How many state-based conflict deaths (total of all civilian and combat deaths, including both Ukrainian and Russian combatants) will be reported by ACLED in Ukraine in June, 2025?
Here’s what Phil’s pgodzinai bot predicts today:
Less than 500: 8%
Between 500 and 1000: 22%
Between 1000 and 1500: 35%
Between 1500 and 2000: 25%
Greater than 2000: 10%
Perplexity response:
{think}
Okay, let’s tackle this question step by step. The user wants to know how many state-based conflict deaths ACLED will report in Ukraine for June 2025. The possible options are ranges from less than 500 up to over 2000. The background mentions the conflict has been ongoing since February 2022, with both sides suffering heavy casualties.
First, I need to check the provided search results for any relevant data on recent ACLED reports. The first search result [1] from acleddata.com is a Ukraine Conflict Monitor updated on 31 January 2025. It mentions that the monitor provides weekly situation updates every Wednesday, covering events from Saturday to Friday of the preceding week. However, the available data in the snippet is from January 18-24, 2025, which is older. The more recent dates in the search results are from June 3, 2025, but those are in sources [2] and [3], which discuss widespread political violence globally, including liberal democracies, not specifically Ukraine. Source [5] from Statista, dated May 30, 2025, mentions Zelenskyy stating 46,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed since 2022, but that’s a cumulative figure and not recent monthly data.
Since the user is asking about June 2025, which is current or future relative to the provided data (the latest from June 3, 2025 is a general report on political violence, not Ukraine-specific), the search results don’t have June 2025 data. ACLED’s Ukraine monitor updates weekly, but the latest data we have is up to May 2025 in source [1], which doesn’t include June. The May 28, 2025 update in [1] reported 1,475 political violence events with a 5% increase, but the exact death toll for that week isn’t specified beyond 93 civilian targeting incidents. Source [5] gives a total of 46,000 Ukrainian military deaths since 2022, but that’s not monthly data.
Without specific June 2025 data, we have to infer based on historical trends. The user’s options are about the number of deaths in June. Given that the conflict has been ongoing with significant casualties, but the exact June numbers aren’t available, we need to look at recent months for patterns. The May 28 report notes a 5% increase in political violence events, but without knowing how many deaths that translates to, it’s tricky. However, source [2] and [3] mention over 200,000 political violence incidents globally last year (presumably 2024), but Ukraine’s share isn’t specified.
Additionally, the resolution criteria point to ACLED’s Ukraine Conflict Monitor as the authoritative source. Since the latest data in the provided search results doesn’t cover June, the assistant can’t cite exact numbers for June 2025. Therefore, the answer should state that there’s insufficient data to determine the exact number, but provide context from recent months and historical trends. The lack of specific June data means the answer must rely on available information, noting that while recent weeks show increased violence, exact death counts aren’t provided in the sources. The user will need to consult ACLED’s updated reports as they are released.
Here’s an analysis of available data from ACLED and related sources to inform the forecast for Ukraine’s state-based conflict deaths in June 2025, based on the provided search results:
—
### **Key Data Points from ACLED and Recent Sources**
**1. Ukraine Conflict Monitor (ACLED, updated 31 Jan 2025)**
– **Weekly Updates**: Provides near real-time data, released every Wednesday, covering events from the preceding Saturday to Friday[1].
– **Recent Trends (May 2025)**:
– 1,475 political violence events reported in one week (17–23 May 2025), a 5% increase over the previous week[1].
– 93 incidents targeting civilians, including shelling and drone strikes, but no death toll specified[1].
– **Geographic Activity**: Russian advances in Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, with missile/drone strikes in Kyiv, Lviv, and Khmelnytskyi[1].
**2. Global Political Violence Trends (247wallst, 3 Jun 2025)**
– Over 200,000 political violence incidents worldwide in the past year, with Ukraine among conflict zones[2][3].
– **Liberal Democracies**: Rising political violence in stable countries, but no June 2025 data for Ukraine[2][3].
**3. Cumulative Ukrainian Military Casualties (Statista, 30 May 2025)**
– Zelenskyy cited ≥46,000 Ukrainian military deaths since 2022, but this is a cumulative figure, not monthly data[5].
—
### **Critical Analysis for June 2025 Forecast**
#### **Historical Context**
– **Daily Rates**: If extrapolating from cumulative figures (e.g., 46,000 deaths over ~3.5 years ≈ ~13,000 annual, ~1,100 monthly), but this ignores escalations in 2023–2024.
