Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of June 2025?
Here’s what Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicts today:
Accounting for all factors and avoiding overconfidence, I assess the probability at 23%
53–67 minutes read time
Perplexity response:
{think}
Okay, let’s tackle this query step by step. The user is asking whether a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas will be declared in June 2025. They want a detailed rundown of the most relevant news, prioritizing recent sources and dates. Let me go through the provided search results to gather the necessary information.
First, looking at the dates: the search results include articles from June 24, June 25, and some from earlier in June like June 10 and June 18. The most recent articles are from June 24 and June 25, which are crucial here.
Starting with the first result from Times of Israel (June 25): It mentions that Israel has offered a temporary ceasefire with the release of hostages spread out over time. This suggests ongoing negotiations but with specific conditions. The mention of hostages and a temporary ceasefire with staged releases is a key point. The citation [1] will be important here.
The second result is from Wikipedia, updated on June 22. It details the proposed three-stage ceasefire agreement, including prisoner exchanges and Gaza demilitarization. The third stage would involve ending the blockade and releasing remains. However, there’s a note that Israel’s Prime Minister denied agreeing to end the war prematurely. The UN Security Council Resolution 2735 is mentioned, urging Hamas to accept the proposal. This shows international pressure but also resistance from both sides. Cite this as [2].
The third source from Foreign Policy (June 24) discusses the broader implications of the conflict with Iran and the need for a regional peace deal involving Israel and Palestine. While relevant to the geopolitical context, it doesn’t directly address the June 2025 Hamas ceasefire. However, it does mention the massacre in Gaza and the pressure on Israel to make concessions. Maybe a secondary citation here, but focus on the primary sources about Hamas.
The fourth result from Counter Extremism (June 24) and the fifth from Kulr8 (June 24) both discuss a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, brokered by Trump. This is a different conflict (Iran vs. Israel) but might have spillover effects. However, the user specifically asked about Hamas, so while these are related, they might be less directly relevant. Still, mentioning them as context could be useful, but the main focus should be on Hamas-specific sources.
Putting this together: The most critical recent developments are from the Times of Israel (June 25) and the Wikipedia entry (June 22). The Times article indicates ongoing negotiations with a possible deal within days, while the Wikipedia outlines the proposed stages and the challenges in acceptance, especially from Israel’s side. The UN resolution from June 10 is part of the backdrop, showing international involvement but Hamas’s amendments and Israel’s rebuttals.
Additionally, the Wikimedia entry mentions that on June 21, Hamas prioritized stopping the war, and Netanyahu only accepted a partial ceasefire not ending the war. This indicates a lack of agreement on the full ceasefire. The third stage in the proposal involves ending the blockade, which Israel has resisted, as per the Prime Minister’s denial of ending the war early.
So, synthesizing these points: There are active negotiations, with a temporary ceasefire possibility as per Israel’s offer, but significant hurdles remain. The UN resolution and international pressure are factors, but both sides have unmet demands. The hostages’ release and prisoner exchanges are key points, with staged releases proposed. However, Israel’s insistence on demilitarization and Hamas’s amendments to the proposal (as per their response to the UN resolution) remain unresolved.
In terms of recent updates, the June 25 article suggests a potential deal within days, but given the historical context of failed agreements and the current positions of both sides, there’s uncertainty. The ceasefire might be a temporary truce rather than a comprehensive agreement. Also, the involvement of third parties like Egypt, Qatar, and the UN as supervisors is mentioned, which could influence the success of any agreement.
It’s important to note that while there are proposals and negotiations, a formal ceasefire declaration hasn’t been confirmed yet. The June 25 article implies that it’s possible but dependent on the sequencing of hostage releases and other terms. The Wikipedia entry’s third stage, which ends the blockade, is a major sticking point, as Israel has not agreed to that, according to their statement denying an end to the war before achieving all goals.
Therefore, the answer should highlight the ongoing negotiations, the proposed stages, the key unresolved issues (hostage releases, prisoner exchanges, Gaza demilitarization, blockade), and the international context, particularly the UN resolution and third-party supervision. The most recent sources (June 24 and 25) indicate a potential temporary agreement but with significant challenges, making a comprehensive ceasefire by the end of June uncertain.
**Relevant Sources:**
1. **Ceasefire-hostage deal between Israel and Hamas …**
*Times of Israel, June 25, 2025*
Israel has proposed a temporary ceasefire with hostage releases staged throughout the truce, per Hamas’s demands. The deal would involve IsraelECHOs to release Palestinians and Hamas returning hostages, but sequencing remains unresolved. A mediator suggests an agreement could emerge within days. [1]
2. **2025 Gaza War Ceasefire**
*Wikipedia, June 22, 2025*
A three-stage proposal includes prisoner exchanges, demilitarization of Gaza, and ending the blockade. Israel rejected Hamas’s amendments to the UN-backed May 31 proposal, calling them “total lies.” Hamas insists on a “sustainable calm” and troop withdrawals. Supervision by Egypt, Qatar, and the UN is proposed. [2]
3. **After War With Iran, Israel Can Still Lose the Peace**
*Foreign Policy, June 24, 2025*
Analysts argue Israel’s security establishment must address the Palestinian conflict post-Iran war. Demilitarized Palestinian territories and regional alliances are seen as prerequisites for stability. The Gaza blockade’s humanitarian toll is cited as a barrier to peace. [3]
4. **Eye on Extremism: June 24, 2025**
*Counter Extremism Project, June 24, 2025*
Details ceasefire-related cyber threats from Iran-linked actors, though focused on Israel-Iran tensions, not Hamas. Mentions U.S. involvement in brokering Israel-Iran truce, indirectly highlighting broader regional dynamics. [4]
5. **Shaky Ceasefire Between Israel and Iran Appears to Hold**
*Kulr8, June 24, 2025*
Confirms Israel-Iran ceasefire (unrelated to Hamas) brokered by Trump, with Israel conditioned on no new Iranian attacks. Highlights U.S. mediation but not directly impacting Hamas negotiations. [5]
—
**Key Developments in June 2025:**
– **Ongoing Negotiations**: Israel’s June 25 proposal for a temporary ceasefire with staggered hostage releases represents a potential breakthrough, though sequencing remains contentious[1].
– **UN Resolution (June 10)**: Security Council Resolution 2735 endorsed the May 31 ceasefire draft but faced pushback from Hamas and Israel over troop withdrawals and demilitarization[2].
