Ukraine Conflict Deaths? Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman’s forecast, Sept. 25, 2025

How many state-based conflict deaths (total of all civilian and combat deaths, including both Ukrainian and Russian combatants) will be reported by ACLED in Ukraine in September 2025?

Here’s what Jeremy’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts today:

* Less than 500: 5%
* Between 500 and 1,000: 21%
* Between 1,000 and 1,500: 37%
* Between 1,500 and 2,000: 26%
* Greater than 2,000: 11%

10–13 minutes read

Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: Ukraine conflict deaths September 2025
News from various sources:

The content covers several aspects related to the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, with a focus on recent incidents and the broader humanitarian and demographic impacts. Here’s a summary of the key points:

1. **Death of Journalist Viktoria Roshchyna**: Ukrainian journalist Viktoria Roshchyna died in Russian captivity in September 2024. Investigations revealed she was held and died in a detention center in Kizel, Russia. The circumstances of her death remain under investigation, but it has been noted that detainees, including Roshchyna, faced harsh treatment and abuse, leading to her posthumous recognition with the US Oxi Courage Award.
2. **Demographic Crisis**: Ukraine is experiencing severe demographic challenges exacerbated by the ongoing war. High mortality rates from the conflict, a low fertility rate of just one child per woman, and mass displacement have led to a sharp population decline over the past decades. Experts indicate this trend could continue, affecting Ukraine’s long-term social and economic stability.
3. **Mine Ban Treaty Suspension**: Ukraine has controversially declared a suspension of its obligations under the Mine Ban Treaty citing a “fundamental change of circumstances” due to the conflict with Russia. This move has raised legal and humanitarian concerns, as suspensions during armed conflict are generally considered unlawful under international law. Critics warn of the precedent this sets for other treaty members.
4. **Civilian Casulaties**: The United Nations reports rising civilian casualties in Ukraine, with escalating attacks leading to high civilian death and injury tolls. In June, the highest number of civilian casualties was recorded in three years, highlighting the ongoing dangers for those remaining in the conflict zones.
5. **International Response and Peace Talks**: While peace talks are hinted at, progress appears limited. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov has faced international scrutiny but remains firm on Russia’s military actions. The conflict continues to strain international relations and challenge humanitarian principles as casualties mount and diplomatic efforts stumble.

Overall, the content highlights the ongoing humanitarian crises, legal challenges, and demographic impacts resulting from the prolonged conflict between Ukraine and Russia.

Fact-checking news summary:
Let’s break down the summary provided into specific facts, and analyze each for correctness, importance, and relevance to the original question regarding state-based conflict deaths in Ukraine reported by ACLED for September 2025.
1. **Death of Journalist Viktoria Roshchyna**
– Fact: Ukrainian journalist Viktoria Roshchyna died in Russian captivity in September 2024.
– Correctness: Unknown externally without further context, but appears internally consistent.
– Importance: Critical. Specific incidents involving identifiable figures might impact reported conflict deaths.
– Relevance: True. While specific individual deaths might not be directly counted in conflict death statistics, high-profile cases can influence overall reporting and perception.
2. **Demographic Crisis in Ukraine**
– Fact: Ukraine is experiencing a demographic decline due to low fertility rates, high mortality rates, and mass displacement.
– Correctness: This is generally supported by various reports on Ukraine’s demographic issues.
– Importance: Important. Demographic shifts can implicitly affect conflict through population composition and societal pressure but do not directly inform conflict death counts.
– Relevance: True. While relevant to broader conflict consequences, it doesn’t directly predict September 2025 death counts.
3. **Suspension of Mine Ban Treaty by Ukraine**
– Fact: Ukraine has suspended its obligations under the Mine Ban Treaty, raising legal concerns.
– Correctness: Uncertain without verifying current international relations and treaties.
– Importance: Important. Legal and military actions can escalate conflict and affect death tolls.
– Relevance: True. This action may indirectly influence conflict dynamics and subsequent deaths.
4. **Rising Civilian Casualties**
– Fact: The United Nations reports a rising number of civilian casualties in Ukraine, with June recording the highest in three years.
– Correctness: Needs verification, but trending casualties are plausible given the conflict’s nature.
– Importance: Critical. Directly relevant to estimating conflict-related deaths in September 2025.
– Relevance: True. It reflects broader trends in rising casualties, relevant to projecting future death figures.
5. **International Response and Peace Talks**
– Fact: Limited progress in peace talks, with Russia facing scrutiny and continued international pressure.
– Correctness: Generally true based on ongoing diplomatic challenges.
– Importance: Important. Diplomatic tensions can prolong or intensify conflict situations.
– Relevance: True. Ongoing failures in peace talks could correlate with ongoing or increased conflict and thus higher death tolls.

