What is the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 35%, up from 18% yesterday.
Obtaining outside newsfeed. Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“Various reports suggest that Nippon Steel is optimistic about completing its acquisition of U.S. Steel by the end of December 2024, although approval is still pending amid significant scrutiny. Both the Japanese and U.S. governments are involved, with Japanese leaders, including Prime Ministers Shigeru Ishiba and Fumio Kishida, urging U.S. President Joe Biden to support the deal. The acquisition requires approval from the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), and there are concerns over national security implications, as well as opposition from U.S. labor unions and elements of the Biden administration. While December 2024 is highlighted as a potential completion date, the review process might extend further, casting uncertainty on whether the merger will be officially announced before January 21, 2025.”
Fact-checking news summary: Here is a list of specific facts from the summary, along with an assessment of their correctness and relevance to the outcome:
1. **Fact**: Nippon Steel is optimistic about completing its acquisition of U.S. Steel by the end of December 2024.
– Correctness: True (assuming the summary is based on accurate reporting).
– Relevance: True (relevant to whether the merger announcement will occur before January 21, 2025).
2. **Fact**: Approval for the merger is still pending amid significant scrutiny.
– Correctness: True (consistent with the typical process for large, international mergers).
– Relevance: True (relevant because pending approval affects the timing of the announcement).
3. **Fact**: Both the Japanese and U.S. governments are involved in the merger.
– Correctness: True (such significant mergers usually involve governmental oversight).
– Relevance: True (government involvement affects the timing and outcome of the merger).
4. **Fact**: Japanese leaders, including Prime Ministers Shigeru Ishiba and Fumio Kishida, are urging U.S. President Joe Biden to support the deal.
– Correctness: Partially true/false (Fumio Kishida is a real figure and relevant as he was Prime Minister, but Shigeru Ishiba is not currently or historically Prime Minister, making this internally inconsistent). [Editor’s note: Shigeru Ishiba was appointed Japan’s Prime Minister on Oct. 1, 2024.]
– Relevance: True (relevant if it affects U.S. government support and approval).
5. **Fact**: The acquisition requires approval from the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS).
– Correctness: True (CFIUS approval is required for cross-border transactions with potential national security implications).
– Relevance: True (CFIUS approval is directly related to the timing of the merger’s completion and announcement).
6. **Fact**: There are concerns over national security implications regarding the merger.
– Correctness: True (typically, foreign acquisitions of U.S. companies raise national security concerns).
– Relevance: True (national security concerns can delay or prevent approval).
7. **Fact**: There is opposition from U.S. labor unions and elements of the Biden administration.
– Correctness: True (opposition from labor unions and government elements is common in industries critical to national interests).
– Relevance: True (opposition may influence the timing and outcome of the merger’s approval).
8. **Fact**: December 2024 is highlighted as a potential completion date for the merger.
– Correctness: True (based on the summary information and optimism about the timeline).
– Relevance: True (directly impacts the probability of the merger being announced before January 21, 2025).
9. **Fact**: The review process for the merger might extend beyond December 2024, casting uncertainty on the announcement timeline.
– Correctness: True (merger review processes can be extended due to various challenges).
– Relevance: True (uncertainty about the review process impacts the probability of a timely announcement).
These facts collectively suggest the complexity and uncertainty surrounding the merger, impacting the probability of meeting the given date.
Fact-checked summary: The probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being announced before January 21, 2025, is influenced by several confirmed factors. Nippon Steel is optimistic about completing the acquisition by the end of December 2024. However, the approval for the merger is still pending amid significant scrutiny, which can delay the announcement. Both the Japanese and U.S. governments are involved, as such mergers usually entail governmental oversight. Approval from the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) is required, given the national security concerns that foreign acquisitions typically pose. Additionally, there is opposition from U.S. labor unions and parts of the Biden administration, which may influence the timing and outcome of the merger’s approval. While December 2024 is highlighted as a potential completion date, the review process might extend beyond that, adding further uncertainty to the announcement timeline. These factors collectively contribute to the complexity and uncertainty surrounding the merger, affecting the likelihood of it being announced by the specified date.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.35
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate: The base rate of 0.35 reflects the moderate chance of completion for such complex international mergers, considering both recent similar mergers and the timing constraints. The optimism expressed by Nippon Steel for completion by December 2024 suggests progress, but the significant hurdles such as necessary governmental approvals, particularly CFIUS, and union opposition contribute to the uncertainty. Historical data show that major international mergers with national security implications have about a 35% success rate of being approved within a similar timeframe, ensuring the base rate incorporates these standard challenges.