– **Hamas Priorities**: On June 21, Hamas emphasized immediate cessation of hostilities, while Israel’s Netanyahu ruled out full-scale ceasefire until “all goals” are achieved[2].
– **Third-Party Supervision**: Plans for Egypt, Qatar, and the UN to monitor Gaza reconstruction and disarmament reflect international efforts to stabilize talks, though Israel disputes PA governance capacity[2].
**Critical Hurdles:**
1. **Hostage Release Sequencing**: Israel opposes simultaneous swaps, instead advocating phased releases tied to truce milestones[1][2].
2. **Blockade and Demilitarization**: Israel refuses to lift Gaza restrictions or permit Hamas military reconstruction, while Hamas demands complete withdrawal of Israeli forces[2][3].
3. **Political Obstacles**: Netanyahu’s government dismisses ceasefire terms as compromising national security, per June 19 statements rejecting Hamas amendments[2].
**Probabilistic Outlook:**
A **temporary, partial ceasefire** for humanitarian purposes (e.g., hostages, aid) appears feasible by late June 2025, given mediator optimism and Israel’s concessions[1]. However, a **sustainable, comprehensive agreement** requiring Gaza demilitarization or blockade removal remains unlikely before June ends, as both sides reject core concessions[2][3].
Grok response:
Below is a detailed rundown of the news and context most relevant to the question: “Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of June 2025?” As a research assistant, my role is to provide factual context based on recent and authoritative sources, without producing any forecasts. This question involves a political event, so I have prioritized news articles, official updates, and analyses from reputable outlets covering the Israel-Hamas conflict, including developments in Gaza. I focused on sources from June 2025, emphasizing recent reports of ceasefire negotiations, statements from involved parties, and any indicators of progress or setbacks.
First, I reviewed the available information step by step:
– The question centers on a potential ceasefire declaration between Israel and Hamas specifically, so I filtered for sources discussing Gaza-related conflicts rather than broader Israel-Iran tensions.
– Key elements include recent updates on negotiations, such as proposals from mediators (e.g., US, Egypt, Qatar), official statements, and any data on ongoing talks.
– I prioritized the most recent sources (from June 2025) and looked for authoritative references, such as UN resolutions or official announcements, while noting dates for all citations.
– For resolution criteria, sources like UN Security Council resolutions or official government statements could serve as authoritative, so I incorporated relevant details where available (e.g., from Wikipedia’s page on the 2025 Gaza ceasefire, which references UN Resolution 2735).
– I compiled a variety of sources, including news outlets, to cover different perspectives, and highlighted recent statistics or updates indicating movement toward or away from a ceasefire.
To start, here is a list of 10 citations, drawn from recent web results, news articles, and analyses. Each includes the title, a brief description, the date of publication, and a three-sentence summary of the relevant content:
1. **Title:** Trump announced ceasefire is unclear after Israel reports missiles from Iran
**Description:** An AP News live update on US involvement in Middle East conflicts, focusing on ceasefire announcements and regional tensions.
**Date:** June 24, 2025
**Summary:** This article reports on US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a potential ceasefire, but notes uncertainty due to ongoing missile exchanges involving Iran, which could indirectly affect Hamas-Israel dynamics. It highlights Israel’s warnings to its public amid escalating threats, with no direct confirmation of a Hamas-specific ceasefire. Experts quoted suggest that any broader truce might not extend to Gaza without separate negotiations.
2. **Title:** 2025 Gaza war ceasefire
**Description:** A Wikipedia page summarizing the history and status of ceasefire efforts in the Gaza war, based on international mediation.
**Date:** June 22, 2025 (last updated)
**Summary:** The page details a proposed multi-stage ceasefire plan involving hostage exchanges and a potential end to hostilities, accepted by Hamas in May 2024 and endorsed by the UN Security Council as Resolution 2735 on June 10, 2025. It notes that the plan includes a six-week initial ceasefire and reconstruction efforts, but as of June 2025, implementation has stalled due to disagreements. Recent updates indicate partial progress in talks, though no formal declaration has been made for June 2025.
3. **Title:** US strikes failed to destroy Iran’s nuclear sites, intelligence report says
**Description:** A Reuters article on US intelligence assessments and their implications for regional conflicts, including indirect effects on Gaza.
**Date:** June 25, 2025
**Summary:** The report discusses how US airstrikes on Iranian sites have not resolved underlying tensions, potentially complicating ceasefire efforts in Gaza by escalating broader conflicts. It mentions that intelligence suggests a short-term setback for Iran, but this has not led to direct progress in Israel-Hamas talks. Sources indicate that mediators are pushing for a separate Gaza ceasefire amid these distractions, with no confirmed agreements as of late June.
4. **Title:** June 24, 2025 – Israel-Iran conflict
**Description:** A CNN live news page tracking developments in the Israel-Iran conflict and its spillover effects on Gaza.
**Date:** June 24, 2025
**Summary:** The update covers US President Trump’s claim of a ceasefire announcement, but emphasizes that it does not explicitly include Hamas, focusing instead on Iran. It reports on Israeli military actions in Gaza, including incidents that could derail negotiations, such as recent soldier casualties. Expert analysis from CNN suggests that while talks continue, the lack of a formal Hamas-Israel agreement in June indicates ongoing obstacles.
5. **Title:** US strikes set Iran back by months: early report
**Description:** An AP News article analyzing the impact of US military actions and their relevance to Middle East peace efforts.
**Date:** June 25, 2025
**Summary:** This piece contradicts Trump’s statements by stating that Iran’s capabilities remain intact, potentially prolonging regional instability and affecting Gaza ceasefire prospects. It notes that US officials are separately engaging in Qatar-mediated talks for Hamas, with no breakthroughs reported in June 2025. The article highlights expert opinions warning that without direct de-escalation in Gaza, a full ceasefire is unlikely.
6. **Title:** Israel Gaza war | Latest News & Updates
**Description:** A BBC News overview of ongoing developments in the Israel-Gaza conflict, including ceasefire negotiations.
**Date:** June 25, 2025
**Summary:** The page provides live updates on Gaza hostilities, reporting no official ceasefire declaration as of June 25, despite recent diplomatic efforts. It includes statistics on recent incidents, such as Israeli military operations resulting in casualties, and notes progress in hostage exchange talks. Experts from BBC cite sources indicating “very significant” advancements in negotiations over the past week, though implementation remains uncertain.
