How many conflict deaths will there be in Sudan in 2025? In this question, Jeremy’s Multi-AI Oracle is a side competitor with the machine forecasting bots of the VIEWS competition.
Model value:
* Less than 1000: 1%
* Between 1000 and 3000: 10%
* Between 3000 and 5000: 19%
* Between 5000 and 8000: 29%
* Between 8000 and 12000: 28%
* More than 12000: 13%
Obtaining outside newsfeed. News from various sources: Based on the most recent news articles, here’s a summary of the current situation in Sudan:
The conflict in Sudan has evolved into what the UN now calls the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. According to the most recent reports (March 2024), over 30 million people need humanitarian assistance, including 16 million children. The war, which began in April 2023 between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), continues to escalate with devastating consequences.
Recent developments include:
– Ongoing battles in the capital Khartoum, where infrastructure has collapsed and there are reports of severe sanitation issues and widespread death
– At least 10 civilians were killed and 23 others injured in recent RSF artillery shelling in the Darfur region
– A severe cholera outbreak in White Nile State has caused nearly 100 deaths in just two weeks
– An estimated 12.1 million women and girls (and increasingly men and boys) are at risk of sexual violence
The humanitarian situation continues to deteriorate with widespread food insecurity, displacement, and collapsed healthcare systems. The UN estimates at least 40,000 deaths in the past two years, though actual numbers may be higher. The international community has raised concerns about the possibility of the country splitting into two, as the conflict shows no signs of resolution despite various attempted peace initiatives.
Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“The ongoing conflict in Sudan, described by the UN as the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, has resulted in over 30 million people, including 16 million children, needing urgent assistance since the war began in April 2023 between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The situation is dire, with severe infrastructure damage in Khartoum, a cholera outbreak in White Nile State, and widespread reports of violence, including sexual violence risks affecting millions. The conflict has claimed at least 40,000 lives over two years, though actual figures might be higher. The potential for Sudan to split into two amid escalating battles has prompted international concern, with ongoing efforts toward a peaceful resolution remaining unsuccessful.”
Fact-checking news summary: Here’s a list of specific facts from the summary, assessed for correctness, relevance, and importance to the resolution of the question:
1. **Fact:** The ongoing conflict in Sudan has been described by the UN as the world’s worst humanitarian crisis.
– **Correctness:** True
– **Importance:** Lesser
– **Relevance:** True
2. **Fact:** Over 30 million people in Sudan, including 16 million children, need urgent assistance due to the ongoing conflict.
– **Correctness:** Mostly True (Requires verification of exact numbers externally)
– **Importance:** Lesser
– **Relevance:** True
3. **Fact:** The war in Sudan began in April 2023 between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
– **Correctness:** True
– **Importance:** Critical
– **Relevance:** True
4. **Fact:** There is severe infrastructure damage in Khartoum due to the conflict.
– **Correctness:** True
– **Importance:** Important
– **Relevance:** True
5. **Fact:** There is a cholera outbreak in White Nile State.
– **Correctness:** True
– **Importance:** Lesser
– **Relevance:** True
6. **Fact:** The conflict has resulted in widespread reports of violence, including sexual violence risks affecting millions.
– **Correctness:** True
– **Importance:** Important
– **Relevance:** True
7. **Fact:** The conflict has claimed at least 40,000 lives over two years.
– **Correctness:** Mostly True (Requires verification of exact numbers externally)
– **Importance:** Critical
– **Relevance:** True
8. **Fact:** There is international concern about the potential for Sudan to split into two amid escalating battles.
– **Correctness:** True
– **Importance:** Important
– **Relevance:** True
9. **Fact:** Ongoing efforts toward a peaceful resolution in Sudan have been unsuccessful.
– **Correctness:** True
– **Importance:** Important
– **Relevance:** True
Summary Analysis:
For the question “How many conflict deaths will there be in Sudan in 2025?”, the most critical facts involve the nature and timeline of the conflict, and the current death toll, which helps to forecast future casualties. While humanitarian needs are relevant for context, they are less so for estimating future death tolls directly. The situation’s complexity, including the infrastructure damage and humanitarian crisis, amplifies the potential scale and severity of ongoing and future violence.
