How many state-based conflict deaths will be reported by ACLED for the month of May 2025?
Here’s what Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicts today:
* Less than 100: 2%
* Between 100 and 250: 13%
* Between 250 and 500: 32%
* Between 500 and 1000: 35%
* Greater than 1000: 18%
Perplexity response:
{think}
Okay, let’s tackle this query. The user wants to know how many state-based conflict deaths ACLED will report in Syria for May 2025, with options from less than 100 up to over 1000. The background points to ACLED’s latest updates, so I need to focus on recent data.
First, I’ll check the provided search results. The most recent ones are from May 2025.
In the search results, [1] and [2] are the only ones relevant to Syria in May 2025. [3] has older data. [4] and [5] are about Burkina Faso and Sahel. So, focusing on [1] and [2].
Result [1]: Middle East Overview: May 2025 (May 8, 2025) mentions clashes on Syrian coast with 800 deaths. But this is part of a broader Middle East overview, so the 800 might not be Syria-only.
Result [2]: ACLED Regional Overview Middle East: May 2025 (May 9, 2025) mentions Northern Syria with 362 deaths, including 150 civilians. This is Syria-specific.
So, from the available data, up to May 9th, there’s 362 deaths in Northern Syria. But the month isn’t over, so the total could be higher. However, without later data, it’s hard to tell. The 800 figure in [1] might be a different conflict or part of a broader area. Since the user is asking about state-based conflict deaths in Syria, the 362 in [2] is more relevant. But that’s just a part of Syria (Northern) and early in the month. If similar violence continues, the total could reach higher numbers.
Another angle: the May 8th article mentions violence following clashes between government and pro-Assad militias on the Syrian coast, resulting in 800 deaths. If this is a single event, then in the first week, 800 deaths. If that’s state-based (government forces vs. militias), then that’s included. But the 800 could be for the entire Middle East, as the article title is “Middle East Overview.” The user’s question is Syria-specific. Therefore, caution is needed here. Without Syria-specific numbers, it’s risky to assume.
Alternatively, the 362 deaths in Northern Syria (state-based) reported on May 9th. Up to that date, 362. If the month continues with similar violence, the total could be higher. But the options given are ranges. The 362 is between 250-500, but that’s just early May. If the violence escalates, it could reach 500-1000 or more. However, without later data, it’s speculative.
The answer should present the available data, then assess the possible range. Since the user’s options are ranges, the assistant needs to determine which range is more likely based on early May data and historical context.
In the search results, the May 8th article’s 800 deaths might be a specific incident, but if that’s part of the state-based conflict in Syria, then even in the first week, it’s over 800. But if that’s a Middle East total, then Syria’s portion would be lower. The answer should clarify this uncertainty.
Given that the user is a superforecaster, the assistant should present the available data, note the ambiguity, and suggest possible ranges. However, with the given info, the 362 deaths in Northern Syria (state-based) as of May 9th, and another incident with 800 deaths (if Syria-specific), the total could be in the higher ranges. But if the 800 is not Syria-specific, then the 362 is the key number, and the total might be between 500-1000 if similar numbers continue.
The answer should list the citations, summarize each, then analyze the possibilities, citing the sources. The final assessment would consider the available data and potential trajectories.
**Citation Summary**
1. **Middle East Overview: May 2025** (May 8, 2025)
– Focus: Clashes between Syrian government forces and pro-Assad militias on the Syrian coast.
– Key Data: Violence resulted in “at least 800 deaths” during conflicts in early May, though regional context complicates Syria-specific attribution.
– Source: ACLED analysis of broader Middle East trends[1].
2. **ACLED Regional Overview Middle East: May 2025** (May 9, 2025)
– Focus: State-based conflict in Northern Syria.
– Key Data: 362 deaths recorded, including ~150 civilian fatalities.
– Source: Detailed regional breakdown by ACLED[2].
3. **Jihadist Attack in Burkina Faso** (May 13, 2025)
– Relevance: Unrelated to Syria but highlights ACLED’s methodology for tracking conflict deaths (cited for context).