7. **Title:** Updates: Trump warns Israel not to attack Iran as fragile ceasefire holds
**Description:** An Al Jazeera news article on ceasefire developments and warnings from US leadership.
**Date:** June 24, 2025
**Summary:** The article details Trump’s calls for restraint amid a fragile ceasefire with Iran, but notes that Hamas-related talks in Gaza are separate and stalled. It reports on potential progress in prisoner exchanges as part of a broader deal, with mediators like Qatar involved. Al Jazeera experts emphasize that while there are signs of movement, no formal ceasefire declaration between Israel and Hamas has been confirmed for June.
8. **Title:** Live Updates: Cease-Fire Enters Second Day as Iran and Israel Both Claim Victory
**Description:** A New York Times live coverage of ceasefire announcements and their regional implications.
**Date:** June 25, 2025 (published approximately 6 hours before this response)
**Summary:** This update reports on a declared ceasefire between Israel and Iran entering its second day, but clarifies that it does not extend to Hamas in Gaza. It includes data on recent Gaza incidents, such as seven Israeli soldiers killed in southern Gaza on June 24, which could hinder negotiations. The Times quotes analysts warning that ongoing violence in Gaza makes a June ceasefire unlikely without immediate concessions.
9. **Title:** June 23, 2025 – Israel-Iran conflict
**Description:** A CNN article on the latest conflict updates and ceasefire prospects.
**Date:** June 23, 2025
**Summary:** The piece announces Trump’s ceasefire declaration but stresses that Hamas has not been included, with negotiations ongoing but inconclusive. It references a US-proposed 60-day plan for Gaza, showing partial acceptance from Hamas but rejection from Israel. Experts indicate that recent escalations, including missile strikes, have shifted focus away from a June declaration.
10. **Title:** US-Israel-Iran conflict: List of key events, June 24, 2025
**Description:** An Al Jazeera summary of key events in the conflict, with ties to Gaza ceasefire efforts.
**Date:** June 24, 2025
**Summary:** The list outlines events leading to a ceasefire announcement, noting that Hamas-related talks in Gaza remain unresolved despite broader diplomatic pushes. It includes details on UN-mediated proposals, such as Resolution 2735, which calls for a halt in hostilities. Analysts featured suggest that while there is optimism from mediators, the absence of a formal agreement by late June points to continued challenges.
### Detailed Rundown of Relevant News and Context
Based on the citations above, the news surrounding a potential ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in June 2025 shows a mix of diplomatic efforts and obstacles, with no confirmed declaration as of June 25, 2025. Recent updates indicate ongoing negotiations mediated by the US, Egypt, and Qatar, including a multi-stage plan outlined in UN Security Council Resolution 2735 (adopted June 10, 2025), which proposes a six-week initial ceasefire, hostage releases, and reconstruction. For instance, sources like the BBC and Al Jazeera report “very significant” progress in talks over the past week, including potential prisoner exchanges, but highlight setbacks from recent violence in Gaza, such as Israeli military incidents resulting in casualties (e.g., seven soldiers killed on June 24, as per The New York Times).
Key recent statistics and data include:
– **Hostage and prisoner exchange data**: Wikipedia and Al Jazeera reference the original proposal’s framework, with Hamas accepting it in May 2024, but no updates on actual exchanges in June 2025, suggesting stagnation.
– **Escalation indicators**: AP News and CNN report on missile exchanges and military actions that could derail talks, with expert opinions from US intelligence assessments (as in Reuters) warning that broader regional tensions might delay a Gaza-specific ceasefire.
– **Movement toward resolution**: Several sources, including BBC and The New York Times, note positive developments in negotiations, such as a US-proposed 60-day plan, but emphasize that Israel’s objectives (e.g., dismantling Hamas capabilities) remain unmet, as indicated in recent analyses.
Expert opinions from authoritative sources, such as those cited in CNN and Al Jazeera, suggest that while mediators are optimistic, the ceasefire’s fragility—evidenced by ongoing Gaza operations—makes a declaration unlikely without immediate concessions. For historical context, the past year’s data shows seasonal fluctuations in conflict intensity, with escalations often peaking in summer months like June due to operational factors, but no direct year-over-year comparisons are available in the reviewed sources. Overall, this context provides a balanced view from varied outlets, helping inform the superforecaster’s analysis without drawing conclusions.
AskNews Deep Usage:
prompt_tokens=17373 completion_tokens=2350 total_tokens=0
AskNews Deep Search Response:
**10 Relevant Citations with Summaries:**
1. **[2]** *”Medio Oriente: Hamas, intensificati i colloqui con i mediatori”* (June 25, 2025 – ANSA.it)
Negotiations between Hamas and Israel have intensified, mediated by Egypt and Qatar. Hamas refuses to disarm, while Israel continues military operations, including recent strikes in Gaza that killed 41 Palestinians.
2. **[5]** *”Mediator: Ceasefire-hostage deal between Israel and Hamas possible ‘within days’”* (June 25, 2025 – Times of Israel)
Mediator Bishara Bahbah expressed optimism for a deal “within days,” though disagreements persist over wording regarding a permanent ceasefire. Qatar’s PM noted indirect talks could resume soon based on a U.S.-drafted proposal.
3. **[13]** *”ما مصير حرب غزة بعد اتفاق وقف إطلاق النار بين إيران و”إسرائيل”؟”* (June 24, 2025 – Alkhaleej Online)
Israeli officials signaled a Gaza focus after the Iran ceasefire. Finance Minister Smotrich urged “eliminating Hamas,” while Hamas demanded guarantees for war termination. Over 860 Gazans killed since mid-June [9].
4. **[21]** *”Катар пытается помирить ХАМАС и Израиль”* (June 24, 2025 – Insan Haqları Uğrunda)
Qatar’s PM warned Israel against exploiting the Iran ceasefire to escalate Gaza attacks. Talks aim to resume within days, but previous rounds failed due to Israeli strikes on Iran.
5. **[14]** *”عودة مفاوضات غزة إلى الواجهة ومصر تُطالب إسرائيل بإرسال وفد رسمي إلى القاهرة للتفاوض”* (June 24, 2025 – Almaghribtoday)
Egypt urged Israel to send negotiators to Cairo. Hamas sent delegates to Egypt, with talks focusing on prisoner swaps and aid. Death toll in Gaza exceeds 50,000 since October 2023.
6. **[9]** *”Israel acordó un cese del fuego con Irán. ¿Podría ser el de Gaza el siguiente?”* (June 24, 2025 – ABC17NEWS)
Hostage families and Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid pressured Netanyahu to extend the Iran ceasefire to Gaza. Hamas insists on war termination as a precondition.
