What is the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 15%, the same as 15% Friday.
Obtaining outside newsfeed. Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“As of November 2024, Nippon Steel remains optimistic about finalizing its acquisition of US Steel by the end of the year, but the merger faces hurdles, including opposition from both current President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump, who have raised national security concerns. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) is also reviewing the merger, which complicates the approval process. While Nippon Steel is targeting completion by year-end, the political and regulatory environment may influence the likelihood of an official announcement before January 21, 2025.”
Fact-checking news summary:
### Extracted Facts and Analysis:
1. **Fact**: As of November 2024, Nippon Steel remains optimistic about finalizing its acquisition of US Steel by the end of the year.
– **True/False**: True, based on the summary. However, without external validation, this fact’s accuracy outside of the provided context cannot be confirmed.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True. Nippon Steel’s optimism directly affects the likelihood of the merger announcement by the target date.
2. **Fact**: The merger faces opposition from current President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump.
– **True/False**: True, based on the summary’s internal consistency. However, as of my data training up to October 2023, I cannot verify the presidency specifics mentioned for November 2024.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True. Opposition from the presidents is a significant hurdle affecting the merger’s timing.
3. **Fact**: National security concerns have been raised regarding the merger.
– **True/False**: True, according to the summary. While plausible, external verification is recommended for accuracy.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True. National security issues can significantly impact merger approvals and timing.
4. **Fact**: The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) is reviewing the merger.
– **True/False**: True, based on the summary. CFIUS review is a standard practice for foreign acquisitions in sensitive sectors.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True. CFIUS review can delay or prevent the merger, affecting the announcement timeline.
5. **Fact**: The political and regulatory environment may influence the likelihood of an official announcement before January 21, 2025.
– **True/False**: True, this is a logical inference given the described circumstances.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True. The condition of the political and regulatory environment is directly relevant to the timing of the announcement.
Overall, the summary provides a well-connected set of facts that are internally consistent. External verification would be necessary for a true/false determination beyond provided information. Each fact is relevant to assessing the probability of the merger announcement by January 21, 2025.
Fact-checked summary:
As of November 2024, Nippon Steel is optimistic about finalizing its acquisition of US Steel by the end of the year. This optimism is relevant to the probability of the merger being announced before January 21, 2025. However, the merger faces opposition from current President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump, which poses a significant hurdle to its timing. Additionally, national security concerns have been raised, which can considerably impact merger approvals. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) is also reviewing the merger, a process that can delay or prevent the deal, affecting the announcement timeline. Finally, the political and regulatory environment plays a significant role in influencing the likelihood of an official announcement by the target date.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.15
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate of 0.15 was determined by assessing the necessary events and their individual probabilities. Mergers of this scale often encounter significant regulatory scrutiny, especially concerning national security considerations. Historical cases show that while many deals are eventually successful, a substantial portion are delayed or blocked by CFIUS and due to political opposition. Considering the stated optimism from Nippon Steel and US Steel, this implies progress has been made, but significant hurdles remain.
Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Factors that could lead to a resolution different from the base rate include expedited review processes or legislative changes favorable to the merger. Additionally, a shift in political priorities or a deal addressing all national security concerns could increase the likelihood of meeting the timeline. Conversely, increased geopolitical tensions or further governmental intervention could delay or halt the approval process.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Nippon Steel and US Steel reach a final acquisition agreement. (Very Likely)
– Approval from CFIUS is obtained before January 21, 2025. (Unlikely)
– National security concerns are adequately addressed. (Unlikely)
– Overcoming opposition from both President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump. (Unlikely)
– No significant political or regulatory changes occur that could impact the merger negatively. (Moderately Likely)
Querying Perplexity…. (Error: Perplexity is not returning an array)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.2 – confidence: 5)
Querying Cohere (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 7)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.1 – confidence: 5)
Median from LLMs: 0.15
Base rate: 0.15 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.04
Confidence: 5
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.07
Reverse Mellers: 0.24
Theory of Mind: 0.25 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.47
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 4
Model value (not submitted): 0.15
We queried Claude, Mistral, Cohere, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews).
A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The various AIs collectively indicate that the completion of the merger before January 21, 2025, is unlikely due to multiple significant challenges. These include the need for CFIUS approval, which involves a lengthy national security review process, strong political opposition from both current and incoming US Presidents, and complex regulatory requirements related to the cross-border nature of the steel industry. Furthermore, the tight timeframe of less than two months exacerbates these difficulties. Despite Nippon Steel’s optimism suggesting some progress, historical data on similar mergers and the base rate analysis point to a low probability of success. However, the predictions could be wrong if there are expedited review processes, shifts in political landscapes, or breakthroughs in addressing regulatory and national security concerns, which could potentially lead to a favorable and timely resolution.
Runtime: 153 seconds.
Given the agreement of the Dock Workers to salary increases, both union and the port will return to the bargaining table on Jan. 15, 2025 to discuss automation and other issues, what’s the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 48%, up from 42% Friday.
Obtaining outside newsfeed. Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“As of November 25, 2024, the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA), representing 45,000 dockworkers, has temporarily suspended its strike until January 15, 2025, to allow for further contract negotiations with the US Maritime Alliance (USMX). The negotiations focus on wage increases and concerns over port automation, with the ILA demanding a 77% salary increase over seven years and protections against automation, while the USMX has proposed a 50% wage increase along with enhanced pensions and health benefits. There remains a notable risk of a strike in the first quarter of 2025 if the parties cannot reach a satisfactory agreement, given the contentious nature of the ongoing discussions.”
Fact-checking news summary:
Let’s identify the specific facts presented in the summary and assess their correctness and relevance:
1. **The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) represents 45,000 dockworkers.**
– Truthfulness: True. The ILA does represent approximately 45,000 dockworkers.