– Source: AFP reporting on Burkina Faso violence[4].
4. **HRW Letter on EU’s Sahel Approach** (May 15, 2025)
– Relevance: References ACLED’s data on civilian fatalities in counterterrorism operations but focuses on the Sahel region.
– Source: HRW advocacy document[5].
5. **Syrian Regime Collapse** (December 19, 2024)
– Context: ASAD regime fell in December 2024, enabling increased Israeli airstrikes and HTS activity.
– Source: ACLED retrospective analysis[3].
—
**Analysis**
Recent ACLED reports indicate **escalating state-based violence in Syria** during early May 2025. Two critical data points emerge:
– **Northern Syria**: 362 deaths (including civilians) were recorded between May 9 and earlier dates, reflecting clashes between government forces and groups like the SDF[2].
– **Syrian Coast Clashes**: A separate report cites “at least 800 deaths” in early May, though this figure may include non-state actors or regional conflicts beyond Syria’s borders[1].
**Key Ambiguities**:
1. The **800-death figure** lacks Syria-specific granularity—ACLED’s Middle East Overview often aggregates regional data.
2. **State-based conflict** in Syria typically involves government forces, militias, or foreign actors. The 362 deaths in Northern Syria align with this definition[2], while the 800 deaths may overlap or include non-state actors.
**Projection Context**:
– If the **800 deaths** are Syria-specific and state-based, early May totals already exceed the “Greater than 1000” threshold.
– If the 800 represents broader regional violence, the **362-death figure** for Northern Syria suggests monthly totals may reach **500–1,000** if violence continues.
**Resolution Probability**:
Based on early May data, **Between 500 and 1,000 deaths** appears most plausible, assuming sustained clashes. However, the 800-death incident (if Syria-specific) could push totals above 1,000 by month-end.
**Recommendation for Superforecaster**:
Prioritize ACLED’s Syria-specific reports as more data emerges. Monitor for distinctions between state-based and non-state conflicts, as the latter would exclude from the “state-based” count.
AskNews Deep Search Response:
1. **Citation [12]**: “Trump meets Syria’s Al-Sharaa in Riyadh” (Khaama Press, May 14, 2025)
– **Relevance**: U.S. sanctions on Syria were lifted on May 14, 2025, as part of a diplomatic shift. This development could reduce conflict intensity by incentivizing stability efforts.
2. **Citation [13]**: “Trump lève les sanctions contre la Syrie” (RT, May 14, 2025)
– **Relevance**: Sanctions that depressed Syria’s economy since 2011 were lifted. The Syrian pound’s potential stabilization and reconstruction plans ($400 billion estimate) may ease civil unrest.
3. **Citation [3]**: هل يلتقط السوريون الفرصة العربية الأميركية؟ (العربي الجديد, May 14, 2025)
– **Relevance**: U.S.-Arab initiatives (sanctions relief, Kurdish Workers’ Party dissolution) reduced tensions in early May 2025, though humanitarian challenges persist.
4. **Citation [10]**: “WFP Syria Emergency Response” (ReliefWeb, May 14, 2025)
– **Relevance**: WFP reports 1.5M Syrians/month receiving aid, but funding shortfalls risk destabilization, highlighting lingering vulnerabilities.
5. **Citation [6]**: “以军称袭击叙利亚境内目标” (news.cn, May 14, 2025)
– **Relevance**: Israeli airstrikes on southern Syria (May 2–3, 2025) targeted artillery and militants but caused limited casualties, per IDF statements.
6. **Citation [21]**: “Gaza Emergency Response” (ReliefWeb, May 13, 2025)
– **Contextual Note**: While focused on Gaza, this indirectly underscores regional volatility, though Syria-specific conflict metrics are not addressed here.
**Key Trends**:
– The U.S. sanctions lift (May 14) and diplomatic reintegration efforts likely suppressed conflict escalation in late May 2025.
– Israeli strikes in early May contributed to some fatalities but were localized and limited in scale.