– **Recent Escalation**: May 2025 saw a 5% weekly increase in violence events[1], suggesting heightened intensity.
#### **Limitations**
– **Data Gaps**: No June 2025 data in the provided sources. ACLED’s Ukraine monitor releases weekly updates, but the latest available is May 2025[1].
– **Death Toll Uncertainty**: ACLED’s weekly reports focus on event counts (e.g., strikes, shelling) rather than direct death tallies. Civilian and combatant deaths are often reported separately, but not aggregated monthly.
—
### **Resolution Considerations**
1. **Recent Violence Trends**: May 2025 showed increased political violence events (1,475 weekly)[1], which could correlate with higher casualties.
2. **Geopolitical Intensity**: Continued advances in Donetsk and Kharkiv[1], paired with missile/drone strikes in population centers (Kyiv, Lviv)[1], suggest sustained high-risk environments.
3. **Comparative Baselines**:
– **Lower End**: <500 deaths would imply a drastic (unreported) de-escalation.
– **Upper End**: >2,000 deaths would require a significant escalation beyond recent trends.
—
### **Recommendation for Forecasting**
Given the lack of June 2025-specific data, the answer leans on:
– **Recent weekly activity**: ~1,475 events (May 2025), with a 5% increase[1].
– **Historical estimates**: Cumulative Ukrainian military deaths (~13,000 annual) but excluding Russian combatants.
Without explicit June data, the most reasonable range aligns with sustained but not exponentially escalating conflict, suggesting **between 1,000 and 1,500 deaths**. This assumes continued intensity but avoids assuming drastic spikes not indicated in recent reports.
Grok response:
Below is a detailed response to your query as a research assistant. The superforecaster’s question focuses on the number of state-based conflict deaths (total of civilian and combat deaths, including both Ukrainian and Russian combatants) reported by ACLED in Ukraine for June 2025. As per my role, I will not produce any forecasts or predictions. Instead, I will provide a comprehensive rundown of relevant news, statistics, and data from recent and authoritative sources to give context. This includes trends in conflict-related deaths based on available data up to the current date (June 3, 2025), emphasizing recent updates from ACLED and other credible outlets.
First, I reviewed the query’s focus on ACLED as the authoritative source for resolution (as specified in the resolution criteria). I accessed the ACLED Ukraine Conflict Monitor (https://acleddata.com/ukraine-conflict-monitor/) to gather the latest available data. As of June 3, 2025, ACLED’s platform provides near real-time updates, including weekly situation reports and aggregated data on political violence events, such as state-based conflict deaths. Their data includes verified incidents of fatalities from battles, explosions, and violence against civilians. While full data for June 2025 is not yet complete (as the month is ongoing), I pulled the most recent figures and historical trends from their reports to highlight patterns. For instance, their latest update (as of May 31, 2025) covers the period up to May 23, 2025, showing an escalation in events and fatalities, which could inform context for early June.
To structure this response, I begin with a list of 10 citations from a variety of recent sources, including ACLED, news outlets, statistical databases, and social media sentiment (e.g., posts on X). These are prioritized for recency, with sources from late May 2025 and early June 2025. Each citation includes the title, a brief description, the date of publication, and a three-sentence summary of the relevant content.
### List of 10 Citations
1. **Title:** Ukraine Conflict Monitor
**Description:** ACLED’s dedicated platform for real-time data on the Ukraine war, including an interactive map and weekly updates on violence events.
**Date of Publication:** May 21, 2025 (latest update accessed on June 3, 2025).
**Three-Sentence Summary:** This source tracks state-based conflict events in Ukraine, reporting on battles, explosions, and civilian targeting with verified fatality counts. It highlights an increase in political violence incidents in recent weeks, such as 1,475 events between May 17–23, 2025, including 39 reported civilian fatalities. The data underscores ongoing trends in the Donetsk region and other hotspots, providing a baseline for monitoring June 2025 developments.
2. **Title:** Casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War
**Description:** Wikipedia page aggregating estimates of military and civilian casualties from various official and unofficial sources.
**Date of Publication:** June 2, 2025 (last edited).
**Three-Sentence Summary:** The page compiles cumulative casualty figures, estimating up to 1,000,000 total casualties (military and civilian) by mid-2024, with updates noting continued losses in 2025. It details challenges in verification due to underreporting but cites sources like OHCHR for over 13,000 civilian deaths as of April 2025. This provides historical context for the conflict’s intensity, though it lacks specific monthly breakdowns for June 2025.
