Israel/Hamas Ceasefire? Botmaster Phil Godzin’s forecast details, July 16, 2025

Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of July 2025?

Here’s what Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicts today: Considering all factors, I estimate:
Probability: 25%

46–59 minutes read time

Perplexity response:
{think}

Okay, let’s tackle this question about whether there’ll be a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in July 2025. First, I need to look through the provided search results to gather the most relevant and recent information. The user wants me to list 10 citations with titles, dates, summaries, then analyze them.
Starting with the first source, it’s a YouTube video from July 15, 2025. The title mentions Israel Daily News and talks about Netanyahu’s involvement. The key points here are Hamas’s demands for a ceasefire (cessation of hostilities, IDF withdrawal, Gaza rehabilitation) versus Netanyahu’s stance. Also, Israel submitted a third troop map, showing some flexibility. The families of hostages are pushing for their return. So, this source indicates ongoing negotiations but challenges remain.
The second source is from CBS News, July 9, 2025. Hamas announced releasing 10 hostages as part of ceasefire talks. However, the article notes uncertainty about who they are and the timeline. Neither Israel nor the U.S. has commented, which might mean it’s a tentative step without official agreement.
Third source is another YouTube video from July 15, 2025, with Rami Igra, a former Mossad chief. He suggests Netanyahu might eventually accept some terms, like repositioning IDF, but Hamas insists on existing under a new government including Egypt, UAE, and Palestinian Authority. This implies a possible compromise but lack of agreement on Hamas’s role.
Fourth source is from the London Review of Books, July 15, 2025. Adam Shatz discusses the broader context of the war, mentioning the failure of the peace process and the need for real talks. He references scholars who critique the past approaches, indicating systemic issues hindering a ceasefire.
The fifth source is incomplete, so I’ll skip it.
Now, compiling the citations. Wait, the user asked for 10, but there are only four sources provided. Maybe the user expects me to proceed with what’s available. Each source needs a title, date, and three-sentence summary. Let’s go through each:
1. **Title**: Israel Daily News – War Day 648 | July 15, 2025
**Date**: 2025-07-15
**Summary**: Discusses Netanyahu’s denial of blame for October 7, ongoing negotiations focusing on IDF withdrawal and aid mechanisms. Israel submitted a third troop deployment map, showing flexibility. Hostage families push for return, with some believed alive. Hamas insists on ceasefire terms that Netanyahu deems impractical.
2. **Title**: Hamas says it will release 10 hostages as part of ceasefire negotiations
**Date**: 2025-07-09
**Summary**: Hamas offers to release 10 hostages in ceasefire talks, details unclear. No official response from Israel or U.S. Move seen as potential confidence-building measure but without confirmation.
3. **Title**: When Will a Ceasefire Happen?
**Date**: 2025-07-15
**Summary**: Rami Igra explains Hamas’s insistence on cessation of hostilities, IDF redeployment, and Gaza rehabilitation. Netanyahu may eventually agree to terms allowing Hamas under a new government. Current diplomatic efforts seen as ineffective without viable alternatives.
4. **Title**: The World since 7 October – London Review of Books
**Date**: 2025-07-15
**Summary**: Analyzes the failure of previous peace processes leading to current conflict. Critiques diplomatic approaches focused on symbolic gestures rather than addressing root issues. Suggests systemic changes needed for lasting solution beyond temporary ceasefires.
Now, analyzing these: Recent negotiations (July 15) show some movement, like Israel’s troop maps and Hamas’s hostage offer. However, major disagreements remain on IDF withdrawal and Hamas’s role. Experts (Igra, Shatz) suggest systemic issues hindering progress. The hostage release (July 9) is a partial measure but not a definitive step. Considering the dates, July 15 sources are most recent, indicating active but unresolved talks. The likelihood in July 2025 depends on these negotiations reaching agreement, which current reports don’t confirm. The presence of Egypt, UAE, and Palestinian Authority in Hamas’s proposed government (source 3) might indicate a pathway, but Netanyahu’s resistance (source 1) is a hurdle. No clear resolution is imminent based on provided info; more mediation or shifts in positions needed. **Citations Summary**
1. **Israel Daily News – War Day 648 | July 15, 2025**
Ongoing negotiations focus on IDF troop withdrawal and a modified ceasefire framework. Israel submitted a third troop deployment map, indicating flexibility. Hostage families highlight stalled progress, with 50 captives remaining (20 believed alive)[1].
2. **Hamas says it will release 10 hostages** (July 9, 2025)
Hamas proposed releasing 10 hostages as part of ceasefire talks, though identities and timelines remain opaque. Israel and the U.S. have not publicly responded, signaling caution toward the gesture[2].
3. **When Will a Ceasefire Happen?** (July 15, 2025)
Former Mossad official Rami Igra attributes stalled negotiations to Hamas’s insistence on IDF redeployment and a new Gaza governance structure. He suggests Netanyahu may eventually accept terms, but current proposals lack viability[3].
4. **The World since 7 October** (July 15, 2025)
Analysis critiques decades of failed peace processes for ignoring systemic issues. The conflict underscores the need for robust diplomatic engagement beyond symbolic gestures, though no immediate path appears viable[4].
—
**Key Analysis**
Recent developments show incremental progress (e.g., hostage offers, troop maps) but no concrete pact. **Primary obstacles** include Hamas’s demands for a *cessation of hostilities* (not just a ceasefire) and IDF withdrawal, which Netanyahu characterizes as unachievable[1][3]. Experts note systemic challenges, including Israel’s reluctance to engage the Palestinian Authority and Hamas’s ideological rigidity[3][4].
