Given the agreement of the US Dock Workers (International Longshoremen’s Association) to salary increases, both union and the port returned to the bargaining table on Jan. 15, 2025 to discuss automation and other issues. What’s the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 15%.
Obtaining outside newsfeed. News from various sources. Based on the most recent news articles, here’s a summary of the US dockworkers situation:
Most Recent Development (February 2024):
Port workers at the Port of Montreal are currently threatening an indefinite strike if a deal isn’t reached by Thursday morning. This is part of ongoing negotiations between the Maritime Employers Association (MEA) and CUPE Longshoremen’s Union, Local 375, following a series of limited work stoppages at the port.
Earlier Developments (January 2024):
A major potential crisis was averted when the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA), representing 45,000 dock workers on the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts, reached a tentative agreement with employers on a new six-year contract. This agreement prevented what would have been a significant strike affecting 36 ports across the region. This came after dock workers had gone on strike on October 1, 2024, for the first time in nearly 50 years.
Separate Labor Issue:
In a related but separate labor dispute, Costco workers across the United States have voted to authorize a nationwide strike due to disagreements over their labor contract, which was set to expire on January 31. The Teamsters union, representing these workers, is demanding better wages and improved working conditions, though this is distinct from the port workers’ situation.
Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“The recent labor situations involving port workers and other unions highlight ongoing tensions and negotiations. At the Port of Montreal, workers are threatening an indefinite strike if no agreement is reached soon with the Maritime Employers Association, amid ongoing talks and limited recent work stoppages. In the U.S., a significant strike was narrowly avoided when the International Longshoremen’s Association reached a tentative six-year contract agreement, preventing a major disruption at 36 ports after a brief strike in October. Additionally, Costco workers, represented by the Teamsters union, have voted to authorize a nationwide strike over contract disputes, seeking better wages and conditions, although this issue is separate from the port workers’ negotiations. Due to the mix of confirmed and speculative information, caution is advised in interpreting these developments.”
Fact-checking news summary:
Based on the provided summary, here is a list of specific facts, along with their analysis:
1. **Fact:** There are ongoing tensions and negotiations involving port workers and other unions.
– **Correctness:** True, as labor negotiations often involve ongoing tensions.
– **Importance:** Important, as it sets the context for potential disruptions.
– **Relevance:** True, as it directly relates to the question about a potential strike.
2. **Fact:** Workers at the Port of Montreal are threatening an indefinite strike.
– **Correctness:** True, according to the summary provided.
– **Importance:** Lesser importance for the U.S. port workers’ strike question, but still relevant to understanding broader labor issues.
– **Relevance:** True, although more related to Canadian ports, similar dynamics can affect U.S. ports.
3. **Fact:** There have been ongoing talks and limited recent work stoppages at the Port of Montreal.
– **Correctness:** True, as stated in the summary.
– **Importance:** Lesser importance to the question about U.S. ports.
– **Relevance:** True, as it provides a comparative situation that may influence U.S. workers.
4. **Fact:** The International Longshoremen’s Association reached a tentative six-year contract agreement in the U.S.
– **Correctness:** True, as per the summary.
– **Importance:** Critical, as this directly impacts the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
– **Relevance:** True, since it addresses the potential for a strike, highlighting that an agreement was reached.
5. **Fact:** A significant strike was narrowly avoided at 36 U.S. ports.
– **Correctness:** True, as implied by the tentative contract agreement, preventing disruption.
– **Importance:** Important, as it shows recent negotiations were successful in avoiding disruption.
– **Relevance:** True, as it directly relates to the likelihood of further strikes.
6. **Fact:** There was a brief strike in October by the International Longshoremen’s Association.
– **Correctness:** True, according to the summary.
– **Importance:** Important, as it provides context for recent labor actions and urgency in negotiations.
– **Relevance:** True, because it impacts the current negotiation climate.
7. **Fact:** Costco workers, represented by the Teamsters union, have voted to authorize a nationwide strike over contract disputes.
– **Correctness:** True, as per the summary.
– **Importance:** Unimportant to the resolution of the question about port worker strikes.
– **Relevance:** False, not directly relevant to U.S. ports or dockworkers.
8. **Fact:** Caution is advised in interpreting developments due to mixed confirmed and speculative information.
– **Correctness:** True, as indicated in the summary.
– **Importance:** Important, as it suggests uncertainty and potential variability in the situation.
– **Relevance:** True, because it advises care in assessing the probability of a strike.
This analysis is used to assess the probability of a strike in Q1 2025, considering confirmed facts and their relations to potential outcomes.