3. **Title:** Ukraine Civilian War Casualties
**Description:** Statista report on verified civilian deaths and injuries in the Ukraine conflict, based on OHCHR data.
**Date of Publication:** May 23, 2025.
**Three-Sentence Summary:** The report verifies over 12,100 civilian deaths as of October 2024, with recent updates indicating a rise in casualties due to intensified fighting. It breaks down monthly trends, noting high fatality rates in previous springs and summers, such as 4,312 civilian deaths in March 2022. This data highlights seasonal escalations in conflict zones, potentially relevant for early June 2025 patterns.
4. **Title:** Russia’s Casualties in Its War Against Ukraine Near 1 Million Troops, Kyiv Says
**Description:** Euronews article reporting on Ukrainian General Staff estimates of Russian losses amid ongoing offensives.
**Date of Publication:** May 26, 2025.
**Three-Sentence Summary:** The article cites Ukrainian sources claiming nearly 1 million Russian casualties (killed and wounded) since February 2022, with recent increases linked to a summer offensive. It references daily loss estimates of 1,000–1,200 Russian personnel, contributing to total state-based conflict deaths. Expert opinions from military analysts suggest this reflects broader trends of escalating violence in 2025, including in Donetsk.
5. **Title:** US, Europe Lift ‘Range Restrictions’ on Ukraine Missiles: Why It Matters
**Description:** Al Jazeera news article on international developments affecting the Ukraine conflict.
**Date of Publication:** May 27, 2025.
**Three-Sentence Summary:** The piece discusses how lifting restrictions could lead to increased military engagements, potentially raising casualty figures in border regions. It references ongoing Russian assaults and Ukrainian counteroperations, with implications for civilian and combat deaths. Analysts warn of heightened risks in the coming weeks, based on historical data showing spikes in fatalities during escalated phases.
6. **Title:** Ukraine War Situation Update 3–9 May 2025
**Description:** ACLED’s weekly report on political violence events in Ukraine, focusing on regional hotspots.
**Date of Publication:** May 21, 2025.
**Three-Sentence Summary:** The update reports on 93 civilian targeting incidents and rising state-based conflict deaths in early May 2025, particularly in Donetsk and Kharkiv. It notes a 15% increase in events compared to previous weeks, with fatalities linked to Russian assaults. This provides recent data trends that could indicate continuity into June 2025.
7. **Title:** Ukraine-Russia War: List of Key Events, Day 1,181
**Description:** Al Jazeera summary of daily developments in the conflict, including casualty reports.
**Date of Publication:** May 20, 2025.
**Three-Sentence Summary:** The article outlines key events from mid-May 2025, including Russian missile strikes and Ukrainian defenses resulting in reported fatalities. It cites estimates of dozens of deaths from battles, emphasizing the cumulative toll on both sides. This context highlights expert concerns about sustained high-intensity fighting into summer months.
8. **Title:** Russia Has Started Losing the War in Ukraine
**Description:** Foreign Policy analysis on strategic shifts and their impact on casualties.
**Date of Publication:** May 19, 2025.
**Three-Sentence Summary:** The article analyzes recent battlefield losses, estimating significant Russian fatalities in the first half of 2025 due to Ukrainian advances. It references data from sources like ACLED to show increasing state-based conflict deaths amid counteroffensives. Experts argue this could lead to further escalations, based on trends from prior months.
9. **Title:** Ukraine Civilian War Casualties Monthly
**Description:** Statista dataset tracking monthly civilian casualties in the Ukraine conflict.
**Date of Publication:** May 23, 2025.
**Three-Sentence Summary:** The dataset reports fluctuating monthly fatalities, with peaks in spring and summer due to offensive operations, such as 4,312 deaths in March 2022. Recent data up to April 2025 shows continued high numbers, averaging hundreds per month in conflict zones. This historical pattern underscores potential for elevated deaths in June 2025 based on seasonal trends.
10. **Title:** Posts on X Reflecting Conflict Sentiment
**Description:** Aggregated posts from X (formerly Twitter) discussing casualty estimates, based on accounts like ACLED and official sources.
**Date of Publication:** May 31, 2025 (most recent post reviewed).
**Three-Sentence Summary:** Posts from accounts tracking the conflict report on escalating violence, with one citing 39 civilian fatalities in the week of May 17–23, 2025. They reflect broader sentiment of increasing state-based deaths, though these are user-generated and not verified. While inconclusive as evidence, they echo expert opinions from ACLED on rising incidents in early summer.
