Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of July 2025?
19–24 minutes read
Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai bot predicts today: 42%
Perplexity response:
{think}
1. **Title**: Israel Daily News – War Day 648 | July 15, 2025
**Date**: 2025-07-15
**Summary**: Discusses Netanyahu’s denial of blame for October 7, ongoing negotiations focusing on IDF withdrawal and aid mechanisms. Israel submitted a third troop deployment map, showing flexibility. Hostage families push for return, with some believed alive. Hamas insists on ceasefire terms that Netanyahu deems impractical.
2. **Title**: Hamas says it will release 10 hostages as part of ceasefire negotiations
**Date**: 2025-07-09
**Summary**: Hamas offers to release 10 hostages in ceasefire talks, details unclear. No official response from Israel or U.S. Move seen as potential confidence-building measure but without confirmation.
3. **Title**: When Will a Ceasefire Happen?
**Date**: 2025-07-15
**Summary**: Rami Igra explains Hamas’s insistence on cessation of hostilities, IDF redeployment, and Gaza rehabilitation. Netanyahu may eventually agree to terms allowing Hamas under a new government. Current diplomatic efforts seen as ineffective without viable alternatives.
4. **Title**: The World since 7 October – London Review of Books
**Date**: 2025-07-15
**Summary**: Analyzes the failure of previous peace processes leading to current conflict. Critiques diplomatic approaches focused on symbolic gestures rather than addressing root issues. Suggests systemic changes needed for lasting solution beyond temporary ceasefires.
Now, analyzing these: Recent negotiations (July 15) show some movement, like Israel’s troop maps and Hamas’s hostage offer. However, major disagreements remain on IDF withdrawal and Hamas’s role. Experts (Igra, Shatz) suggest systemic issues hindering progress. The hostage release (July 9) is a partial measure but not a definitive step. Considering the dates, July 15 sources are most recent, indicating active but unresolved talks. The likelihood in July 2025 depends on these negotiations reaching agreement, which current reports don’t confirm. The presence of Egypt, UAE, and Palestinian Authority in Hamas’s proposed government (source 3) might indicate a pathway, but Netanyahu’s resistance (source 1) is a hurdle. No clear resolution is imminent based on provided info; more mediation or shifts in positions needed.
{/think}
Grok response:
1. **Title:** US-backed ceasefire plan for Gaza still under discussion, but optimism fading
**Description:** A Reuters article on the latest round of ceasefire negotiations in Doha, focusing on the US proposal and remaining hurdles.
**Date of Publication:** July 15, 2025
**Summary:** Israeli and Hamas negotiators have been discussing a 60-day ceasefire since July 6, involving phased hostage releases and Israeli troop withdrawals, but major differences persist. Mediators from Qatar and Egypt reported fading optimism due to Hamas’s demands for stronger guarantees on ending the war permanently. Recent updates indicate that while talks continue, no final agreement has been reached as of mid-July.
2. **Title:** Where Do Israel-Hamas Cease-Fire Negotiations Stand?
**Description:** A New York Times analysis of the current state of ceasefire talks, emphasizing Hamas’s conditions and US involvement.
**Date of Publication:** July 10, 2025
**Summary:** Hamas has sought guarantees that negotiations will lead to a permanent end to the Gaza war, complicating the proposed 60-day truce framework. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed hope for a deal but stressed Israel’s security needs, including maintaining troop presence in key areas. As of July 10, mediators were reviewing Hamas’s response, with no immediate resolution in sight.
3. **Title:** Hamas and Israel set to resume negotiations over ceasefire proposal
**Description:** A Washington Post report on the resumption of talks in Doha and the obstacles between the two sides.
**Date of Publication:** July 13, 2025
**Summary:** Talks resumed in early July with a focus on a US-backed proposal for hostage swaps and a temporary ceasefire, but Hamas rejected aspects related to Israeli control of borders. Egyptian and Qatari mediators warned that unresolved issues could delay any declaration beyond mid-July. Netanyahu’s government indicated willingness to proceed if Hamas drops certain demands, highlighting ongoing diplomatic pressure.
4. **Title:** Hamas submits ‘positive response’ to ceasefire proposal in major step toward a deal
**Description:** A CNN article detailing Hamas’s formal response to the ceasefire framework and its implications for negotiations.
**Date of Publication:** July 4, 2025
**Summary:** Hamas announced a positive response to a 60-day ceasefire proposal, signaling readiness for immediate talks on implementation, including hostage releases. However, the group insisted on binding guarantees for a permanent end to hostilities, which Israel has not fully committed to. This development marked a potential breakthrough but left key details unresolved as of early July.