**Hostage Negotiations**: Hamas’s July 9 offer to release 10 hostages signals a conditional step, but the lack of clarity and external commentary suggests skepticism[2]. Families of hostages continue advocating for immediate action[1].
**Potential Pathways**:
– **Gaza Governance**: Proposals for a Hamas-inclusive government with Egyptian, Emirati, and Palestinian Authority involvement face resistance, particularly from Netanyahu[3].
– **IDF Redeployment**: Israel’s submission of troop maps indicates tactical flexibility, though Hamas seeks broader territorial concessions[1][3].
No definitive ceasefires have been announced as of July 15, 2025. While mediation efforts persist, fundamental disagreements on Hamas’s role and security terms remain unresolved[1][3][4].
Grok response:
Below is a detailed rundown of the most relevant news and information regarding your question on whether there will be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in July 2025. As your research assistant, I first analyzed the question as a Political Event, which involves ongoing negotiations, statements from key parties, and potential indicators of progress. To address this effectively, I focused on gathering recent sources from reliable news outlets, diplomatic updates, and social media sentiment (treated as inconclusive), prioritizing articles from the current month (July 2025) up to the present date (July 16, 2025). I emphasized recent developments in ceasefire talks, including positions from Israel and Hamas, any reported progress, and expert opinions from involved mediators like the US, Qatar, and Egypt.
Key areas I considered:
– **Recent Negotiations and Updates:** Sources highlight ongoing talks in Doha, Qatar, with a focus on a US-backed proposal for a 60-day ceasefire, hostage releases, and potential paths to a permanent end to the conflict. There are indications of movement, such as Hamas submitting positive responses, but significant obstacles remain, including disagreements over Israeli troop withdrawals and guarantees for a lasting truce.
– **Authoritative Sources for Resolution:** The US, Qatar, and Egypt are key mediators, with the US proposal often referenced. While there’s no single definitive source for resolution, updates from Reuters and The Times of Israel provide the latest on negotiations.
– **Data and Statistics:** No specific polling data is directly available for this event, but I included timelines of negotiation milestones and statements from leaders like Netanyahu, which serve as qualitative indicators of progress.
– **Expert Opinions and Sentiment:** Opinions from Israeli officials, Hamas representatives, and mediators suggest cautious optimism, but unresolved demands could prevent a declaration by month’s end.
– **Variety of Sources:** I drew from news articles, diplomatic reports, and social media posts on X (formerly Twitter) for broader context, ensuring a mix of perspectives while noting that X posts reflect public sentiment and are not conclusive evidence.
To start, here is a list of 10 citations based on the most relevant and recent sources I accessed. Each includes the title, a brief description, the date of publication, and a three-sentence summary of the relevant content.
### List of 10 Citations:
1. **Title:** US-backed ceasefire plan for Gaza still under discussion, but optimism fading
**Description:** A Reuters article on the latest round of ceasefire negotiations in Doha, focusing on the US proposal and remaining hurdles.
**Date of Publication:** July 15, 2025
**Summary:** Israeli and Hamas negotiators have been discussing a 60-day ceasefire since July 6, involving phased hostage releases and Israeli troop withdrawals, but major differences persist. Mediators from Qatar and Egypt reported fading optimism due to Hamas’s demands for stronger guarantees on ending the war permanently. Recent updates indicate that while talks continue, no final agreement has been reached as of mid-July.
2. **Title:** Where Do Israel-Hamas Cease-Fire Negotiations Stand?
**Description:** A New York Times analysis of the current state of ceasefire talks, emphasizing Hamas’s conditions and US involvement.
**Date of Publication:** July 10, 2025
**Summary:** Hamas has sought guarantees that negotiations will lead to a permanent end to the Gaza war, complicating the proposed 60-day truce framework. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed hope for a deal but stressed Israel’s security needs, including maintaining troop presence in key areas. As of July 10, mediators were reviewing Hamas’s response, with no immediate resolution in sight.
3. **Title:** Hamas and Israel set to resume negotiations over ceasefire proposal
**Description:** A Washington Post report on the resumption of talks in Doha and the obstacles between the two sides.
**Date of Publication:** July 13, 2025
**Summary:** Talks resumed in early July with a focus on a US-backed proposal for hostage swaps and a temporary ceasefire, but Hamas rejected aspects related to Israeli control of borders. Egyptian and Qatari mediators warned that unresolved issues could delay any declaration beyond mid-July. Netanyahu’s government indicated willingness to proceed if Hamas drops certain demands, highlighting ongoing diplomatic pressure.
4. **Title:** Hamas submits ‘positive response’ to ceasefire proposal in major step toward a deal
**Description:** A CNN article detailing Hamas’s formal response to the ceasefire framework and its implications for negotiations.
**Date of Publication:** July 4, 2025
**Summary:** Hamas announced a positive response to a 60-day ceasefire proposal, signaling readiness for immediate talks on implementation, including hostage releases. However, the group insisted on binding guarantees for a permanent end to hostilities, which Israel has not fully committed to. This development marked a potential breakthrough but left key details unresolved as of early July.
5. **Title:** Israel sends team to Qatar for negotiations, but rejects Hamas demands to change ceasefire proposal
**Description:** A Guardian article on Israel’s participation in talks and the rejection of Hamas’s modifications to the proposal.
**Date of Publication:** July 7, 2025
**Summary:** Israel’s negotiation team arrived in Qatar to discuss a temporary ceasefire and hostage deal, but officials dismissed Hamas’s calls for alterations, such as full troop withdrawals. Despite this, mediators reported some progress in aligning positions, with hopes for a deal in mid-July. The article highlighted growing international pressure on both sides to avoid escalation.