### Detailed Rundown of Relevant News and Data
Based on the citations above, recent updates indicate a pattern of escalating state-based conflict deaths in Ukraine, driven by ongoing Russian offensives and Ukrainian counteroperations, particularly in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions. ACLED’s data, as accessed on June 3, 2025, shows 39 reported civilian fatalities for the week of May 17–23, 2025, with a total of 1,475 political violence events in that period—a 5% increase from the previous week. This suggests a upward trend in fatalities, with historical data from Statista and Wikipedia showing monthly averages of several hundred deaths during similar periods in past years (e.g., over 4,000 in March 2022). For context, ACLED’s Ukraine Conflict Monitor reports that violence often intensifies in late spring and summer due to weather conditions favoring operations, as seen in May 2025 updates.
Key statistics from authoritative sources include:
– **Current numbers as of June 3, 2025:** ACLED’s latest data (from their May 31, 2025, update) reports 93 civilian targeting incidents and 39 fatalities for the most recent full week available (May 17–23), but does not yet have comprehensive figures for June. OHCHR-verified totals from Statista indicate over 13,000 civilian deaths since 2022, with recent estimates suggesting hundreds more in early 2025.
– **Historical trends:** Over the past year, ACLED and Statista data show seasonal fluctuations, with higher death tolls in Q2 (e.g., April–June) due to increased military activity. For instance, Euronews and Al Jazeera articles highlight Russian losses exceeding 1 million cumulatively, with daily estimates of 1,000–1,200 casualties, though these are not month-specific.
– **Recent updates indicating movement:** News from Al Jazeera and Euronews (late May 2025) points to decisions like the US lifting missile restrictions, which could contribute to higher fatalities in ongoing battles. Expert opinions, such as those in Foreign Policy, suggest this might exacerbate trends seen in ACLED’s reports, with analysts from ACLED emphasizing the Donetsk region’s volatility.
This context from diverse sources—ACLED for primary data, Statista for statistics, and news outlets for expert analysis—provides a foundation for understanding potential patterns without speculating on outcomes. If ACLED releases further updates for June, they would be the definitive source for resolution.
GPT News Summary:
As of June 3, 2025, the conflict in Ukraine remains intense, with significant casualties reported on both sides. Here’s a summary of recent developments relevant to estimating the number of state-based conflict deaths in June 2025:
1. **Russian Casualties**:
– According to multiple sources, Russia is nearing its millionth casualty in Ukraine, with current trends indicating approximately 1,000 Russian soldiers killed or wounded per day ([The Economist, June 2, 2025](https://www.economist.com/international/2025/06/02/putins-sickening-statistic-1m-russian-casualties-in-ukraine); [Infobae, June 3, 2025] (https://www.infobae.com/economist/2025/06/03/la-alarmante-estadistica-de-vladimir-putin-al-menos-un-millon-de-soldados-rusos-caidos-en-ucrania/)).
2. **Ukrainian Casualties and Attacks**:
– Ukrainian sources report heavy Russian military losses, with approximately 990,800 Russian soldiers reportedly lost since the conflict began. In recent updates, daily Russian losses have been reported at 1,100 to 1,230 soldiers ([n-tv.de, June 2, 2025](https://www.n-tv.de/politik/07-38-Kiew-veroeffentlicht-Zahlen-zu-russischen-Verlusten–article23143824.html); [DeepState, June 2, 2025] (https://korrespondent.net/ukraine/4786777-DeepState-rossyia-usylyla-shturmovye-deistvyia)).
3. **Civilian Casualties**:
– The Donetsk People’s Republic reports 5,354 civilian deaths since February 2022 due to Ukrainian projectile fire ([1prime.ru, June 2, 2025] (https://1prime.ru/20250602/dnr-858144785.html)).
4. **Ongoing Combat and Escalation**:
– The Ukrainian Secret Service reports continued attacks on key infrastructure, such as the Crimean Bridge, and deliberate targeting of civilians, notably in Sumy, where a recent attack killed at least three people and injured 16 others ([n-tv.de, June 2, 2025] (https://www.n-tv.de/politik/14-48-Selenskyj-Angriff-auf-Sumy-war-vorsaetzlicher-Angriff-auf-Zivilisten–article23143824.html)).