7. **[6]** *”Donald Trump, Benjamin Netanyahu and the new Middle East”* (June 25, 2025 – Financial Times)
Trump’s role in the Iran ceasefire created momentum, but Netanyahu rejected Western pressure to concede to Hamas. Qatar hopes talks resume within two days.
8. **[4]** *”이스라엘-이란 갈등 봉합됐는데…가자 휴전 협상, 급물살 탈까”* (June 25, 2025 – NEWSIS)
IDF Chief Zamir prioritized Gaza operations post-Iran ceasefire. Hamas remains open to talks but refuses disarmament. UN condemned Israel’s actions as potential war crimes.
9. **[23]** *”Qatar, colloqui indiretti Hamas-Israele per tregua a Gaza”* (June 24, 2025 – ANSA.it)
Qatar’s PM confirmed indirect talks would occur within two days, urging Israel not to escalate. Lebanese PM Salam echoed support for mediation.
10. **[25]** *”В Катаре сообщили. что ХАМАС и Израиль планируют провести непрямые переговоры”* (June 24, 2025 – Рамблер)
Qatari mediators reiterated plans for talks, stressing Israel must avoid exploiting the Iran truce. Hamas seeks guarantees for a permanent ceasefire.
—
**Key Developments and Context:**
– **Recent Momentum** (June 24–25): Mediators from Qatar, Egypt, and the U.S. report breakthroughs, with talks expected within days [5][21][25]. However, disputes over wording (e.g., “permanent” vs. “temporary” ceasefire) remain unresolved [5][13].
– **Israeli Position**: Netanyahu insists Hamas must surrender and release hostages first, rejecting upfront commitments to end the war ([9][13]). Military operations continue, with 860+ Gazan deaths reported since mid-June [9][13].
– **Hamas Demands**: Willing to negotiate but refuses disarmament and demands guarantees for Israeli withdrawal and war termination [13][24][25].
– **International Pressure**: UN, Canada, Italy, and Arab states urge a ceasefire, citing Gaza’s humanitarian crisis (55,000+ deaths since 2023) and potential famine [9][10][27].
– **U.S. Influence**: Trump’s Iran ceasefire deal [11] raised hopes, but Israeli officials downplay linkage to Gaza [13].
**Critical Factors to Watch (as of June 25):**
1. Whether Israel agrees to a binding timeline for ending hostilities.
2. Hamas’s flexibility on disarmament.
3. Mediators’ ability to bridge wording gaps in proposals.
**Limitations**:
– No direct access to confidential negotiation drafts.
– Hamas and Israel’s public positions may differ from behind-the-scenes concessions.
**Resolution Source**: The conflict would likely hinge on mutual acceptance of terms mediated by Qatar/Egypt, with U.S. oversight. Current timelines suggest a declaration is possible by June’s end but remains contingent on last-minute compromises.
GPT News Summary:
As of June 25, 2025, there is heightened international attention and speculation regarding the possibility of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, following the recent ceasefire between Israel and Iran. Here’s a detailed rundown of recent developments:
1. **Ceasefire Between Iran and Israel**: A ceasefire between Iran and Israel has been declared, effective June 24, 2025. This was mediated by U.S. President Donald Trump, concluding a 12-day military conflict focused on Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities (LiveMint, June 25, 2025; DevDiscourse, June 24, 2025). Both Iran and Israel have reserved the right to respond to any ceasefire violations (Em.com.br, June 25, 2025).
2. **Shifting Focus to Gaza**: With the Iran ceasefire, Israeli military efforts are now redirected towards the conflict with Hamas in Gaza. The Israeli military has heightened activities in Gaza, resulting in recent casualties, with at least 44 Palestinians killed during an operation on June 24, 2025 (Terra, June 24, 2025; LiveMint, June 25, 2025).
3. **International Diplomacy and Humanitarian Concerns**: Key international figures, including French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, have called for a ceasefire in Gaza (Sky News Arabia, June 24, 2025). Additionally, Qatar has expressed intentions to resume indirect ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas (La Tercera, June 24, 2025).
4. **UN Efforts and Resolutions**: The United Nations General Assembly adopted a resolution on June 12, 2025, advocating for an immediate and unconditional ceasefire in Gaza and improved humanitarian access. Despite this, the resolution was opposed by the U.S. and Israel and lacks binding authority (Mainichi, June 13, 2025; Times of Israel, June 12, 2025).
5. **Calls for an Expanded Ceasefire**: Several parties, including the Hostages and Missing Families Forum and various Israeli politicians, are pushing for the Iran ceasefire model to extend to Gaza, leveraged by the international diplomatic engagements (LiveMint, June 25, 2025; La Tercera, June 24, 2025).
6. **Current Hostilities and Blockades**: Despite previous ceasefires earlier in 2025, tensions remain high with ongoing military engagements. Recent Israeli actions in Gaza and the West Bank, including drone strikes, contribute to a tense and precarious situation on the ground (Amanda Borschel-Dan articles, June 24, 2025).
7. **Humanitarian and Casualty Data**: The humanitarian situation in Gaza remains dire, with over 55,998 fatalities reported according to the Gaza Health Ministry, indicating the urgent need for an intervention (Sky News Arabia, June 24, 2025).
In summary, while the ceasefire between Iran and Israel has provided a model for diplomatic resolution, the situation in Gaza remains unresolved and contentious, with ongoing military engagements and strong international advocacy for a ceasefire that remains challenging to achieve within the imminent deadline.
Extracted resolution criteria links:
[]
________________________
Anthropic Binary response:
# Reasoning on Israel-Hamas Ceasefire in June 2025
## Analysis Framework
I’m evaluating the probability of a ceasefire declaration between Israel and Hamas by June 30, 2025, with today being June 25th. This gives only 5 days for this event to occur. This is clearly an “Other Binary Outcome Event” requiring careful analysis of ongoing negotiations and historical patterns.
## Current Situation Assessment
Based on the research assistants’ reports, here’s what we know:
1. **Active negotiations are ongoing** with mediators expressing optimism about a deal “within days” (Times of Israel, June 25). Qatar’s PM indicated indirect talks could resume within two days.