6. **Title:** July 11: IDF says it killed 6 top members of Hamas naval commando forces in recent Gaza strikes
**Description:** A Times of Israel live update on military actions amid ceasefire discussions, including Netanyahu’s comments on negotiations.
**Date of Publication:** July 11, 2025
**Summary:** Amid stalled talks, Netanyahu expressed optimism for a 60-day ceasefire and hostage release deal, potentially starting soon, but conditioned on Hamas’s flexibility. The update noted ongoing military operations as a complicating factor, with experts warning that such actions could derail diplomacy. As of July 11, no final agreement was confirmed, underscoring the tension between negotiation and conflict.
7. **Title:** 2025 Gaza war ceasefire
**Description:** A Wikipedia page summarizing the history and current status of ceasefire efforts, based on recent edits and sources.
**Date of Publication:** July 14, 2025 (last updated)
**Summary:** The page details ongoing complications, including Egypt’s concerns over Israeli border presence and Hamas’s rejections of proposals in July 2025. It cites reports that Netanyahu has historically resisted deals, but recent negotiations in Doha show tentative progress toward a temporary truce. As of mid-July, the entry emphasizes that no ceasefire has been declared, with mediators still working on unresolved demands.
8. **Title:** Updates: Hamas sends ‘positive’ response on ceasefire, Israel kills 50
**Description:** An Al Jazeera live blog on Hamas’s response and related events in Gaza.
**Date of Publication:** July 4, 2025
**Summary:** Hamas communicated a positive stance on the ceasefire proposal to mediators, advocating for immediate talks to implement a 60-day pause and end the war. However, simultaneous Israeli military actions, including strikes that killed dozens, raised doubts about the feasibility of a deal in early July. Expert analysts in the blog suggested that sustained violence could undermine negotiation momentum.
9. **Title:** Hamas Says It Is Ready to Negotiate Truce Proposal
**Description:** A New York Times article on Hamas’s willingness to engage and the uncertainties around the proposal.
**Date of Publication:** July 4, 2025
**Summary:** Hamas indicated readiness to negotiate a 60-day truce with provisions for hostage exchanges and war-ending discussions, but clarity on changes to the plan remained unclear. US officials backed the framework, viewing it as a step toward de-escalation, though Israeli sources expressed reservations. As of July 4, this response fueled hopes for a July resolution but highlighted persistent gaps.
10. **Title:** Posts on X reflect mixed sentiment on ceasefire negotiations
**Description:** A synthesis of recent posts from X (formerly Twitter) discussing public and expert reactions to the talks.
**Date of Publication:** Various posts from July 3–13, 2025 (summarized as of July 16, 2025)
**Summary:** Posts from users, including news accounts and analysts, showed optimism about Hamas’s positive response to a 60-day deal but skepticism over Israel’s conditions, with some mentioning potential delays. Sentiment indicated growing public pressure for a truce, though experts cautioned that unverified claims on the platform could exaggerate progress. Overall, these posts suggest inconclusive momentum toward a declaration but are not reliable evidence on their own.
### Detailed Rundown of Relevant News and Context
Based on the citations above, ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas have seen notable activity in July 2025, with several recent updates indicating potential movement toward a declaration. As of July 16, 2025, the most recent sources (e.g., Reuters on July 15) report that talks in Doha are ongoing, centered on a US-backed proposal for a 60-day ceasefire that includes phased hostage releases, partial Israeli troop withdrawals from Gaza, and subsequent discussions for a permanent end to the conflict. Hamas has submitted positive responses (as noted in citations from July 4–13), signaling willingness to negotiate, but Israel has rejected key demands, such as full withdrawals and binding guarantees, creating significant hurdles. This aligns with expert opinions from mediators like Qatari and Egyptian officials, who have expressed cautious optimism but warned of fading prospects if differences aren’t resolved soon.
Recent updates suggest incremental progress: For instance, Netanyahu has publicly indicated a “good chance” for a deal (as per Times of Israel on July 11), potentially starting within days, but Hamas’s insistence on changes to the proposal has stalled momentum. No official declaration has been made as of July 16, and military actions in Gaza continue, which could complicate matters. Historical data from the past year shows seasonal fluctuations in diplomacy, with intensified talks often occurring in summer months due to international pressure, but quarter-over-quarter assessments (e.g., from Q2 to Q3 2025) reveal persistent volatility in negotiations.
Authoritative sources, such as US statements in the Reuters and NYT articles, emphasize that any resolution would likely require verification through official channels like the Qatar-mediated talks. While I couldn’t access real-time resolution data (e.g., from UN or US State Department pages), historical patterns from July 2024 (as referenced in Wikipedia) indicate that past proposals often collapsed due to similar issues. Public sentiment on X reflects a mix of hope and uncertainty, with posts highlighting potential breakthroughs but underscoring the need for caution, as these are not factual evidence.
This context provides a comprehensive overview without producing any forecasts—please use it to inform your own analysis. If you need further clarification or additional sources, let me know.
AskNews Deep Usage:
prompt_tokens=24963 completion_tokens=1982 total_tokens=0
AskNews Deep Search Response:
**Analysis of Ceasefire Prospects Between Israel and Hamas in July 2025**
As of July 16, 2025, negotiations remain highly fluid, with conflicting signals about the likelihood of a ceasefire. Below is a synthesis of recent developments (July 9–16, 2025) from authoritative sources:
### Key Developments & Citations:
1. **Mediation Momentum (Positive Indicators):**
– Egypt, Qatar, and the U.S. are leading diplomatic efforts to broker a ceasefire, with indirect talks ongoing in Doha. Israel has shown flexibility on control of the strategic *Mourag* crossing (critical for Hamas’ governance in Gaza) [1][5].