– No direct ACLED data for May 2025 is cited in the sources, but recent diplomatic shifts suggest lower casualties compared to prior months.
**Expert Assessments**:
– Syrian interim leader Al-Sharaa pledged to expel foreign militants and pursue peace talks with Israel [12], which may reduce clashes.
– Regional analysts note Syria’s “fragile” stability but improved prospects post-sanctions [3][13].
**Limitations**:
– No explicit ACLED death tolls for May 2025 are reported in these sources.
– Gaza-related fatalities dominate the dataset, creating contextual noise.
**Conclusion**:
Given the mid-May sanctions lift and reduced tensions, May 2025 conflict deaths in Syria are **most likely between 100 and 250**, accounting for early-month clashes and late-month de-escalation.
GPT News Summary:
Here’s a concise rundown of the recent developments concerning state-based conflicts in Syria that may influence the forecast on conflict deaths reported by ACLED in May 2025:
1. **Peace Developments in Syria**:
– A significant peace deal was signed between the Syrian interim government and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northern Syria. This agreement has led to a notable reduction in armed confrontations as of May 9, 2025 (“ACLED Regional Overview Middle East: May 2025”).
– President Donald Trump met with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa in Riyadh on May 14, 2025, with hopes this meeting could lead to a peaceful resolution of conflicts in Syria following Trump’s decision to lift sanctions (“Trump Meets with Syrian President in Riyadh”).
2. **Turkish Operations Against PKK**:
– The bulk of operations against the PKK has been moved outside Turkey’s borders, with significant military activities in Syria and Iraq by 2024. However, the reported number of PKK terrorists killed by Turkish forces has declined significantly from previous years (“The ‘Erdoğan Concept’ and the PKK’s Defeat”, May 14, 2025).
3. **Ongoing Regional Conflicts and Displacement**:
– An ongoing severe humanitarian situation persists, with Syria contributing significantly to displacement figures globally. As of 2024, approximately 3.7 million Syrians are internally displaced due to ongoing violence and natural disasters (“Record 83.4 Million Internally Displaced Persons”, various reports dated May 13, 2025).
4. **Recent Data on Civilian Casualties**:
– As of May 3, 2025, global political violence has increased, with notable focus areas including Syria. However, specific figures for Syrian casualties in May thus far appear lower compared to earlier months (“Feasting on the Fallen”, May 3, 2025).
Considering these recent updates, the peace agreement between the Syrian interim government and the SDF may suggest a potential decline in reported conflict deaths in northern regions of Syria for May 2025. The outcome of political dialogues and sanctions relief might further stabilize the situation, although ongoing regional tensions and displacements continue to present risks for renewed violence.
=== Reasoning ===
All Predictions:
Less than 100′: 0.06, ‘Between 100 and 250’: 0.28, ‘Between 250 and 500’: 0.34, ‘
Between 500 and 1000’: 0.22, ‘
Greater than 1000’: 0.1},
‘Less than 100′: 0.02, Between 100 and 250′: 0.13, Between 250 and 500’: 0.32, ‘Between 500 and 1000’: 0.35, ‘Greater than 1000’: 0.18
Less than 100′: 0.05000000000000001, Between 100 and 250′: 0.25000000000000006, Between 250 and 500′: 0.35000000000000003, Between 500 and 1000′: 0.25000000000000006, Greater than 1000′: 0.0999999999999998}]
Median Reasoning: EXTRACTED_PROBABILITIES: [2, 13, 32, 35, 18]
* Less than 100: 2%
* Between 100 and 250: 13%
* Between 250 and 500: 32%
* Between 500 and 1000: 35%
* Greater than 1000: 18%
Full details of Phil’s Syria forecasts today —>
Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy ’s bots —>
Below, a forecast of state-based conflict fatalities for Syria in the VIEWS machine forecasting competition, which is an aggregate of the forecasts of twenty competitors. Our botmasters, Phil Godzin and Jeremy Lichtman, are conducting a side experiment with VIEWS.
