The International Longshoremen’s Association returned to the bargaining table on Jan. 15, 2025 to discuss automation and other issues. What’s the probability of a strike in Q1 2025?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 15%, down from 25% Friday.
Obtaining outside newsfeed. News from various sources. Based on the most recent news articles, here’s a summary of the US dockworkers situation:
A potential major strike was averted in early January 2025 when the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA), representing 45,000 dock workers on the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts, reached a tentative agreement with port operators. This development came after concerns about a possible strike that could have disrupted supply chains and potentially impacted the U.S. economy.
The agreement followed a period of tension over various issues, including automation at ports, which had been a key point of contention between workers and port operators. The resolution helps avoid what could have been a significant disruption to U.S. supply chains, as these ports handle a substantial portion of U.S. maritime trade.
Separate but related, there has been recent labor activity in Canada, with Glencore mine workers in Sudbury reaching a tentative deal to avoid a strike, showing that labor negotiations continue to be active across North America’s transportation and industrial sectors. The resolution of the U.S. dock workers situation represents a significant win for supply chain stability, particularly following previous disruptions in October 2024.
Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“In early January 2025, a potential major strike by 45,000 dock workers on the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts was averted when the International Longshoremen’s Association reached a tentative agreement with port operators, addressing key issues such as automation at ports. This agreement alleviated fears of disruptions to supply chains and its potential impact on the U.S. economy. Meanwhile, in Canada, Glencore mine workers in Sudbury also reached a tentative agreement, highlighting ongoing labor negotiations in North America’s transportation and industrial sectors. The resolution of the U.S. dock workers’ situation is viewed as a stabilizing factor for supply chains, especially following earlier disruptions in October 2024. However, the newsfeed should be approached with caution as it may contain unverified information.”
Fact-checking news summary:
Here’s a list of specific facts from the summary, along with an analysis of their accuracy, importance, and relevance:
1. **Fact:** In early January 2025, a potential major strike by 45,000 dock workers on the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts was averted.
– **True/False:** True (if verified by factual sources).
– **Importance:** Important to critical.
– **Relevance:** True (relevant to the probability of a strike).
2. **Fact:** The International Longshoremen’s Association reached a tentative agreement with port operators.
– **True/False:** True (if verified by factual sources).
– **Importance:** Important to critical.
– **Relevance:** True (relevant to the probability of a strike).
3. **Fact:** The agreement addressed key issues such as automation at ports.
– **True/False:** True (if verified by factual sources).
– **Importance:** Important.
– **Relevance:** True (relevant to bargaining table discussions).
4. **Fact:** The agreement alleviated fears of disruptions to supply chains and its potential impact on the U.S. economy.
– **True/False:** True (if verified by factual sources).
– **Importance:** Important.
– **Relevance:** True (relevant to evaluating economic impact and strike probability).
5. **Fact:** In Canada, Glencore mine workers in Sudbury also reached a tentative agreement.
– **True/False:** True (if verified by factual sources).
– **Importance:** Lesser importance.
– **Relevance:** False (not relevant to the likelihood of a dock workers’ strike in the U.S.).
6. **Fact:** There were ongoing labor negotiations in North America’s transportation and industrial sectors.
– **True/False:** True (general statement, likely accurate).
– **Importance:** Lesser importance.
– **Relevance:** True (provides context but not directly relevant).
7. **Fact:** The resolution of the U.S. dock workers’ situation is viewed as a stabilizing factor for supply chains.
– **True/False:** True (if this is a common interpretation in reports).
– **Importance:** Important.
– **Relevance:** True (ties to strike probability analysis).
8. **Fact:** There were earlier supply chain disruptions in October 2024.
– **True/False:** True (if events confirm this, such as a separate incident).
– **Importance:** Lesser importance.
– **Relevance:** True (provides historical context).
9. **Fact:** The newsfeed should be approached with caution as it may contain unverified information.
– **True/False:** True (general cautionary statement).
– **Importance:** Important.
– **Relevance:** True (always relevant to ensure information accuracy).
Each fact’s truthfulness would ideally require verification through reliable sources to confirm external consistency, especially those with significant importance or relevance to predicting the probability of a strike.
Fact-checked summary:
In early January 2025, a major strike by 45,000 dock workers on the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts was averted when the International Longshoremen’s Association reached a tentative agreement with port operators. This agreement addressed key issues such as automation at ports, alleviating fears of disruptions to supply chains and their potential impact on the U.S. economy. The resolution of this situation is viewed as a stabilizing factor for supply chains, which is important for evaluating the probability of a strike. It is crucial to note that ensuring accuracy through reliable sources is important when interpreting this information.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.1. The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
To arrive at the base rate, I considered the recent history of labor negotiations between the ILA and port operators. Typically, once a tentative agreement is reached, the likelihood of reverting to a strike is low. In similar past instances, such agreements tend to hold unless a significant new issue arises. Furthermore, the successful averted strike should stabilize negotiations for the short term, leading to a base rate closer to 10%. The current situation appears to have strong stabilizing factors, such as addressing key issues like automation concerns, which further reduces the likelihood of a strike.
Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Should any significant economic events occur that affect the port operations or labor force, such as sudden economic downturns or major policy changes, the probability of a strike occurring would diverge from the base rate. Additionally, should there be a failure to ratify the agreement by the negotiating parties, this would significantly increase the likelihood of labor action. Although these factors are currently not prominent, they would need to be monitored for any changes.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Breakdown in communication between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and port operators. (Unlikely)
– A significant change in circumstances that invalidates the existing tentative agreement. (Unlikely)
– Failure by either party to ratify the agreement. (Possible but not very likely)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 7)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.12 – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.15
Base rate: 0.1 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.01
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.07
Reverse Mellers: 0.24
Theory of Mind: 0.25 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.001
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Model value: 0.15
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The consensus among the AIs indicates that the likelihood of a strike in Q1 2025 is low, primarily due to a recent tentative agreement that addresses major issues such as automation. Historically, once such agreements are reached, the probability of a strike decreases significantly. Factors supporting stability include the willingness of both parties to negotiate and the resolution of key disputes like salary increases. However, potential destabilizing factors such as economic downturns, policy changes, or unexpected rejection of the agreement during ratification could increase the risk of a strike. The inherent unpredictability of labor negotiations and the potential for undisclosed tensions or misinformation also add a degree of uncertainty to this assessment.
How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today: How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
* less than 172: 19.05%
* between 172 and 205: 42.86%
* between 206 and 240: 28.57%
* more than 240: 9.52%
Most Recent Developments (Last 24-48 hours):
– Conservative Party fundraising has reached record-breaking levels in 2024, nearly doubling the combined totals of the Liberal Party and NDP. This indicates strong financial momentum for the Conservatives heading into a potential election.
– Party leaders are actively campaigning across Ontario, particularly in the Toronto area and Kitchener, against the backdrop of looming trade tensions between Canada and the US. The Conservative MP for Bay of Quinte, Ryan Williams, has called for an election to address Trump’s proposed tariffs, warning of potential “economic carnage.”
Electoral Landscape:
– Polls are showing the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, with a significant lead ahead of a federal election that must legally be held by October 20, 2024, though it may occur sooner. This potential change in government has caught the attention of equity investors who are hoping for increased market returns under Conservative leadership.
– At the provincial level, Ontario is preparing for elections with varying levels of party readiness across different ridings. In the London area, for example, only three of ten ridings have a full slate of candidates from the four major parties, highlighting the ongoing process of candidate selection.
The overall narrative suggests strong momentum for the Conservative Party, both financially and in polling, while the country grapples with economic challenges including potential trade conflicts with the US. The timing and specific triggers for the next federal election remain subjects of political discussion.
Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“Recent reports in Canadian politics suggest that the Conservative Party is experiencing significant financial and polling momentum as a potential federal election approaches, possibly before the legally mandated deadline of October 2024. The Conservatives have reportedly achieved record-breaking fundraising levels, far outpacing the Liberal Party and NDP combined. Politically, party leaders are actively campaigning in Ontario, amid concerns over proposed US tariffs that could impact Canada’s economy. Conservative MP Ryan Williams has voiced the need for an election to address these economic challenges. Meanwhile, preparations for provincial elections in Ontario reveal varied readiness across ridings. While the narrative points to a strong position for the Conservatives, the exact timing and catalysts for a federal election remain uncertain.”
Fact-checking news summary:
Based on the provided summary, here are the specific facts, along with an assessment of their correctness, importance, and relevance to the outcome:
1. **Fact**: The Conservative Party is experiencing significant financial and polling momentum.
– **Correctness**: True. Reports indicate that the Conservative Party has been gaining momentum in recent polls and has increased its fundraising efforts.
– **Importance**: Important. Momentum in both finances and polling can directly influence the number of seats a party could potentially win.
– **Relevance**: True. This fact is relevant to determining how many seats the Conservative Party might win.
2. **Fact**: A federal election in Canada could occur before the legally mandated deadline of October 2024.
– **Correctness**: True. While the deadline is in October 2024, elections can be called earlier under certain circumstances.
– **Importance**: Critical. The timing of the election can significantly affect the outcome in terms of seat distribution.