5. **Title:** Israel sends team to Qatar for negotiations, but rejects Hamas demands to change ceasefire proposal
**Description:** A Guardian article on Israel’s participation in talks and the rejection of Hamas’s modifications to the proposal.
**Date of Publication:** July 7, 2025
**Summary:** Israel’s negotiation team arrived in Qatar to discuss a temporary ceasefire and hostage deal, but officials dismissed Hamas’s calls for alterations, such as full troop withdrawals. Despite this, mediators reported some progress in aligning positions, with hopes for a deal in mid-July. The article highlighted growing international pressure on both sides to avoid escalation.
6. **Title:** July 11: IDF says it killed 6 top members of Hamas naval commando forces in recent Gaza strikes
**Description:** A Times of Israel live update on military actions amid ceasefire discussions, including Netanyahu’s comments on negotiations.
**Date of Publication:** July 11, 2025
**Summary:** Amid stalled talks, Netanyahu expressed optimism for a 60-day ceasefire and hostage release deal, potentially starting soon, but conditioned on Hamas’s flexibility. The update noted ongoing military operations as a complicating factor, with experts warning that such actions could derail diplomacy. As of July 11, no final agreement was confirmed, underscoring the tension between negotiation and conflict.
7. **Title:** 2025 Gaza war ceasefire
**Description:** A Wikipedia page summarizing the history and current status of ceasefire efforts, based on recent edits and sources.
**Date of Publication:** July 14, 2025 (last updated)
**Summary:** The page details ongoing complications, including Egypt’s concerns over Israeli border presence and Hamas’s rejections of proposals in July 2025. It cites reports that Netanyahu has historically resisted deals, but recent negotiations in Doha show tentative progress toward a temporary truce. As of mid-July, the entry emphasizes that no ceasefire has been declared, with mediators still working on unresolved demands.
8. **Title:** Updates: Hamas sends ‘positive’ response on ceasefire, Israel kills 50
**Description:** An Al Jazeera live blog on Hamas’s response and related events in Gaza.
**Date of Publication:** July 4, 2025
**Summary:** Hamas communicated a positive stance on the ceasefire proposal to mediators, advocating for immediate talks to implement a 60-day pause and end the war. However, simultaneous Israeli military actions, including strikes that killed dozens, raised doubts about the feasibility of a deal in early July. Expert analysts in the blog suggested that sustained violence could undermine negotiation momentum.
9. **Title:** Hamas Says It Is Ready to Negotiate Truce Proposal
**Description:** A New York Times article on Hamas’s willingness to engage and the uncertainties around the proposal.
**Date of Publication:** July 4, 2025
**Summary:** Hamas indicated readiness to negotiate a 60-day truce with provisions for hostage exchanges and war-ending discussions, but clarity on changes to the plan remained unclear. US officials backed the framework, viewing it as a step toward de-escalation, though Israeli sources expressed reservations. As of July 4, this response fueled hopes for a July resolution but highlighted persistent gaps.
10. **Title:** Posts on X reflect mixed sentiment on ceasefire negotiations
**Description:** A synthesis of recent posts from X (formerly Twitter) discussing public and expert reactions to the talks.
**Date of Publication:** Various posts from July 3–13, 2025 (summarized as of July 16, 2025)
**Summary:** Posts from users, including news accounts and analysts, showed optimism about Hamas’s positive response to a 60-day deal but skepticism over Israel’s conditions, with some mentioning potential delays. Sentiment indicated growing public pressure for a truce, though experts cautioned that unverified claims on the platform could exaggerate progress. Overall, these posts suggest inconclusive momentum toward a declaration but are not reliable evidence on their own.
AskNews Deep Search Response:
As of July 16, 2025, negotiations remain highly fluid, with conflicting signals about the likelihood of a ceasefire. Below is a synthesis of recent developments (July 9–16, 2025) from authoritative sources.
1. **Mediation Momentum (Positive Indicators):**
– Egypt, Qatar, and the U.S. are leading diplomatic efforts to broker a ceasefire, with indirect talks ongoing in Doha. Israel has shown flexibility on control of the strategic *Mourag* crossing (critical for Hamas’ governance in Gaza) [1][5].
– A proposed 60-day ceasefire framework includes phased hostage releases, humanitarian aid access, and Israeli troop withdrawals from parts of Gaza. U.S. President Donald Trump has pledged support, stating, *”We are very close to an agreement”* [13][28].
– Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly signaled openness to *”middle ground solutions”* on prisoner exchanges and partial withdrawal [1][5].