Fact-checked summary:
The probability of a strike in Q1 2025 among U.S. port workers appears lowered due to a recent tentative six-year contract agreement reached by the International Longshoremen’s Association, which is crucial in mitigating strike risks. Despite ongoing tensions and negotiations among port workers and unions, recent negotiations successfully avoided a major strike at 36 U.S. ports, highlighting effective conflict resolution efforts. However, the presence of ongoing talks, limited work stoppages at the Port of Montreal, and a brief strike by the International Longshoremen’s Association in October signify a challenging negotiation climate. Caution is advised when assessing these developments, as the situation remains dynamic and influenced by various labor actions and negotiations.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.2. The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate of a strike occurring among U.S. port workers is influenced by historical frequencies of such events, the recent tentative six-year contract agreement, and attempts at conflict resolution. Historically, major strikes are rare, especially when a long-term contract has recently been negotiated. However, the presence of limited work stoppages and a brief strike by the International Longshoremen’s Association in October 2024 indicates some level of ongoing tension. Generally, major strikes are averted in essential sectors like ports due to their significant impact on the economy.
Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Despite the recently negotiated contract and the avoidance of a major strike at 36 ports, the dynamic nature of labor negotiations could lead to unexpected escalations. The ongoing talks and recent labor actions, albeit minor, suggest a challenging negotiation climate. Furthermore, any significant changes in economic conditions, political landscape, or leadership within the unions or employers could influence the likelihood of a strike occurring. Monitoring these variables closely will be essential, as they could shift the current trajectory away from the base rate.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– A breakdown in negotiations between the U.S. port workers’ unions and their employers is necessary. The likelihood is low given the recent successful contract negotiations.
– Increased tensions or unresolved issues between U.S. port workers and employers have to escalate. The likelihood is moderate, as there were recent signs of tension.
– No intervention from government or other major parties to mediate and prevent a strike. The likelihood is moderate, as government intervention is common in critical labor disputes.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 7)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.25 – confidence: 5)
Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.15
Base rate: 0.2 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.05
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.07
Reverse Mellers: 0.24
Theory of Mind: 0.25 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.86
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Model value: 0.15
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The consensus among the AIs is that the likelihood of a dock workers’ strike in Q1 2025 is generally low, primarily due to a recently reached six-year contract agreement that reduces strike risk. Historically, major port strikes are uncommon following successful contract negotiations, and the economic impact usually prompts government intervention to prevent disruptions. However, ongoing negotiations concerning automation, previous minor work stoppages, and a brief strike in October 2024 indicate underlying tensions that could escalate. Factors such as potential deterioration in negotiations, changes in economic or political conditions, and the unpredictable nature of labor relations introduce some uncertainty and suggest a non-zero probability of a strike despite the stable contract agreement.
How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
Model value:
* less than 172: 10%
* between 172 and 205: 45%
* between 206 and 240: 35%
* more than 240: 10%
Obtaining outside newsfeed. News from various sources:
Based on the provided news articles, here’s a summary of the key points about Canada’s upcoming election:
Most Recent Developments:
– Ontario is currently in the final stretch of a provincial by-election campaign, with advance polls now open but offering fewer voting days than usual due to the early vote timing. Party leaders are making their final pushes, with Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie and NDP Leader Marit Stiles making appearances in Toronto.
Political Standing & Polls:
– Recent polling shows the Conservatives leading with 41% support, followed by the Liberals at 33%. The NDP is experiencing what’s being described as a “deadly” slide in their polling numbers.
– In some regions like Sarnia-Lambton, traditionally Conservative ridings are seeing crowded races with multiple candidates.
Notable Issues:
– Progressive Conservative candidates have faced criticism in Hamilton for skipping election debates
– The parties are competing for attention during major sporting events, including running ads during the 4 Nations hockey final between Canada and USA
– Economic concerns, particularly regarding tariffs, are dominating discussions in some ridings like Elgin-Middlesex-London
– Tax policy implications of the election results are being closely watched, as different party victories could lead to varying tax approaches
This election period appears to be particularly contentious, with strong competition between the major parties and significant focus on economic issues and candidate engagement with voters.
Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“The recent election-related developments in Canada highlight a contentious provincial by-election in Ontario, marked by fewer early voting days and last-minute efforts by party leaders like Liberal Bonnie Crombie and NDP’s Marit Stiles in Toronto. Current polls place the Conservatives in the lead with 41% support, followed by the Liberals at 33%, while the NDP is reportedly experiencing declining numbers. Criticism has arisen as some Progressive Conservative candidates in Hamilton are skipping debates, while parties vie for voter attention by running ads during major sporting events. Economic issues, particularly tariffs and tax policy impacts, are central topics in ridings such as Elgin-Middlesex-London, underscoring the election’s focus on economic and voter engagement challenges.”
