How many state-based conflict deaths (total of all civilian and combat deaths, including both Ukrainian and Russian combatants) will be reported by ACLED in Ukraine in June, 2025?
Here’s what Jeremy’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts today:
* Less than 500: 10%
* Between 500 and 1000: 45%
* Between 1000 and 1500: 30%
* Between 1500 and 2000: 10%
* Greater than 2000: 5%
Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: Ukraine conflict deaths June 2025
News from various sources:
The web content outlines various updates on the Ukraine conflict as of June 2025, particularly in the context of casualty statistics and geopolitical developments:
1. **Casualty Figures**:
– Russian forces are nearing their millionth casualty since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022. This includes both killed and injured soldiers, with recent estimates suggesting daily casualties of 1,000-1,200 troops.
– A specific Russian missile attack on Dnipro on June 24, 2025, resulted in at least 17 deaths and nearly 280 injuries. The attack targeted civilian infrastructure, including a passenger train.
2. **Geopolitical Developments**:
– U.S. President Donald Trump, attending a NATO summit, expressed unwillingness to commit to further U.S. aid to Ukraine but mentioned potential sales of air defense systems.
– Trump meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was noted, but no additional aid commitments were made. The U.S.’s stance appears indecisive, reflecting internal Republican party divisions on Ukraine aid.
– NATO allies agreed to increase defense spending, a decision driven largely by U.S. pressure, which Trump labeled a “monumental win.”
3. **International Efforts**:
– The Council of Europe and Ukraine are set to establish a special tribunal to prosecute top Russian officials for the aggression, emphasizing international accountability efforts.
– Ukraine’s ability to produce drones is highlighted, though financial constraints limit output. This underscores Ukraine’s push for more defense investments from allies.
4. **Military and Defense**:
– Ukraine and the UK have finalized an agreement to jointly produce drones, marking continued international collaboration in strengthening Ukraine’s defense capabilities.
5. **Trump’s Diplomatic Efforts**:
– Despite making Ukraine peace a priority, Trump’s efforts appear stalled, as negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin have not yielded a ceasefire.
– The U.S. remains cautious on deploying more aggressive sanctions or aid to compel Russia to the negotiating table.
Overall, the developments indicate an ongoing high level of violence and complex international dynamics as Ukraine navigates alliances and military strategies, while casualty numbers continue to rise.
Fact-checking news summary:
Based on the summary provided, here is a list of specific facts along with their analyses:
1. **Fact:** Russian forces are nearing their millionth casualty since the invasion began in February 2022, with daily casualties of 1,000-1,200 troops.
– **Correctness:** True in terms of internal consistency, but external verification is needed for the accuracy of these figures.
– **Importance:** Critical to the casualty statistics but not directly useful for predicting the June 2025 report by ACLED.
– **Relevance:** True; relates to ongoing casualties influencing the total count.
2. **Fact:** A Russian missile attack in Dnipro on June 24, 2025, resulted in at least 17 deaths and nearly 280 injuries.
– **Correctness:** Assuming truth for internal consistency but needs external fact-checking for accuracy.
– **Importance:** Important for context on the specific incident’s contribution to casualties.
– **Relevance:** True; contributes directly to the number of conflict deaths in June 2025.
3. **Fact:** U.S. President Donald Trump, attending a NATO summit, expressed unwillingness to commit to further U.S. aid to Ukraine.
– **Correctness:** False; as of my knowledge, Donald Trump was not the U.S. President in 2025.
– **Importance:** Lesser; mainly geopolitical context, not directly linked to casualty numbers.
– **Relevance:** True, geopolitics can impact conflict intensity and casualty outcomes indirectly.
4. **Fact:** Trump meeting with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy was noted, but no aid commitments were made; internal Republican divisions on Ukraine aid are mentioned.
– **Correctness:** False, given that Donald Trump was not U.S. President.
– **Importance:** Lesser; provides context for political dynamics but less impact on casualty figures.
– **Relevance:** True for indirect geopolitical impact.
5. **Fact:** NATO allies agreed to increase defense spending, which Trump labeled a “monumental win.”
– **Correctness:** Uncertain due to incorrect presidential attribution.
– **Importance:** Unimportant for the direct question of casualty numbers.
– **Relevance:** True, only indirectly relevant to casualty estimations.
6. **Fact:** Council of Europe and Ukraine to set up a special tribunal to prosecute Russian officials.
– **Correctness:** Needs external fact-checking.
– **Importance:** Unimportant for casualty statistics; legal implications.
– **Relevance:** False; does not affect casualty counts directly.
7. **Fact:** Ukraine’s ability to produce drones is noted, despite financial constraints.
– **Correctness:** True, internally consistent; common knowledge subject to external verification.
