Israel/Hamas Ceasefire? Botmaster Phil Godzin’s forecast of June 25, 2025

Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of June 2025?

Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai bot predicts today: 23%
19–25 minutes read time

Perplexity response:
{think}

1. **Ceasefire-hostage deal between Israel and Hamas …**
*Times of Israel, June 25, 2025*
Israel has proposed a temporary ceasefire with hostage releases staged throughout the truce, per Hamas’s demands. The deal would involve IsraelECHOs to release Palestinians and Hamas returning hostages, but sequencing remains unresolved. A mediator suggests an agreement could emerge within days. [1]
2. **2025 Gaza War Ceasefire**
*Wikipedia, June 22, 2025*
A three-stage proposal includes prisoner exchanges, demilitarization of Gaza, and ending the blockade. Israel rejected Hamas’s amendments to the UN-backed May 31 proposal, calling them “total lies.” Hamas insists on a “sustainable calm” and troop withdrawals. Supervision by Egypt, Qatar, and the UN is proposed. [2]
3. **After War With Iran, Israel Can Still Lose the Peace**
*Foreign Policy, June 24, 2025*
Analysts argue Israel’s security establishment must address the Palestinian conflict post-Iran war. Demilitarized Palestinian territories and regional alliances are seen as prerequisites for stability. The Gaza blockade’s humanitarian toll is cited as a barrier to peace. [3]
4. **Eye on Extremism: June 24, 2025**
*Counter Extremism Project, June 24, 2025*
Details ceasefire-related cyber threats from Iran-linked actors, though focused on Israel-Iran tensions, not Hamas. Mentions U.S. involvement in brokering Israel-Iran truce, indirectly highlighting broader regional dynamics. [4]
5. **Shaky Ceasefire Between Israel and Iran Appears to Hold**
*Kulr8, June 24, 2025*
Confirms Israel-Iran ceasefire (unrelated to Hamas) brokered by Trump, with Israel conditioned on no new Iranian attacks. Highlights U.S. mediation but not directly impacting Hamas negotiations. [5]

**Key Developments in June 2025:**
– **Ongoing Negotiations**: Israel’s June 25 proposal for a temporary ceasefire with staggered hostage releases represents a potential breakthrough, though sequencing remains contentious[1].
– **UN Resolution (June 10)**: Security Council Resolution 2735 endorsed the May 31 ceasefire draft but faced pushback from Hamas and Israel over troop withdrawals and demilitarization[2].
– **Hamas Priorities**: On June 21, Hamas emphasized immediate cessation of hostilities, while Israel’s Netanyahu ruled out full-scale ceasefire until “all goals” are achieved[2].
– **Third-Party Supervision**: Plans for Egypt, Qatar, and the UN to monitor Gaza reconstruction and disarmament reflect international efforts to stabilize talks, though Israel disputes PA governance capacity[2].

**Critical Hurdles:**
1. **Hostage Release Sequencing**: Israel opposes simultaneous swaps, instead advocating phased releases tied to truce milestones[1][2].
2. **Blockade and Demilitarization**: Israel refuses to lift Gaza restrictions or permit Hamas military reconstruction, while Hamas demands complete withdrawal of Israeli forces[2][3].
3. **Political Obstacles**: Netanyahu’s government dismisses ceasefire terms as compromising national security, per June 19 statements rejecting Hamas amendments[2].
**Probabilistic Outlook:**
A **temporary, partial ceasefire** for humanitarian purposes (e.g., hostages, aid) appears feasible by late June 2025, given mediator optimism and Israel’s concessions[1]. However, a **sustainable, comprehensive agreement** requiring Gaza demilitarization or blockade removal remains unlikely before June ends, as both sides reject core concessions.

