What is the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 35%, up from 15% yesterday.
Obtaining outside newsfeed. Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“The proposed merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel, valued at $15 billion, is facing significant obstacles, including regulatory opposition from both the Biden administration and President-elect Trump over concerns related to national security and U.S. employment. The United Steelworkers union also opposes the merger, further complicating the process. Despite these challenges, Nippon Steel is optimistic about completing the merger by the end of 2024 and has pledged to invest $3 billion in U.S. facilities as an effort to reassure stakeholders about job security. Nonetheless, the timeline for a final decision remains uncertain due to ongoing resistance from political leaders and labor unions.”
Fact-checking news summary:
Here is a list of specific facts from the summary with their respective accuracy and relevance to the outcome:
1. **Fact**: The proposed merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel is valued at $15 billion.
– **Correct (True/False)**: True, assuming the valuation is mentioned correctly in current reports.
– **Relevant (True/False)**: True, as the valuation is relevant to the merger’s complexity and scale.
2. **Fact**: The merger is facing significant obstacles, including regulatory opposition from both the Biden administration and President-elect Trump.
– **Correct (True/False)**: False, internally inconsistent. The phrase “President-elect Trump” conflicts with “Biden administration” since both cannot be in power simultaneously. Also, as of October 2023, Trump is not President-elect. [Editor’s comment: here, bestworldbot is obviously in error]
– **Relevant (True/False)**: True, opposition from regulatory bodies is relevant to the merger’s probability.
3. **Fact**: There are concerns related to national security and U.S. employment.
– **Correct (True/False)**: True, as mergers involving major steel companies can raise these concerns.
– **Relevant (True/False)**: True, since these concerns directly impact the likelihood of regulatory approval.
4. **Fact**: The United Steelworkers union opposes the merger.
– **Correct (True/False)**: True, assuming current union positions reflect this statement.
– **Relevant (True/False)**: True, as union opposition affects the merger’s feasibility.
5. **Fact**: Nippon Steel is optimistic about completing the merger by the end of 2024.
– **Correct (True/False)**: True, if Nippon Steel has officially expressed this optimism.
– **Relevant (True/False)**: True, as their confidence and timeline directly relate to the merger’s timing probability.
6. **Fact**: Nippon Steel has pledged to invest $3 billion in U.S. facilities.
– **Correct (True/False)**: True, if Nippon Steel has made such a commitment publicly.
– **Relevant (True/False)**: True, since this investment may influence stakeholders and regulatory bodies.
7. **Fact**: The timeline for a final decision remains uncertain due to ongoing resistance from political leaders and labor unions.
– **Correct (True/False)**: True, given the multiple oppositions outlined in the summary.
– **Relevant (True/False)**: True, as the uncertainty in timeline affects the probability of the announcement by January 21, 2025.
Overall, despite some internal inconsistencies, most facts provided are relevant to assessing the probability of the merger’s official announcement before the specified date.
Fact-checked summary:
The proposed merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel is valued at $15 billion, and it faces several significant challenges that could impact its announcement before January 21, 2025. There are concerns related to national security and U.S. employment, both of which are relevant to the likelihood of gaining regulatory approval. The United Steelworkers union opposes the merger, adding another layer of complexity to its feasibility. Despite these challenges, Nippon Steel is optimistic about completing the merger by the end of 2024, reflecting their confidence in overcoming these obstacles. Additionally, Nippon Steel has pledged to invest $3 billion in U.S. facilities, which may influence key stakeholders and regulatory bodies favorably. However, the timeline for a final decision remains uncertain due to ongoing resistance from political leaders and labor unions, affecting the probability of the merger being officially announced by the specified date.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.3
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate considers the complexity and challenges of large mergers, particularly involving cross-border entities. Historically, such mergers face significant scrutiny, especially with national security and employment concerns. The investment pledge by Nippon Steel could sway some opinions, but the union opposition and political resistance create substantial barriers. Considering the time frame until January 21, 2025, and current challenges, there’s a moderate but not insignificant chance of the necessary conditions being met. Thus, the base rate for this merger being announced by the specified date is modest, at 30%.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:– Regulatory approval by relevant U.S. and international bodies is secured. (Likelihood: About Even, due to national security and employment concerns.)
– Nippon Steel successfully addresses concerns raised by the United Steelworkers union. (Likelihood: Roughly Even, given the union’s opposition and the pledge to invest $3 billion.)
– Political resistance is overcome, allowing for an announcement. (Likelihood: Less Likely Than Not, as ongoing resistance from political leaders persists.)
Querying Perplexity(Error: Perplexity is not returning an array)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.25 – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 5)
Median from LLMs: 0.35
Base rate: 0.3 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.05
Confidence: 5
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.29
Reverse Mellers: 0.4
Theory of Mind: 0.4 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.14
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Model value (not submitted): 0.35
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews). A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The proposed merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel faces numerous challenges, primarily centered around regulatory approval due to national security and employment concerns, union opposition, and political resistance. Despite these hurdles, Nippon Steel’s $3 billion investment pledge might influence stakeholder support and expedite the approval process, fueled by potential geopolitical incentives for stronger US-Japan economic ties. While the timeline to complete the merger by January 21, 2025, appears constrained, especially against historical precedents of extended merger timelines in strategic industries, Nippon Steel’s optimism and possible behind-the-scenes negotiations could alter this outlook. However, the merger’s complexities, including the $15 billion valuation and significant resistance, suggest modest likelihood for resolution within the given timeframe.
Runtime: 89 seconds.
Given the agreement of the Dock Workers to salary increases, both union and the port will return to the bargaining table on Jan. 15, 2025 to discuss automation and other issues, what’s the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 40%, down from 60% yesterday.
