What is the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 31%, up from yesterday’s 25%.
Obtaining outside newsfeed. Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“The potential merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel, valued at $14.9 billion, faces significant political and union-related obstacles, casting doubt on its completion by January 21, 2025. Nippon Steel is pushing to finalize the acquisition by late 2024, but faces opposition from President Joe Biden, President-elect Donald Trump, and concerns from Vice President-elect J.D. Vance regarding national security. Additionally, the United Steelworkers union is opposed to the merger, complicating the approval process. Recent attempts by Nippon Steel’s leadership to meet with union workers might influence opinions, but the market remains skeptical due to strong political resistance, despite optimistic statements from US Steel CEO David Burritt.”
Fact-checking news summary:
Let’s break down the summary into specific facts and evaluate their correctness and relevance to the original question about the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025:
1. **The potential merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel is valued at $14.9 billion.**
– **Correctness:** True (Assumes the valuation given is accurate based on the context provided).
– **Relevance:** True (The valuation is relevant as it addresses the scale and significance of the merger).
2. **The merger faces significant political and union-related obstacles.**
– **Correctness:** True (Assuming the context provided accurately represents the political and union-related challenges).
– **Relevance:** True (Obstacles are directly relevant to the likelihood of the merger being announced).
3. **Nippon Steel is pushing to finalize the acquisition by late 2024.**
– **Correctness:** True (Assuming the timeline provided reflects Nippon Steel’s publicly stated goals).
– **Relevance:** True (The timeline highlights the urgency and plans of the parties involved, related to the question).
4. **Opposition from President Joe Biden, President-elect Donald Trump, and concerns from Vice President-elect J.D. Vance regarding national security.**
– **Correctness:** False (There is an internal inconsistency; the simultaneous mention of both a sitting President and President-elect is unusual, unless it refers to a transitional period immediately following an election).
– **Relevance:** True (Political opposition is directly relevant to the merger’s likelihood of being announced).
5. **The United Steelworkers union is opposed to the merger.**
– **Correctness:** True (Assumes the stated opposition reflects accurate reporting of union positions).
– **Relevance:** True (Union opposition is relevant as it affects the merger approval process).
6. **Recent attempts by Nippon Steel’s leadership to meet with union workers might influence opinions.**
– **Correctness:** True (Assuming the attempts to meet are factual and documented).
– **Relevance:** True (Such attempts could potentially alter union opposition, impacting the merger’s prospects).
7. **The market remains skeptical due to strong political resistance, despite optimistic statements from US Steel CEO David Burritt.**
– **Correctness:** True (Assuming there is documented market skepticism and statements from the CEO).
– **Relevance:** True (Market sentiment is relevant to predicting the outcome of the merger announcement).
**Additional Notes:**
– Certain facts contain assumptions that their correctness is based on provided context. Actual verification would require external sources not available in this summary.
– Relevance is judged based on how each fact could influence the probability of the merger being announced before the specified date.
Fact-checked summary:
The potential merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel is valued at $14.9 billion, indicating the scale and significance of the transaction, which is relevant to assessing its probability of being announced. The merger faces significant political and union-related obstacles, including opposition from the United Steelworkers union, which are critical factors affecting its likelihood of being finalized. Nippon Steel aims to finalize the acquisition by late 2024, highlighting a timeline that aligns with the question’s focus on an announcement by January 21, 2025. Recent efforts by Nippon Steel’s leadership to engage with union workers might influence union opposition, potentially impacting the merger’s prospects. Despite optimistic statements from US Steel CEO David Burritt, the market remains skeptical due to strong political resistance, which plays a crucial role in determining whether the merger will be officially announced within the specified timeframe.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.35
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
To determine the base rate, I considered several factors, including historical precedence of large mergers facing political and union challenges, which typically have a moderate to low probability of success. The substantial value of the transaction ($14.9 billion) suggests significant economic incentives to pursue the merger, potentially increasing the likelihood of resolution. However, the strong political resistance and union opposition pose critical barriers. Nippon Steel’s efforts to engage with unions suggest strategies to overcome some obstacles, yet success in these endeavors remains uncertain. Historically, similar mergers faced delays or failures due to comparable challenges. Given the timeline of approximately two months until January 21, 2025, the window is narrow to address these complex issues, reducing the likelihood of a completed agreement being announced. Thus, the base rate is set lower, reflecting the high-impact challenges offset by the strategic maneuvers to resolve them.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– US Steel and Nippon Steel reach a final agreement on merger terms.
