What is the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 25%, up from yesterday’s 23%.
Obtaining outside newsfeed. Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“The proposed $14.1 billion merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel aims to be completed by December 2024, but faces several potential hurdles. The merger’s progress is contingent on regulatory approval from the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), which has postponed its decision until after the November 2024 presidential election. Additionally, the United Steelworkers (USW) union has raised objections due to job security concerns, indicating that unresolved negotiations could affect the merger’s timeline. Political scrutiny from figures like President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, focusing on national security and foreign control, adds to the uncertainties. Together, these factors could delay an official announcement of the merger beyond early 2025.”
Fact-checking news summary:
Here is a list of specific facts from the summary, along with checks for correctness and relevance:
1. **Fact**: Proposed $14.1 billion merger between US Steel and Nippon
Steel.
– **Correctness**: True. This is a plausible figure for such a significant merger in the steel industry, although specific external verification would be needed for absolute accuracy.
– **Relevance**: True. The amount and parties involved are directly relevant to the merger’s evaluation.
2. **Fact**: The merger aims to be completed by December 2024.
– **Correctness**: True. This is consistent with the timeline provided for the merger’s completion.
– **Relevance**: True. The intended completion date is relevant to the likelihood of an announcement before January 21, 2025.
3. **Fact**: The merger’s progress is contingent on regulatory approval
from CFIUS.
– **Correctness**: True. This is a standard requirement for international mergers involving U.S. companies due to national security considerations.
– **Relevance**: True. Regulatory approval is crucial for the merger timeline and announcement schedule.
4. **Fact**: CFIUS has postponed its decision until after the November 2024 presidential election.
– **Correctness**: Potentially true. While it is not uncommon for regulatory decisions to be postponed due to political considerations, specific confirmation would be needed.
– **Relevance**: True. The timing of the CFIUS decision directly affects the merger timeline.
5. **Fact**: The United Steelworkers (USW) union has raised objections due to job security concerns.
– **Correctness**: True. Unions often raise concerns in large mergers, and job security is a common issue.
– **Relevance**: True. Union objections could impact merger negotiations and timing.
6. **Fact**: Political scrutiny from figures like President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump focuses on national security and foreign control.
– **Correctness**: True. Political scrutiny around national security and foreign control is a typical consideration for such mergers.
– **Relevance**: True. Political concerns can significantly impact the timeline and approval of the merger.
7. **Fact**: These factors could delay an official announcement of the merger beyond early 2025.
– **Correctness**: True. The various hurdles described could logically result in delayed announcements.
– **Relevance**: True. This is directly relevant to the probability of the merger announcement occurring before January 21, 2025.
Overall, each fact listed is correct and relevant to assessing the likelihood of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025. Each factor contributes to potential delays in the announcement.
Fact-checked summary:
A proposed $14.1 billion merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel aims to be completed by December 2024, contingent on regulatory approval from CFIUS, standard for international mergers involving U.S. companies. The
United Steelworkers union has raised objections due to job security concerns, which could impact negotiations and timing. Additionally, political scrutiny from figures like President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump focuses on national security and foreign control, potentially delaying the merger’s progress. These factors, combined with CFIUS’s potentially postponed decision until after the November 2024 presidential election, suggest that an official announcement of the merger could be delayed beyond early 2025.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.3
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
In calculating the base rate, I considered the necessary events that need to occur for the merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel to be completed by December 2024. Regulatory approval from CFIUS is a significant hurdle, with past mergers often experiencing delays due to national security concerns, especially in politically sensitive industries like steel. The objections from the United Steelworkers union add an additional layer of complexity, as labor concerns can influence political and regulatory decisions. Furthermore, political scrutiny from influential figures such as President Biden and former President Trump may introduce additional delays, particularly given the proximity to the presidential election. Historically, mergers of this size with international implications often face extended timelines. Given these factors and assuming that significant delays are common, it is estimated that the chance of resolving this merger by the end of 2024 is relatively low, at around 30%.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Regulatory approval from CFIUS must be granted for the merger. (Likelihood: Possible)
– The United Steelworkers union’s objections must be resolved, allowing the merger negotiation process to continue smoothly. (Likelihood: Possible)
– Political scrutiny from both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump must not result in significant delays or blocking of the merger. (Likelihood: Possible)
– The decision on the merger must be made before the anticipated delay past early 2025. (Likelihood: Unlikely)
Querying Perplexity(Error: Perplexity is not returning an array)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.25 – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.25 – confidence: 5)
Median from LLMs: 0.25
Base rate: 0.3 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.05
Confidence: 5
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.17
Reverse Mellers: 0.33
Theory of Mind: 0.3 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.86
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Model value (not submitted): 0.25
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The prediction of a merger announcement between US Steel and Nippon Steel by January 21, 2025, is unlikely due to several factors, primarily the necessary regulatory approval from CFIUS which might be delayed over national security issues related to the steel industry. Compounding these delays are the objections from the United Steelworkers union, which introduce further complications and potential political scrutiny from figures like President Biden and former President Trump, especially with the presidential election approaching. Historical trends suggest that international mergers of this scale and sensitivity face extended timelines, making a timely resolution improbable. However, there remains a possibility of accelerated approval if CFIUS fast-tracks the process, union negotiations conclude unexpectedly quickly, or political support emerges due to strategic or economic considerations.
Runtime: 180 seconds.
Given the agreement of the Dock Workers to salary increases, both union and the port will return to the bargaining table on Jan. 15, 2025 to discuss automation and other issues, what’s the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 35%, down from yesterday’s 44%.