Grok response:

1. **Title:** Trump announced ceasefire is unclear after Israel reports missiles from Iran
**Description:** An AP News live update on US involvement in Middle East conflicts, focusing on ceasefire announcements and regional tensions.
**Date:** June 24, 2025
**Summary:** This article reports on US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a potential ceasefire, but notes uncertainty due to ongoing missile exchanges involving Iran, which could indirectly affect Hamas-Israel dynamics. It highlights Israel’s warnings to its public amid escalating threats, with no direct confirmation of a Hamas-specific ceasefire. Experts quoted suggest that any broader truce might not extend to Gaza without separate negotiations.
2. **Title:** 2025 Gaza war ceasefire
**Description:** A Wikipedia page summarizing the history and status of ceasefire efforts in the Gaza war, based on international mediation.
**Date:** June 22, 2025 (last updated)
**Summary:** The page details a proposed multi-stage ceasefire plan involving hostage exchanges and a potential end to hostilities, accepted by Hamas in May 2024 and endorsed by the UN Security Council as Resolution 2735 on June 10, 2025. It notes that the plan includes a six-week initial ceasefire and reconstruction efforts, but as of June 2025, implementation has stalled due to disagreements. Recent updates indicate partial progress in talks, though no formal declaration has been made for June 2025.
3. **Title:** US strikes failed to destroy Iran’s nuclear sites, intelligence report says
**Description:** A Reuters article on US intelligence assessments and their implications for regional conflicts, including indirect effects on Gaza.
**Date:** June 25, 2025
**Summary:** The report discusses how US airstrikes on Iranian sites have not resolved underlying tensions, potentially complicating ceasefire efforts in Gaza by escalating broader conflicts. It mentions that intelligence suggests a short-term setback for Iran, but this has not led to direct progress in Israel-Hamas talks. Sources indicate that mediators are pushing for a separate Gaza ceasefire amid these distractions, with no confirmed agreements as of late June.
4. **Title:** June 24, 2025 – Israel-Iran conflict
**Description:** A CNN live news page tracking developments in the Israel-Iran conflict and its spillover effects on Gaza.
**Date:** June 24, 2025
**Summary:** The update covers US President Trump’s claim of a ceasefire announcement, but emphasizes that it does not explicitly include Hamas, focusing instead on Iran. It reports on Israeli military actions in Gaza, including incidents that could derail negotiations, such as recent soldier casualties. Expert analysis from CNN suggests that while talks continue, the lack of a formal Hamas-Israel agreement in June indicates ongoing obstacles.
5. **Title:** US strikes set Iran back by months: early report
**Description:** An AP News article analyzing the impact of US military actions and their relevance to Middle East peace efforts.
**Date:** June 25, 2025
**Summary:** This piece contradicts Trump’s statements by stating that Iran’s capabilities remain intact, potentially prolonging regional instability and affecting Gaza ceasefire prospects. It notes that US officials are separately engaging in Qatar-mediated talks for Hamas, with no breakthroughs reported in June 2025. The article highlights expert opinions warning that without direct de-escalation in Gaza, a full ceasefire is unlikely.
6. **Title:** Israel Gaza war | Latest News & Updates
**Description:** A BBC News overview of ongoing developments in the Israel-Gaza conflict, including ceasefire negotiations.
**Date:** June 25, 2025
**Summary:** The page provides live updates on Gaza hostilities, reporting no official ceasefire declaration as of June 25, despite recent diplomatic efforts. It includes statistics on recent incidents, such as Israeli military operations resulting in casualties, and notes progress in hostage exchange talks. Experts from BBC cite sources indicating “very significant” advancements in negotiations over the past week, though implementation remains uncertain.
7. **Title:** Updates: Trump warns Israel not to attack Iran as fragile ceasefire holds
**Description:** An Al Jazeera news article on ceasefire developments and warnings from US leadership.
**Date:** June 24, 2025
**Summary:** The article details Trump’s calls for restraint amid a fragile ceasefire with Iran, but notes that Hamas-related talks in Gaza are separate and stalled. It reports on potential progress in prisoner exchanges as part of a broader deal, with mediators like Qatar involved. Al Jazeera experts emphasize that while there are signs of movement, no formal ceasefire declaration between Israel and Hamas has been confirmed for June.
8. **Title:** Live Updates: Cease-Fire Enters Second Day as Iran and Israel Both Claim Victory
**Description:** A New York Times live coverage of ceasefire announcements and their regional implications.
**Date:** June 25, 2025 (published approximately 6 hours before this response)
**Summary:** This update reports on a declared ceasefire between Israel and Iran entering its second day, but clarifies that it does not extend to Hamas in Gaza. It includes data on recent Gaza incidents, such as seven Israeli soldiers killed in southern Gaza on June 24, which could hinder negotiations. The Times quotes analysts warning that ongoing violence in Gaza makes a June ceasefire unlikely without immediate concessions.
9. **Title:** June 23, 2025 – Israel-Iran conflict
**Description:** A CNN article on the latest conflict updates and ceasefire prospects.
**Date:** June 23, 2025
**Summary:** The piece announces Trump’s ceasefire declaration but stresses that Hamas has not been included, with negotiations ongoing but inconclusive. It references a US-proposed 60-day plan for Gaza, showing partial acceptance from Hamas but rejection from Israel. Experts indicate that recent escalations, including missile strikes, have shifted focus away from a June declaration.
10. **Title:** US-Israel-Iran conflict: List of key events, June 24, 2025
**Description:** An Al Jazeera summary of key events in the conflict, with ties to Gaza ceasefire efforts.
**Date:** June 24, 2025
**Summary:** The list outlines events leading to a ceasefire announcement, noting that Hamas-related talks in Gaza remain unresolved despite broader diplomatic pushes. It includes details on UN-mediated proposals, such as Resolution 2735, which calls for a halt in hostilities. Analysts featured suggest that while there is optimism from mediators, the absence of a formal agreement by late June points to continued challenges.

