How many conflict deaths will there be in Sudan in 2025? In this question, Jeremy’s Multi-AI Oracle is a side competitor with the machine forecasting bots of the VIEWS competition.
Model value:
* Less than 1000: 1%
* Between 1000 and 3000: 8%
* Between 3000 and 5000: 15%
* Between 5000 and 8000: 34%
* Between 8000 and 12000: 27%
* More than 12000: 15%
Obtaining outside newsfeed. News from various sources:
Based on the most recent news articles, here’s a summary of the current situation in Sudan:
The UN has declared the war in Sudan as the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, with over 30 million people now requiring humanitarian assistance, including 16 million children. The situation has deteriorated significantly, with widespread sexual violence affecting an estimated 12.1 million women and girls, and increasingly men and boys as well, according to UNICEF.
Recent violence continues to escalate, with the latest reports indicating that at least 10 civilians were killed and 23 others injured in artillery shelling by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in El Fasher, North Darfur. The conflict has also led to severe public health challenges, including a cholera outbreak in White Nile State that has claimed nearly 100 lives in just two weeks.
The crisis, which began on April 15, 2023, has created massive displacement and food insecurity. The situation is particularly dire for children, who face multiple threats including violence, disease, and lack of access to education.
Despite some local efforts to maintain educational opportunities, such as informal teaching initiatives, the overall humanitarian situation continues to worsen with no clear resolution in sight.
Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“The situation in Sudan has been labeled by the UN as the world’s most severe humanitarian crisis, with over 30 million people, including 16 million children, needing aid. Reports indicate widespread violence and sexual violence affecting millions, exacerbated by ongoing clashes such as artillery shelling in El Fasher by the Rapid Support Forces, resulting in civilian casualties. A cholera outbreak in White Nile State has further strained public health, already weakened by the conflict that began in April 2023. This crisis has caused massive displacement and food insecurity, severely affecting children who face violence, disease, and disrupted education. Despite some local efforts to maintain educational activities, the humanitarian situation is worsening, with no imminent resolution.”
Fact-checking news summary:
Here is a list of specific facts from the summary, along with their analysis:
1. **Fact:** The UN has labeled the situation in Sudan as the world’s most severe humanitarian crisis.
– **Correct:** True.
– **Importance:** Important.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True. This provides context for understanding the overall severity of the conflict, which is necessary for estimating future conflict deaths.
2. **Fact:** Over 30 million people, including 16 million children, are in need of aid in Sudan.
– **Correct:** True.
– **Importance:** Important.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True. The number of people in need can be an indicator of the scale of the crisis and indirectly related to potential conflict deaths.
3. **Fact:** There are reports of widespread violence and sexual violence affecting millions.
– **Correct:** True.
– **Importance:** Important.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True. The level of violence can directly affect the number of conflict-related deaths.
4. **Fact:** Ongoing clashes, such as artillery shelling in El Fasher by the Rapid Support Forces, are resulting in civilian casualties.
– **Correct:** True.
– **Importance:** Critical.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True. These specific acts of violence are closely related to estimating deaths.
5. **Fact:** A cholera outbreak in White Nile State has worsened the public health situation.
– **Correct:** True.
– **Importance:** Important.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True. Public health crises can exacerbate mortality related to conflict situations.
6. **Fact:** The conflict in Sudan began in April 2023.
– **Correct:** True.
– **Importance:** Important.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True. Knowing when the conflict started is essential for understanding its progression and potential future impact.
7. **Fact:** The crisis has caused massive displacement and food insecurity, severely affecting children.
– **Correct:** True.
– **Importance:** Important.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True. Displacement and food insecurity contribute to mortality rates indirectly but significantly.
8. **Fact:** The humanitarian situation is worsening, with no imminent resolution expected.
– **Correct:** True.
– **Importance:** Important.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True. The continuation of the crisis without resolution impacts the likelihood of ongoing deaths.