Fact-checking news summary:. ### Specific Facts from the Summary:
1. **There was a contentious provincial by-election in Ontario.**
– **Correctness:** True
– **Importance:** Lesser
– **Relevance:** False (Provincial by-elections do not directly determine federal parliamentary seat outcomes).
2. **There were fewer early voting days for the by-election.**
– **Correctness:** It can be true or false, but it needs verification because it is not specified whether the same applies to the federal election.
– **Importance:** Lesser
– **Relevance:** False (Early voting days in a provincial by-election don’t directly affect federal elections).
3. **Party leaders like Liberal Bonnie Crombie and NDP’s Marit Stiles made last-minute efforts in Toronto.**
– **Correctness:** True (for Bonnie Crombie as an Ontario Liberal leader; true for Marit Stiles as NDP leader in Ontario).
– **Importance:** Lesser
– **Relevance:** False (As they are active in provincial politics, not federal).
4. **Current polls place the Conservatives in the lead with 41% support.**
– **Correctness:** Potentially true, based on the given context, but should be cross-validated with the latest national poll data.
– **Importance:** Important
– **Relevance:** True
5. **The Liberals are at 33% in the polls.**
– **Correctness:** Potentially true, but should be verified with national polling data.
– **Importance:** Important
– **Relevance:** True
6. **The NDP is reportedly experiencing declining numbers.**
– **Correctness:** True, if this reflects current trends, though it requires confirmation with specific polling data.
– **Importance:** Important
– **Relevance:** True
7. **Some Progressive Conservative candidates in Hamilton are skipping debates.**
– **Correctness:** True (if occurring, though this needs verification for broader applicability).
– **Importance:** Lesser
– **Relevance:** False (Provincial debates don’t directly determine federal outcomes).
8. **Parties are running ads during major sporting events.**
– **Correctness:** Likely true, as it is common strategy during elections.
– **Importance:** Lesser
– **Relevance:** True (It indicates efforts to increase voter engagement).
9. **Economic issues, particularly tariffs and tax policy impacts, are central topics in ridings such as Elgin-Middlesex-London.**
– **Correctness:** True, as economic issues can often dominate election discussions if accurately described.
– **Importance:** Important
– **Relevance:** True (Economic issues impact voter decisions, influencing election outcomes).
### Summary
Of the above facts, those giving specific percentages for party support (Facts 4, 5, and 6) are of greater importance to determining the potential number of seats the Conservative Party might win in the next federal election. While other facts provide context about the general political environment, only a subset directly impacts the prediction of seat outcomes at the federal level.
Fact-checked summary:
According to current polling, the Conservative Party is leading with 41% support, while the Liberals trail with 33%. Additionally, the New Democratic Party (NDP) is reportedly experiencing declining numbers, reflecting a shift in voter preferences that could influence the distribution of seats in the next federal parliamentary election. These polling figures are important for predicting the potential number of seats the Conservative Party might win, as they directly indicate current public support levels. Furthermore, economic issues, such as tariffs and tax policies, are central election topics, impacting voter decisions and potentially affecting election results.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.15, “between 172 and 205”: 0.45, “between 206 and 240”: 0.35, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.05, “between 172 and 205”: 0.55, “between 206 and 240”: 0.3, “more than 240”: 0.1] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.1, “between 172 and 205”: 0.25, “between 206 and 240”: 0.45, “more than 240”: 0.2] – confidence: 7)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* less than 172: 10%
* between 172 and 205: 45%
* between 206 and 240: 35%
* more than 240: 10%
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The Conservative Party is currently polling at 41% support, leading the Liberals who are at 33%. This suggests the Conservatives could gain a significant number of parliamentary seats, potentially benefiting from the decline in NDP support through vote splitting. However, predicting seat counts is complex due to factors such as geographic concentration of support in Canada’s first-past-the-post system, which can lead to inefficient translation of votes into seats. While historical trends indicate strong Conservative performance with similar support levels, regional variations and potential shifts in voter preferences closer to the election could alter outcomes. Additionally, factors such as economic conditions, tariffs, and tax policies are central to the election and may influence voter behavior, while unforeseen events or changes in public opinion could impact polling reliability and final results.
Runtime for both questions on this page: 105 seconds.
Past Multi-AI Oracle Forecasts
Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports
Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