– Nippon Steel successfully addresses union opposition, especially from the United Steelworkers.
– Political obstacles are mitigated or overcome to gain necessary approvals. – Regulatory bodies do not impose blocking conditions or disapproval.
– Internal alignment within both companies to push forward the merger in a timely manner.
Querying Perplexity (AI predicts: 0.32 – confidence: 6)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.3 – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.45 – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.3 – confidence: 5)
Median from LLMs: 0.31
Base rate: 0.35 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.06
Confidence: 5.5
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.24
Reverse Mellers: 0.37
Theory of Mind: 0.425 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.74
Close Type: B (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 4
Model value (not submitted): 0.31
We queried Perplexity, Claude, Mistral, OpenAI.A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The reasoning collectively highlights the significant challenges faced by the merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel, given the political resistance, union opposition from United Steelworkers, and regulatory hurdles they need to overcome. Despite the economic incentives of this $14.9 billion deal and Nippon Steel’s active engagement with unions, historical precedents indicate a moderate to low probability of success, particularly within the compressed timeline of two months. However, there are considerations that could alter this outlook, such as effective behind-the-scenes negotiations, expedited union resolutions, diminished political resistance through lobbying, and rapid regulatory clarity, which could potentially facilitate a smoother merger process than anticipated.
Runtime: 89 seconds.
Given the agreement of the Dock Workers to salary increases, both union and the port will return to the bargaining table on Jan. 15, 2025 to discuss automation and other issues, what’s the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 35%, the same as yesterday.
Obtaining outside newsfeed. Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) have reached a tentative agreement that includes a 62% wage increase over six years, temporarily averting a potential strike. Despite this progress, key issues related to automation and job security remain unresolved. Negotiations are set to resume on January 15, 2025, with the ILA expressing concerns over automation as a potential threat to their employment. If these discussions do not resolve these contentious issues, there is still a risk of a strike occurring in the first quarter of 2025. These developments highlight ongoing tensions that could impact U.S. ports and the broader supply chain.”
Fact-checking news summary:
Based on the summary provided, here is a list of specific facts along with their verification and relevance to the outcome (probability of a strike in Q1 2025):
1. **Fact:** The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) have reached a tentative agreement.
– **Check:** True. This is consistent with the scenario described, where both parties reached an agreement to temporarily avert a strike.
– **Relevance:** True. The agreement directly impacts the likelihood of a strike.
2. **Fact:** The agreement includes a 62% wage increase over six years.
– **Check:** True. The percentage specified is consistent within the context provided.
– **Relevance:** True. This wage increase is a significant part of the agreement affecting the satisfaction of the workers.
3. **Fact:** The agreement temporarily averts a potential strike.
– **Check:** True. If an agreement is reached, it typically avoids an immediate strike.
– **Relevance:** True. It directly relates to the probability of a strike occurring in Q1 2025.
4. **Fact:** Key issues related to automation and job security remain unresolved.
– **Check:** True. The summary indicates these issues are still a concern and are to be negotiated.
– **Relevance:** True. These unresolved issues could lead to a strike if not addressed satisfactorily.
5. **Fact:** Negotiations are set to resume on January 15, 2025.
– **Check:** True. This is consistent with the information given.
– **Relevance:** True. The outcome of these negotiations will influence the likelihood of a strike in Q1 2025.
6. **Fact:** The ILA is expressing concerns over automation as a potential threat to their employment.
– **Check:** True. Concerns over automation are specifically mentioned in the summary.
– **Relevance:** True. Concerns over employment threats are central to the potential for labor unrest.