Overall, the facts listed are correct and relevant to understanding the ongoing situation and its impact on predicting future conflict deaths in Sudan by 2025.
Fact-checked summary:
The situation in Sudan has been labeled by the UN as the world’s most severe humanitarian crisis, highlighting the overall severity of the conflict and its importance in estimating future conflict deaths. Over 30 million people, including 16 million children, are in need of aid, indicating the scale of the crisis and its relation to potential conflict deaths. Reports of widespread violence and sexual violence, as well as ongoing clashes like those in El Fasher by the Rapid Support Forces, directly affect the number of conflict-related deaths.
Additionally, a cholera outbreak in White Nile State has worsened the public health situation, potentially exacerbating mortality linked to conflict. The conflict, which began in April 2023, has caused massive displacement and food insecurity, severely affecting children and indirectly but significantly contributing to mortality rates. The worsening humanitarian situation, with no imminent resolution expected, underscores the likelihood of ongoing conflict-related deaths. These facts collectively provide context for understanding the crisis’s progression and potential future impact on mortality.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.05, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.15, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.35, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.29, “More than 12000”: 0.15] – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.15, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.25, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.35, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.19, “More than 12000”: 0.05] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.08, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.12, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.16, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.28, “More than 12000”: 0.35] – confidence: 5)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* Less than 1000: 1%
* Between 1000 and 3000: 8%
* Between 3000 and 5000: 15%
* Between 5000 and 8000: 34%
* Between 8000 and 12000: 27%
* More than 12000: 15%
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The assessments concur that Sudan is currently experiencing the world’s most severe humanitarian crisis, characterized by ongoing violent conflict, massive displacement, food insecurity, and a cholera outbreak. The conflict began in April 2023 and continues without signs of resolution, leading to predictions of a high number of conflict-related deaths, estimated to be between 3,000 and 8,000. Potential factors that could impact the death toll include successful peace negotiations or international interventions, which might reduce it, whereas further escalation of violence or deterioration of conditions could increase it. Historical trends and current conditions reinforce these predictions, although unpredictability in disease outbreaks and possible diplomatic progress or international aid introduce uncertainties into the estimates.
Runtime: 182 seconds for both questions on this page.
Background on VIEWS: Near the end of 2024, the latest forecasting competition of the Violence and Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS) was launched. On Dec. 4, 2024, during a telecon, a group of machine forecasting experts involved in VIEWS observed Jeremy’s demonstration of his Multi-AI Oracle. Although it was too late for Jeremy to sign up as a VIEWS competitor, they urged him to run a side competition for everyone’s benefit. Jeremy chose their Sudan conflict deaths question.
Interactive VIEWS dashboard here.
Background on the Sudan conflict, as evaluated by the team of Jeremy Lichtman and Carolyn Meinel:
(1) The importance of the Sahel, a region in Africa that includes Sudan:
Why the Sahel Actually Matters (Possibly To You, Too)
(2) April 29, 2024: Today, a Russian diplomat is negotiating gold mining with the Sudanese Minister of Minerals.
(3) June 3, 2024: Today the African Union Announced Plans to Mediate in Sudan’s Civil War.
Sept. 11, 2024 Over 100K starvation deaths 96% likely in Sudan by 1 Jan 2025
Carolyn has checked Sudan’s news sites below to ensure that they are still in operation. However, given the widespread violence in Sudan, any of these could go offline without warning.
https://www.alnilin.com/
https://www.alrakoba.net/
https://www.altaghyeer.info/ar/
https://www.altaghyeer.info/en/
https://www.alttahrer.com/
https://www.alzaeemsd.com/
https://www.assayha.net
https://www.cover-sd.com/
https://kushnews.net/
https://rakobanews.com
https://www.sudanakhbar.com/
https://sudanjem.com/
https://suna-sd.net/en
https://sudantimes.net/
https://www.sudantribune.net/
https://www.sudantribune.com/
https://sudaneseonline.com/
https://www.sudanile.com/
https://sudanow-magazine.net/
https://www.sudaress.com/
https://www.tagpress.net/
Links to all Multi-AI forecasts here.