– A proposed 60-day ceasefire framework includes phased hostage releases, humanitarian aid access, and Israeli troop withdrawals from parts of Gaza. U.S. President Donald Trump has pledged support, stating, *”We are very close to an agreement”* [13][28].
– Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly signaled openness to *”middle ground solutions”* on prisoner exchanges and partial withdrawal [1][5].
2. **Key Obstacles (Negative Indicators):**
– **Withdrawal Disputes:** Hamas demands a complete Israeli withdrawal to pre-March 2023 lines and rejects Israeli proposals to retain control of 40% of Gaza (including Rafah and northern/eastern borders) [4][16][20]. Netanyahu insists on maintaining security control, calling Hamas’ demands *”surrender”* [2][6][26].
– **Humanitarian Aid:** Hamas opposes Israel’s demand to retain oversight of aid distribution via the *”Gaza Humanitarian Agency”* (criticized by the UN as selective) [2][17].
– **Permanent Ceasefire Guarantees:** Hamas seeks binding U.S./international assurances that Israel will not resume hostilities after the truce, which Netanyahu refuses to commit to [22][27][33].
3. **Humanitarian Crisis & Pressure Points:**
– Palestinian casualties: **57,680+ killed, 137,409+ injured** (as of July 16, per Gaza Health Ministry) [1][8][26].
– ~49 Israeli hostages remain in Gaza, with Netanyahu facing domestic pressure to secure their release [36][38].
4. **Recent Setbacks (July 13–16):**
– Talks stalled over Israel’s revised *”redeployment maps”* (not full withdrawal), which Hamas likened to *”Nazi camps”* [12][17].
– Aid-related airstrikes killed 30+ Palestinians on July 13, exacerbating distrust [16].
– Netanyahu’s coalition resists concessions, demanding Hamas’ disarmament as a precondition [20][29].
### Expert Opinions & Forecast Context:
– **Optimistic View:** U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff claims 3/4 contentious issues are resolved, with a potential agreement by late July [33][37]. Qatari mediators describe momentum as *”greater than ever”* [1][5].
– **Pessimistic View:** Analysts warn negotiations are near collapse due to *”asymmetric power dynamics”* and U.S. bias toward Israel [4][14]. A Palestinian official stated, *”Israel is negotiating in bad faith”* [4][11].
### Resolution Criteria & Limitations:
– No authoritative source (e.g., UN, ICC) has final arbitration power. Success hinges on U.S.-Egypt-Qatar mediation.
– The **60-day framework** (if finalized) would likely extend into August 2025, with permanent terms unresolved.
### Conclusion:
As of July 16, the balance of evidence leans **slightly toward NO ceasefire in July 2025**, given unresolved withdrawal disputes, Netanyahu’s political constraints, and ongoing military operations. However, mediator urgency (e.g., Trump’s “next week” timeline [13][28]) and Hamas’ flexibility on aid terms [33] leave a ~35% chance of a last-minute agreement.
**Key Citations:** [1][4][5][13][16][20][22][26][33].
GPT News Summary:
As of July 16, 2025, the possibility of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas being declared by the end of July 2025 remains uncertain. Recent developments and negotiations provide mixed signals regarding the potential for a breakthrough in reaching a ceasefire agreement.
1. **Negotiation Progress**: Indirect negotiations in Doha involving Hamas and Israel, mediated by Qatar, the US, and Egypt, show signs of both progress and challenges. An article from July 15, 2025, on AA News reported “dramatic progress” in the talks, with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu showing “additional flexibility” regarding troop withdrawals from Gaza (AA, July 15, 2025). However, other reports from the same day highlighted setbacks, indicating no ceasefire agreement had been reached, and optimism from US President Donald Trump had not materialized into a concrete deal (Qoshe, July 15, 2025).
2. **Stalled Talks**: Several sources note the ongoing stall in negotiations. Hamas accuses Israel of rejecting ceasefire agreements, while Israel insists on maintaining control over significant portions of Gaza, a major sticking point in the negotiations (RTP, July 14, 2025; Ellitoral, July 14, 2025). Mediators are attempting to find innovative solutions to bridge remaining gaps, but these have yet to yield an agreement (Journaldemontreal, July 14, 2025).
3. **Recent Incidents and Tensions**: Continued violence in Gaza adds complexity to the ceasefire efforts. Recent reports cite over 28 Palestinian casualties from Israeli airstrikes and highlight the profound humanitarian crisis in the region (Yahoo News, July 12, 2025). The territorial disputes, particularly over Israeli troop control over 40% of Gaza, further impede progress (EconoTimes, July 12, 2025).
4. **Upcoming Discussions**: US President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet with Qatar’s Prime Minister on July 16 to discuss the ceasefire, potentially offering another opportunity to advance talks (Straits Times, July 16, 2025). Trump remains hopeful for a resolution, though previous optimism has not yet resulted in a tangible agreement.
5. **Analyst Predictions**: Analyst Gershon Baskin predicts a ceasefire could come by the end of July, albeit potentially as a “bad agreement” (Dagospia, July 14, 2025). However, skepticism remains due to entrenched positions and recent failures to secure an agreement.
In summary, while there are some movements toward a potential ceasefire, the deep-seated disagreements and ongoing violence cast doubt on the likelihood of a deal being reached within the remaining weeks of July 2025. The situation remains fluid, contingent on diplomatic interventions and potential breakthroughs in negotiations.
Extracted resolution criteria links:
[]
Adjacent Markets Research:
No relevant and active prediction markets found.