(Carolyn‘s note: Grok has apparently confused the Israel/Iran ceasefire with Israel/Hamas.)

AskNews Deep Search Response:
**10 Relevant Citations with Summaries:**
1. **[2]** *”Medio Oriente: Hamas, intensificati i colloqui con i mediatori”* (June 25, 2025 – ANSA.it)
Negotiations between Hamas and Israel have intensified, mediated by Egypt and Qatar. Hamas refuses to disarm, while Israel continues military operations, including recent strikes in Gaza that killed 41 Palestinians.
2. **[5]** *”Mediator: Ceasefire-hostage deal between Israel and Hamas possible ‘within days’”* (June 25, 2025 – Times of Israel)
Mediator Bishara Bahbah expressed optimism for a deal “within days,” though disagreements persist over wording regarding a permanent ceasefire. Qatar’s PM noted indirect talks could resume soon based on a U.S.-drafted proposal.
3. **[13]** *”ما مصير حرب غزة بعد اتفاق وقف إطلاق النار بين إيران و”إسرائيل”؟”* (June 24, 2025 – Alkhaleej Online)
Israeli officials signaled a Gaza focus after the Iran ceasefire. Finance Minister Smotrich urged “eliminating Hamas,” while Hamas demanded guarantees for war termination. Over 860 Gazans killed since mid-June [9].
4. **[21]** *”Катар пытается помирить ХАМАС и Израиль”* (June 24, 2025 – Insan Haqları Uğrunda)
Qatar’s PM warned Israel against exploiting the Iran ceasefire to escalate Gaza attacks. Talks aim to resume within days, but previous rounds failed due to Israeli strikes on Iran.
5. **[14]** *”عودة مفاوضات غزة إلى الواجهة ومصر تُطالب إسرائيل بإرسال وفد رسمي إلى القاهرة للتفاوض”* (June 24, 2025 – Almaghribtoday)
Egypt urged Israel to send negotiators to Cairo. Hamas sent delegates to Egypt, with talks focusing on prisoner swaps and aid. Death toll in Gaza exceeds 50,000 since October 2023.
6. **[9]** *”Israel acordó un cese del fuego con Irán. ¿Podría ser el de Gaza el siguiente?”* (June 24, 2025 – ABC17NEWS)
Hostage families and Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid pressured Netanyahu to extend the Iran ceasefire to Gaza. Hamas insists on war termination as a precondition.
7. **[6]** *”Donald Trump, Benjamin Netanyahu and the new Middle East”* (June 25, 2025 – Financial Times)
Trump’s role in the Iran ceasefire created momentum, but Netanyahu rejected Western pressure to concede to Hamas. Qatar hopes talks resume within two days.
8. **[4]** *”이스라엘-이란 갈등 봉합됐는데…가자 휴전 협상, 급물살 탈까”* (June 25, 2025 – NEWSIS)
IDF Chief Zamir prioritized Gaza operations post-Iran ceasefire. Hamas remains open to talks but refuses disarmament. UN condemned Israel’s actions as potential war crimes.
9. **[23]** *”Qatar, colloqui indiretti Hamas-Israele per tregua a Gaza”* (June 24, 2025 – ANSA.it)
Qatar’s PM confirmed indirect talks would occur within two days, urging Israel not to escalate. Lebanese PM Salam echoed support for mediation.
10. **[25]** *”В Катаре сообщили. что ХАМАС и Израиль планируют провести непрямые переговоры”* (June 24, 2025 – Рамблер)
Qatari mediators reiterated plans for talks, stressing Israel must avoid exploiting the Iran truce. Hamas seeks guarantees for a permanent ceasefire.