– Reports indicate increased Russian assault activities, with substantial combat actions in regions like Sumy Oblast ([DeepState, June 2, 2025] (https://korrespondent.net/ukraine/4786777-DeepState-rossyia-usylyla-shturmovye-deistvyia)).
5. **Potential Diplomatic Developments**:
– In a geopolitical context, there is mention of potential negotiations involving Ukraine, Russia, and international leaders to discuss conflict resolution, although no concrete outcomes have been reported ([n-tv.de, June 2, 2025] (https://www.n-tv.de/politik/11-19-Munz-zu-Rekordzahl-an-Strafverfahren-Fast-alle-in-Russland-halten-den-Mund–article23143824.html)).
Given this information, as June progresses, one could anticipate continued high levels of conflict-related fatalities, particularly with the current trend of daily losses. This could significantly impact the number reported by ACLED for June 2025.
Extracted resolution criteria links:
[‘https://acleddata.com/ukraine-conflict-monitor/‘]
Anthropic response:
# Analysis of State-Based Conflict Deaths in Ukraine for June 2025
As an expert superforecaster, I need to carefully evaluate the available data and trends to predict the number of state-based conflict deaths that ACLED will report for Ukraine in June 2025. This requires examining recent conflict intensity, seasonal patterns, and current trajectories while accounting for uncertainty.
## Current Conflict Intensity and Recent Trends
According to the research assistants, recent ACLED data shows high levels of ongoing violence. As of late May 2025, ACLED reported 1,475 political violence events in Ukraine for the week of May 17-23, 2025, representing a 5% increase over the previous week. This included 93 incidents targeting civilians, though specific death counts aren’t provided for all events.
The research indicates that daily casualty rates remain significant. Multiple sources suggest Russian forces are experiencing approximately 1,000-1,200 casualties (killed and wounded) per day. While these figures include both fatalities and injuries, they suggest the conflict remains highly active. Ukrainian casualties aren’t specified at the same level of detail, but the conflict clearly continues with significant intensity.
## Historical Patterns and Seasonal Factors
Historical data shows that spring and summer months often see increased military activity in Ukraine due to improved weather conditions, which can lead to higher casualty rates. June falls within this period of typically elevated conflict intensity.
Looking at baseline conflict levels, the cumulative Ukrainian military deaths since 2022 (approximately 46,000 according to Zelenskyy’s statement from May 30, 2025) suggest an average of roughly 1,100 Ukrainian military deaths per month over the entire conflict. However, this is an average over a long period with varying intensity, and doesn’t include Russian combatant deaths or civilian casualties.
## Geographic Focus of Current Fighting
The research assistants note ongoing Russian advances in Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, with missile and drone strikes continuing in other areas including Kyiv, Lviv, and Khmelnytskyi. The continued combat operations in multiple regions suggest that conflict deaths will remain substantial.
## Forecasting the June 2025 Figure
Given that today is June 3rd and the resolution date is June 15th, we’re forecasting a number that will capture deaths for a portion of June 2025 (likely the first week or two, depending on ACLED’s reporting schedule). This short time horizon limits the likelihood of dramatic changes from current patterns.
The most relevant data points for our forecast are:
1. The recent weekly political violence events (1,475) with a 5% increase trend
2. Ongoing daily casualty rates estimated at 1,000-1,200 Russian casualties per day (though this includes wounded)
3. Historical patterns suggesting June is typically an active combat month
4. The current geographic spread of the conflict across multiple regions
If we consider that:
– The actual death count is a subset of total casualties
– Deaths include both Ukrainian and Russian combatants plus civilians
– ACLED’s methodology requires verification, which may result in some lag or underreporting
– The time period will likely cover 1-2 weeks of June by the resolution date
Looking at all these factors, the most likely range appears to be between 1,000 and 2,000 deaths, with the highest probability in the 1,000-1,500 range. This aligns with the current intensity of the conflict and recent reporting patterns.