Fact-checked summary:
The ongoing conflict in Sudan, which began in April 2023 between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has been described by the UN as the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. The conflict has resulted in severe infrastructure damage in Khartoum and widespread violence, including risks of sexual violence affecting millions. It has claimed at least 40,000 lives over two years, with the exact numbers requiring external verification. There is also international concern about the potential for Sudan to split into two as the battles escalate, and ongoing efforts for a peaceful resolution have so far been unsuccessful. These elements are crucial in understanding the context and potential scale of conflict deaths into 2025.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.05, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.15, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.35, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.3, “More than 12000”: 0.14] – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.1, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.3, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.4, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.15, “More than 12000”: 0.04] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.05, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.1, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.19, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.25, “More than 12000”: 0.4] – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* Less than 1000: 1%
* Between 1000 and 3000: 5%
* Between 3000 and 5000: 16%
* Between 5000 and 8000: 37%
* Between 8000 and 12000: 26%
* More than 12000: 15%
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The AI analyses agree that the conflict in Sudan, deemed the world’s worst humanitarian crisis by the UN, is characterized by significant violence and infrastructure damage, with approximately 40,000 fatalities over the past two years. The situation shows no signs of improvement, as peace efforts have failed, and the potential for Sudan to split raises further violence risks. Projections suggest continuing high levels of fatalities in 2025, likely between 5,000 and 12,000, though there is considerable uncertainty due to possible escalations or de-escalations. Factors that could alter these predictions include unexpected peace negotiations, international interventions, a potential geopolitical split, or inaccuracies in reported data. However, without these changes, the current trajectory likely maintains high death rates due to sustained conflict levels and lack of resolution.
Runtime: 141 seconds for both questions on this page.
Background on VIEWS: Near the end of 2024, the latest forecasting competition of the Violence and Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS) was launched. On Dec. 4, 2024, during a telecon, a group of machine forecasting experts involved in VIEWS observed Jeremy’s demonstration of his Multi-AI Oracle. Although it was too late for Jeremy to sign up as a VIEWS competitor, they urged him to run a side competition for everyone’s benefit. Jeremy chose their Sudan conflict deaths question.
Background on the Sudan conflict, as evaluated by the team of Jeremy Lichtman and Carolyn Meinel:
(1) The importance of the Sahel, a region in Africa that includes Sudan:
Why the Sahel Actually Matters (Possibly To You, Too)
(2) April 29, 2024: Today, a Russian diplomat is negotiating gold mining with the Sudanese Minister of Minerals.
(3) June 3, 2024: Today the African Union Announced Plans to Mediate in Sudan’s Civil War.
Sept. 11, 2024 Over 100K starvation deaths 96% likely in Sudan by 1 Jan 2025
Carolyn has checked Sudan’s news sites below to ensure that they are still in operation. However, given the widespread violence in Sudan, any of these could go offline without warning.
https://www.alnilin.com/
https://www.alrakoba.net/
https://www.altaghyeer.info/ar/
https://www.altaghyeer.info/en/
https://www.alttahrer.com/
https://www.alzaeemsd.com/
https://www.assayha.net
https://www.cover-sd.com/
https://kushnews.net/
https://rakobanews.com
https://www.sudanakhbar.com/
https://sudanjem.com/
https://suna-sd.net/en
https://sudantimes.net/
https://www.sudantribune.net/
https://www.sudantribune.com/
https://sudaneseonline.com/
https://www.sudanile.com/
https://sudanow-magazine.net/
https://www.sudaress.com/
https://www.tagpress.net/
Links to all Multi-AI forecasts here.
Below, a screenshot from VIEWS forecasting conflict fatalities in Sudan through January 2028. Below that, satellite images of the devastation in Sudan.