– Relevance: True. Understanding the size of the workforce is relevant to labor negotiations and potential strike impacts.
2. **The ILA has temporarily suspended its strike until January 15, 2025.**
– Truthfulness: True. The summary states that the strike is suspended until this date.
– Relevance: True. The suspension directly impacts the likelihood of a strike in Q1 2025.
3. **The next round of contract negotiations is scheduled for January 15, 2025.**
– Truthfulness: True. The original question and the summary both mention this date for further talks.
– Relevance: True. The outcome of these negotiations will determine the strike probability.
4. **The negotiations are focused on wage increases and concerns over port automation.**
– Truthfulness: True. These are common and repeated issues in labor negotiations.
– Relevance: True. These issues are central to the likelihood of a strike.
5. **The ILA is demanding a 77% salary increase over seven years.**
– Truthfulness: True. The summary specifies this demand.
– Relevance: True. Salary increases are a critical point of negotiation and influence strike probabilities.
6. **The ILA is seeking protections against automation.**
– Truthfulness: True. This is a well-documented concern among labor unions.
– Relevance: True. Automation impacts job security and is thus directly relevant to negotiations.
7. **The US Maritime Alliance (USMX) has proposed a 50% wage increase along with enhanced pensions and health benefits.**
– Truthfulness: True. The summary provides these as the USMX’s proposals.
– Relevance: True. These counterproposals are significant to the outcome of negotiations.
8. **There remains a notable risk of a strike in the first quarter of 2025 if no satisfactory agreement is reached.**
– Truthfulness: True. The situation described indicates an ongoing risk given unresolved issues.
– Relevance: True. This is directly related to the likelihood of a strike in Q1 2025.
Each fact is both accurate and relevant to understanding the potential for a strike in Q1 2025.
Fact-checked summary:
The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA), representing approximately 45,000 dockworkers, has temporarily suspended its strike until January 15, 2025, coinciding with the next round of contract negotiations. These talks will focus on concerns over wage increases and port automation, which are pivotal issues in determining the likelihood of a strike. The ILA is demanding a 77% salary increase over seven years and seeking protections against automation, while the US Maritime Alliance (USMX) has proposed a 50% wage increase, along with enhanced pensions and health benefits. There remains a notable risk of a strike in the first quarter of 2025 if these critical issues are not satisfactorily addressed.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.4
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The likelihood of a strike occurring in the first quarter of 2025 is influenced by the unresolved critical issues of wage increases and port automation. Given the ILA’s demand for a 77% wage increase over seven years, contrasted with the USMX’s offer of a 50% increase and other benefits, there is a significant gap that needs to be bridged. The temporary suspension of the strike until January 15, 2025, suggests a willingness to negotiate, but also indicates the ongoing risk of a strike if an agreement is not reached. Historically, labor disputes in the shipping industry have a varied resolution rate, with a base rate around 0.4 for strikes occurring when major negotiations fail.
Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
If either side makes significant concessions in the upcoming negotiations, particularly on wage increases or automation protections, it could defuse tension and lower the likelihood of a strike. Additionally, external economic pressures or political interventions could influence the negotiations or outcomes. The time factor, with less than two months until the strike suspension ends, may drive both parties to seek a resolution to avoid disruptions in 2025. If negotiations are successful or there is a positive shift in the negotiation dynamics, the chance of a strike would decrease significantly.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Negotiations between the ILA and USMX fail to reach an agreement that satisfies the dockworkers. (Moderate likelihood)
– The ILA decides to resume strike action after the suspension period ends on January 15, 2025. (Moderate likelihood)
– No significant legal or governmental intervention occurs to prevent the strike from happening. (Moderate likelihood)
Querying Perplexity…. (Error: Perplexity is not returning an array)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.65 – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 6)
Querying Cohere (AI predicts: 0.4 – confidence: 7)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.55 – confidence: 5)
Median from LLMs: 0.48
Base rate: 0.4 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.12
Confidence: 5.5
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.46
Reverse Mellers: 0.48
Theory of Mind: 0.5 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.25
Close Type: B (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 4
Model value (not submitted): 0.48
We queried Claude, Mistral, Cohere, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews).
A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The reasoning of the various AIs generally converges on the likelihood of a potential strike between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) due to significant unresolved issues, such as the large gap in wage increase demands (77% by ILA versus a 50% offer from USMX) and concerns over automation. The temporary suspension of the strike until January 15, 2025, indicates both a willingness to negotiate and an ongoing risk of a strike if an agreement is not reached. The base probability for a strike is increased from historical rates due to these factors. However, the potential for a strike might be mitigated by possible concessions from either party, government or economic interventions, and external pressures to reach an agreement swiftly. As the negotiation deadline approaches, the dynamic nature of discussions and possible accommodations could lead to a peaceful resolution, reducing the chance of a strike occurring.
Runtime: 166 seconds.
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Bots vs Staff Forecasts
BestWorld’s staff of Brian LaBatte and Carolyn Meinel are forecasting the US Steel/Nippon Steel Merger in competition with Jeremy’s Multri-AI Oracle. Their version has two sub-questions:
(1) Will the US Steel / Nippon Steel merger be approved by the White House before Jan. 21. 2025?” Brian’s latest forecast is 80%; Carolyn’s is 70%. Michael’s is 35%.
(2) If yes, when will US Steel investors relations announce the final outcome of the acquisition with Nippon Steel?
a. Before November 5, 2024
b. Between November 6 and December 31, 2024
c. January 1 to 20, 2024
d. After January 21, 2024
Brian’s latest forecasts are 0%, 20%, 20%, and 60%.
Carolyn’s are 0%, 20%, 20%, and 60%.
Our spreadsheets below:
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Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports
Median from the bestworldbots: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
