What is the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 15%, down from 25% Friday.
Obtaining outside newsfeed. Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“The potential acquisition of US Steel by Nippon Steel is facing multiple challenges, including opposition from political leaders, scrutiny from regulatory bodies regarding national security and employment impact, and resistance from the United Steelworkers (USW) union over potential job losses. Nippon Steel remains optimistic about completing the acquisition by the end of 2024 but acknowledges these obstacles, which could affect its timeline and official announcement. The deal has drawn bipartisan concerns in the US about foreign control of a major domestic steel producer, adding to the complexity of gaining necessary approvals.”
Fact-checking news summary: Here’s a list of specific facts from the summary, along with an analysis for correctness and relevance:
1. **Fact:** The potential acquisition of US Steel by Nippon Steel is facing multiple challenges.
– **Correct?** True. It is reasonable to assume that such a significant acquisition would face challenges, including political and regulatory hurdles.
– **Relevant to the outcome?** True. Challenges can directly affect the timeline and probability of the merger being announced.
2. **Fact:** There is opposition from political leaders to the acquisition.
– **Correct?** True. Large international mergers, especially involving critical industries like steel, often face political opposition.
– **Relevant to the outcome?** True. Political opposition can delay or prevent the merger from being approved or finalized.
3. **Fact:** There is scrutiny from regulatory bodies regarding national security and employment impact.
– **Correct?** True. Regulations are commonly concerned with national security and employment, particularly for cross-border acquisitions involving strategic industries.
– **Relevant to the outcome?** True. Regulatory scrutiny is crucial in the approval process for such mergers, impacting their announcement and completion timeline.
4. **Fact:** There is resistance from the United Steelworkers (USW) union over potential job losses.
– **Correct?** True. Labor unions typically resist mergers that might result in job losses for their members.
– **Relevant to the outcome?** True. Union resistance can influence public opinion, political pressure, and regulatory review, affecting the merger’s progress.
5. **Fact:** Nippon Steel remains optimistic about completing the acquisition by the end of 2024.
– **Correct?** True. Companies often express optimism about completing deals, despite the challenges.
– **Relevant to the outcome?** True. The timeline of the deal is directly tied to whether it will be announced before January 21, 2025.
6. **Fact:** The deal has drawn bipartisan concerns in the US about foreign control of a major domestic steel producer.
– **Correct?** True. Bipartisan concerns are plausible for a merger involving a major domestic industry and foreign ownership.
– **Relevant to the outcome?** True. Bipartisan concerns can impact political decision-making and regulatory reviews involved in the merger’s approval process.
Each fact is marked as both correct and relevant, as they all plausibly relate to the question of whether the merger might be officially announced before the specified date.
Fact-checked summary:
The potential acquisition of US Steel by Nippon Steel is facing multiple challenges, which could affect the probability of the merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025. These challenges include opposition from political leaders, regulatory scrutiny over national security and employment impact, and resistance from the United Steelworkers (USW) union concerned about potential job losses. Additionally, the merger has drawn bipartisan concerns in the US about foreign control of a major domestic steel producer. Despite these hurdles, Nippon Steel remains optimistic about completing the acquisition by the end of 2024. These factors play a significant role in shaping the timeline and probability of the merger’s announcement.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.2
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate is derived from historical examples of large foreign acquisitions of US companies facing similar challenges, where regulatory and political hurdles commonly arise. The combination of political opposition, regulatory scrutiny, and union resistance significantly lowers the probability of resolving the question as ‘Yes’. Given the time constraint before January 21, 2025, and considering Nippon Steel’s optimism, the likelihood remains low unless significant progress in addressing these challenges occurs swiftly. Historically, deals of this nature often face delays and require extensive negotiations, impacting the likelihood provided.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Political leaders’ opposition must be effectively addressed, with a likelihood of this occurring being unlikely.
– Regulatory scrutiny must be overcome, which could involve ensuring national security and employment impacts are satisfactorily resolved, with a likelihood of this occurring being possible.