2. **Sticking points remain substantial**:
– Sequencing of hostage releases vs. Palestinian prisoner releases
– Hamas demands for complete IDF withdrawal and “sustainable calm”
– Israel’s refusal to end the war prematurely or lift the Gaza blockade
– Disagreements over wording (permanent vs. temporary ceasefire)
3. **Recent Iran-Israel ceasefire** (June 24) creates both opportunity and complexity:
– Some hope it provides momentum for Gaza ceasefire
– Others note Israel may now refocus military efforts on Gaza
– Recent Gaza casualties (41-44 Palestinians killed on June 24) indicate continued operations
4. **International pressure** is significant with UN Resolution 2735 (June 10) endorsing a ceasefire proposal, and countries like France and Germany calling for an end to hostilities.
## Time Constraints Analysis
With only 5 days remaining in June, the window is extremely narrow. The research indicates:
– Mediators suggest an agreement could emerge “within days” (Times of Israel, June 25)
– Qatar’s PM confirmed indirect talks would occur “within two days” (June 24 report)
– Previous rounds of negotiations have failed despite similar optimism
– Implementation of agreements typically takes longer than reaching them
## Historical Patterns
Similar Gaza ceasefires historically:
– Often take weeks or months to negotiate fully
– Frequently collapse before formal implementation
– Require extensive back-and-forth on terms and conditions
– Are influenced by broader regional dynamics (Iran situation)
## Key Assumptions and Their Probabilities
1. **Assumption: Mediator optimism reflects genuine breakthrough potential**
– Probability this is incorrect: 60%
– Mediators have incentives to project optimism even when gaps remain substantial
– “Within days” statements often prove overly optimistic in Middle East negotiations
2. **Assumption: The Iran ceasefire creates momentum for Gaza**
– Probability this is incorrect: 70%
– Evidence suggests Israel may actually intensify Gaza operations now
– Netanyahu has explicitly separated the two conflicts in statements
3. **Assumption: The remaining negotiation gaps can be bridged quickly**
– Probability this is incorrect: 75%
– Core issues (permanent withdrawal, Hamas disarmament) have been intractable for months
– Recent casualties suggest continued military operations rather than de-escalation
## Probability Distribution Analysis
For a June 2025 ceasefire declaration:
– Very optimistic scenario: Agreement reached June 26-27, announced by June 30 (~10% chance)
– Realistic scenario: Talks progress but no formal declaration by June 30 (~75% chance)
– Pessimistic scenario: Talks collapse completely due to violence (~15% chance)
For different timeframes:
– By mid-July 2025: ~30% probability
– By end of July 2025: ~45% probability
– By end of August 2025: ~60% probability
## Synthesizing the Evidence
The most compelling evidence for a ceasefire by June 30 comes from mediator statements about talks resuming “within days” and potential breakthroughs. However, this must be balanced against:
1. Only 5 days remain in June
2. Major substantive disagreements persist (complete withdrawal, permanent vs. temporary ceasefire)
3. Recent military operations and casualties indicate ongoing conflict
4. Netanyahu’s government has explicitly rejected ending the war prematurely
5. Hamas continues to demand guarantees Israel has been unwilling to provide
A temporary, limited humanitarian pause seems more plausible than a comprehensive ceasefire agreement, but even this would be challenging to finalize in 5 days given the history of negotiations.
## Final Assessment
While there is legitimate momentum in negotiations and international pressure for a ceasefire, the combination of entrenched positions, recent military escalation, and the extremely limited timeframe make a formal ceasefire declaration by June 30th unlikely. The core issues dividing the parties (permanent withdrawal, Hamas disarmament, blockade lifting) have remained unresolved for months despite multiple rounds of talks.
I assess that while talks will likely continue and may eventually bear fruit, the probability of a formal ceasefire declaration between Israel and Hamas in the remaining days of June 2025 is low.
Probability: 23%
The extracted probability is: 23%
________________________
Anthropic Binary response:
# Analysis: Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in June 2025?
## Current Situation Assessment
Based on the research provided, we have multiple sources indicating ongoing negotiations between Israel and Hamas as of June 25, 2025, with only 5 days remaining in the month. Key points:
1. **Active negotiations**: Multiple sources confirm talks are ongoing, with mediators from Qatar, Egypt, and the US involved.
2. **Recent developments**: A mediator expressed optimism on June 25 that a deal could emerge “within days” [Research Assistant 1, Source 1].
3. **Specific proposal structure**: A three-stage proposal includes prisoner exchanges, demilitarization of Gaza, and eventually ending the blockade [RA1, Source 2].
4. **Sequencing disputes**: Disagreements persist over the sequencing of hostage releases and whether the ceasefire would be temporary or permanent [RA2, Source 5].
5. **Recent momentum**: Qatar’s PM indicated indirect talks could resume “within days” (potentially within 1-2 days per RA2, Source 6).
6. **Iran ceasefire context**: A separate ceasefire between Israel and Iran was recently declared (June 24), potentially freeing Israel to focus more on Gaza [RA3].
## Time Constraints
With only 5 days remaining in June 2025 (from June 25 to June 30), the window for declaring a ceasefire is extremely narrow. For a ceasefire to be declared:
– Negotiations would need to conclude successfully
– Both parties would need to formally agree to terms
– A public announcement would need to be made
## Key Obstacles
Several significant barriers stand in the way of a June ceasefire:
1. **Fundamental disagreements**:
– Hamas demands complete Israeli withdrawal and war termination guarantees [RA2]
– Israel refuses to end the war prematurely and insists on Gaza demilitarization [RA1, Source 2]
– Wording disputes over “permanent” vs. “temporary” ceasefire [RA2, Source 5]
2. **Recent violence**:
– Israel continues military operations in Gaza with recent casualties [RA2, RA3]
– At least 44 Palestinians were killed on June 24 [RA3]
– Seven Israeli soldiers were killed in southern Gaza on June 24 [RA3, Source 8]
3. **Political constraints**:
– Netanyahu has rejected Hamas amendments and refuses to end the war before achieving all goals [RA1, Source 2]
– Finance Minister Smotrich is urging “eliminating Hamas” [RA2, Source 13]
## Favorable Factors
Elements that increase the likelihood of a June ceasefire:
1. **Mediator optimism**: A mediator suggested an agreement could emerge “within days” [RA1, Source 1]
2. **Momentum from Iran ceasefire**: The recent Israel-Iran ceasefire may create diplomatic momentum [RA2, Source 6]
3. **International pressure**: UN resolutions, humanitarian concerns, and pressure from allies [RA1, RA3]
4. **Domestic Israeli pressure**: Hostage families and opposition leader Yair Lapid are pressing for a ceasefire [RA2, Source 9]
## Historical Context
Previous ceasefire negotiations in this conflict have often taken weeks or months to finalize, with multiple false starts and breakdowns. The current negotiations have been ongoing for months with incremental progress.