However, I must account for uncertainty given several factors:
1. We don’t have precise June 2025 data yet
2. The exact methodology and timing of ACLED’s reporting could affect the final count
3. There’s always potential for sudden escalation or de-escalation
GPT Multiple Choice JSON response:
The figure ACLED will eventually publish for June 2025 will cover the whole month, but we are only three days into it, so the forecast must lean mainly on base rates from earlier months and years. ACLED’s fatality coding for Ukraine has been markedly lower than official loss claims, typically averaging around 1 000–1 600 deaths per month since the spring of 2022. Even the heaviest recorded months have rarely topped 1 800, while quiet periods seldom fall below 600–700. Nothing in the latest weekly situation updates (≈1 500 violence events, 39 civilian deaths in one week, no large‐scale mass‐casualty events) suggests a break-out escalation large enough to lift ACLED’s monthly fatality total above about 2 000. Likewise, a sudden collapse in fighting that would push the toll below 500 would require a dramatic and rapid cease-fire, for which there is no sign. Hence the central mass of probability sits in the 1 000–1 500 band, with sizeable weight also on 1 500–2 000 and 500–1 000. Extreme outcomes (<500 or >2 000) remain possible but distinctly less likely.
Anthropic response:
# Analysis of Expected State-Based Conflict Deaths in Ukraine for June 2025
## Interpreting Available Data
Based on the research assistants’ reports, we have several data points that provide context for forecasting June 2025 state-based conflict deaths in Ukraine:
1. **Recent Conflict Intensity**: ACLED reported 1,475 political violence events in a single week in May 2025, showing a 5% increase over the previous week. This indicates the conflict remains active and potentially intensifying.
2. **Daily Casualty Estimates**: Recent sources indicate approximately 1,000-1,230 Russian soldiers are being killed or wounded daily, with Ukrainian forces likely experiencing casualties as well, though at different rates.
3. **Civilian Targeting**: 93 incidents targeting civilians were reported in a single week in May 2025, including shelling and drone strikes, contributing to the overall death toll.
4. **Geographical Focus**: Russian advances continue in Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, with missile/drone strikes reported in Kyiv, Lviv, and other areas, indicating widespread combat operations.
5. **Historical Context**: Over 46,000 Ukrainian military deaths have occurred since 2022, suggesting a long-term average of roughly 1,100 Ukrainian military deaths per month, though this varies significantly with the intensity of fighting.
## Analyzing Seasonality and Current Trends
Historical data suggests that spring and summer months often see increased military activity in Ukraine due to favorable weather conditions. With June 2025 being a summer month, and given the 5% weekly increase in violence observed in May 2025, there’s reason to believe that elevated conflict levels will persist.
The reports of ongoing Russian advances in key regions and continued missile strikes throughout Ukraine indicate that the conflict remains in an active phase rather than moving toward de-escalation. This suggests that casualty figures are more likely to remain consistent with recent months or potentially increase rather than substantially decrease.
## Timeframe Considerations
The forecast covers only the month of June 2025, and the resolution date is June 15, 2025. This means we’re forecasting a relatively short period (the first two weeks of June), during which significant changes in the conflict’s intensity are less likely than over longer periods. The current trajectory and intensity level observed in late May 2025 are therefore strong predictors for early June.
## Base Rate Analysis
Using the information available, we can establish approximate base rates:
1. If Russian forces are experiencing 1,000-1,230 casualties daily (killed and wounded), and assuming a typical ratio of 1:3 for killed to wounded, this suggests approximately 250-300 Russian combat deaths daily.
2. Ukrainian military casualties are less clearly reported in the recent data, but historical patterns suggest they may be experiencing similar or somewhat lower daily death rates.
3. Civilian casualties are reported separately, with 39 civilian fatalities noted in one week in May 2025.
Aggregating these components for a monthly total, and accounting for both sides’ military deaths plus civilian casualties, a reasonable baseline estimate would be:
– Russian military deaths: ~7,500-9,000 monthly
– Ukrainian military deaths: ~5,000-7,500 monthly
– Civilian deaths: ~150-200 monthly
However, ACLED’s methodology for counting and attributing deaths may differ from raw casualty reports, and their figures often represent confirmed deaths, which can be significantly lower than actual totals due to verification challenges.
## Uncertainty Factors
Several factors introduce uncertainty into this forecast:
1. **Reporting Delays**: ACLED reports may lag behind real-time events, particularly for remote or contested areas.
2. **Verification Challenges**: Death counts, especially for military personnel, are often contested by opposing sides and difficult to verify independently.
3. **Potential Escalation**: The lifting of missile restrictions mentioned in research could lead to sudden escalation and higher casualty rates than the current baseline.
4. **Diplomatic Developments**: Potential negotiations mentioned could, though unlikely in the short term, affect conflict intensity.
## Range Analysis for June 2025
Considering all these factors, I’ll analyze each potential outcome:
**Less than 500 deaths**: This would represent a dramatic and sudden de-escalation from current conflict levels. Given the reported 39 civilian deaths in a single week in May and ongoing military operations with significant daily casualties, this outcome appears highly unlikely unless there’s an immediate ceasefire or major diplomatic breakthrough, which isn’t indicated in any recent reports.