– United Steelworkers union (USW) concerns must be appeased, likely through negotiations to minimize job losses, with a likelihood of this occurring being uncertain.
– Bipartisan concerns about foreign control over US Steel need to be mitigated, with a likelihood of this occurring being unlikely.
Querying Perplexity(Error: Perplexity is not returning an array)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.25 – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 5)
Median from LLMs: 0.15
Base rate: 0.2 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.05
Confidence: 5
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.07
Reverse Mellers: 0.24
Theory of Mind: 0.3 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.86
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Model value (not submitted): 0.15
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews). A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The consensus among the AIs is that the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger faces significant barriers to being announced by January 21, 2025. These barriers include strong political opposition and bipartisan concerns about foreign ownership of a strategic US asset, regulatory scrutiny related to national security and employment impacts, and resistance from the United Steelworkers union due to job loss concerns. Historical precedents for similar acquisitions, particularly those involving foreign entities, have low success rates when confronted with such challenges. Despite Nippon Steel’s expressed optimism and potential behind-the-scenes efforts to address these issues, the compressed timeline of approximately two months makes it unlikely that all these hurdles will be overcome quickly. However, there is an acknowledgment that unforeseen political or economic developments could potentially alter the situation in favor of the merger, enabling a faster resolution than anticipated.
Runtime: 161 seconds..
Given the agreement of the Dock Workers to salary increases, both union and the port will return to the bargaining table on Jan. 15, 2025 to discuss automation and other issues, what’s the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 60%, up from 35% Friday.
Obtaining outside newsfeed. Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“As of November 17, 2024, negotiations between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the US Maritime Alliance (USMX) have resulted in a temporary suspension of a dockworkers’ strike, with an agreement to continue work until January 15, 2025. The primary issues in negotiation are related to wages and the extent of automation, with the ILA advocating for automation that safeguards jobs and USMX pushing for greater industry efficiency through technological progress. While an agreement is in place, the potential for a strike remains high if the negotiations do not resolve these contentious issues by the January deadline. Observers anticipate that unresolved matters could lead to renewed labor actions, indicating that the situation is still evolving and requires careful monitoring as both parties prepare for critical discussions.”
Fact-checking news summary: Here is a list of specific facts from the summary, along with a check of
their correctness and relevance to the original question:
1. **Fact**: As of November 17, 2024, negotiations between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the US Maritime Alliance (USMX) have resulted in a temporary suspension of a dockworkers’ strike.
– Correctness: True (Assumes hypothetical context is accurate within summary).
– Relevance: True (Directly related to the potential for a strike).
2. **Fact**: There is an agreement to continue work until January 15, 2025.
– Correctness: True (Assumes hypothetical context is accurate within summary).
– Relevance: True (Directly related to the potential for a strike).
3. **Fact**: The primary issues in negotiation are related to wages and the extent of automation.
– Correctness: True (Assumes hypothetical context is accurate within summary).
– Relevance: True (Addresses the factors involved in the negotiation, which impact the potential for a strike).
4. **Fact**: The ILA is advocating for automation that safeguards jobs.
– Correctness: True (Common position taken by unions; context assumed accurate).
– Relevance: True (Linked to negotiating issues that affect strike risk).
5. **Fact**: The USMX is pushing for greater industry efficiency through technological progress.
– Correctness: True (Common position taken by industry alliances; context assumed accurate).
– Relevance: True (Linked to negotiating issues that affect strike risk).
6. **Fact**: While an agreement is in place, the potential for a strike remains high if the negotiations do not resolve these contentious issues by the January deadline.
– Correctness: True (Reasonable interpretation of negotiation context).
– Relevance: True (Directly relevant to the potential for a strike, addressing the probability aspect of the original question).
7. **Fact**: Observers anticipate that unresolved matters could lead to renewed labor actions.
– Correctness: True (Assumes hypothetical context is accurate; reasonable given context).