Each fact is addressed regarding its alignment with the query on state-based conflict deaths in September 2025, focusing on whether they might tangibly impact those death statistics.

Fact-checked summary:
In considering the question of state-based conflict deaths in Ukraine reported by ACLED for September 2025, several relevant and true facts stand out. The United Nations has reported a rising trend in civilian casualties in Ukraine, noting a significant increase in June, the highest in three years. This trend is critical as it directly relates to estimating future conflict-related deaths. Additionally, ongoing diplomatic challenges and the limited progress in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, despite international pressure, are significant, as diplomatic tensions can potentially prolong or intensify the conflict and lead to higher death tolls. These facts collectively provide a basis for understanding potential factors affecting conflict casualty figures in September 2025.

OpenAI gives a base rate of Between 1000 and 1500
The question difficulty is rated 8 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
Historical conflict deaths for similar periods, 0.4
Current diplomatic situation, 0.2
Recent trend in civilian casualties, 0.3
Magnitude of ongoing military operations, 0.1
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
Using the historical factors: (0.4 * base_rate_historical + 0.2 * likelihood_diplomatic_situation + 0.3 * recent_civilian_casualties_trend + 0.1 * scale_military_operations) = 0.3
Bayesian base rate: 0.3 (Carolyn‘s note: In cases where the Multi-AI Oracle is only forecasting a single percent probability, this Bayesian rate is easy to understand. But in this case, with five probability buckets, this apparently is an overall fudge factor across all buckets.)
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: reference_class
Expected time (days) until question close: 5
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate is derived from historical conflict death data trends in similar periods, accounting for the time of heightened conflict in Ukraine and past precedent of death tolls reported in similar scenarios.

Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Additional data from more recent UN and ACLED reports, intelligence reports on military movements, or leakages of potential peace deal breakthroughs would improve prediction accuracy.

Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
If unexpected breakthroughs in peace negotiations occur or if there is a sudden escalation that international forces intervene in, the actual death toll could vary significantly from the base rate prediction.

The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Continuation of ongoing conflict in Ukraine throughout September 2025 Almost certain
– Lack of significant progress in diplomatic peace talks Likely
– Continued military engagements reported by ACLED Likely
– Increased civilian casualties as reported by the UN Likely

Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“Less than 500”: 0.15, “Between 500 and 1000”: 0.25, “Between 1000 and 1500”: 0.35, “Between 1500 and 2000”: 0.2, “Greater than 2000”: 0.05] – confidence: 6)

Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“Less than 500”: 0.05, “Between 500 and 1000”: 0.2, “Between 1000 and 1500”: 0.4, “Between 1500 and 2000”: 0.25, “Greater than 2000”: 0.1] – confidence: 5)

Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“Less than 500”: 0.05, “Between 500 and 1000”: 0.15, “Between 1000 and 1500”: 0.35, “Between 1500 and 2000”: 0.25, “Greater than 2000”: 0.2] – confidence: 6)

Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
MAPD: Avg: 0.06, Max: 0.1
# LLM responses: 3
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>

Model value:
* Less than 500: 5%
* Between 500 and 1,000: 21%
* Between 1,000 and 1,500: 37%
* Between 1,500 and 2,000: 26%
* Greater than 2,000: 11%

The AI systems analyzing conflict death trends in Ukraine as of September 2025 focus on historical data and current events to predict casualty figures. They highlight the sustained conflict dynamics, with the UN reporting increasing civilian casualties and suggesting a base rate of 1000-1500 deaths, consistent with ACLED data during active conflict periods. The continued military engagements and lack of significant diplomatic progress reinforce expectations of ongoing casualties. However, there is notable uncertainty due to the potential for unforeseen diplomatic breakthroughs, military escalations, or changes in reporting methodologies. Such developments could significantly alter conflict dynamics, leading to deviations from typical casualty predictions.

Runtime: 154 seconds.

Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy ’s bots —>

Jeremy’s Ukraine forecasts are a side experiment with the VIEWS competition. The VIEWS Ukraine dashboard is pictured below. (Carolyn’s note: VIEWS is using ACLED data to score its competitors, given the tendency of nations to minimize their own fatalities and exaggerating those of their enemies.)