Israel/Hamas Ceasefire? Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman’s forecast, June 18, 2025

Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of June 2025?

Read time: 10–12 minutes

Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts 45%. Here’s how it reached this answer:

Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: Israel Hamas ceasefire June 2025
News from various sources:

The extracted content primarily covers the tentative developments relating to a potential ceasefire between Israel and Hamas as of June 2025. Here’s a summary of the key points:

1. **Hamas’s Position**: Khalil al-Hayya, a lead negotiator for Hamas, expressed readiness to engage in new negotiations for a permanent ceasefire with Israel in Gaza, amidst continued hostilities. Hayya confirmed ongoing communications with mediators, highlighting the group’s objectives amid a worsening humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
2. **Mediation Efforts**: Talks appeared to have been facilitated by Qatar, Egypt, and the United States. U.S. President Donald Trump mentioned on May 30th that a truce, linked to a hostage exchange, was nearing an agreement. However, accusations between Israel and Hamas of derailing the proposal have arisen, including criticism against the Palestinian militants’ response to a U.S. envoy’s suggestions.
3. **Humanitarian Concerns**: The human cost of the conflict continues to escalate, with at least 37 casualties reported due to Israeli military actions, according to Gaza civil defense officials. The World Health Organization warned of collapsing healthcare systems in Gaza, with two key hospitals under immense strain due to displacement of populations.
4. **International Reactions**: Global voices, including Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and French President Emmanuel Macron, have ramped up calls for a ceasefire. France, alongside Saudi Arabia, plans to co-host a United Nations conference aimed at addressing the broader Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
5. **Local Developments**: The Israeli military has intensified operations in Gaza, while in Khan Younis, unearthing a tunnel revealed casualties, including that of Muhammad Sinwar, a key military leader of Hamas.
Overall, the situation in Gaza remains tense with a fragile ceasefire being the focus of international diplomatic efforts supported by humanitarian concerns and pressure. The potential for progress hinges on overcoming mutual distrust and securing assurances for a sustainable peace framework.

Fact-checking news summary:
Here is a detailed analysis of the specific facts stated in the summary, their validity, and their relevance to the question about the potential ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in June 2025:
1. **Hamas’s Position**: Khalil al-Hayya expressed readiness to negotiate a permanent ceasefire and confirmed ongoing mediation communications.
– **Correctness**: True, based on typical diplomatic practices, though should be cross-verified for confirmation.
– **Importance**: Important, as it shows willingness from a key party involved.
– **Relevance**: True, directly relates to the possibility of a ceasefire.
2. **Mediation Efforts**: Qatar, Egypt, and the USA are facilitating talks; Trump mentioned a nearing truce linked to a hostage exchange.
– **Correctness**: False, as Trump was not U.S. President in 2025; requires verification if he made such statements in a different capacity.
– **Importance**: Critical, as successful mediation is crucial to a ceasefire.
– **Relevance**: True, directly impacts ceasefire prospects.
3. **Accusations of Derailment**: Accusations continue between Israel and Hamas regarding derailing the ceasefire proposal.
– **Correctness**: True, as such dynamics are commonly reported.
– **Importance**: Important, since accusations can hinder peace efforts.
– **Relevance**: True, affects the likelihood of declaring a ceasefire.
4. **Humanitarian Concerns**: At least 37 casualties reported; WHO warns of healthcare collapse in Gaza.
– **Correctness**: Likely true, though specific numbers should be corroborated.
– **Importance**: Important, as humanitarian concerns often catalyze ceasefire negotiations.
– **Relevance**: True, humanitarian crisis pressures parties towards a ceasefire.
5. **International Reactions**: Calls for a ceasefire by Lula da Silva and Macron; France and Saudi Arabia plan a U.N. conference.
– **Correctness**: True for ongoing international engagements, but specific details should be validated.
– **Importance**: Important, as international pressure can propel ceasefire talks.
– **Relevance**: True, international actions are relevant to ceasefire outcomes.
6. **Local Developments**: Intensified Israeli operations revealed casualties, including Hamas leader Muhammad Sinwar.
– **Correctness**: Possibly true, requires validation of the specific incident.
– **Importance**: Important, as local military actions impact ceasefire prospects.
– **Relevance**: True, as ongoing conflict influences ceasefire likelihood.
**Summary**: Overall, several valid and relevant facts are highlighted which show the complex dynamics influencing the potential for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in June 2025. The accuracy of certain details, such as Trump’s involvement, should be verified for a comprehensive assessment.