How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
Model value:
* less than 172: 42%
* between 172 and 205: 37%
* between 206 and 240: 16%
* more than 240: 5%
Obtaining outside newsfeed. News from various sources: Based on the provided news articles, here’s a summary of the key points about Canada’s upcoming election:
Most Recent Updates (March 20-21, 2024):
Prime Minister Mark Carney is expected to call a snap federal election for April 28, with the official announcement anticipated this Sunday. This will set up a major contest between Carney’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, who have been leading in recent polls.
Key Developments:
– The Conservative Party has announced they won’t allow reporters to travel with leader Pierre Poilievre during the campaign, breaking from traditional campaign coverage practices.
– Former journalists Evan Solomon and Greg Brady are entering politics, with Solomon running for the Liberals and Brady also seeking office.
– The campaign is already being influenced by international factors, particularly Donald Trump’s recent comments about Canadian politics. Poilievre has tried to distance himself from Trump while using the former US president’s stated preference for Liberals to argue why Canadians should vote Conservative.
The upcoming election is shaping up to be highly competitive, with housing affordability, cost of living, and climate policy emerging as key issues. The Conservatives have been performing well in polls but face challenges defining their climate policy after opposing the carbon tax. Meanwhile, the Liberals are bringing in high-profile candidates like Evan Solomon as they prepare to defend their government’s record under new leadership.
Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“Recent updates in Canadian federal politics suggest that Prime Minister Mark Carney will likely announce a snap federal election for April 28, with the decision expected to be publicized this Sunday. The election will see Carney’s Liberals face off against Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, who currently lead in polls. The Conservative Party has decided to exclude reporters from traveling with Poilievre during the campaign, deviating from traditional practices. New entrants into politics include former journalists Evan Solomon, running for the Liberals, and Greg Brady. The campaign has also been touched by international influences, notably Donald Trump’s remarks on Canadian politics, leading Poilievre to distance himself from Trump’s expressed preference for the Liberals. Key issues are expected to include housing affordability, the cost of living, and climate policy, with the Conservatives working to refine their stance on climate after opposing the carbon tax. Meanwhile, the Liberals aim to bolster their campaign with prominent figures like Solomon to defend their record under new leadership.”
Fact-checking news summary:
To address the question about how many seats the Conservative Party will win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election, let’s extract and analyze the relevant facts from the summary. Each fact will be checked for correctness, importance to the question, and relevance.
1. **Fact:** Prime Minister Mark Carney will likely announce a snap federal election for April 28.
– **Correctness:** False. As of October 2023, Mark Carney is not the Prime Minister of Canada; Justin Trudeau is. Therefore, this statement about Carney announcing an election is incorrect. [Carolyn’s note: Out of date, Carney was elected leader of the Liberal party on March 9, 2025.]
– **Importance:** Critical. The timing of the election is directly relevant to predicting the number of seats won by any party.
– **Relevance:** True. The announcement of an election is essential context for answering the question.
2. **Fact:** The decision about the election announcement is expected to be publicized this Sunday.
– **Correctness:** Indeterminate. This depends on when the summary was written, which is not specified. But due to the incorrect PM reference, the factual basis is questionable. [Carolyn’s note: Out of date, see above.]
– **Importance:** Important.
– **Relevance:** True.
3. **Fact:** The Liberals are led by Mark Carney, and the Conservatives are led by Pierre Poilievre.
– **Correctness:** Partially false. Pierre Poilievre is indeed the leader of the Conservative Party, but Mark Carney is not the leader of the Liberal Party. [Carolyn’s note: Out of date, see above.]
– **Importance:** Critical. Leadership is a key factor in elections.
– **Relevance:** True.
4. **Fact:** The Conservatives currently lead in the polls.
– **Correctness:** Indeterminate. This would need to be verified with the most recent polling data.
– **Importance:** Critical. Poll standings can indicate election outcomes.
– **Relevance:** True.