2. **Key Obstacles (Negative Indicators):**
– **Withdrawal Disputes:** Hamas demands a complete Israeli withdrawal to pre-March 2023 lines and rejects Israeli proposals to retain control of 40% of Gaza (including Rafah and northern/eastern borders) [4][16][20]. Netanyahu insists on maintaining security control, calling Hamas’ demands *”surrender”* [2][6][26].
– **Humanitarian Aid:** Hamas opposes Israel’s demand to retain oversight of aid distribution via the *”Gaza Humanitarian Agency”* (criticized by the UN as selective) [2][17].
– **Permanent Ceasefire Guarantees:** Hamas seeks binding U.S./international assurances that Israel will not resume hostilities after the truce, which Netanyahu refuses to commit to [22][27][33].
3. **Humanitarian Crisis & Pressure Points:**
– Palestinian casualties: **57,680+ killed, 137,409+ injured** (as of July 16, per Gaza Health Ministry) [1][8][26].
– ~49 Israeli hostages remain in Gaza, with Netanyahu facing domestic pressure to secure their release [36][38].
4. **Recent Setbacks (July 13–16):**
– Talks stalled over Israel’s revised *”redeployment maps”* (not full withdrawal), which Hamas likened to *”Nazi camps”*.
– Aid-related airstrikes killed 30+ Palestinians on July 13, exacerbating distrust [16].
– Netanyahu’s coalition resists concessions, demanding Hamas’ disarmament as a precondition [20][29].
Anthropic Binary response:
### Key Information Assessment
My research assistants have provided detailed summaries of the current situation. Let me analyze the most relevant points:
1. **Current State of Negotiations (as of July 16, 2025)**:
– Indirect talks in Doha involving Hamas, Israel, and mediators (US, Qatar, Egypt)
– A 60-day ceasefire framework is being discussed that includes hostage releases, humanitarian aid, and partial Israeli troop withdrawals
– Israel has shown some flexibility by submitting a “third troop deployment map”
– Hamas offered to release 10 hostages on July 9th as a confidence-building measure
2. **Major Obstacles**:
– Withdrawal disputes: Hamas demands complete Israeli withdrawal; Israel insists on maintaining control of 40% of Gaza
– Disagreement over aid distribution mechanisms
– Hamas wants binding guarantees for a permanent ceasefire; Netanyahu refuses to commit
– Netanyahu’s coalition partners resist concessions
3. **Recent Developments (July 13-16)**:
– Talks stalled over Israel’s “redeployment maps”
– Aid-related airstrikes killed 30+ Palestinians on July 13th, increasing tensions
– US President Trump scheduled to meet Qatar’s PM on July 16th to discuss the ceasefire
### Time Constraint Analysis
With only 15 days remaining in July, any ceasefire declaration would need to happen relatively quickly. This is a tight timeline given the current impasses.
### Historical Precedent
Looking at historical Israel-Hamas ceasefires:
– Negotiations typically take weeks to months, especially when there are significant disagreements
– Previous ceasefires often required dramatic shifts in positions or external pressure
– The complexity of this conflict (hostage situation, Gaza governance, humanitarian crisis) makes rapid resolution difficult
### Forecast Timeline Analysis
– **Within 15 days (by July 31, 2025)**: Based on current evidence, the probability appears low. Major obstacles remain unresolved, and the tight timeline works against complex negotiations.
– **Within 45 days (by August 31, 2025)**: Significantly higher probability, as this would allow time to resolve contentious issues and implement the proposed 60-day framework.
– **Within 90 days (by October 2025)**: Even higher probability, as external pressures and humanitarian concerns could force compromise.
### Base Rate Considerations
The base rate for successful ceasefire declarations in similar conflicts with entrenched positions is low, particularly when negotiations face significant hurdles and tight timelines.
Gemini Binary response:
The question asks for the probability of a ceasefire being *declared* between Israel and Hamas in the month of July 2025. Today’s date is July 16, 2025, meaning the relevant timeframe is the next 15 days.
1. **Current State of Negotiations:** Negotiations are ongoing in Doha, mediated by the United States, Qatar, and Egypt. Reports indicate a US-backed proposal for a 60-day ceasefire, phased hostage releases, and partial Israeli troop withdrawals [Grok 1, Grok 2, Grok 3]. Hamas has given a “positive response” to this framework, signaling a willingness to engage [Grok 4, Grok 8, Grok 9]. Israel has also shown some flexibility, for example, by submitting a third troop deployment map and reportedly open to “middle ground solutions” on prisoner exchanges [RA1 1, RA2 1]. U.S. President Donald Trump has expressed optimism for a deal, stating, “We are very close to an agreement” [RA2 13, RA2 28, RA3].