Fact-checked summary:
In assessing the potential for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in June 2025, several true and relevant facts provide insight into the situation. Khalil al-Hayya of Hamas has expressed readiness to negotiate a permanent ceasefire, emphasizing the willingness of a key party involved, which is important for peace efforts. Accusations continue between Israel and Hamas regarding the derailment of ceasefire proposals, an important factor that can hinder progress. Humanitarian concerns are pressing, with casualties reported and the World Health Organization warning of a healthcare collapse in Gaza, which often catalyzes ceasefire negotiations. Internationally, leaders like Lula da Silva and Macron have called for a ceasefire, and France and Saudi Arabia are planning a U.N. conference, illustrating the significant role international pressure plays in propelling ceasefire discussions. These elements combined portray a complex but potentially conducive environment for ceasefire talks.

OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.35
The question difficulty is rated 7 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
0.40.30.50.6
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
Assuming historical factors weigh: Previous Israel-Hamas ceasefires: 0.4, International mediation success: 0.3, Humanitarian pressure leading to ceasefires: 0.5, Current international diplomatic pressure: 0.6. Bayesian probability = [0.35*0.4 + 0.3*0.3 + 0.5*0.5 + 0.6*0.6] / sum of weights. = 0.41
Bayesian base rate: 0.41
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 12

The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate was calculated by considering the frequency of ceasefires in conflicts involving non-state actors like Hamas and international mediation’s historical success. Humanitarian crises often encourage talks, thus raising the base likelihood.

Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Additional information on internal political dynamics within Israel and Hamas could refine the forecast. Understanding economic factors influencing both parties and detailed intelligence on military readiness could provide further insights.

Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
The situation remains complex due to deep-seated animosities and frequent ceasefire violations. Even with international pressure, unexpected escalations could derail talks entirely, or unforeseen developments could rapidly shift public opinion and policy.

The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Hamas expresses a sincere commitment to a ceasefire, which currently seems likely given Khalil al-Hayya’s readiness to negotiate.
– Israel agrees to terms that allow for a ceasefire, currently moderately likely as accusations of derailment suggest reluctance.
– International actors such as France and Saudi Arabia successfully mediate talks, currently moderately likely due to the planned U.N. conference.
– Escalating humanitarian issues pressure both parties to agree, currently highly likely given warnings from the WHO.

Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 7)

Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.65 – confidence: 5)

Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.45 – confidence: 6)

Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.45
Base rate: 0.35 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.21
MAPD: 0.33333333333333
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.43
Reverse Mellers: 0.47
Theory of Mind: 0.5 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.28
Close Type: B (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>

Model value: 0.45
On June 18, 2025, there are significant efforts to declare a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, with only 12 days remaining in the month. While the base probability of a ceasefire under normal circumstances is relatively low at 35%, the involvement of key international players like France, Saudi Arabia, and efforts from the U.N., along with Hamas’s openness to negotiations and pressing humanitarian concerns, slightly elevate this probability. However, the extremely limited timeframe and the complex nature of ceasefire negotiations—requiring detailed agreements on various fronts—pose a substantial challenge. The historical context of protracted negotiations, mutual distrust, and the volatile nature of the conflict introduce significant uncertainty. Rapid resolution is possible if undisclosed negotiations have progressed behind the scenes or if immediate external pressures or escalations force a quick agreement, but these are not guaranteed outcomes.
Runtime: 138 seconds.