**Between 500 and 1000 deaths**: This range would also represent a substantial reduction from current intensity levels. While possible if there were localized ceasefires or temporary lulls in fighting, the reported escalation in May 2025 and seasonal patterns make this scenario unlikely.
**Between 1000 and 1500 deaths**: This range aligns with moderate conflict intensity and would be consistent with some reduction from the levels reported in May 2025. This could occur if the conflict maintains its current intensity in some regions while seeing temporary de-escalation in others.
**Between 1500 and 2000 deaths**: This range represents continuation of the high-intensity conflict indicated by May 2025 reports. Given the 5% weekly increase in violence events observed in May and the continued Russian advances in key regions, this appears to be a plausible outcome.
**Greater than 2000 deaths**: This would represent further escalation beyond May 2025 levels. Given the reports of lifting missile restrictions and increased Russian assault activities, this scenario is possible, especially if the 5% weekly increase in violence continues or accelerates.
## Final Assessment
Taking all factors into account, including the reported escalation in May 2025, seasonal patterns, and the short forecast timeframe, the most likely outcomes appear to be in the middle-to-upper ranges. The “Between 1500 and 2000” range aligns most closely with continuation of recently reported conflict intensity, while allowing for some variation in reporting and verification.
I need to account for uncertainty while avoiding overconfidence, particularly given the inherent unpredictability of conflict dynamics and potential rapid changes. While the data points toward continued high-intensity conflict, I should distribute probability across multiple plausible outcomes.
Gemini Multiple Choice response:
The question asks for the number of state-based conflict deaths (total of all civilian and combat deaths, including both Ukrainian and Russian combatants) that will be reported by ACLED for Ukraine in June 2025. Today’s date is June 3, 2025, and the resolution date is June 15, 2025. This implies a forecast for the full month of June 2025, with the prediction submitted by June 15. It’s important to note that ACLED typically releases weekly updates, and a final consolidated figure for June 2025 would likely not be available by June 15. However, the forecast must be made based on the premise that the question will ultimately be resolved according to the stated criteria for the full month of June.
To make an accurate forecast, it is crucial to understand what ACLED reports for total conflict deaths, as their verification methodology can lead to figures that differ from other sources (e.g., military claims). My research indicates that ACLED is often more conservative due to strict verification criteria.
The most direct and relevant piece of information regarding ACLED’s total conflict death reporting for Ukraine comes from a December 2024 report. This source, attributing figures to the ACLED project, states that “Ukraine, too, has endured its bloodiest chapter, with 67,000 deaths recorded on both sides of the conflict” in 2024. This figure represents total deaths (civilian and combatant, both sides) attributed to the conflict.
If we average this over 12 months, the monthly average for 2024 is approximately 67,000 / 12 = 5,583 deaths per month. This figure provides a strong baseline for what ACLED reports for total conflict deaths in Ukraine.
Now, let’s consider recent trends for June 2025:
* ACLED’s Ukraine Conflict Monitor (as of May 21, 2025, covering May 17–23) reported 1,475 political violence events with a 5% increase over the previous week [Research Assistant 1, 3]. While this is an event count, an increase in events often correlates with increased casualties.
* The UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (OHCHR) reported a significant rise in civilian casualties in the months leading up to June 2025. Specifically, April 2025 saw 209 civilian deaths, which was 23% higher than March 2025 (164 killed) and 84% higher than April 2024. This indicates an escalating trend in civilian casualties, even though these are only a part of the total state-based conflict deaths.
* General reporting from research assistants suggests continued intense combat, with daily combatant casualties (killed or wounded) for Russian forces estimated in the range of 1,000-1,200 per day [Research Assistant 2, 3]. While these are not ACLED-verified “killed” numbers, they point to a high level of ongoing military activity.
Considering the 2024 monthly average of approximately 5,583 deaths reported by ACLED, and the ongoing high intensity of the conflict with recent increases in reported civilian casualties, it is highly probable that the number of state-based conflict deaths for June 2025 will be similar to or higher than this average.Given that the 2024 monthly average from ACLED is 5,583, the most fitting category is “Greater than 2000.” There is no evidence from the provided data to suggest a significant de-escalation that would dramatically reduce the monthly death toll below this historical average for total conflict deaths. While specific daily or weekly civilian death counts might appear lower in some reports, the question specifically asks for “total of all civilian and combat deaths,” which the 2024 ACLED aggregate addresses.
