How many state-based conflict deaths in Syria will be reported by ACLED for the month of June 2025?
Here’s what Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts today:
Model value:
* Less than 100: 5%
* Between 100 and 250: 21%
* Between 250 and 500: 37%
* Between 500 and 1000: 26%
* Greater than 1000: 11%
Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: Syria state-actor conflict deaths June 2025
News from various sources:
In June 2025, Syria experienced a significant escalation in violence, involving sectarian clashes that led to numerous casualties. The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported a death toll of 56 from confrontations between Damascus-affiliated security forces and armed groups versus members of the Druze community. The fatalities included personnel from government-aligned forces and Druze community members.
This surge in violence was initially ignited by an audio recording allegedly disrespecting the Prophet Muhammad, reportedly linked to a Druze cleric, which was later rejected by the cleric and discredited by authorities. The conflict led to skirmishes in regions such as the road between Damascus and Suwayda, the Ashrafiyat Sahnaya, and the Jaramana district.
Amidst attempts for stabilization, reports indicated cautious calm in previously affected areas, but the situation remained volatile. There were attempts to establish ceasefires and calls from government and Druze leaders for investigations and ceasefires, highlighting a pervasive distrust between Syria’s government and the Druze community.
Reactions to the violence were notable from international actors. The Israeli government engaged in defensive airstrikes, citing intent to protect the Druze community, while Israeli military officials emphasized high alert status. In contrast, Lebanese Druze leader Walid Jumblatt criticized Israeli involvement as a potential provocation aimed at sowing discord between Druze and other communities.
The Syrian Foreign Ministry denounced foreign interference, emphasizing a need for Syrian-led resolutions to maintain national integrity. This complex interplay of local sectarian violence and international reactions underscores ongoing tensions and geopolitical interests in Syria’s internal affairs.
Fact-checking news summary:
Fact-check did not return a result. Using news summary.
OpenAI gives a base rate of between 250 and 500
The question difficulty is rated 7 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
0.30.20.250.25
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
Using historical factors and recent reports, Probability current is estimated higher due to increased tensions and international involvement. The likelihood of the death toll reaching between 250 and 500 is circa 65%, factoring in sectarian nature and historical trends.
Bayesian base rate: 0.65
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 180 (Carolyn‘s note: the Multi-AI Oracle is having trouble counting again. Correct answer is 25 days, not counting today.)
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate considers the frequency of sectarian violence in Syria, patterns around ceasefires, and the current geopolitical dynamics involving Syria and neighboring countries. Historical frequency of violence indicates a moderate chance of escalation to a significant toll.
Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Detailed information on internal dynamics in Syria, such as government stability, the position of various militant groups, and the influence of external actors would refine forecasts.
Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Possible successful peace talks or decreased tensions due to external diplomatic interventions could lead to fewer casualties. Overreaction by international forces could also lead to heightened violence, skewing away from prediction.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively: (Carolyn’s note: “positive” means close to its prediction)
– Continued escalation of violence beyond initial incidents.
– Failure of ceasefires or peace talks to establish long-term stability.
– Increased tensions leading to more widespread sectarian violence.
– Escalation of international involvement, potentially increasing the conflict scale.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“Less than 100”: 0.65, “Between 100 and 250”: 0.25, “Between 250 and 500”: 0.07, “Between 500 and 1000”: 0.02, “Greater than 1000”: 0.01] – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“Less than 100”: 0.05, “Between 100 and 250”: 0.1, “Between 250 and 500”: 0.45, “Between 500 and 1000”: 0.3, “Greater than 1000”: 0.1] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“Less than 100”: 0.05, “Between 100 and 250”: 0.2, “Between 250 and 500”: 0.35, “Between 500 and 1000”: 0.25, “Greater than 1000”: 0.15] – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
MAPD: Avg: 0.20666666666667, Max: 0.4
# LLM responses: 3
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>
Model value:
* Less than 100: 5%
* Between 100 and 250: 21%
* Between 250 and 500: 37%
* Between 500 and 1000: 26%
* Greater than 1000: 11%
The reasoning across the AI summaries revolves around the current situation of sectarian violence in Syria, which has resulted in 56 deaths as of early June 2025. The reported ‘cautious calm’ suggests some stabilization efforts, but there is significant concern about potential re-escalation, particularly due to the involvement of international actors like the Israeli military. While some AIs predict that the conflict could stabilize beneath 100 deaths this month, others caution that historical patterns and the volatile geopolitical environment could lead to higher casualties, particularly if ceasefires fail or if broader regional conflicts spill over. The situation is further complicated by the possibility of successful peace talks or international diplomatic interventions, which could substantially reduce violence. Additionally, factors such as underreporting or the evolving nature of sectarian clashes could alter the projected outcome significantly.
Runtime: 181 seconds.
Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy ’s bots —>
Below, a forecast of state-based conflict fatalities for Syria in the VIEWS machine forecasting competition, which is an aggregate of the forecasts of twenty competitors. Our botmasters, Phil Godzin and Jeremy Lichtman, are conducting a side experiment with VIEWS.