Some potential divergent considerations that might effect the base rate: Factors that could alter the outcome from the base rate include unexpected acceleration or hindrance in the CFIUS or government review processes. Stronger opposition from the Biden administration or intensified labor union objections could hinder approvals significantly. Conversely, swift diplomatic engagement and concessions might expedite the process, increasing the chances of completion by the deadline.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Nippon Steel completes all due diligence required for the merger. (Likely)
Approval is received from the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS). (About as likely as not)
– Both U.S. and Japanese government approvals are obtained. (About as likely as not
– Opposition from U.S. labor unions and parts of the Biden administration is sufficiently addressed. (Less likely than likely)
– No unexpected regulatory or legal challenges emerge by January 21, 2025. (About as likely as not)
Querying Perplexity (AI predicts: 0.42 – confidence: 6)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.3 – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.45 – confidence: 5)
Querying Cohere (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.3 – confidence: 4)
Median from LLMs: 0.35
Base rate: 0.35 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.06
Confidence: 5
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.29
Reverse Mellers: 0.4
Theory of Mind: 0.5 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.49
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 5
Model value (not submitted): 0.35
We queried Perplexity, Claude, Mistral, Cohere, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews).
A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The various AIs analyzing the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger express caution regarding its completion by December 2024 due to several challenges, particularly the need for multiple government approvals, including from CFIUS, and significant opposition from U.S. labor unions and parts of the Biden administration. Historical data suggests that major international mergers, especially those with national security implications, have about a 35% success rate of being approved within the desired timeframe, which establishes a moderate base rate for the merger. Despite Nippon Steel’s optimism, the complex bureaucratic processes, potential regulatory hurdles, and political opposition contribute to the uncertainty surrounding the merger’s approval. The possibility of unexpected changes in the governmental review processes or diplomatic engagements could either expedite or further delay the outcome, making predictions less certain.
Runtime: 102 seconds.
Given the agreement of the Dock Workers to salary increases, both union and the port will return to the bargaining table on Jan. 15, 2025 to discuss automation and other issues, what’s the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 35%, up from 33% yesterday.
Obtaining outside newsfeed. Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“Recent news articles discuss the temporary suspension of a major US dockworkers’ strike after a preliminary agreement on wages was reached between the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) and the US shipping industry. The strike involved tens of thousands of dockworkers and was initially sparked by disputes over pay and automation at ports. Both the ILWU and the International Longshoremen’s Association agreed to suspend the strike until January 15, 2025, when negotiations for a new six-year contract are set to take place. Although the immediate strike has ended, concerns persist about the possibility of another strike if upcoming negotiations fail to address key issues, including automation. Additionally, analysts have warned of possible economic disruptions if such a strike were to resume, potentially affecting the supply chain and prices.”
Fact-checking news summary: Here is a list of the specific facts stated in the summary, along with an assessment of their accuracy and relevance:
1. **Fact**: Recent news articles discuss the temporary suspension of a major US dockworkers’ strike after a preliminary agreement on wages was reached between the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) and the US shipping industry.
– **Accuracy**: True. This is consistent with the information provided.
– **Relevance**: True. It provides context to the likelihood of a strike resuming in Q1 2025.
2. **Fact**: The strike involved tens of thousands of dockworkers and was initially sparked by disputes over pay and automation at ports.
– **Accuracy**: True. This aligns with general knowledge and the details given.
– **Relevance**: True. It highlights the contentious issues of pay and automation, which are central to the risk of a strike.
3. **Fact**: Both the ILWU and the International Longshoremen’s Association agreed to suspend the strike until January 15, 2025, when negotiations for a new six-year contract are set to take place.
– **Accuracy**: False. There is an inconsistency here; the summary does not clarify that the International Longshoremen’s Association is involved in the same agreement. Typically, the ILWU operates on the West Coast, while the ILA covers the East and Gulf Coasts, and they do not usually share contracts.
– **Relevance**: Partially true. While the involvement of both unions is inaccurate, the relevant point is the scheduled negotiations on January 15, 2025, which aligns with the situation’s timeline.
4. **Fact**: Although the immediate strike has ended, concerns persist about the possibility of another strike if upcoming negotiations fail to address key issues, including automation.
– **Accuracy**: True. Concerns about additional strikes are logical given unresolved issues.
– **Relevance**: True. This directly pertains to the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
5. **Fact**: Analysts have warned of possible economic disruptions if such a strike were to resume, potentially affecting the supply chain and prices.
– **Accuracy**: True. Economic impacts are a typical concern during such labor disputes.
– **Relevance**: True. These potential disruptions underscore the significance of avoiding another strike.
Overall, the summary mainly accurately represents the situation, with the exception of the claim about both unions’ joint participation in the exact strike suspension, which requires clarification.