GPT News Summary:
1. **Ceasefire Between Iran and Israel**: A ceasefire between Iran and Israel has been declared, effective June 24, 2025. This was mediated by U.S. President Donald Trump, concluding a 12-day military conflict focused on Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities (LiveMint, June 25, 2025; DevDiscourse, June 24, 2025). Both Iran and Israel have reserved the right to respond to any ceasefire violations (Em.com.br, June 25, 2025).
2. **Shifting Focus to Gaza**: With the Iran ceasefire, Israeli military efforts are now redirected towards the conflict with Hamas in Gaza. The Israeli military has heightened activities in Gaza, resulting in recent casualties, with at least 44 Palestinians killed during an operation on June 24, 2025 (Terra, June 24, 2025; LiveMint, June 25, 2025).
3. **International Diplomacy and Humanitarian Concerns**: Key international figures, including French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, have called for a ceasefire in Gaza (Sky News Arabia, June 24, 2025). Additionally, Qatar has expressed intentions to resume indirect ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas (La Tercera, June 24, 2025).
4. **UN Efforts and Resolutions**: The United Nations General Assembly adopted a resolution on June 12, 2025, advocating for an immediate and unconditional ceasefire in Gaza and improved humanitarian access. Despite this, the resolution was opposed by the U.S. and Israel and lacks binding authority (Mainichi, June 13, 2025; Times of Israel, June 12, 2025).
5. **Calls for an Expanded Ceasefire**: Several parties, including the Hostages and Missing Families Forum and various Israeli politicians, are pushing for the Iran ceasefire model to extend to Gaza, leveraged by the international diplomatic engagements (LiveMint, June 25, 2025; La Tercera, June 24, 2025).
6. **Current Hostilities and Blockades**: Despite previous ceasefires earlier in 2025, tensions remain high with ongoing military engagements. Recent Israeli actions in Gaza and the West Bank, including drone strikes, contribute to a tense and precarious situation on the ground (Amanda Borschel-Dan articles, June 24, 2025).
7. **Humanitarian and Casualty Data**: The humanitarian situation in Gaza remains dire, with over 55,998 fatalities reported according to the Gaza Health Ministry, indicating the urgent need for an intervention (Sky News Arabia, June 24, 2025).

Anthropic Binary response:

1. **Active negotiations are ongoing** with mediators expressing optimism about a deal “within days” (Times of Israel, June 25). Qatar’s PM indicated indirect talks could resume within two days.
2. **Sticking points remain substantial**:
– Sequencing of hostage releases vs. Palestinian prisoner releases
– Hamas demands for complete IDF withdrawal and “sustainable calm”
– Israel’s refusal to end the war prematurely or lift the Gaza blockade
– Disagreements over wording (permanent vs. temporary ceasefire)
3. **Recent Iran-Israel ceasefire** (June 24) creates both opportunity and complexity:
– Some hope it provides momentum for Gaza ceasefire
– Others note Israel may now refocus military efforts on Gaza
– Recent Gaza casualties (41-44 Palestinians killed on June 24) indicate continued operations
4. **International pressure** is significant with UN Resolution 2735 (June 10) endorsing a ceasefire proposal, and countries like France and Germany calling for an end to hostilities.