2. **Key Obstacles:** Despite some positive indicators, significant and fundamental disagreements persist.
3. **Recent Setbacks and Mixed Signals:** While early July saw some optimism, more recent reports (July 13-16) indicate stalled talks.
4. **Timeframe and Historical Context:** The remaining time in July 2025 is very short (15 days). Reaching a declared ceasefire, even a temporary one, requires overcoming deep-seated and existential disagreements between the parties. Historically, such conflicts are protracted, and temporary ceasefires often require significant shifts in positions that have not yet fully materialized.
=== Reasoning ===
I need to determine the probability of a ceasefire being declared between Israel and Hamas in July 2025, considering we’re already on July 16th with just 15 days remaining in the month.
### Key Information Assessment
My research assistants have provided detailed summaries of the current situation. Let me analyze the most relevant points:
1. **Current State of Negotiations (as of July 16, 2025)**:
– Indirect talks in Doha involving Hamas, Israel, and mediators (US, Qatar, Egypt)
– A 60-day ceasefire framework is being discussed that includes hostage releases, humanitarian aid, and partial Israeli troop withdrawals
– Israel has shown some flexibility by submitting a “third troop deployment map”
– Hamas offered to release 10 hostages on July 9th as a confidence-building measure
2. **Major Obstacles**:
– Withdrawal disputes: Hamas demands complete Israeli withdrawal; Israel insists on maintaining control of 40% of Gaza
– Disagreement over aid distribution mechanisms
– Hamas wants binding guarantees for a permanent ceasefire; Netanyahu refuses to commit
– Netanyahu’s coalition partners resist concessions
3. **Recent Developments (July 13-16)**:
– Talks stalled over Israel’s “redeployment maps”
– Aid-related airstrikes killed 30+ Palestinians on July 13th, increasing tensions
– US President Trump scheduled to meet Qatar’s PM on July 16th to discuss the ceasefire
4. **Expert Assessments**:
– US envoy Steve Witkoff claims 3/4 of contentious issues are resolved
– Qatari mediators describe momentum as “greater than ever”
– Other analysts warn negotiations are near collapse due to “asymmetric power dynamics”
### Time Constraint Analysis
With only 15 days remaining in July, any ceasefire declaration would need to happen relatively quickly. This is a tight timeline given the current impasses.
### Historical Precedent
Looking at historical Israel-Hamas ceasefires:
– Negotiations typically take weeks to months, especially when there are significant disagreements
– Previous ceasefires often required dramatic shifts in positions or external pressure
– The complexity of this conflict (hostage situation, Gaza governance, humanitarian crisis) makes rapid resolution difficult
### Key Assumptions and Their Probabilities
1. **Assumption**: The current negotiation framework can bridge the gap between Israel and Hamas positions.
– Probability of being incorrect: 70%
– Impact: Critical – without a viable framework, no ceasefire can be declared
2. **Assumption**: External mediators (US, Qatar, Egypt) can apply sufficient pressure to forge a compromise.
– Probability of being incorrect: 55%
– Impact: High – mediators have historically been crucial in facilitating agreements
3. **Assumption**: Netanyahu’s government has genuine willingness to compromise on key issues like withdrawal.
– Probability of being incorrect: 65%
– Impact: Critical – political constraints may prevent necessary concessions
### Forecast Timeline Analysis
– **Within 15 days (by July 31, 2025)**: Based on current evidence, the probability appears low. Major obstacles remain unresolved, and the tight timeline works against complex negotiations.
– **Within 45 days (by August 31, 2025)**: Significantly higher probability, as this would allow time to resolve contentious issues and implement the proposed 60-day framework.
– **Within 90 days (by October 2025)**: Even higher probability, as external pressures and humanitarian concerns could force compromise.
### Base Rate Considerations
The base rate for successful ceasefire declarations in similar conflicts with entrenched positions is low, particularly when negotiations face significant hurdles and tight timelines.
### Final Analysis
Given the remaining obstacles (particularly regarding troop withdrawal and permanent guarantees), combined with the short timeline and historical precedent, I assess that a ceasefire declaration by July 31st is unlikely but not impossible. Recent positive signals from mediators and Hamas’s hostage release offer provide some basis for optimism, but fundamental disagreements remain unresolved.
The most likely scenario is continued negotiations extending into August, with potential incremental progress but no formal declaration in July. Given the complexity, I must avoid overconfidence in predicting a negative outcome.
Considering all factors, I estimate:
Probability: 25%
Full details of pgodzinai bot’s forecast here —>
Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy ’s bots —>
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/longform/2023/10/9/israel-hamas-war-in-maps-and-charts-live-tracker