5. **Fact:** The Conservative Party has decided to exclude reporters from traveling with Poilievre during the campaign.
– **Correctness:** Indeterminate. This requires current campaign verification.
– **Importance:** Lesser importance. While it might affect media coverage, it is less directly related to seat counts.
– **Relevance:** True.
6. **Fact:** New entrants into politics include former journalists Evan Solomon, running for the Liberals, and Greg Brady.
– **Correctness:** Indeterminate. This needs verification from candidate lists.
– **Importance:** Lesser importance. While candidates matter, these specifics are less impactful on total seat counts.
– **Relevance:** False. The specific individuals are not crucial for predicting seat outcomes.
7. **Fact:** Donald Trump made remarks on Canadian politics, prompting Poilievre to distance himself from Trump’s preference for the Liberals.
– **Correctness:** Indeterminate. This needs external verification.
– **Importance:** Unimportant. The impact on seat counts would be indirect.
– **Relevance:** False. Trump’s remarks are not directly relevant.
8. **Fact:** Key issues are expected to include housing affordability, the cost of living, and climate policy.
– **Correctness:** Likely true. These are common issues in Canadian politics.
– **Importance:** Important. Key issues influence voter behavior and, indirectly, seat outcomes.
– **Relevance:** True.
9. **Fact:** Conservatives are working to refine their stance on climate after opposing the carbon tax.
– **Correctness:** Likely true. This aligns with known political strategies.
– **Importance:** Important. Party policy can influence election results.
– **Relevance:** True.
10. **Fact:** Liberals aim to bolster their campaign with figures like Solomon to defend their record under new leadership.
– **Correctness:** Indeterminate. Needs verification about campaign strategy.
– **Importance:** Important. Campaign strategy can affect election outcomes.
– **Relevance:** True.
To predict the number of seats a party might win, critical and relevant facts about leadership, polling standings, and key election issues are most important.
Fact-checked summary:
To address how many seats the Conservative Party might win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election, it is important to note that Pierre Poilievre is the confirmed leader of the Conservative Party, which is a critical factor since leadership heavily influences election results. Additionally, key election issues such as housing affordability, the cost of living, and climate policy are likely to play a significant role in shaping voter behavior and indirectly affect the seat outcomes. Furthermore, the Conservatives are working to refine their stance on climate policy after previously opposing the carbon tax, suggesting that their policy adjustments could impact their electoral success. Understanding these dynamics provides insight into factors that could influence the number of seats won by the Conservatives, even though precise predictions on seat counts remain speculative without further polling data.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.2, “between 172 and 205”: 0.45, “between 206 and 240”: 0.3, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.5, “between 172 and 205”: 0.3, “between 206 and 240”: 0.15, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.2, “between 172 and 205”: 0.4, “between 206 and 240”: 0.3, “more than 240”: 0.1] – confidence: 5)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 5
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* less than 172: 21%
* between 172 and 205: 42%
* between 206 and 240: 32%
* more than 240: 5%
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI.
A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The reasoning across various analyses highlights the factors contributing to the potential electoral success of the Conservative Party under Pierre Poilievre’s leadership. Key issues such as housing affordability, cost of living, and climate policy emerge as crucial motivators for voters, with the Conservatives refining their stance on climate to appeal to moderates. However, despite the optimistic outlook due to strong polling and leadership, several uncertainties could affect outcomes: polling inaccuracies, regional vote inefficiencies, potential voter behavior changes, and the possibility of unforeseen events or effective Liberal strategies. Thus, while gains are plausible, predictions remain speculative due to these variables..
All Past Multi-AI Oracle Forecasts
Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports
Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
One of the VIEWS Forecasting Pages for Sudan
The chart shows predictions of conflict fatalities in Sudan through January 2028.
Tracking the toll of Sudan’s forgotten war from afar
Satellite image below is from the Feb. 28, 2025 issue of Science, https://www.science.org/content/article/how-many-have-died-sudan-s-civil-war-satellite-images-and-models-offer-clues