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________________________
Anthropic Binary response:
# Reasoning on Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Prospects for July 2025
## Current Situation Analysis
Based on multiple research assistant reports, the Israel-Hamas conflict continues with active but challenging ceasefire negotiations as of July 16, 2025. Key developments include:
1. **Ongoing negotiations** in Doha with U.S., Qatar, and Egypt as mediators, focusing on a proposed 60-day ceasefire framework
2. **Recent diplomatic movement**: Hamas offered to release 10 hostages (July 9) and Israel submitted a third troop deployment map showing some flexibility
3. **Major obstacles remain**:
– Israel’s insistence on maintaining control over ~40% of Gaza versus Hamas’s demand for complete withdrawal
– Disagreements over humanitarian aid distribution mechanisms
– Hamas’s demand for binding guarantees against future hostilities
– Netanyahu’s political constraints from his coalition
## Time Horizon Assessment
With the resolution date of August 1, we have only 15 days remaining for a ceasefire to be declared. This narrow timeframe significantly constrains the probability, as complex diplomatic agreements typically require more time to finalize, especially given the major unresolved issues.
## Historical Precedent
Previous Israel-Hamas ceasefires have typically required:
– Intense international pressure
– Clear incentives for both parties
– A mediator with leverage over both sides
– Exhaustion from both parties
The current situation shows some of these elements (international mediation, pressure for hostage releases) but lacks others (Netanyahu’s political will, Hamas’s trust in guarantees).
## Key Assumptions and Their Probabilities
1. **Assumption**: The remaining gaps can be bridged within 15 days
– **Probability of incorrectness**: 75%
– **Reasoning**: The fundamental disagreements (troop withdrawal, permanent guarantees) have persisted for months, and Netanyahu’s coalition constraints make rapid concessions unlikely.
2. **Assumption**: External pressure (from U.S., hostage families) will force Netanyahu to accept Hamas’s terms
– **Probability of incorrectness**: 65%
– **Reasoning**: While pressure exists, Netanyahu has historically prioritized security concerns and coalition stability over external demands.
3. **Assumption**: Hamas will accept partial concessions rather than holding out for complete demands
– **Probability of incorrectness**: 70%
– **Reasoning**: Hamas has consistently rejected partial solutions, viewing this as their strongest leverage point after prolonged conflict.
## Factors Increasing Probability
1. Active high-level mediation continuing in Doha
2. Reported “dramatic progress” in some areas (per AA News, July 15)
3. Hamas’s July 9 hostage release offer indicates potential flexibility
4. U.S. President Trump’s apparent prioritization of a deal
## Factors Decreasing Probability
1. Fundamental disagreements on withdrawal scope and permanent guarantees
2. Netanyahu’s characterization of Hamas demands as “surrender”
3. Recent violence (July 13 airstrikes) undermining trust
4. Historical pattern of failed negotiations despite apparent progress
## Alternative Timeframe Analysis
– Probability of ceasefire in next 7 days (by July 23): ~10% (even more constrained timeline with same obstacles)
– Probability of ceasefire by August 15 (30 days): ~40% (additional time allows for more negotiation rounds)
– Probability of ceasefire by September 15 (60 days): ~55% (aligns with the proposed 60-day framework timeframe)
This suggests the likelihood increases substantially with a longer timeframe, indicating the current two-week window is particularly challenging.
## Final Assessment
Considering the major unresolved issues, the compressed timeframe, and historical patterns of negotiation, a ceasefire declaration between Israel and Hamas in the remaining days of July 2025 appears unlikely. While there is diplomatic movement and external pressure, the fundamental gaps on withdrawal scope, security guarantees, and Hamas’s future role remain substantial.
The research indicates negotiations are active but progress is incremental rather than transformative. Neither side appears ready to make the major concessions necessary for an immediate agreement. Netanyahu faces significant political constraints, while Hamas is unwilling to accept partial solutions after the prolonged conflict.
Taking all factors into account, including the very limited timeframe, persistent disagreements, and historical precedent, I estimate:
Probability: 25%
The extracted probability is: 25%
________________________
Anthropic Binary response:
## Reasoning Rationale
I need to determine the probability of a ceasefire being declared between Israel and Hamas in July 2025, considering we’re already on July 16th with just 15 days remaining in the month.
### Key Information Assessment
My research assistants have provided detailed summaries of the current situation. Let me analyze the most relevant points:
1. **Current State of Negotiations (as of July 16, 2025)**:
– Indirect talks in Doha involving Hamas, Israel, and mediators (US, Qatar, Egypt)
– A 60-day ceasefire framework is being discussed that includes hostage releases, humanitarian aid, and partial Israeli troop withdrawals
– Israel has shown some flexibility by submitting a “third troop deployment map”
– Hamas offered to release 10 hostages on July 9th as a confidence-building measure
2. **Major Obstacles**:
– Withdrawal disputes: Hamas demands complete Israeli withdrawal; Israel insists on maintaining control of 40% of Gaza
– Disagreement over aid distribution mechanisms
– Hamas wants binding guarantees for a permanent ceasefire; Netanyahu refuses to commit
– Netanyahu’s coalition partners resist concessions
3. **Recent Developments (July 13-16)**:
– Talks stalled over Israel’s “redeployment maps”
– Aid-related airstrikes killed 30+ Palestinians on July 13th, increasing tensions
– US President Trump scheduled to meet Qatar’s PM on July 16th to discuss the ceasefire
4. **Expert Assessments**:
– US envoy Steve Witkoff claims 3/4 of contentious issues are resolved
– Qatari mediators describe momentum as “greater than ever”
– Other analysts warn negotiations are near collapse due to “asymmetric power dynamics”
### Time Constraint Analysis
With only 15 days remaining in July, any ceasefire declaration would need to happen relatively quickly. This is a tight timeline given the current impasses.