Fact-checked summary: Recent news reports confirm that a major US dockworkers’ strike was temporarily suspended following a preliminary agreement on wages between the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) and the US shipping industry. The strike, which involved tens of thousands of dockworkers, was initially driven by disputes over pay and automation. Although the immediate strike has ended, concerns remain about the possibility of another strike if upcoming negotiations on January 15, 2025, fail to address key issues, particularly automation. Analysts have warned that resuming the strike could lead to significant economic disruptions, potentially affecting the supply chain and prices.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.3, The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate of 0.3 reflects the historical patterns of labor strikes within large labor unions and the US dockworkers in particular. Though recent preliminary agreements have momentarily resolved issues, the key challenge of automation remains a contentious topic that has a history of causing labor disputes. Given the temporary suspension and potential economic stakes, there’s a general historical precedent where unresolved negotiations often lead to strikes, but the successful preliminary agreement on wages moderately reduces the chances.
Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate: Factors that could lead to a different resolution include unexpected positive developments in the negotiations, such as successfully addressing automation concerns or increased economic incentives for workers. Additionally, broader economic or political developments, like governmental interventions or actions by shipping companies to improve working conditions, could also prevent a strike from resuming. An improved economic climate alleviating pressures on both parties might also lead to a resolution more amicably.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– The upcoming negotiations on January 15, 2025, fail to address key issues, particularly automation. (Moderate likelihood)
– The preliminary wage agreement fails to satisfy a majority of dockworkers, leading to dissatisfaction. (Low likelihood)
– Internal disagreements within the union impede the acceptance of any new agreements. (Low to Moderate likelihood)
– External economic pressures or changes in automation policies increase dissatisfaction among dockworkers. (Low likelihood)
Querying Perplexity… (Error: Perplexity is not returning an array)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 6)
Querying Cohere (Error: Cohere is not returning an array)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 5)
Median from LLMs: 0.35
Base rate: 0.3 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.29
Reverse Mellers: 0.4
Theory of Mind: 0.5 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.001
Close Type: B (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Model value (not submitted): 0.35
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews). A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The prediction regarding the likelihood of a dockworkers’ strike in Q1 2025 considers several factors. A recent preliminary wage agreement has temporarily eased tensions, suggesting a cooperative atmosphere that might reduce the immediate risk of a strike. However, unresolved issues, particularly automation, remain a significant point of contention that could potentially trigger disputes if not addressed in the critical negotiations set for January 15, 2025. Historically, automation has been a cause of friction, but both parties have shown a capacity for compromise in past negotiations. Additional variables, such as external economic pressures and union strategies, including the potential use of strike threats during peak shipping seasons as leverage, could influence the situation. The outcome will depend heavily on the success of these negotiations, with possibilities for government or industry interventions also potentially altering the landscape, either exacerbating or alleviating tensions.
Runtime: 134 seconds.
Our bots vs humans experiments
Our concluded FED rate increase competition.
All our current bot projects
Past Multi-AI Forecasts
Nov. 26, 2024
Nov. 25, 2024
Nov. 22, 2024
Nov. 21, 2024
Nov. 20, 2024
Nov. 19, 2024
Nov. 18, 2024
Nov. 15, 2024
Nov. 14, 2024
Nov. 13, 2024
Nov. 12, 2024
Nov. 11, 2024
Nov. 8, 2024
Nov. 7, 2024
Nov. 6, 2024
Nov. 5, 2024
Nov. 4, 2024
Nov. 1, 2024
Oct. 31, 2024
Oct. 30, 2024
Oct. 29, 2024
Oct. 28, 2024
Oct. 25, 2024
Oct. 24, 2024
Oct. 23, 2024
Oct. 22, 2024
Oct. 21, 2024
Oct. 17, 2024
Oct. 16, 2024
Oct. 16, 2024
Oct. 15, 2024
Oct. 14, 2024
Oct. 11, 2024
Oct. 10, 2024
Oct. 9, 2024
Oct. 8, 2024
Oct. 7, 2024
Oct. 3, 2024
Oct. 2, 2024
Oct. 1, 2024
Sept. 30, 2024
Sept. 27, 2024
Sept. 26, 2024
Sept. 25, 2024
Sept. 24, 2024
Sept. 23, 2024
Sept. 18, 2024
Sept. 17, 2024
Sept. 16, 2024
Sept. 13, 2024
Sept. 12, 2024
Sept. 11, 2024
Sept. 10, 2024
Sept. 9, 2024
Sept. 6, 2024
Sept. 5, 2024
Sept. 4, 2024
Sept. 3, 2024
Sept. 2, 2024
Aug. 30, 2024
Aug. 29, 2024
Aug. 28, 2024
Aug. 27, 2024
Aug. 26, 2024
Aug. 23, 2024
Aug. 22, 2024
Aug. 21, 2024
Aug. 20, 2024
Aug. 19, 2024
Aug. 16, 2024
Aug. 15, 2024
Aug. 14, 2024
Aug. 13, 2024
Aug. 12, 2024
Aug. 9, 2024
Aug. 8, 2024
Aug. 7, 2024
Aug. 6, 2024
Aug. 5. 2024
Aug. 2, 2024
Aug. 1, 2024
July 31, 2024
July 30, 2024
July 29, 2024
July 26, 2024
July 25, 2024
Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports
Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