## Probability Assessment
**Base rate considerations**:
– Ceasefire agreements typically take longer than 5 days to finalize from the point of active negotiations
– Previous ceasefire attempts in this conflict have frequently failed
– Even when progress is reported, final agreements often face last-minute obstacles
**Time pressure analysis**:
With only 5 days remaining, we need to assess the probability of completing all necessary steps in this timeframe:
1. Resolving fundamental disagreements: 30-40% probability
2. Drafting agreeable terms: 40-50% probability if step 1 succeeds
3. Formal acceptance by both parties: 50-60% probability if steps 1-2 succeed
4. Public declaration before July 1: 80-90% probability if steps 1-3 succeed
Combined sequential probability: ~12-18%
**Key assumptions that could alter forecast**:
1. **Assumption**: Current negotiations are genuinely close to resolution (60% confidence)
– If incorrect (40% chance), probability drops to ~5%
2. **Assumption**: Netanyahu’s government will maintain its stated position on Hamas conditions (70% confidence)
– If incorrect (30% chance), probability increases to ~25%
3. **Assumption**: No major escalation will occur to derail talks (65% confidence)
– If incorrect (35% chance), probability drops to ~3%
**Adjusting for overconfidence**: The extremely short timeframe, combined with significant remaining obstacles, suggests a cautious estimate is warranted.
Given all factors, the most likely outcome is that negotiations will continue past June 30 without a formal ceasefire declaration, though progress may continue to be made. A partial, temporary agreement is more likely than a comprehensive one, but even that faces significant hurdles to be finalized in the next 5 days.
Probability: 15%
The extracted probability is: 15%
________________________
Anthropic Binary response:
# Forecasting Rationale: Israel-Hamas Ceasefire in June 2025
## Question Analysis
I’m evaluating whether a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas will be declared in the period from June 25, 2025 (today) to June 30, 2025 (resolution date). This is a binary outcome event with a very short timeframe of just 6 days remaining.
## Key Evidence Synthesis
### Current Negotiation Status
1. **Active negotiations** are underway with mediators from Qatar, Egypt, and the US reporting “breakthroughs” and indicating talks could resume “within days” (June 24-25 reports)
2. **Temporary ceasefire proposal** from Israel (June 25) includes staggered hostage releases, showing some flexibility
3. **Mediator optimism**: A mediator stated a deal could be possible “within days” (Times of Israel, June 25)
4. **Qatar’s Prime Minister** confirmed indirect talks would occur within two days (June 24)
### Major Obstacles
1. **Fundamental disagreements** persist over:
– Sequencing of hostage/prisoner releases
– Permanent vs. temporary ceasefire wording
– Hamas demands for complete Israeli withdrawal
– Israel’s insistence on Hamas disarmament
2. **Ongoing military operations**: Israel continues strikes in Gaza with 41-44 Palestinians reported killed on June 24
3. **Netanyahu’s stance**: Israeli PM has rejected “ending the war prematurely” and insists Hamas must surrender first
4. **Historical pattern**: Multiple previous negotiation rounds have failed
### Contextual Factors
1. **Iran ceasefire influence**: A separate Israel-Iran ceasefire was just declared (June 24), potentially creating diplomatic momentum but also allowing Israel to refocus on Gaza
2. **International pressure**: UN Resolution 2735 (June 10) and diplomatic efforts from US, Qatar, Egypt urge ceasefire
3. **Humanitarian crisis**: Reports of 50,000-55,000+ Gaza deaths increase pressure for resolution
## Base Rate Analysis
Based on historical Israel-Hamas conflicts:
– Previous ceasefire negotiations have typically taken weeks/months to conclude
– Final agreements often follow multiple failed rounds
– Ceasefires frequently emerge after significant escalations
– Short-term humanitarian pauses are more common than comprehensive agreements
## Time Constraints Analysis
With only 6 days remaining in June:
– Negotiations described as potentially resuming “within days” would leave minimal time for resolution
– Complex issues like sequencing of hostage releases typically require extended technical negotiations
– Drafting, translating, and formal acceptance of documents takes additional time
– Any further military incidents could derail the process
## Key Uncertainties/Assumptions
1. **Mediator accuracy** (60% confidence): Statements about talks resuming “within days” and deals being possible “within days” may be diplomatic optimism rather than reflecting true progress
2. **Netanyahu’s flexibility** (30% confidence): Whether Israel’s PM would accept ceasefire terms before achieving complete military objectives is questionable given his public statements
3. **Scope definition** (70% confidence): A limited humanitarian pause or hostage exchange might occur but not qualify as a full “ceasefire” as commonly understood
## Probability Distribution Analysis
I need to assess the likelihood of a ceasefire declaration in the next 6 days:
– **Extremely likely scenario (1-5%)**: Breakthrough occurs immediately, with all parties making major concessions and announcement within days
– **Somewhat likely scenario (10-25%)**: Partial/temporary ceasefire focused on hostage exchange is declared
– **Base case scenario (70-85%)**: Negotiations continue but no formal declaration occurs before July
– **Low probability scenario (5%)**: Complete breakdown of talks due to military escalation
Given the extremely short timeframe (6 days), the complexity of remaining issues, and the historical pattern of protracted negotiations, the most probable outcome is that no formal ceasefire will be declared before July 1.
## Mathematical Adjustment for Overconfidence
The base scenario (no ceasefire by June 30) appears to have approximately 75-80% probability. However, accounting for my historical overconfidence and the fact that negotiations show some momentum, I should adjust downward.
## Final Calibrated Assessment
There are legitimate signs of progress in negotiations, but fundamental disagreements and the extremely short timeframe make a declaration in the next 6 days unlikely. A partial or temporary arrangement focused on hostage exchange seems most plausible in the short term, but even this would require rapid resolution of sequencing disputes.
Given that only 6 days remain, the short window significantly constrains the probability of resolution. Even with the reported momentum, getting from “talks within days” to a formal declaration would require an unusually rapid process compared to historical patterns.
Probability: 22%
The extracted probability is: 22%
Gemini Binary response:
Rationale:
1. **Time Sensitivity and Recent Developments:** The question asks for a ceasefire declaration specifically in June 2025, with today’s date being June 25, 2025. This leaves only 5-6 days for such a declaration to occur. Multiple recent sources (June 24-25, 2025) indicate intensified negotiations and express cautious optimism. Mediators, including one cited by the Times of Israel, suggest a deal could emerge “within days”. Qatar’s Prime Minister also noted that indirect talks were expected to resume “within two days”. This timeline strongly suggests active efforts to finalize an agreement by the end of the month.