Obtaining outside newsfeed. Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“As of November 19, 2024, the dock workers’ situation involves a tentative agreement between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX), which includes a 62% salary increase over six years, with further negotiations set for January 15, 2025, particularly regarding automation. Despite the recent resolution ending a three-day strike, there remains a concern for potential future strikes if automation issues and the preservation of jobs are not satisfactorily addressed in upcoming discussions. The unresolved issues reflect ongoing tensions, suggesting a possibility of additional labor actions in Q1 2025 if the negotiations do not meet the workers’ demands.”
Fact-checking news summary:
Here is a list of factual statements extracted from the summary, along with assessments of their correctness and relevance:
1. **Fact:** The dock workers have a tentative agreement with a 62% salary increase over six years.
– **Correctness:** True. A tentative agreement typically means a provisional agreement pending final approval, which can include specified salary increases.
– **Relevance to Outcome (Probability of Strike):** True. The salary increase could influence workers’ willingness to strike, although it primarily addresses economic concerns rather than automation issues.
2. **Fact:** The agreement is between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX).
– **Correctness:** True. These are the known parties typically involved in such agreements concerning dock workers.
– **Relevance to Outcome (Probability of Strike):** True. The parties involved are central to negotiations and subsequent actions like strikes.
3. **Fact:** Further negotiations are set for January 15, 2025, particularly regarding automation.
– **Correctness:** True. The specific date and focus on automation issues are directly mentioned.
– **Relevance to Outcome (Probability of Strike):** True. Discussions on automation are critical as they directly relate to job security, influencing the likelihood of a strike.
4. **Fact:** There was a recent resolution ending a three-day strike.
– **Correctness:** True. The summary indicates a recent strike lasting three days, which was resolved.
– **Relevance to Outcome (Probability of Strike):** True. A recently ended strike points to existing tensions and unresolved issues that could lead to further strikes.
5. **Fact:** There is concern for potential future strikes if automation issues and job preservation are not satisfactorily addressed.
– **Correctness:** True. Concerns about unresolved issues like automation and job security logically suggest possible future labor actions.
– **Relevance to Outcome (Probability of Strike):** True. These issues are central to determining the likelihood of a strike in Q1 2025.
6. **Fact:** The unresolved issues reflect ongoing tensions suggesting a possibility of additional labor actions in Q1 2025.
– **Correctness:** True. Unresolved issues and ongoing tensions are common indicators of potential labor unrest.
– **Relevance to Outcome (Probability of Strike):** True. The presence of unresolved issues and ongoing tensions is directly relevant to assessing the probability of a strike.
Overall, the facts in the summary are consistent and relevant to assessing the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
Fact-checked summary:
Following the tentative agreement involving a 62% salary increase over six years between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX), further negotiations are scheduled for January 15, 2025, to address automation and other critical issues. This agreement directly tackles economic concerns, which could reduce the probability of a strike. However, unresolved issues surrounding automation and job security remain significant points of tension, suggesting the potential for future labor actions. The recent resolution ending a three-day strike highlights existing tensions, underscoring the possibility of additional strikes if these essential matters are not adequately addressed in the upcoming negotiations.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.4
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate is influenced by both the recent agreement indicating progress towards economic stability and the ongoing tensions around automation and job security. Historically, labor negotiations, especially after initial agreements on salary, show mixed outcomes; successful negotiations on more contentious issues like automation often have a lower probability of smooth resolution. The recent strike resolution is a positive sign, but unresolved key concerns suggest that further disruptions are possible. With a little under two months remaining, the proximity of the next round of negotiations leaves limited time for pre-negotiation groundwork, hence the cautious estimate. The 40% chance reflects both the progress made and the significant challenges ahead.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Successful resolution of issues related to automation during the January 15, 2025, negotiations (Moderate likelihood)
– Addressing job security concerns adequately in the upcoming negotiations (Low likelihood) – Continued willingness from both USMX and ILA to compromise on critical issues (Moderate likelihood)
Querying Perplexity(Error: Perplexity is not returning an array)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.65 – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.4 – confidence: 6)
Median from LLMs: 0.4
Base rate: 0.4 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.13
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.36
Reverse Mellers: 0.43
Theory of Mind: 0.5 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.49
Close Type: B (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Model value (not submitted): 0.4
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews). A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The AI predictions revolve around the potential for labor disruptions in the context of recent and upcoming negotiations. While the recent significant salary increase could potentially reduce motivations for immediate industrial actions, unresolved issues regarding automation and job security, which historically have been contentious, remain key points of concern. The short timeframe for upcoming negotiations and recent strike activity highlight ongoing tensions that could lead to further labor actions if these issues are not effectively addressed. Conversely, factors such as improved goodwill from recent salary agreements, a shared aversion to further disruption, and possible external economic pressures or pre-negotiation agreements could sway the negotiations towards a smoother resolution. Overall, while tensions remain high, there are scenarios in which these might be mitigated, especially if both parties are incentivized to reach compromises.
Runtime: 90 seconds
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Bots vs Staff Forecasts
BestWorld’s staff of Brian LaBatte and Carolyn Meinel are forecasting the US Steel/Nippon Steel Merger in competition with Jeremy’s Multri-AI Oracle. Their version has two sub-questions:
(1) Will the US Steel / Nippon Steel merger be approved by the White House before Jan. 21. 2025?” Brian’s latest forecast is 80%; Carolyn’s is 70%. Michael’s is 35%.
(2) If yes, when will US Steel investors relations announce the final outcome of the acquisition with Nippon Steel?
a. Before November 5, 2024
b. Between November 6 and December 31, 2024
c. January 1 to 20, 2024
d. After January 21, 2024
Brian’s latest forecasts are 0%, 20%, 20%, and 60%.
Carolyn’s are 0%, 20%, 20%, and 60%.
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Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports
Median from the bestworldbots: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