Below, a screenshot from VIEWS forecasting conflict fatalities in Sudan through January 2028. Below that, satellite images of the devastation in Sudan.
How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
Model value:
* less than 172: 33%
* between 172 and 205: 39%
* between 206 and 240: 22%
* more than 240: 6%
Obtaining outside newsfeed. News from various sources:
Based on the provided news articles, here’s a summary of the key points about Canada’s upcoming election:
Recent polling shows a significant shift in the Canadian political landscape. While the Conservative Party under Pierre Poilievre had been leading in polls for months, the gap between the Conservatives and Liberals has narrowed considerably. This shift coincides with several key developments:
Donald Trump’s recent comments and threats regarding Canada, including proposed 25% tariffs, have dramatically impacted the political discourse. This has particularly affected Conservative leader Poilievre, who must navigate the complex relationship with Trump while maintaining his domestic appeal. The Liberal Party, potentially under new leadership from Mark Carney (former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor), appears to be capitalizing on anti-Trump sentiment among Canadian voters.
An early election appears increasingly likely, with the Liberals potentially calling a snap election once their leadership transition is complete. The Conservative Party and various activist groups are already ramping up their digital advertising campaigns, particularly targeting Mark Carney before he can establish his political identity with voters. The key question emerging in this unprecedented election scenario is centered around leadership capability – specifically, which leader Canadians trust to handle both domestic issues and the complicated relationship with the United States under a possible second Trump presidency.
The election’s timing and circumstances make this a particularly unique moment in Canadian political history, with international relations, especially with the US, playing an unusually prominent role in domestic political calculations.
Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“Recent reports suggest a shift in the Canadian political landscape, with the gap between the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, and the Liberals narrowing. This change follows Donald Trump’s recent comments about Canada, which include proposed tariffs, complicating the Conservatives’ position. Meanwhile, the Liberals, possibly under new leadership from former central bank governor Mark Carney, may be gaining support by leveraging anti-Trump sentiment. Speculation about an early election is rising, with the Liberals potentially calling for a snap election post-leadership transition, as both parties intensify digital campaigns. A central issue in the potential election is leadership capability concerning domestic issues and US relations, especially under a potential second Trump presidency. This situation marks a unique juncture in Canadian politics, with international dynamics significantly influencing domestic strategies.”
Fact-checking news summary: Based on the provided summary, here is a list of specific facts along with their evaluations:
1. **Fact: “Recent reports suggest a shift in the Canadian political landscape, with the gap between the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, and the Liberals narrowing.”**
– **Check:** The Conservative Party is currently led by Pierre Poilievre as of October 2023.
– **Importance:** Important. Understanding the competitive positioning of the Conservative Party is crucial for estimating potential seat gains.
– **Relevance:** True. The political standing is directly relevant to predicting election outcomes.
– **Verdict:** True.
2. **Fact: “This change follows Donald Trump’s recent comments about Canada, which include proposed tariffs, complicating the Conservatives’ position.”**
– **Check:** It is plausible that Donald Trump has commented on Canada and proposed tariffs. However, the internal consistency regarding these complicating the Conservatives’ position isn’t clear without more data.
– **Importance:** Important. International relations can affect domestic political strategies.
– **Relevance:** True, if Trump’s comments significantly impact voter perception or trade.
– **Verdict:** True, assuming the mentioned comments exist.
3. **Fact: “The Liberals, possibly under new leadership from former central bank governor Mark Carney, may be gaining support by leveraging anti-Trump sentiment.”**
– **Check:** Mark Carney is a noted figure but is not currently leading the Liberal Party as of the latest public records. The speculation remains unverified. [Carolyn’s note: Today, Carney was sworn in as Canada’s Prime Minister.]
– **Importance:** Important, as leadership changes can alter party dynamics and voter support.
– **Relevance:** True. Leadership impacts electoral prospects.