### Historical Precedent
Looking at historical Israel-Hamas ceasefires:
– Negotiations typically take weeks to months, especially when there are significant disagreements
– Previous ceasefires often required dramatic shifts in positions or external pressure
– The complexity of this conflict (hostage situation, Gaza governance, humanitarian crisis) makes rapid resolution difficult
### Key Assumptions and Their Probabilities
1. **Assumption**: The current negotiation framework can bridge the gap between Israel and Hamas positions.
– Probability of being incorrect: 70%
– Impact: Critical – without a viable framework, no ceasefire can be declared
2. **Assumption**: External mediators (US, Qatar, Egypt) can apply sufficient pressure to forge a compromise.
– Probability of being incorrect: 55%
– Impact: High – mediators have historically been crucial in facilitating agreements
3. **Assumption**: Netanyahu’s government has genuine willingness to compromise on key issues like withdrawal.
– Probability of being incorrect: 65%
– Impact: Critical – political constraints may prevent necessary concessions
### Forecast Timeline Analysis
– **Within 15 days (by July 31, 2025)**: Based on current evidence, the probability appears low. Major obstacles remain unresolved, and the tight timeline works against complex negotiations.
– **Within 45 days (by August 31, 2025)**: Significantly higher probability, as this would allow time to resolve contentious issues and implement the proposed 60-day framework.
– **Within 90 days (by October 2025)**: Even higher probability, as external pressures and humanitarian concerns could force compromise.
### Base Rate Considerations
The base rate for successful ceasefire declarations in similar conflicts with entrenched positions is low, particularly when negotiations face significant hurdles and tight timelines.
### Final Analysis
Given the remaining obstacles (particularly regarding troop withdrawal and permanent guarantees), combined with the short timeline and historical precedent, I assess that a ceasefire declaration by July 31st is unlikely but not impossible. Recent positive signals from mediators and Hamas’s hostage release offer provide some basis for optimism, but fundamental disagreements remain unresolved.
The most likely scenario is continued negotiations extending into August, with potential incremental progress but no formal declaration in July. Given the complexity, I must avoid overconfidence in predicting a negative outcome.
Considering all factors, I estimate:
Probability: 25%
The extracted probability is: 25%
Gemini Binary response:
Rationale:
The question asks for the probability of a ceasefire being *declared* between Israel and Hamas in the month of July 2025. Today’s date is July 16, 2025, meaning the relevant timeframe is the next 15 days.
1. **Current State of Negotiations:** Negotiations are ongoing in Doha, mediated by the United States, Qatar, and Egypt. Reports indicate a US-backed proposal for a 60-day ceasefire, phased hostage releases, and partial Israeli troop withdrawals [Grok 1, Grok 2, Grok 3]. Hamas has given a “positive response” to this framework, signaling a willingness to engage [Grok 4, Grok 8, Grok 9]. Israel has also shown some flexibility, for example, by submitting a third troop deployment map and reportedly open to “middle ground solutions” on prisoner exchanges [RA1 1, RA2 1]. U.S. President Donald Trump has expressed optimism for a deal, stating, “We are very close to an agreement” [RA2 13, RA2 28, RA3].
2. **Key Obstacles:** Despite some positive indicators, significant and fundamental disagreements persist. The primary obstacles revolve around Hamas’s demand for a complete cessation of hostilities and a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza to pre-March 2023 lines, which Netanyahu characterizes as “unachievable” and “surrender” [RA1 1, RA1 3, RA2 2, RA2 6, RA2 26]. Israel insists on maintaining security control over significant portions of Gaza, including Rafah and northern/eastern borders, and has rejected Hamas’s demands for full withdrawal [RA2 4, RA2 16, RA2 20]. Hamas also seeks binding U.S./international assurances that Israel will not resume hostilities after a truce, which Netanyahu refuses to commit to [RA2 22, RA2 27, RA2 33]. Furthermore, Netanyahu’s coalition resists concessions, demanding Hamas’s disarmament as a precondition [RA2 20, RA2 29].
3. **Recent Setbacks and Mixed Signals:** While early July saw some optimism, more recent reports (July 13-16) indicate stalled talks. Hamas has likened Israel’s revised “redeployment maps” to “Nazi camps,” and continued aid-related airstrikes have occurred [RA2 12, RA2 16, RA2 17]. Mediators from Qatar and Egypt have reported “fading optimism” due to the persistent demands [Grok 1]. Military operations continue, which complicates diplomatic efforts [Grok 6].
4. **Timeframe and Historical Context:** The remaining time in July 2025 is very short (15 days). Reaching a declared ceasefire, even a temporary one, requires overcoming deep-seated and existential disagreements between the parties. Historically, such conflicts are protracted, and temporary ceasefires often require significant shifts in positions that have not yet fully materialized. While some analysts suggest a “bad agreement” could happen by the end of July [RA3], the overall sentiment from multiple sources is that negotiations are struggling with fundamental issues.
5. **Expert Opinions:** Expert opinions are mixed, reflecting the fluidity of the situation. Some U.S. and Qatari officials express cautious optimism, citing progress on some issues [RA2 33, RA2 37, RA2 1, RA2 5]. However, other analysts and Palestinian officials warn that negotiations are “near collapse” due to “asymmetric power dynamics” and Israel negotiating “in bad faith” [RA2 4, RA2 11, RA2 14].
6. **Conclusion:** The balance of evidence points to significant hurdles remaining for a ceasefire declaration within July 2025. While negotiations are active and there are external pressures, the core demands of both sides remain largely irreconcilable within the current framework. The short timeframe of 15 days makes a breakthrough on these complex issues particularly challenging. The default scenario, based on recent trends, is continued negotiations without a formal declaration.
