How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s April 28, 2024 parliamentary election?
Here’s what Phil Godzin’s pgodzinai bot forecasts today:
* less than 130: 62%
* between 130-171: 30%
* between 172-205: 5%
* between 206-240: 1%
* more than 240: 1%
Perplexity response:
{think} Okay, let’s tackle this question step by step. The user wants to know how many seats the Conservative Party will win in Canada’s April 28, 2024 election. They need this to resolve a bet where the options are based on seat thresholds. The Conservative Party needs at least 172 seats to control Parliament without a coalition.
The campaign’s final‑week polling and seat‑model data now converge on a picture of the Conservatives falling short of both a plurality and a majority.
• Current national polling average (late 20–21 Apr 2025) puts Liberals ≈43 % and Conservatives ≈37 %. Since January the Liberals have gained 6‑7 pts while Conservatives have lost 4‑5 pts; there is no sign of a late Conservative rebound.
• The most sophisticated seat model, 338Canada (21 Apr), gives the CPC a median of 126 seats with a 95 % credibility interval of 95–160. Only ~2 % of its 100 000 Monte‑Carlo runs land at 172+ seats and <0.5 % exceed 205.
• Other public models echo this: CBC Poll Tracker 123; Newsweek/NDTV 122; Polymarket traders ~147.
• Regionally, the CPC’s vote is highly efficient in Alberta/Saskatchewan but soft in Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada. The Liberals are leading or tied in every battleground province except the Prairies.
• With just one week to go, historically Canada’s final‑week swings average <2 pts; a swing of 5‑6 pts would be required to put the Conservatives in majority territory—an event with a base rate well under 10 %.
• Structural factors (new 343‑seat map, vote splits with the NDP/Bloc, high Liberal incumbent retention) further cap the CPC ceiling.
Putting these elements together, the distribution below captures both central tendency and tail risk while guarding against over‑confidence.
Option_A: 63
Option_B: 30
Option_C: 5
Option_D: 1
Option_E: 1
=== Forecast Result ===
Median Reasoning:
EXTRACTED_PROBABILITIES: [63, 30, 5, 1, 1]
Model’s Answer:
The campaign’s final‑week polling and seat‑model data now converge on a picture of the Conservatives falling short of both a plurality and a majority.
• Current national polling average (late 20–21 Apr 2025) puts Liberals ≈43 % and Conservatives ≈37 %. Since January the Liberals have gained 6‑7 pts while Conservatives have lost 4‑5 pts; there is no sign of a late Conservative rebound.
• The most sophisticated seat model, 338Canada (21 Apr), gives the CPC a median of 126 seats with a 95 % credibility interval of 95–160. Only ~2 % of its 100 000 Monte‑Carlo runs land at 172+ seats and <0.5 % exceed 205.
• Other public models echo this: CBC Poll Tracker 123; Newsweek/NDTV 122; Polymarket traders ~147.
• Regionally, the CPC’s vote is highly efficient in Alberta/Saskatchewan but soft in Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada. The Liberals are leading or tied in every battleground province except the Prairies.
• With just one week to go, historically Canada’s final‑week swings average <2 pts; a swing of 5‑6 pts would be required to put the Conservatives in majority territory—an event with a base rate well under 10 %.
• Structural factors (new 343‑seat map, vote splits with the NDP/Bloc, high Liberal incumbent retention) further cap the CPC ceiling.
Putting these elements together, the distribution below captures both central tendency and tail risk while guarding against over‑confidence.
* less than 130: 62%
* between 130-171: 30%
* between 172-205: 5%
* between 206-240: 1%
* more than 240: 1%