– **Verdict:** False, [True, per this.]as there’s no confirmation that Mark Carney is taking over the leadership.
4. **Fact: “Speculation about an early election is rising, with the Liberals potentially calling for a snap election post-leadership transition.”**
– **Check:** Speculation on snap elections is common in political analysis; however, there is no confirmed leadership transition plan.
– **Importance:** Important. Election timing affects campaign strategies and outcomes.
– **Relevance:** True, since timing can influence seat distribution.
– **Verdict:** True, as speculation is part of political discourse, though contingent on leadership changes.
5. **Fact: “Both parties intensify digital campaigns.”**
– **Check:** Digital campaigning is a standard practice, especially as elections approach.
– **Importance:** Lesser. While important, the fact doesn’t directly predict seat numbers.
– **Relevance:** True. Campaign strategy affects voter outreach and engagement.
– **Verdict:** True.
6. **Fact: “A central issue in the potential election is leadership capability concerning domestic issues and US relations, especially under a potential second Trump presidency.”**
– **Check:** Leadership and international relations are typically central issues in election debates, particularly concerning high-profile international figures.
– **Importance:** Critical, as these are likely to influence voter decisions significantly.
– **Relevance:** True, since they are directly related to political strategies and voter appeal.
– **Verdict:** True.
7. **Fact: “This situation marks a unique juncture in Canadian politics, with international dynamics significantly influencing domestic strategies.”**
– **Check:** The interplay between international dynamics and domestic politics is a reasonable analysis but not a specific verifiable fact.
– **Importance:** Important. Understanding the context is crucial for accurate predictions.
– **Relevance:** True. It frames the political environment impacting election outcomes.
– **Verdict:** True, as a general assessment of the political landscape.
Each fact’s verification and importance relate to current events and general political practices. The assessment prioritizes elements directly influencing the Conservative Party’s seat prospects.
Fact-checked summary:
The Conservative Party of Canada, led by Pierre Poilievre as of October 2023, is experiencing a narrowing gap in popularity with the Liberal Party, indicative of a potentially competitive election landscape. Digital campaigning, a standard strategy, is intensifying for both parties. Leadership capability concerning domestic issues and relations with the United States, especially in the context of potential international dynamics, are central issues likely to influence voter decisions. Overall, these factors collectively create a distinct political environment that affects seat predictions for the upcoming federal parliamentary election in Canada.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.45, “between 172 and 205”: 0.35, “between 206 and 240”: 0.15, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.3, “between 172 and 205”: 0.4, “between 206 and 240”: 0.2, “more than 240”: 0.01] – confidence: 5)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.2, “between 172 and 205”: 0.35, “between 206 and 240”: 0.3, “more than 240”: 0.15] – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 5
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* less than 172: 33%
* between 172 and 205: 39%
* between 206 and 240: 22%
* more than 240: 6%
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The prediction regarding the Conservative Party’s potential success in the upcoming elections is based on several factors, including historical performance, current polling trends, and leadership dynamics under Pierre Poilievre. Typically, the Conservatives have secured between 100 to 170 seats, and while they are gaining popularity, particularly by focusing on key domestic issues, the competition remains fierce with the Liberal Party. The first-past-the-post electoral system and typical seat distributions in Canadian elections suggest limited chances for any party to win more than 200 seats. Factors that could alter these predictions include unforeseen political events, polling inaccuracies, or a major shift in public opinion favoring the Conservatives, particularly if the Liberal Party faces scandals or if international events align more closely with Conservative policies.
All Past Multi-AI Oracle Forecasts
Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports
Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
One of the VIEWS Forecasting Pages for Sudan
The chart shows predictions of conflict fatalities in Sudan through January 2028.
Tracking the toll of Sudan’s forgotten war from afar
Satellite image below is from the Feb. 28, 2025 issue of Science, https://www.science.org/content/article/how-many-have-died-sudan-s-civil-war-satellite-images-and-models-offer-clues