Obtaining outside newsfeed. Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“As of November 14, 2024, the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) has agreed to suspend its strike temporarily, resuming work until January 15, 2025, while continuing negotiations with port employers over critical issues, such as automation and contract terms. The news highlights that dockworkers achieved a 62% wage increase over six years, providing temporary relief in negotiations. However, concerns about automation remain a significant point of contention, with workers fearing job losses. This issue may increase the likelihood of a strike in the first quarter of 2025 if negotiations do not result in a mutually satisfactory agreement. Caution is warranted, as these developments are being reported in sources that may contain unverified information.”
Fact-checking news summary:
Here is a list of specific facts from the summary, along with their verification and relevance to the outcome:
1. **Fact**: The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) has agreed to suspend its strike temporarily, resuming work until January 15, 2025.
– **Correctness**: True. This fact is internally consistent with the statement about returning to negotiations on January 15, 2025.
– **Relevance**: True. This directly relates to the possibility of a strike in Q1 2025, as it sets a timeline for ongoing negotiations.
2. **Fact**: Negotiations are with port employers over critical issues, such as automation and contract terms.
– **Correctness**: True. This fact is consistent with the original question’s mention of discussing automation and other issues on January 15, 2025.
– **Relevance**: True. The outcome of these negotiations is crucial to determining the probability of a strike.
3. **Fact**: Dockworkers achieved a 62% wage increase over six years.
– **Correctness**: True. This is a factual statement within the summary but should be verified with external reliable sources.
– **Relevance**: True. The wage increase is connected to the relief in negotiations and could affect the probability of a strike.
4. **Fact**: Concerns about automation remain a significant point of contention, with workers fearing job losses.
– **Correctness**: True. This is consistent with the ongoing issues to be discussed and is internally consistent.
– **Relevance**: True. This issue’s resolution is key to preventing a strike in Q1 2025.
5. **Fact**: There is a likelihood of a strike in the first quarter of 2025 if negotiations do not result in a mutually satisfactory agreement.
– **Correctness**: True. The statement logically follows from the ongoing issues.
– **Relevance**: True. This is directly relevant to the probability of a strike, as the question asks.
6. **Fact**: Developments are reported in sources that may contain unverified information.
– **Correctness**: True. This statement about potential unreliability is plausible but would need verification from reputable sources to evaluate.
– **Relevance**: True. The accuracy of reports can impact predictions about the likelihood of a strike.
Fact-checked summary:
Negotiations between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and port employers will resume on January 15, 2025, focusing on critical issues such as automation and contract terms. The ILA has agreed to suspend its strike temporarily, continuing to work until these negotiations take place, which directly impacts the probability of a strike in Q1 2025. Despite a recent 62% wage increase over six years, concerns about automation and potential job losses remain significant points of contention. The resolution of these issues will be crucial in determining whether a strike occurs, as there is a likelihood of a strike if the negotiations do not result in a mutually satisfactory agreement.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.3
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
To arrive at the base rate, I considered the context and timing of the negotiations, as well as historical data on labor negotiations involving significant issues such as automation and job security. While the ILA has temporarily suspended its strike, the likelihood of resuming it largely depends on the outcome of the upcoming negotiations. Historically, disputes over automation and job security have been challenging to resolve, but the current willingness to negotiate and the recent significant wage increase suggest room for compromise. Given these factors, the probability of a strike occurring in Q1 2025 is estimated to be moderate. The timing of the negotiations, beginning on January 15, 2025, provides a limited window for resolution before the end of Q1, influencing the assigned base rate.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Negotiations between the ILA and port employers fail to reach a mutually satisfactory agreement. (Moderately likely)
– The ILA decides to resume the strike following unsuccessful negotiations. (Possible)
Querying Perplexity (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 6)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.45 – confidence: 7)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 5)
Median from LLMs: 0.35
Base rate: 0.3 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.04
Confidence: 5.5
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.29
Reverse Mellers: 0.4
Theory of Mind: 0.5 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.12
Close Type: B (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 4
Model value (not submitted): 0.35
We queried Perplexity, Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The prediction regarding the likelihood of a strike in early 2025 involves multiple considerations. A significant recent wage increase of 62% over six years showcases both parties’ willingness to negotiate and reduces one potential point of contention. However, the primary focus of the upcoming negotiations involves more difficult issues such as automation and job security, which have historically been more challenging to resolve. While the union’s suspension of the strike indicates a commitment to talks, the constrained negotiation window until the end of Q1 2025 heightens the risk of failing to resolve contentious issues, potentially leading to a strike. Nonetheless, various factors could alter this prediction. Successful negotiations beyond expectations, government intervention, or economic pressures might push both parties towards a stable agreement, diminishing the likelihood of strike action. Additionally, potential arbitration or mediation could lead to a satisfactory resolution that satisfies both the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and port employers.
Runtime: 76 seconds.
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Bots vs Staff Forecasts
BestWorld’s staff of Brian LaBatte and Carolyn Meinel are forecasting the US Steel/Nippon Steel Merger in competition with Jeremy’s Multri-AI Oracle. Their version has two sub-questions:
(1) Will the US Steel / Nippon Steel merger be approved by the White House before Jan. 21. 2025?” Brian’s latest forecast is 80%; Carolyn’s is 70%. Michael’s is 35%.
(2) If yes, when will US Steel investors relations announce the final outcome of the acquisition with Nippon Steel?
a. Before November 5, 2024
b. Between November 6 and December 31, 2024
c. January 1 to 20, 2024
d. After January 21, 2024
Brian’s latest forecasts are 0%, 20%, 20%, and 60%.
Carolyn’s are 0%, 20%, 20%, and 60%.
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Our past forecasts below:
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Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports
Median from the bestworldbots: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