**Assumptions and their potential failure:**
* **Assumption 1: Either side will significantly concede on their core demands regarding a permanent ceasefire and/or full IDF withdrawal.** The probability of this assumption failing is high. Both sides have shown extreme rigidity on these points, viewing them as non-negotiable strategic imperatives. If this assumption fails, a ceasefire is highly unlikely.
* **Assumption 2: Mediators can introduce a fundamentally new and acceptable compromise proposal that resolves the key sticking points.** The probability of this assumption failing is moderate. While mediators are actively trying to bridge gaps, past efforts haven’t produced a solution acceptable to both parties on the most contentious issues. If such a proposal doesn’t emerge or is rejected, the current stalemate will persist.
Considering the short duration, the profound nature of the disagreements, and the current military actions, the probability of a formal ceasefire being *declared* in July 2025 is low.
Probability: 20%
The extracted probability is: 20%
Task failed with error: 400 Client Error: Bad Request for url: https://llm-proxy.metaculus.com/proxy/anthropic/v1/messages/
Traceback (most recent call last):
File “/home/runner/work/metaculus-forecasting-llm/metaculus-forecasting-llm/src/main.py”, line 85, in fetch_anthropic_binary_prediction
return await fetch_sync(get_anthropic_binary_prediction, title, perplexity_summary_report, asknews_summary, asknews_deep_research, vision_analysis, grok_report, adjacent_markets_research, today, resolution_date, background, fine_print, resolution_criteria)
File “/home/runner/work/metaculus-forecasting-llm/metaculus-forecasting-llm/src/main.py”, line 63, in fetch_sync
return await asyncio.get_event_loop().run_in_executor(
File “/opt/hostedtoolcache/Python/3.10.18/x64/lib/python3.10/concurrent/futures/thread.py”, line 58, in run
result = self.fn(*self.args, **self.kwargs)
File “/home/runner/work/metaculus-forecasting-llm/metaculus-forecasting-llm/src/main.py”, line 59, in run_sync
return future.result(timeout=180)
File “/opt/hostedtoolcache/Python/3.10.18/x64/lib/python3.10/concurrent/futures/_base.py”, line 458, in result
return self.__get_result()
File “/opt/hostedtoolcache/Python/3.10.18/x64/lib/python3.10/concurrent/futures/_base.py”, line 403, in __get_result
raise self._exception
File “/opt/hostedtoolcache/Python/3.10.18/x64/lib/python3.10/concurrent/futures/thread.py”, line 58, in run
result = self.fn(*self.args, **self.kwargs)
File “/home/runner/work/metaculus-forecasting-llm/metaculus-forecasting-llm/src/anthropic_service.py”, line 129, in get_anthropic_binary_prediction
response.raise_for_status()
File “/home/runner/work/metaculus-forecasting-llm/metaculus-forecasting-llm/.venv/lib/python3.10/site-packages/requests/models.py”, line 1024, in raise_for_status
raise HTTPError(http_error_msg, response=self)
requests.exceptions.HTTPError: 400 Client Error: Bad Request for url: https://llm-proxy.metaculus.com/proxy/anthropic/v1/messages/
All predictions: [20, 25, 25]
Filtered predictions: [25]
Median reasoning:
## Reasoning Rationale
I need to determine the probability of a ceasefire being declared between Israel and Hamas in July 2025, considering we’re already on July 16th with just 15 days remaining in the month.
### Key Information Assessment
My research assistants have provided detailed summaries of the current situation. Let me analyze the most relevant points:
1. **Current State of Negotiations (as of July 16, 2025)**:
– Indirect talks in Doha involving Hamas, Israel, and mediators (US, Qatar, Egypt)
– A 60-day ceasefire framework is being discussed that includes hostage releases, humanitarian aid, and partial Israeli troop withdrawals
– Israel has shown some flexibility by submitting a “third troop deployment map”
– Hamas offered to release 10 hostages on July 9th as a confidence-building measure
2. **Major Obstacles**:
– Withdrawal disputes: Hamas demands complete Israeli withdrawal; Israel insists on maintaining control of 40% of Gaza
– Disagreement over aid distribution mechanisms
– Hamas wants binding guarantees for a permanent ceasefire; Netanyahu refuses to commit
– Netanyahu’s coalition partners resist concessions
3. **Recent Developments (July 13-16)**:
– Talks stalled over Israel’s “redeployment maps”
– Aid-related airstrikes killed 30+ Palestinians on July 13th, increasing tensions
– US President Trump scheduled to meet Qatar’s PM on July 16th to discuss the ceasefire
4. **Expert Assessments**:
– US envoy Steve Witkoff claims 3/4 of contentious issues are resolved
– Qatari mediators describe momentum as “greater than ever”
– Other analysts warn negotiations are near collapse due to “asymmetric power dynamics”
### Time Constraint Analysis
With only 15 days remaining in July, any ceasefire declaration would need to happen relatively quickly. This is a tight timeline given the current impasses.
### Historical Precedent
Looking at historical Israel-Hamas ceasefires:
– Negotiations typically take weeks to months, especially when there are significant disagreements
– Previous ceasefires often required dramatic shifts in positions or external pressure
– The complexity of this conflict (hostage situation, Gaza governance, humanitarian crisis) makes rapid resolution difficult
### Key Assumptions and Their Probabilities
1. **Assumption**: The current negotiation framework can bridge the gap between Israel and Hamas positions.
– Probability of being incorrect: 70%
– Impact: Critical – without a viable framework, no ceasefire can be declared
2. **Assumption**: External mediators (US, Qatar, Egypt) can apply sufficient pressure to forge a compromise.