2. **Nature of “Ceasefire Declared”:** The resolution criteria simply require a “ceasefire declared,” not necessarily a comprehensive, permanent, or successful one. Israel’s recent proposal for a “temporary ceasefire with hostage releases staged throughout the truce” fits this criterion. This lower bar for what constitutes a “declared ceasefire” increases the probability of such an event compared to a full cessation of hostilities.
3. **Persistent Obstacles and Disagreements:** Despite the optimistic pronouncements, significant hurdles remain. Hamas reportedly refuses to disarm and insists on a “sustainable calm” with troop withdrawals, while Israel rejects these amendments and maintains its goal of eliminating Hamas. Disagreements also persist over the precise wording regarding a permanent ceasefire and the sequencing of hostage releases versus prisoner exchanges. Ongoing military operations and casualties in Gaza, including the killing of 7 Israeli soldiers on June 24, underscore the deep divisions and potential for derailment.
4. **Distinction from Iran-Israel Ceasefire:** It is crucial to note that the recently declared ceasefire between Israel and Iran, while a positive regional development, does not directly apply to the conflict with Hamas in Gaza. Multiple sources clarify that the Hamas-Israel negotiations are separate and distinct [4_RA3, 8_RA3]. Therefore, the success of the Iran-Israel ceasefire offers limited direct predictive power for a Hamas-Israel agreement.
5. **Historical Precedent and Overconfidence Adjustment:** The history of ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas is fraught with difficulties, frequent breakdowns, and often results in temporary or short-lived truces. While the current “within days” optimism from mediators is a positive signal, it must be weighed against this challenging historical context and the persistent, fundamental disagreements. As an expert superforecaster, I must compensate for potential overconfidence, especially given the historical tendency for questions to resolve negatively. The tight deadline also adds pressure and complexity.
**Assumptions and Probabilities of Incorrectness:**
1. **Assumption: The “within days” optimism expressed by mediators is a reliable indicator of a high probability of a declaration within June.**
* Probability of incorrectness: 40%. Mediators often use such language to create pressure and momentum, but last-minute breakdowns are common in highly complex and sensitive negotiations where fundamental demands remain unmet. If this optimism is misplaced, the probability of a June declaration would be significantly lower.
2. **Assumption: The current level of military activity and recent casualties will not cause a complete derailment of the ongoing negotiations in the immediate short term.**
* Probability of incorrectness: 25%. High-stakes conflicts are highly sensitive to ground realities. Significant casualties can harden positions on both sides, leading to a breakdown in talks or a pause, making a declaration by the end of June unlikely.
3. **Assumption: A temporary, limited ceasefire (e.g., solely for hostage release) would qualify as “a ceasefire declared” for the resolution of this question.**
* Probability of incorrectness: 10%. Based on the wording, this seems to be the most reasonable interpretation. If a broader, more comprehensive agreement were implicitly required, the probability would be drastically lower.
**Conclusion:**
While there is clear momentum and optimism from mediators regarding a potential deal “within days,” the fundamental disagreements between Israel and Hamas, coupled with the extremely tight timeframe (5-6 days remaining in June) and the ongoing violence, present substantial obstacles. A temporary or partial ceasefire is more likely than a comprehensive one, but even that requires overcoming significant political and logistical hurdles. Balancing the cautious optimism from mediators with the historical difficulty and current unresolved issues, a declaration in June is possible but remains less than probable.
Probability: 45%
The extracted probability is: 45%
All predictions: [15, 22, 23, 45]
Filtered predictions: [22, 23]
Median reasoning:
# Reasoning on Israel-Hamas Ceasefire in June 2025
## Analysis Framework
I’m evaluating the probability of a ceasefire declaration between Israel and Hamas by June 30, 2025, with today being June 25th. This gives only 5 days for this event to occur. This is clearly an “Other Binary Outcome Event” requiring careful analysis of ongoing negotiations and historical patterns.
## Current Situation Assessment
Based on the research assistants’ reports, here’s what we know:
1. **Active negotiations are ongoing** with mediators expressing optimism about a deal “within days” (Times of Israel, June 25). Qatar’s PM indicated indirect talks could resume within two days.
2. **Sticking points remain substantial**:
– Sequencing of hostage releases vs. Palestinian prisoner releases
– Hamas demands for complete IDF withdrawal and “sustainable calm”
– Israel’s refusal to end the war prematurely or lift the Gaza blockade
– Disagreements over wording (permanent vs. temporary ceasefire)
3. **Recent Iran-Israel ceasefire** (June 24) creates both opportunity and complexity:
– Some hope it provides momentum for Gaza ceasefire
– Others note Israel may now refocus military efforts on Gaza
– Recent Gaza casualties (41-44 Palestinians killed on June 24) indicate continued operations
4. **International pressure** is significant with UN Resolution 2735 (June 10) endorsing a ceasefire proposal, and countries like France and Germany calling for an end to hostilities.
## Time Constraints Analysis
With only 5 days remaining in June, the window is extremely narrow. The research indicates:
– Mediators suggest an agreement could emerge “within days” (Times of Israel, June 25)
– Qatar’s PM confirmed indirect talks would occur “within two days” (June 24 report)
– Previous rounds of negotiations have failed despite similar optimism
– Implementation of agreements typically takes longer than reaching them
## Historical Patterns
Similar Gaza ceasefires historically:
– Often take weeks or months to negotiate fully
– Frequently collapse before formal implementation
– Require extensive back-and-forth on terms and conditions
– Are influenced by broader regional dynamics (Iran situation)
## Key Assumptions and Their Probabilities
1. **Assumption: Mediator optimism reflects genuine breakthrough potential**
– Probability this is incorrect: 60%
– Mediators have incentives to project optimism even when gaps remain substantial
– “Within days” statements often prove overly optimistic in Middle East negotiations
2. **Assumption: The Iran ceasefire creates momentum for Gaza**
– Probability this is incorrect: 70%
– Evidence suggests Israel may actually intensify Gaza operations now
– Netanyahu has explicitly separated the two conflicts in statements
3. **Assumption: The remaining negotiation gaps can be bridged quickly**
– Probability this is incorrect: 75%
– Core issues (permanent withdrawal, Hamas disarmament) have been intractable for months
– Recent casualties suggest continued military operations rather than de-escalation
## Probability Distribution Analysis
For a June 2025 ceasefire declaration:
– Very optimistic scenario: Agreement reached June 26-27, announced by June 30 (~10% chance)
– Realistic scenario: Talks progress but no formal declaration by June 30 (~75% chance)
– Pessimistic scenario: Talks collapse completely due to violence (~15% chance)
For different timeframes:
– By mid-July 2025: ~30% probability
– By end of July 2025: ~45% probability
– By end of August 2025: ~60% probability
## Synthesizing the Evidence
The most compelling evidence for a ceasefire by June 30 comes from mediator statements about talks resuming “within days” and potential breakthroughs. However, this must be balanced against:
1. Only 5 days remain in June
2. Major substantive disagreements persist (complete withdrawal, permanent vs. temporary ceasefire)
3. Recent military operations and casualties indicate ongoing conflict
4. Netanyahu’s government has explicitly rejected ending the war prematurely
5. Hamas continues to demand guarantees Israel has been unwilling to provide
A temporary, limited humanitarian pause seems more plausible than a comprehensive ceasefire agreement, but even this would be challenging to finalize in 5 days given the history of negotiations.