– **Relevance**: True. The timing of the election is relevant to predicting the number of seats the Conservatives could win.
3. **Fact**: The Conservatives have achieved record-breaking fundraising levels, outpacing the Liberal Party and NDP combined.
– **Correctness**: True, assuming recent accurate reports; historically, Conservatives have been strong fundraisers.
– **Importance**: Important. Financial resources are key to funding campaign activities, which can help in winning more seats.
– **Relevance**: True. This financial success is relevant to the party’s potential performance in an election.
4. **Fact**: Conservative leaders are actively campaigning in Ontario.
– **Correctness**: True. Political parties have been actively campaigning in key regions like Ontario.
– **Importance**: Important. Ontario is a significant battleground province in Canadian federal elections, affecting the number of seats won.
– **Relevance**: True. Campaigning in Ontario is directly relevant to the number of seats possibly won.
5. **Fact**: Proposed US tariffs could impact Canada’s economy.
– **Correctness**: True, as trade policies can significantly affect bilateral economic conditions.
– **Importance**: Less important. While the economy can influence election outcomes, it’s more of a background issue compared to party momentum and campaigning.
– **Relevance**: True, but only indirectly. Economic issues can sway voter decisions, affecting election results.
6. **Fact**: Conservative MP Ryan Williams has called for an election to address economic challenges.
– **Correctness**: True, assuming accurate reporting of his statements as MPs occasionally call for elections to address pressing issues.
– **Importance**: Unimportant. While MPs’ calls can reflect sentiments within the party, they do not directly affect how many seats the party will win.
– **Relevance**: False. This fact is not directly relevant to the Conservative Party’s seat count.
7. **Fact**: Preparations for provincial elections in Ontario reveal varied readiness across ridings.
– **Correctness**: True. Election preparations often vary across different areas.
– **Importance**: Unimportant. Provincial preparations are not directly related to federal outcomes.
– **Relevance**: False. Provincial readiness does not impact the federal Conservative Party’s seat count.
8. **Fact**: The narrative points to a strong position for the Conservatives, but the timing and catalysts for a federal election remain uncertain.
– **Correctness**: True. While they seem strong currently, elections can be unpredictable in timing and results.
– **Importance**: Important. The general position of the party and uncertainty of timing both play critical roles.
– **Relevance**: True. This impacts strategic planning and potential election outcomes.
Fact-checked summary:
The Conservative Party of Canada is experiencing significant financial and polling momentum, as they have increased their fundraising efforts and gained momentum in recent polls. This is important because momentum in both finances and polling can directly influence the number of seats a party could potentially win, making it relevant to determining the possible seat count in the next federal election. Additionally, a federal election could occur before the legally mandated deadline of October 2024, as elections can sometimes be called earlier under specific circumstances. The timing of the election is critical because it can significantly affect the outcome in terms of seat distribution, hence making it relevant to the Conservatives’ potential seat count. The Conservative Party’s financial success is underscored by their record-breaking fundraising levels, outpacing the combined fundraising of the Liberal Party and NDP. Financial resources are key to funding campaign activities, which is important for winning more seats, thus making this financial success relevant to their potential performance in an election. Furthermore, the party is actively campaigning in Ontario, a significant battleground province, which directly impacts the number of seats they might win. Finally, the general strong position of the Conservative Party amid uncertainty regarding the timing and catalysts for a federal election plays a crucial role in strategic planning and potential election outcomes.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.25, “between 172 and 205”: 0.45, “between 206 and 240”: 0.2, “more than 240”: 0.1] – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.1, “between 172 and 205”: 0.5, “between 206 and 240”: 0.3, “more than 240”: 0.1] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.2, “between 172 and 205”: 0.3, “between 206 and 240”: 0.35, “more than 240”: 0.15] – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* less than 172: 0.1905
* between 172 and 205: 0.4286
* between 206 and 240: 0.2857
* more than 240: 0.0952
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The Conservative Party of Canada is currently experiencing strong momentum in both fundraising and polling, surpassing their rivals and indicating increased public support. This financial advantage positions them well for an effective campaign, with particular focus on the battleground province of Ontario, which is crucial for gaining seats. However, despite this optimism, several uncertainties could affect the outcome, such as the timing of the election, unreliable polling data, and unexpected shifts in regional voting patterns. Additionally, external factors like economic conditions, political scandals, and potential strategic alliances among opposing parties could greatly affect voter sentiment and the ultimate electoral success of the Conservatives. While their record-breaking fundraising and campaigning strategies are notable advantages, overcoming structural challenges in various regions remains a significant hurdle.
Runtime for both questions on this page: 152 seconds.
Past Multi-AI Oracle Forecasts
Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports
Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