– Relevance: True (Pertains to the potential for a strike).
8. **Fact**: The situation is still evolving and requires careful monitoring as both parties prepare for critical discussions.
– Correctness: True (Reflects an ongoing negotiation process; context assumed accurate).
– Relevance: True (Indicates dynamism in the situation that affects strike probability).
All identified facts within the hypothetical context of the summary are consistent and relevant to assessing the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
Fact-checked summary:
Negotiations between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the US Maritime Alliance (USMX) have resulted in a temporary suspension of a dockworkers’ strike, with an agreement to continue work until January 15, 2025. The ongoing negotiations are focused on issues related to wages and the extent of automation, with the ILA advocating to safeguard jobs through automation, while the USMX is pushing for greater industry efficiency through technological progress. Although an agreement to resume work is in place, the potential for a strike remains significant if these contentious issues are not resolved by the January deadline. Observers anticipate that unresolved matters could lead to renewed labor actions, highlighting the evolving nature of the situation and the need for careful monitoring as both parties prepare for critical discussions.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.4
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate of 0.4 accounts for the historical outcomes of similar negotiations and disputes, which often have moderate chances of resolution without a strike. The ongoing suspension indicates a willingness from both parties to negotiate. However, the contentious issues of wages and automation, coupled with the significant time pressure until January 15, 2025, increase the risk of a strike if not adequately addressed. Previous labor negotiations in this sector have shown mixed outcomes, with some reaching agreements and others leading to strikes. The combination of these factors, along with the time-sensitivity of current discussions, suggests a lower than average probability of a strike being fully avoided by the deadline.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Successful resolution of wage negotiation issues between ILA and USMX by January 15, 2025 (Moderate likelihood)
– Agreement on a mutually acceptable level of automation that balances job safeguarding with industry efficiency (Low likelihood)
– Avoidance of any significant breakdowns in communication during the negotiation process (Moderate likelihood)
Querying Perplexity(Error: Perplexity is not returning an array)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.65 – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.65 – confidence: 7)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 6)
Median from LLMs: 0.65
Base rate: 0.4 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.14
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.71
Reverse Mellers: 0.6
Theory of Mind: 0.5 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.03
Close Type: B (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Model value (not submitted): 0.6
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews). A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The negotiations between the International Longshoremen’s Association and the US Maritime Alliance present a complex scenario, primarily due to deep-seated issues such as automation which have historically been contentious and prone to causing strikes. There is a temporary suspension of strike action, indicating willingness to negotiate, although tensions remain high due to the short timeframe of negotiations set to resume by January 15, 2025. Positive elements like successful wage agreements could facilitate further compromises, albeit under the pressure of heightened winter shipping demands which might enhance union leverage. However, there are also significant internal and external factors such as economic pressures, potential government intervention, and political dynamics that could sway the outcome, either averting or precipitating a strike. The complex interplay of these factors suggests a moderate risk of a strike occurring, contingent on how these negotiations progress and whether compromises can be reached on the contentious issue of automation.
Runtime: 163 seconds.
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Bots vs Staff Forecasts
BestWorld’s staff of Brian LaBatte and Carolyn Meinel are forecasting the US Steel/Nippon Steel Merger in competition with Jeremy’s Multri-AI Oracle. Their version has two sub-questions:
(1) Will the US Steel / Nippon Steel merger be approved by the White House before Jan. 21. 2025?” Brian’s latest forecast is 80%; Carolyn’s is 70%. Michael’s is 35%.
(2) If yes, when will US Steel investors relations announce the final outcome of the acquisition with Nippon Steel?
a. Before November 5, 2024
b. Between November 6 and December 31, 2024
c. January 1 to 20, 2024
d. After January 21, 2024
Brian’s latest forecasts are 0%, 20%, 20%, and 60%.
Carolyn’s are 0%, 20%, 20%, and 60%.
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Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports
Median from the bestworldbots: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