Therefore, the vast majority of probability should be placed on the “Greater than 2000” option.
Model’s Answer:
# Analysis of State-Based Conflict Deaths in Ukraine for June 2025
## Evaluating Available Data and Historical Trends
The question asks for a forecast of state-based conflict deaths in Ukraine for June 2025, as will be reported by ACLED. This requires careful analysis of recent trends, historical patterns, and current conflict dynamics.
Based on the research assistants’ information, we have several key data points to consider:
1. **Recent Conflict Intensity**: ACLED reported 1,475 political violence events in mid-May 2025 (17-23 May), showing a 5% increase week-over-week, with 93 incidents targeting civilians. This indicates an active, ongoing conflict with potential for substantial casualties.
2. **Daily Casualty Rates**: Multiple sources indicate Russian losses of approximately 1,000-1,200 soldiers per day (killed and wounded). While these figures include wounded (not just deaths) and come from Ukrainian sources which may have incentives to inflate numbers, they suggest significant ongoing combat intensity.
3. **Seasonal Patterns**: Historical data shows conflict intensity often increases in spring and summer months due to improved weather conditions for military operations. June falling in this period suggests potentially elevated casualty rates.
4. **Geographical Focus**: Reports indicate intense fighting in Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, with missile and drone strikes affecting Kyiv, Lviv, and other areas. This widespread combat footprint increases the potential for higher casualty counts.
## Examining Specific Numerical Benchmarks
While we don’t have explicit June 2025 data yet (as we’re only on June 3rd), we can estimate reasonable ranges:
1. **Extrapolating from Recent Trends**: If we consider the 39 civilian fatalities reported for just one week in May, and assume similar or increasing intensity, this suggests civilian deaths alone could reach 150+ for the full month of June.
2. **Military Casualties**: The estimated daily Russian losses of 1,000-1,200 (killed and wounded) suggest hundreds of deaths per day across both sides. Even if only 15-20% of these represent fatalities rather than injuries, this would translate to approximately 150-240 deaths per day (Russian and Ukrainian combined), or 4,500-7,200 monthly.
3. **Historical Comparisons**: Previous similar periods in the conflict have shown monthly death tolls in the thousands during active phases, particularly in contested regions like Donetsk.
## Confidence Adjustments and Uncertainty
Several factors introduce uncertainty into this forecast:
1. **Verification Challenges**: ACLED data relies on verified reports, which often undercount actual casualties, particularly in active conflict zones.
2. **Diplomatic Developments**: Reports mention potential negotiations, which could theoretically affect combat intensity during June, though no concrete outcomes are indicated.
3. **Escalation Potential**: The lifting of missile range restrictions reported in late May could lead to intensified fighting and potentially higher casualty rates.
4. **Short Forecast Window**: With the resolution date being June 15, 2025, we’re forecasting only a partial month (first half of June), which requires adjusting our expectations proportionally.
## Final Assessment
Given the evidence, I need to forecast the state-based conflict deaths that ACLED will report for June 2025. Since the resolution date is June 15, but the question asks about all of June, I must consider that ACLED will have only partial June data by the resolution date, likely covering the first 1-2 weeks of June.
The recent data showing 1,475 weekly political violence events with an increasing trend suggests a high-intensity conflict. The reported daily casualties of 1,000+ (including wounded) indicates substantial combat deaths are occurring. However, ACLED’s verified death counts are typically more conservative than claims from either side.
Given the ongoing intense combat operations, seasonal patterns favoring summer offensives, and the established pattern of thousands of monthly casualties during active phases, I assess that the most likely range falls between 1,000-1,500 deaths for June 2025, with substantial probability mass in adjacent ranges due to uncertainty.
Less than 500: 8%
Between 500 and 1000: 22%
Between 1000 and 1500: 35%
Between 1500 and 2000: 25%
Greater than 2000: 10
Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy’s bots —>
Full details from Phil’s pgodzinai bot forecast output —>
Phil’s Ukraine forecasts are a side experiment with the VIEWS competition. Its Ukraine dashboard is pictured below. (Carolyn‘s note: we expect that VIEWS will use ACLED data, given the tendency of nations to minimize their own fatalities and exaggerating those of their enemies.)
Source: VIEWS machine forecasting competition https://data.viewsforecasting.org/
