How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s April 28, 2024 parliamentary election?
Here’s what Jeremy Lichtman‘s Multi-AI Oracle forecasts today:
* less than 172: 65%
* between 172 and 205: 25%
* between 206 and 240: 9%
* more than 240: 1%
Carolyn’s note: The Conservative Party must win at least 172 seats to gain control of the Parliament without needing to build a coalition with one of the smaller parties.
Here’s how his Multi-AI Oracle says it arrived at these probabilities:
Obtaining outside data. Checking internet sources, using keywords: Conservative Party Canada election. Results from around the web:
{think}
Okay, let’s tackle this query about the Canada Conservative Party election using the provided search results. First, I need to find all the relevant information from the sources given. The user wants a summary from news sites, Wikipedia, party websites, and prediction markets, along with any data tables.
Looking at the search results, the first one is a Wikipedia page about the 2025 Canadian federal election. It details the policy platforms of both the Liberal and Conservative parties. The Conservative Party’s platform includes tax cuts, GST elimination on homes under $1.3M, increasing TFSA limits, and plans to repeal certain acts to fast-track resource projects. They also want to grant Quebec more immigration control and end CBC funding except for French programming. There’s mention of using the notwithstanding clause for parole ineligibility. This is all from source [1].
Source [2] is a YouTube video about Pierre Poilievre, the Conservative leader. It mentions that despite other parties releasing costed platforms, Poilievre’s Conservatives are facing challenges. Source [3] from Sky News talks about the “Trump effect” impacting the election. Poilievre initially had a lead but his alignment with Trump’s policies, like tax cuts and resource production, has caused a dip. There’s a trade war with the US and Trump’s threats affecting the election dynamics. Carney criticizes Poilievre’s approach as divisive and too American.
Sources [4] and [5] are about an AI benchmark paper, which doesn’t seem relevant to the election query. So, focusing on sources 1-3.
Now, the user also asked for tables with data. The Wikipedia page has policy points which can be structured into a table comparing Liberal and Conservative platforms. The tax policies, housing, energy, CBC funding, and other key points can be tabulated.
For time series data, the search results mention the Conservative’s lead dropping due to the Trump effect. However, there’s no explicit numerical data provided like poll numbers over periods. The user might expect hypothetical data, but since the sources don’t have actual time series, I can’t include that. Instead, focus on summarizing the policies and the external factors affecting the election.
Also, check if any market prediction sites are mentioned. The query asked for sites like Kalshi or Polymarket, but the provided sources don’t include those. So, I can’t add market predictions, but I can note that information from those sites isn’t present in the given data.
In summary, the answer should cover the Conservative Party’s platform from source [1], the challenges they face from the Trump effect as per [3], and the lack of costed platform mentioned in [2]. Present the policy comparison in a table, and explain the absence of time series data due to unavailable sources.
The 2025 Canadian federal election is shaping up as a pivotal contest between Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. The Conservative platform focuses on tax relief, housing affordability, and energy policy shifts, while facing challenges from geopolitical tensions with the United States.
## Conservative Party Platform Highlights
**Taxation & Economy**
– Reduce lowest income tax bracket from 15% to 12.75% [1]
– Increase basic personal exemption for working seniors by $10,000 and extend RRSP withdrawal deadline to 73 [1]
– Raise TFSA contribution limit by $5,000 for investments in Canadian businesses [1]
**Housing**
– Eliminate GST on new home purchases under $1.3M for all buyers [1]
– Offer municipalities 50% reimbursement (up to $25,000) for reduced development charges [1]
**Energy & Environment**
– Repeal Impact Assessment Act and Canadian Energy Regulator Act to expedite pipelines/mining projects [1]
– Eliminate carbon tax on industry [1]
**Institutional Changes**
– Defund CBC English-language operations while maintaining French Radio-Canada [1]
– Use notwithstanding clause to restore judicial discretion on parole ineligibility for multiple murders [1]
## Campaign Dynamics
Pierre Poilievre initially capitalized on post-pandemic frustrations over housing costs and inflation, holding a 25-point lead early in the campaign[3]. However, this advantage has eroded due to:
1. **Trump Effect**: Perceived alignment with U.S. policies on tariffs and resource extraction[3]
2. **Trade Tensions**: Ongoing disputes over Trump’s threat to “make Canada part” of U.S. trade frameworks[3]
3. **Platform Specificity**: Failure to release fully costed platform despite Liberal/NDP disclosures[2]
Key strategists note Poilievre’s attempt to balance pro-development policies (“increase resource production”) with nationalist economic messaging (“Canadian businesses first”)[1][3]. Prime Minister Carney has framed the election as a choice between “division and Americanism” versus unified governance[3].
*No market prediction data from platforms like Kalshi or Polymarket appears in available sources. Time series tracking of polling averages isn’t included in the provided materials.*
OpenAI gives a base rate of probability of Conservative Party winning: opposition parties have about a 40% chance of winning a federal election.
The question difficulty is rated 7 (0 to 10)
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 0 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 0 (0 or 1)
Question classification: case_based_decision_theory
Expected time (days) until question close: 200
(Carolyn’s note: 200 is just a wild guess. Usually, Canada’s parliamentary contests are quickly counted and settled.)
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate is based on historical election trends, current polling, and public opinion shifts. Typically, opposition parties have about a 40% chance of winning a federal election. The Conservatives face competition from developments such as trade tensions with the US and public opinion challenges from policy platforms not resonating widely.
Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Additional polling data, including voter sentiment analysis and demographics breakdown, would improve forecasting precision. Furthermore, access to predictive market data from platforms like Kalshi or Polymarket would provide insights into real-time market expectations.
Some potential divergent considerations that might afect the base rate:
Public response to the ‘Trump effect’ and Pierre Poilievre’s campaign strategy could diverge sharply from historical patterns, altering voter sentiment. Additionally, unforeseen geopolitical events or economic downturns could affect the election outcome.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party win a majority in the Canadian federal election. About as likely as not
– Conservative policies resonate with key voter demographics impacted by housing affordability and economic concerns. Unlikely
– The ‘Trump effect’ does not negatively affect the Conservative Party’s standing. Unlikely
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.45, “between 172 and 205”: 0.35, “between 206 and 240”: 0.15, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.45, “between 172 and 205”: 0.3, “between 206 and 240”: 0.15, “more than 240”: 0.1] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.3, “between 172 and 205”: 0.35, “between 206 and 240”: 0.25, “more than 240”: 0.1] – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
MAPD: Avg: 0.058333333333333, Max: 0.1
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* less than 172: 43%
* between 172 and 205: 33%
* between 206 and 240: 14%
* more than 240: 10%
The summaries suggest that the Conservative Party of Canada’s prospects in the upcoming election are undermined by several factors. Although their platform of tax cuts, housing affordability, and energy shifts may resonate with key demographics, the so-called ‘Trump effect’ and alignment with controversial U.S. policies could hamper their appeal. Historical trends indicate achieving a majority government is challenging, with polling and current political climate suggesting a minority outcome is more likely. Conservative prospects are further marred by trade tensions with the United States and the absence of a fully costed platform. However, potential shifts in public opinion due to heightened economic concerns or effective distancing from U.S. policies could alter these predictions. Unforeseen events or errors in polling could also impact the electoral landscape significantly.
Guide to Jeremy’s Bots Reports (These don’t all apply to the current version of his bot.)
MAPD: Mean Absolute Percentage Deviation calculates the average percentage difference between actual values and predicted values, providing a relative measure of error.
Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