– Probability of being incorrect: 55%
– Impact: High – mediators have historically been crucial in facilitating agreements
3. **Assumption**: Netanyahu’s government has genuine willingness to compromise on key issues like withdrawal.
– Probability of being incorrect: 65%
– Impact: Critical – political constraints may prevent necessary concessions
### Forecast Timeline Analysis
– **Within 15 days (by July 31, 2025)**: Based on current evidence, the probability appears low. Major obstacles remain unresolved, and the tight timeline works against complex negotiations.
– **Within 45 days (by August 31, 2025)**: Significantly higher probability, as this would allow time to resolve contentious issues and implement the proposed 60-day framework.
– **Within 90 days (by October 2025)**: Even higher probability, as external pressures and humanitarian concerns could force compromise.
### Base Rate Considerations
The base rate for successful ceasefire declarations in similar conflicts with entrenched positions is low, particularly when negotiations face significant hurdles and tight timelines.
### Final Analysis
Given the remaining obstacles (particularly regarding troop withdrawal and permanent guarantees), combined with the short timeline and historical precedent, I assess that a ceasefire declaration by July 31st is unlikely but not impossible. Recent positive signals from mediators and Hamas’s hostage release offer provide some basis for optimism, but fundamental disagreements remain unresolved.
The most likely scenario is continued negotiations extending into August, with potential incremental progress but no formal declaration in July. Given the complexity, I must avoid overconfidence in predicting a negative outcome.
Considering all factors, I estimate:
Probability: 25%
=== Forecast Result ===
{
“probability_yes”: 0.25,
“probability_yes_per_category”: null,
“continuous_cdf”: null
}
=== Reasoning ===
## Reasoning Rationale
I need to determine the probability of a ceasefire being declared between Israel and Hamas in July 2025, considering we’re already on July 16th with just 15 days remaining in the month.
### Key Information Assessment
My research assistants have provided detailed summaries of the current situation. Let me analyze the most relevant points:
1. **Current State of Negotiations (as of July 16, 2025)**:
– Indirect talks in Doha involving Hamas, Israel, and mediators (US, Qatar, Egypt)
– A 60-day ceasefire framework is being discussed that includes hostage releases, humanitarian aid, and partial Israeli troop withdrawals
– Israel has shown some flexibility by submitting a “third troop deployment map”
– Hamas offered to release 10 hostages on July 9th as a confidence-building measure
2. **Major Obstacles**:
– Withdrawal disputes: Hamas demands complete Israeli withdrawal; Israel insists on maintaining control of 40% of Gaza
– Disagreement over aid distribution mechanisms
– Hamas wants binding guarantees for a permanent ceasefire; Netanyahu refuses to commit
– Netanyahu’s coalition partners resist concessions
3. **Recent Developments (July 13-16)**:
– Talks stalled over Israel’s “redeployment maps”
– Aid-related airstrikes killed 30+ Palestinians on July 13th, increasing tensions
– US President Trump scheduled to meet Qatar’s PM on July 16th to discuss the ceasefire
4. **Expert Assessments**:
– US envoy Steve Witkoff claims 3/4 of contentious issues are resolved
– Qatari mediators describe momentum as “greater than ever”
– Other analysts warn negotiations are near collapse due to “asymmetric power dynamics”
### Time Constraint Analysis
With only 15 days remaining in July, any ceasefire declaration would need to happen relatively quickly. This is a tight timeline given the current impasses.
### Historical Precedent
Looking at historical Israel-Hamas ceasefires:
– Negotiations typically take weeks to months, especially when there are significant disagreements
– Previous ceasefires often required dramatic shifts in positions or external pressure
– The complexity of this conflict (hostage situation, Gaza governance, humanitarian crisis) makes rapid resolution difficult
### Key Assumptions and Their Probabilities
1. **Assumption**: The current negotiation framework can bridge the gap between Israel and Hamas positions.
– Probability of being incorrect: 70%
– Impact: Critical – without a viable framework, no ceasefire can be declared
2. **Assumption**: External mediators (US, Qatar, Egypt) can apply sufficient pressure to forge a compromise.
– Probability of being incorrect: 55%
– Impact: High – mediators have historically been crucial in facilitating agreements
3. **Assumption**: Netanyahu’s government has genuine willingness to compromise on key issues like withdrawal.
– Probability of being incorrect: 65%
– Impact: Critical – political constraints may prevent necessary concessions
### Forecast Timeline Analysis
– **Within 15 days (by July 31, 2025)**: Based on current evidence, the probability appears low. Major obstacles remain unresolved, and the tight timeline works against complex negotiations.
– **Within 45 days (by August 31, 2025)**: Significantly higher probability, as this would allow time to resolve contentious issues and implement the proposed 60-day framework.
– **Within 90 days (by October 2025)**: Even higher probability, as external pressures and humanitarian concerns could force compromise.
### Base Rate Considerations
The base rate for successful ceasefire declarations in similar conflicts with entrenched positions is low, particularly when negotiations face significant hurdles and tight timelines.

### Final Analysis
Given the remaining obstacles (particularly regarding troop withdrawal and permanent guarantees), combined with the short timeline and historical precedent, I assess that a ceasefire declaration by July 31st is unlikely but not impossible. Recent positive signals from mediators and Hamas’s hostage release offer provide some basis for optimism, but fundamental disagreements remain unresolved.

The most likely scenario is continued negotiations extending into August, with potential incremental progress but no formal declaration in July. Given the complexity, I must avoid overconfidence in predicting a negative outcome.

Considering all factors, I estimate:
Probability: 25%