## Time Constraints Analysis
With only 5 days remaining in June, the window is extremely narrow. The research indicates:
– Mediators suggest an agreement could emerge “within days” (Times of Israel, June 25)
– Qatar’s PM confirmed indirect talks would occur “within two days” (June 24 report)
– Previous rounds of negotiations have failed despite similar optimism
– Implementation of agreements typically takes longer than reaching them

The extracted probability is: 23%

=== Reasoning ===
# Reasoning on Israel-Hamas Ceasefire in June 2025
## Analysis Framework
I’m evaluating the probability of a ceasefire declaration between Israel and Hamas by June 30, 2025, with today being June 25th. This gives only 5 days for this event to occur. This is clearly an “Other Binary Outcome Event” requiring careful analysis of ongoing negotiations and historical patterns.

## Current Situation Assessment
Based on the research assistants’ reports, here’s what we know:
1. **Active negotiations are ongoing** with mediators expressing optimism about a deal “within days” (Times of Israel, June 25). Qatar’s PM indicated indirect talks could resume within two days.
2. **Sticking points remain substantial**:
– Sequencing of hostage releases vs. Palestinian prisoner releases
– Hamas demands for complete IDF withdrawal and “sustainable calm”
– Israel’s refusal to end the war prematurely or lift the Gaza blockade
– Disagreements over wording (permanent vs. temporary ceasefire)
3. **Recent Iran-Israel ceasefire** (June 24) creates both opportunity and complexity:
– Some hope it provides momentum for Gaza ceasefire
– Others note Israel may now refocus military efforts on Gaza
– Recent Gaza casualties (41-44 Palestinians killed on June 24) indicate continued operations
4. **International pressure** is significant with UN Resolution 2735 (June 10) endorsing a ceasefire proposal, and countries like France and Germany calling for an end to hostilities.

## Time Constraints Analysis
With only 5 days remaining in June, the window is extremely narrow. The research indicates:
– Mediators suggest an agreement could emerge “within days” (Times of Israel, June 25)
– Qatar’s PM confirmed indirect talks would occur “within two days” (June 24 report)
– Previous rounds of negotiations have failed despite similar optimism
– Implementation of agreements typically takes longer than reaching them

## Key Assumptions and Their Probabilities
1. **Assumption: Mediator optimism reflects genuine breakthrough potential**
– Probability this is incorrect: 60%
– Mediators have incentives to project optimism even when gaps remain substantial
– “Within days” statements often prove overly optimistic in Middle East negotiations
2. **Assumption: The Iran ceasefire creates momentum for Gaza**
– Probability this is incorrect: 70%
– Evidence suggests Israel may actually intensify Gaza operations now
– Netanyahu has explicitly separated the two conflicts in statements
3. **Assumption: The remaining negotiation gaps can be bridged quickly**
– Probability this is incorrect: 75%
– Core issues (permanent withdrawal, Hamas disarmament) have been intractable for months
– Recent casualties suggest continued military operations rather than de-escalation

## Synthesizing the Evidence
The most compelling evidence for a ceasefire by June 30 comes from mediator statements about talks resuming “within days” and potential breakthroughs. However, this must be balanced against:
1. Only 5 days remain in June
2. Major substantive disagreements persist (complete withdrawal, permanent vs. temporary ceasefire)
3. Recent military operations and casualties indicate ongoing conflict
4. Netanyahu’s government has explicitly rejected ending the war prematurely
5. Hamas continues to demand guarantees Israel has been unwilling to provide

A temporary, limited humanitarian pause seems more plausible than a comprehensive ceasefire agreement, but even this would be challenging to finalize in 5 days given the history of negotiations.

Probability: 23%

Pgodzinai’s full report here —>