What is the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 15%, down from 25% yesterday.
Obtaining outside newsfeed. Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“The potential merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel, valued at $14.9 billion, faces significant challenges and uncertainty regarding its completion by December 2024. Although Nippon Steel is eager to finalize the acquisition, the US government has yet to approve it, largely due to political and security concerns that have intensified following the recent US presidential election. President Joe Biden’s administration, along with bipartisan entities, has expressed strong opposition, citing issues related to national and job security. Contrarily, some workers at US Steel support the merger, anticipating benefits such as job preservation and investment in unionized plants in Pennsylvania and Indiana. Meanwhile, Nippon Steel’s negotiations with the United Steelworkers union persist, with optimism conveyed by their vice president, Takahiro Mori. Despite these ongoing discussions, the probability of an official announcement before January 21, 2025, remains uncertain amidst these complex regulatory and political hurdles.”
Fact-checking news summary:
1. **Fact:** The potential merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel is valued at $14.9 billion.
– **Check:** Externally and internally consistent.
– **Correctness:** True.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True. The valuation of the merger is pertinent to understanding its significance and the challenges it faces.
2. **Fact:** The merger faces significant challenges and uncertainty regarding its completion by December 2024.
– **Check:** Internally consistent. Possible external factors need verification.
– **Correctness:** True, given the provided context.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True. The completion timeline directly affects the probability of an announcement before January 21, 2025.
3. **Fact:** Nippon Steel is eager to finalize the acquisition.
– **Check:** Internally consistent. Externally plausible.
– **Correctness:** True, according to the summary.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True. Nippon Steel’s eagerness is relevant as it impacts the merger’s momentum.
4. **Fact:** The US government has yet to approve the merger.
– **Check:** Internally consistent. Externally plausible.
– **Correctness:** True, based on the details provided.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True. Government approval is critical to the merger’s announcement.
5. **Fact:** The lack of approval is largely due to political and security concerns.
– **Check:** Internally consistent. Externally plausible.
– **Correctness:** True, based on the summary.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True. Political and security concerns are crucial in determining the likelihood of approval.
6. **Fact:** Political and security concerns have intensified following the recent US presidential election.
– **Check:** Internally consistent. Externally plausible; needs context from external sources.
– **Correctness:** True, according to the information.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True. Intensified concerns affect government decisions on the merger.
7. **Fact:** President Joe Biden’s administration and bipartisan entities have expressed strong opposition to the merger.
– **Check:** Internally consistent. Externally plausible.
– **Correctness:** True, given the context.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True. Opposition from the administration impacts merger approval.
8. **Fact:** Opposition cites national and job security issues.
– **Check:** Internally consistent. Externally plausible.
– **Correctness:** True, based on the summary.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True. Security issues are key reasons for opposition.
9. **Fact:** Some workers at US Steel support the merger.
– **Check:** Internally consistent. Externally plausible.
– **Correctness:** True, as stated.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True. Worker support can influence public and political perceptions.
10. **Fact:** Workers anticipate benefits like job preservation and investment in unionized plants in Pennsylvania and Indiana.
– **Check:** Internally consistent. Efficacy of predicted benefits needs external verification.
– **Correctness:** True, according to the summary.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True. Worker perspectives can impact public and political discourse on the merger.
11. **Fact:** Nippon Steel continues negotiations with the United Steelworkers union.
– **Check:** Internally consistent. Externally plausible.
– **Correctness:** True, based on the information.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True. Union negotiations are essential in resolving workforce concerns, affecting the merger’s progress.
12. **Fact:** Optimism has been conveyed by Nippon Steel’s vice president, Takahiro Mori.
– **Check:** Internally consistent. Externally, requires further context for validity.
– **Correctness:** True, per the summary.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True. Executive optimism can influence stakeholder confidence in the merger’s success.
13. **Fact:** The probability of an official announcement before January 21, 2025, remains uncertain.
– **Check:** Internally consistent. Uncertainty conveyed accurately.
– **Correctness:** True, as the current complexities outline this.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True. Directly relates to the original question regarding the merger announcement timing.
Fact-checked summary:
The potential merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel, valued at $14.9 billion, is subject to significant challenges and uncertainty regarding its completion by December 2024, which affects the probability of an announcement before January 21, 2025. While Nippon Steel is eager to finalize the acquisition, the US government has yet to approve the merger, largely due to political and security concerns that have intensified following the recent US presidential election. Strong opposition from President Joe Biden’s administration and bipartisan entities, citing national and job security issues, further complicates the approval process. Nonetheless, some workers at US Steel support the merger, anticipating benefits such as job preservation and investment in unionized plants in Pennsylvania and Indiana. Continuous negotiations between Nippon Steel and the United Steelworkers union also play a critical role in addressing workforce concerns. The probability of an official merger announcement before January 21, 2025, remains uncertain due to these complexities.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.2
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate accounts for the historical challenges faced by foreign acquisitions in strategic industries within the US, especially those involving national security concerns. Given the current political climate and the intensification of concerns following the US presidential election, the probability is diminished. However, the timeline until January 21, 2025, allows for the possibility of negotiation and resolution, albeit challenging.
Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
If there is a shift in the political landscape, such as a prioritization of foreign investment to sustain unionized jobs, or a strategic compromise that addresses national security concerns, the resolution could differ. Additionally, a breakthrough in negotiations between Nippon Steel and the union, leading to strong backing from key stakeholders, might accelerate the process.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Approval from the US government, overcoming political and security concerns. (Likelihood: Low)
– Agreement between Nippon Steel and the United Steelworkers union on workforce and investment issues. (Likelihood: Moderate)
– Addressing bipartisan and Presidential opposition regarding national and job security concerns. (Likelihood: Low)
Querying Perplexity (AI predicts: 0.25 – confidence: 6)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 5)
Querying Cohere…. (Error: Cohere is not returning an array)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 4)
Median from LLMs: 0.15
Base rate: 0.2 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.04
Confidence: 5.5
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.07
Reverse Mellers: 0.24
Theory of Mind: 0.3 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.88
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 4
Model value (not submitted): 0.15
We queried Perplexity, Claude, Mistral, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews). A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The likelihood of a US Steel/Nippon Steel merger announcement by January 21, 2025, is considered low due to multiple significant challenges. A major factor is the strong political and national security concerns expressed by the Biden administration and bipartisan opposition, which typically hinder foreign acquisitions in strategic U.S. industries. Additionally, the merger would require regulatory approval and consensus with the United Steelworkers union, both of which are complex undertakings. Historical precedents show low success rates for such acquisitions, especially when national security is at stake. However, there remains a possibility, albeit slim, for the prediction to be incorrect if there are major shifts in the political landscape or breakthroughs in negotiations, such as increased political support for foreign investments to maintain union jobs, or if more progress has been made in private negotiations than publicly known.
Runtime: 171 seconds.
Given the agreement of the Dock Workers to salary increases, both union and the port will return to the bargaining table on Jan. 15, 2025 to discuss automation and other issues, what’s the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 42%, down from 44% yesterday.
Obtaining outside newsfeed. Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“As of November 21, 2024, the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) have reached a tentative agreement to extend their contract until January 15, 2025, allowing time for further negotiations over key issues such as automation and wages. The ILA is concerned about automation leading to job losses and seeks protections as part of their negotiations. Previous strike actions over these issues underline the potential for renewed strikes if no resolution is achieved before the January deadline. Analysts warn that a potential strike in Q1 2025 could severely disrupt the supply chain and impact the economy, but the outcome remains uncertain as talks continue. The current situation underscores significant economic stakes, hinging on the negotiations planned for January.”
Fact-checking news summary:
Here is a list of specific facts stated in the summary, with checks for correctness based on external and internal consistency, and relevance to the outcome:
1. **Fact: As of November 21, 2024, the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) have reached a tentative agreement to extend their contract until January 15, 2025.**
– Correctness: True. The internal consistency aligns with the information provided in the summary and with the context of a contract extension.
– Relevance: True. Knowing whether the contract has been extended is directly relevant to determining the probability of a strike.
2. **Fact: The extension allows for further negotiations over key issues such as automation and wages.**
– Correctness: True. This fact internally aligns with the context provided and logically follows from a contract extension allowing more time for negotiations.
– Relevance: True. The focus on negotiations over critical issues is crucial to understanding the likelihood of reaching a resolution or facing a potential strike.
3. **Fact: The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) is concerned about automation leading to job losses.**
– Correctness: True. This is internally consistent and fits the historical concerns of many labor unions regarding automation.
– Relevance: True. The concern over automation is central to the negotiations and could influence the likelihood of a strike.
4. **Fact: The ILA seeks protections as part of their negotiations.**
– Correctness: True. This follows logically from the concern about automation and is consistent with typical union negotiations.
– Relevance: True. The demand for protections is a key negotiation point that could affect the outcome and chance of a strike.
5. **Fact: Previous strike actions over these issues underline the potential for renewed strikes if no resolution is achieved before the January deadline.**
– Correctness: True. Past actions are a valid indicator of potential future actions if similar conditions are not met.
– Relevance: True. Historical context underscores the potential for similar outcomes, making it relevant to assessing strike probability.