## Final Assessment
While there is legitimate momentum in negotiations and international pressure for a ceasefire, the combination of entrenched positions, recent military escalation, and the extremely limited timeframe make a formal ceasefire declaration by June 30th unlikely. The core issues dividing the parties (permanent withdrawal, Hamas disarmament, blockade lifting) have remained unresolved for months despite multiple rounds of talks.
I assess that while talks will likely continue and may eventually bear fruit, the probability of a formal ceasefire declaration between Israel and Hamas in the remaining days of June 2025 is low.
Probability: 23%
=== Forecast Result ===
{
“probability_yes”: 0.225,
“probability_yes_per_category”: null,
“continuous_cdf”: null
}
=== Reasoning ===
# Reasoning on Israel-Hamas Ceasefire in June 2025
## Analysis Framework
I’m evaluating the probability of a ceasefire declaration between Israel and Hamas by June 30, 2025, with today being June 25th. This gives only 5 days for this event to occur. This is clearly an “Other Binary Outcome Event” requiring careful analysis of ongoing negotiations and historical patterns.
## Current Situation Assessment
Based on the research assistants’ reports, here’s what we know:
1. **Active negotiations are ongoing** with mediators expressing optimism about a deal “within days” (Times of Israel, June 25). Qatar’s PM indicated indirect talks could resume within two days.
2. **Sticking points remain substantial**:
– Sequencing of hostage releases vs. Palestinian prisoner releases
– Hamas demands for complete IDF withdrawal and “sustainable calm”
– Israel’s refusal to end the war prematurely or lift the Gaza blockade
– Disagreements over wording (permanent vs. temporary ceasefire)
3. **Recent Iran-Israel ceasefire** (June 24) creates both opportunity and complexity:
– Some hope it provides momentum for Gaza ceasefire
– Others note Israel may now refocus military efforts on Gaza
– Recent Gaza casualties (41-44 Palestinians killed on June 24) indicate continued operations
4. **International pressure** is significant with UN Resolution 2735 (June 10) endorsing a ceasefire proposal, and countries like France and Germany calling for an end to hostilities.
## Time Constraints Analysis
With only 5 days remaining in June, the window is extremely narrow. The research indicates:
– Mediators suggest an agreement could emerge “within days” (Times of Israel, June 25)
– Qatar’s PM confirmed indirect talks would occur “within two days” (June 24 report)
– Previous rounds of negotiations have failed despite similar optimism
– Implementation of agreements typically takes longer than reaching them
## Historical Patterns
Similar Gaza ceasefires historically:
– Often take weeks or months to negotiate fully
– Frequently collapse before formal implementation
– Require extensive back-and-forth on terms and conditions
– Are influenced by broader regional dynamics (Iran situation)
## Key Assumptions and Their Probabilities
1. **Assumption: Mediator optimism reflects genuine breakthrough potential**
– Probability this is incorrect: 60%
– Mediators have incentives to project optimism even when gaps remain substantial
– “Within days” statements often prove overly optimistic in Middle East negotiations
2. **Assumption: The Iran ceasefire creates momentum for Gaza**
– Probability this is incorrect: 70%
– Evidence suggests Israel may actually intensify Gaza operations now
– Netanyahu has explicitly separated the two conflicts in statements
3. **Assumption: The remaining negotiation gaps can be bridged quickly**
– Probability this is incorrect: 75%
– Core issues (permanent withdrawal, Hamas disarmament) have been intractable for months
– Recent casualties suggest continued military operations rather than de-escalation
## Probability Distribution Analysis
For a June 2025 ceasefire declaration:
– Very optimistic scenario: Agreement reached June 26-27, announced by June 30 (~10% chance)
– Realistic scenario: Talks progress but no formal declaration by June 30 (~75% chance)
– Pessimistic scenario: Talks collapse completely due to violence (~15% chance)
For different timeframes:
– By mid-July 2025: ~30% probability
– By end of July 2025: ~45% probability
– By end of August 2025: ~60% probability
## Synthesizing the Evidence
The most compelling evidence for a ceasefire by June 30 comes from mediator statements about talks resuming “within days” and potential breakthroughs. However, this must be balanced against:
1. Only 5 days remain in June
2. Major substantive disagreements persist (complete withdrawal, permanent vs. temporary ceasefire)
3. Recent military operations and casualties indicate ongoing conflict
4. Netanyahu’s government has explicitly rejected ending the war prematurely
5. Hamas continues to demand guarantees Israel has been unwilling to provide
A temporary, limited humanitarian pause seems more plausible than a comprehensive ceasefire agreement, but even this would be challenging to finalize in 5 days given the history of negotiations.
## Final Assessment
While there is legitimate momentum in negotiations and international pressure for a ceasefire, the combination of entrenched positions, recent military escalation, and the extremely limited timeframe make a formal ceasefire declaration by June 30th unlikely. The core issues dividing the parties (permanent withdrawal, Hamas disarmament, blockade lifting) have remained unresolved for months despite multiple rounds of talks.
I assess that while talks will likely continue and may eventually bear fruit, the probability of a formal ceasefire declaration between Israel and Hamas in the remaining days of June 2025 is low.
Probability: 23%
Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy ’s bots —>
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/longform/2023/10/9/israel-hamas-war-in-maps-and-charts-live-tracker
