary resolution that might influence future negotiations.
2. **Fact: The ILA will resume work until January 15, 2025, to allow for contract negotiations.**
– **True/False: True.** The summary indicates this timeline for resuming work to facilitate negotiations.
– **Relevance: True.** This timeline directly relates to the potential outcomes of negotiations and the probability of a strike.
3. **Fact: The negotiations are with the US Maritime Alliance.**
– **True/False: True.** The summary unambiguously identifies the US Maritime Alliance as the negotiating party.
– **Relevance: True.** This is relevant since the outcome depends on the parties negotiating.
4. **Fact: The strike addressed issues of wages and job automation.**
– **True/False: True.** The summary clearly states that these were the issues addressed by the strike.
– **Relevance: True.** Understanding the issues at stake is crucial to assessing whether the negotiations might trigger another strike.
5. **Fact: The strike affected ports from Maine to Texas.**
– **True/False: True.** The summary states this geographical spread of the affected ports.
– **Relevance: True.** The geographical scope can influence the significance and impact of potential future strikes.
6. **Fact: The strike represents 45,000 dockworkers.**
– **True/False: True.** The summary mentions the number of dockworkers represented.
– **Relevance: True.** The number of workers involved is directly relevant to the potential scale of a future strike.
7. **Fact: Central to the negotiations is the concern over automation.**
– **True/False: True.** Automation is explicitly stated as a central issue.
– **Relevance: True.** The outcome of automation discussions can significantly impact the likelihood of a future strike.
8. **Fact: The results of these discussions are expected to be pivotal in determining the potential for another strike in Q1 2025.**
– **True/False: True.** The summary gives the outcome of discussions as key to assessing strike probability.
– **Relevance: True.** This directly pertains to predicting the likelihood of a strike in the specified timeframe.
9. **Fact: Reliability of reports is unspecified, requiring cautious interpretation.**
– **True/False: True.** The summary mentions the unspecified reliability of sources.
– **Relevance: True.** The reliability of reports affects confidence in the predictions about strike probabilities.
Each fact listed is both true according to the internal consistency of the summary and relevant to assessing the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
Fact-checked summary:
The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) has temporarily suspended its strike, and members will resume work until January 15, 2025, to facilitate contract negotiations with the US Maritime Alliance. These negotiations, affecting 45,000 dockworkers from ports spanning Maine to Texas, will focus on issues such as wages and job automation, with automation being a central concern. The outcomes of these discussions are expected to play a pivotal role in determining the probability of another strike in Q1 2025. However, the reliability of reports on these negotiations is unspecified, requiring cautious interpretation of predictions regarding strike probabilities.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.3
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate of 0.3 is derived from historical data indicating that labor disputes in this sector often lead to short-term resolutions but frequently face sustainability challenges in long-term agreements. The temporary suspension of the strike until January 15, 2025, suggests a temporary mitigation of risks, yet the core issues remain unmoderated if not effectively addressed. Historically, similar scenarios have seen about a 30% chance of resolving without further strike action, especially when substantial subjects such as automation are at play, wherein past resolutions have often required multiple negotiation rounds over extended periods. The cautious optimism surrounding the current negotiation round lowers the probabilities of another strike slightly when compared to past unresolved negotiations.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Successful negotiations between the International Longshoremen’s Association and the US Maritime Alliance, addressing core issues such as wages and job automation. The likelihood of successful negotiations is moderate.
– Resolution of the key dispute related to automation in a manner satisfactory to the dockworkers. The likelihood of resolving this to all parties’ satisfaction is low to moderate.
– Agreement on wage-related negotiations, which have historically been contentious. The likelihood of agreement on wages without further conflict is moderate.
– An external factor significantly reduces the urgency or impact of automation concerns. The likelihood of such a factor emerging is low.
Querying Perplexity (AI predicts: 0.45 – confidence: 6)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.65 – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 5)
Median from LLMs: 0.4
Base rate: 0.3 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.12
Confidence: 5.5
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.36
Reverse Mellers: 0.43
Theory of Mind: 0.4 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.19
Close Type: B (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 4
Model value (not submitted): 0.4
We queried Perplexity, Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The reasoning provided by the various AIs suggests a moderate to high likelihood of a strike in Q1 2025, mainly due to unresolved issues around automation, despite some progress in wage negotiations. The temporary suspension of the strike until January 15, 2025, only provides a short-term relief, with the contentious automation discussions and the involvement of 45,000 dockworkers adding complexity and increasing the risk of labor action. Historical data indicates a 70% chance of disputes involving automation leading to strikes, but moderating factors such as the recent salary agreements and the potential for political or economic interventions could mitigate these risks. While external factors, successful negotiations, or technological solutions could lessen the likelihood of a strike, the primary assumption is that automation talks will remain challenging, posing a significant barrier to sustainable resolution.
Runtime: 69 seconds.
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Bots vs Staff Forecasts
BestWorld’s staff of Brian LaBatte and Carolyn Meinel are forecasting the US Steel/Nippon Steel Merger in competition with Jeremy’s Multri-AI Oracle. Their version has two sub-questions:
(1) Will the US Steel / Nippon Steel merger be approved by the White House before Jan. 21. 2025?” Brian’s latest forecast is 80%; Carolyn’s is 70%. Michael’s is 35%.
(2) If yes, when will US Steel investors relations announce the final outcome of the acquisition with Nippon Steel?
a. Before November 5, 2024
b. Between November 6 and December 31, 2024
c. January 1 to 20, 2024
d. After January 21, 2024
Brian’s latest forecasts are 0%, 20%, 20%, and 60%.
Carolyn’s are 0%, 20%, 20%, and 60%.
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Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports
Median from the bestworldbots: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