7. **Fact:** There is still a risk of a strike occurring in the first quarter of 2025 if discussions do not resolve these contentious issues.
– **Check:** True. This is consistent with the scenario that unresolved issues could lead to a strike.
– **Relevance:** True. This statement directly addresses the question regarding the probability of a strike.
8. **Fact:** These developments highlight ongoing tensions that could impact U.S. ports and the broader supply chain.
– **Check:** True. The summary suggests ongoing issues that affect more than just the immediate parties involved.
– **Relevance:** True. The impact on supply chains is relevant because it adds pressure to resolve issues or risk further disruptions.
Each of these facts is verified to be consistent and relevant to assessing the probability of a strike occurring in Q1 2025.
Fact-checked summary:
The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) have reached a tentative agreement, including a 62% wage increase over six years, which temporarily averts a potential strike. However, key issues related to automation and job security remain unresolved, and concerns about automation as a threat to employment persist. Negotiations to address these issues are set to resume on January 15, 2025. If these discussions do not successfully resolve the contentious issues, there is still a risk of a strike occurring in the first quarter of 2025. These developments highlight ongoing tensions that could impact U.S. ports and the broader supply chain.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.25
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate is influenced by the historical frequency of strikes in the maritime industry when negotiations fail, along with the current context that significant issues like automation and job security remain unresolved. Although wage negotiations have reached a tentative agreement, strikes often occur over unresolved key issues. The likelihood of unresolved issues leading to a strike typically varies; however, given the industry context and potential impact on supply chains, as well as past occurrences in similar contexts, a cautious approach is warranted. Additionally, with negotiations set to resume soon and a tentative agreement in place, there is a stronger likelihood of resolution without a strike, thus reducing the base rate somewhat.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Negotiations between the ILA and USMX resume as scheduled on January 15, 2025. (Highly likely)
– Both parties fail to resolve key issues related to automation and job security during negotiations. (About as likely as not)
– The ILA membership rejects the tentative agreement or the proposed resolution after January 15, 2025, discussions. (About as likely as not) – ILA leadership calls for a strike action post-negotiation breakdown. (Unlikely)
– Drug smuggling operations are impacted by updated port security measures. (Unlikely)
Querying Perplexity (Error: Perplexity is not returning an array)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 7)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.3 – confidence: 6)
Median from LLMs: 0.35
Base rate: 0.25 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.02
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.29
Reverse Mellers: 0.4
Theory of Mind: 0.45 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.001
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Model value (not submitted): 0.35
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI.
A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The consensus among the AI analyses revolves around the tentative wage agreement reached, which has substantially reduced the immediate risk of a strike, despite ongoing concerns about automation and job security. Historically, in the maritime industry, significant wage settlements have led to non-wage issues like automation being resolved through negotiations rather than strikes. Nonetheless, the looming January 15, 2025, negotiations are pivotal due to unresolved issues that may slightly increase the likelihood of a strike despite the current goodwill generated by the wage increase. Automation remains a potential flashpoint due to its significant impact on job security, despite the salary agreement, and external factors such as economic conditions and political pressures could further influence outcomes. However, a breakthrough in negotiations or external interventions could avert the potential for strikes, maintaining stability in port operations.
Runtime: 110 seconds.
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Bots vs Staff Forecasts
BestWorld’s staff of Brian LaBatte and Carolyn Meinel are forecasting the US Steel/Nippon Steel Merger in competition with Jeremy’s Multri-AI Oracle. Their version has two sub-questions:
(1) Will the US Steel / Nippon Steel merger be approved by the White House before Jan. 21. 2025?” Brian’s latest forecast is 80%; Carolyn’s is 70%. Michael’s is 35%.
(2) If yes, when will US Steel investors relations announce the final outcome of the acquisition with Nippon Steel?
a. Before November 5, 2024
b. Between November 6 and December 31, 2024
c. January 1 to 20, 2024
d. After January 21, 2024
Brian’s latest forecasts are 0%, 20%, 20%, and 60%.
Carolyn’s are 0%, 20%, 20%, and 60%.
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Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports
Median from the bestworldbots: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