– **Importance:** Unimportant regarding direct conflict deaths.
– **Relevance:** False; impacts military strength rather than immediate casualty numbers.
8. **Fact:** Ukraine and the UK have an agreement to jointly produce drones.
– **Correctness:** True internally; requires external verification.
– **Importance:** Unimportant directly for casualty numbers.
– **Relevance:** False; affects defense capabilities rather than immediate deaths.
9. **Fact:** Trump’s diplomatic efforts for Ukraine peace are stalled; no ceasefire negotiated with Russia.
– **Correctness:** Cannot accurately judge due to incorrect presidential attribution.
– **Importance:** Lesser; indirectly affects the conflict situation.
– **Relevance:** True for influencing future conflict scenarios and casualty prevention.
10. **Fact:** U.S. cautious on sanctions/aid to compel Russia to negotiate.
– **Correctness:** Cannot confirm Trump’s policy, but plausible for a cautious stance.
– **Importance:** Unimportant for immediate death counts.
– **Relevance:** True in terms of geopolitical strategy influencing future dynamics.
Fact-checked summary:
In June 2025, the most directly relevant and confirmed fact regarding state-based conflict deaths in Ukraine is that a Russian missile attack in Dnipro on June 24 resulted in at least 17 deaths and nearly 280 injuries. This specific incident adds directly to the total number of conflict-related casualties in Ukraine for that month. While broader geopolitical events and dynamics may influence the conflict’s trajectory, their direct impact on the specific casualty numbers reported by ACLED for June 2025 is not established in this fact-checked summary.
OpenAI gives a base rate of Probability of total casualties Between 500 and 1000
The question difficulty is rated 6 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
Average monthly casualties in the year prior, 0.3
Intensity of current conflict dynamics, 0.4
Reporting accuracy and completeness, 0.3
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
Using historical average monthly casualties (700 to 1000), intensity of conflict (reflecting recent attack resulting in at least 17 deaths, estimating around 50 for June), and reporting accuracy, assigning prior probabilities and updating with current evidence.
Bayesian base rate: 0.5
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 0 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 5
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate was determined by evaluating the historical average monthly casualties, patterns in conflict intensity, and the ongoing nature of hostilities. Given recent major attacks, a mid-range total casualty count is reasonable.
Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Access to comprehensive, real-time casualty data, better understanding of ACLED’s reporting lag and margin of error, and insider information on potential near-term escalations or de-escalations would enhance forecast accuracy.
Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
A sudden de-escalation or ceasefire could reduce casualties significantly, while a major escalation or new offensive could increase casualties unexpectedly.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
Continued active hostilities in Ukraine throughout June 2025. Highly likely – Continued reporting and verification by ACLED on conflict-related deaths. Likely – Major battles or escalations resulting in significant daily casualties. Moderate
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“Less than 500”: 0.15, “Between 500 and 1000”: 0.45, “Between 1000 and 1500”: 0.25, “Between 1500 and 2000”: 0.1, “Greater than 2000”: 0.05] – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“Less than 500”: 0.1, “Between 500 and 1000”: 0.5, “Between 1000 and 1500”: 0.3, “Between 1500 and 2000”: 0.08, “Greater than 2000”: 0.02] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“Less than 500”: 0.05, “Between 500 and 1000”: 0.35, “Between 1000 and 1500”: 0.3, “Between 1500 and 2000”: 0.2, “Greater than 2000”: 0.1] – confidence: 5)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
MAPD: Avg: 0.066666666666667, Max: 0.1
# LLM responses: 3
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>
Model value:
* Less than 500: 10%
* Between 500 and 1000: 45%
* Between 1000 and 1500: 30%
* Between 1500 and 2000: 10%
* Greater than 2000: 5%
The predictions regarding conflict casualties in Ukraine for June 2025 are primarily based on the analysis of historical data, recent events, and ongoing conflict dynamics. Historical patterns suggest that monthly casualties typically range between 500 and 1000, considering moderate conflict intensity and periodic major incidents like the Dnipro missile attack on June 24, 2025. The analysis accounts for continued hostilities without significant escalation, although potential fluctuations exist due to unforeseen events such as major escalations or ceasefires. The end-of-month timing enables better predictions, but uncertainty remains due to possible revisions in casualty data or last-minute developments affecting current conflict trends.
Runtime: 150 seconds.
Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy ’s bots —>
Jeremy’s Ukraine forecasts are a side experiment with the VIEWS competition. The VIEWS Ukraine dashboard is pictured below. (Carolyn’s note: VIEWS is using ACLED data to score its competitors, given the tendency of nations to minimize their own fatalities and exaggerating those of their enemies.)
Source: Views machine forecasting competition https://data.viewsforecasting.org/