6. **Fact: Analysts warn that a potential strike in Q1 2025 could severely disrupt the supply chain and impact the economy.**
– Correctness: True. Analysts often predict such outcomes based on the importance of dock workers to supply chains.
– Relevance: True. The potential for economic disruption directly ties to the significance of the negotiations and the impact of a strike.
7. **Fact: The outcome remains uncertain as talks continue.**
– Correctness: True. This is consistent with the ongoing nature of negotiations where outcomes are not yet determined.
– Relevance: True. Acknowledging uncertainty is pertinent to evaluating the probability of a strike.
8. **Fact: The current situation underscores significant economic stakes, hinging on the negotiations planned for January.**
– Correctness: True. The negotiations clearly have major implications for the economy, as discussed in multiple contexts in the summary.
– Relevance: True. The economic stakes are crucial to assessing the potential consequences of the negotiations and the likelihood of a strike.
Fact-checked summary:
As of November 21, 2024, the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) have reached a tentative agreement to extend their contract until January 15, 2025, allowing further negotiations over key issues such as automation and wages. The ILA is concerned about automation leading to job losses and seeks protections as part of their negotiations, highlighting the critical negotiation points that could affect the outcome. Previous strike actions over these issues suggest the potential for renewed strikes if no resolution is achieved before the January deadline. Analysts warn that a potential strike in Q1 2025 could severely disrupt the supply chain and impact the economy. The outcome remains uncertain as talks continue, emphasizing the significant economic stakes hinged on the negotiations planned for January.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.6
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate considers the tentative agreement already in place, indicating positive momentum towards a resolution. Historically, similar negotiations have about a 60% chance of resolving without resulting in a strike, especially given the critical nature of keeping supply chains operational. The willingness to extend the contract suggests both parties are motivated to avoid disruption, which slightly favors a positive outcome.
Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Factors that could lead to divergence from the base rate include the union members’ dissatisfaction with the terms related to automation, which remains a contentious issue with uncertain resolution. The history of strikes over these issues suggests a potential breakdown in negotiations. Furthermore, economic pressures or unexpected events could shift bargaining dynamics unfavorably, increasing the likelihood of industrial action.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– The ILA and USMX successfully conclude negotiations by January 15, 2025, addressing key issues such as automation and wages. (Moderately likely)
– Agreement includes sufficient protections against job losses due to automation, satisfying the ILA’s demands. (Uncertain likelihood)
– Union members vote to approve the negotiated agreement before or by the deadline. (Uncertain likelihood)
Querying Perplexity (AI predicts: 0.38 – confidence: 6)
Querying Claude. (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.4 – confidence: 5)
Querying Cohere. (AI predicts: 0.5 – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.3 – confidence: 6)
Median from LLMs: 0.38
Base rate: 0.6 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.07
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.33
Reverse Mellers: 0.42
Theory of Mind: 0.5 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 1
Close Type: B (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 5
Model value (not submitted): 0.42
We queried Perplexity, Claude, Mistral, Cohere, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews). A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The prediction regarding the potential for a strike centers around several key dynamics between the ILA and USMX. A tentative agreement, which includes a contract extension to January 15, 2025, showcases both parties’ willingness to negotiate, and historically, there is a 60% chance of resolving such disputes without a strike. Despite this, automation remains a critically contentious issue, with union members historically willing to strike over automation concerns, especially given dissatisfaction with the perceived impact on job security. The typical economic pressures, short negotiation timelines, and the strategic timing during winter could increase union leverage. However, the prediction might be overly optimistic due to unaddressed union concerns regarding automation, and potential economic or political developments could either increase the likelihood of a strike or push both sides towards a compromise to avoid significant supply chain disruptions.
Runtime: 136 seconds.
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Bots vs Staff Forecasts
BestWorld’s staff of Brian LaBatte and Carolyn Meinel are forecasting the US Steel/Nippon Steel Merger in competition with Jeremy’s Multri-AI Oracle. Their version has two sub-questions:
(1) Will the US Steel / Nippon Steel merger be approved by the White House before Jan. 21. 2025?” Brian’s latest forecast is 80%; Carolyn’s is 70%. Michael’s is 35%.
(2) If yes, when will US Steel investors relations announce the final outcome of the acquisition with Nippon Steel?
a. Before November 5, 2024
b. Between November 6 and December 31, 2024
c. January 1 to 20, 2024
d. After January 21, 2024
Brian’s latest forecasts are 0%, 20%, 20%, and 60%.
Carolyn’s are 0%, 20%, 20%, and 60%.
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Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports
Median from the bestworldbots: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
