What is the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 45%, up from 25% yesterday.
Obtaining outside newsfeed from AskNews: Here are the current news articles relevant to the keywords “US Steel Nippon Steel merger” from reliable sources
1. **Title:** US President Biden to decide fate of Nippon Steel’s US$15 billion bid for US Steel
**URL:** [straitstimes.com]https://www.straitstimes.com
**Summary:** US President Joe Biden has been referred the $15 billion bid by Nippon Steel to acquire US Steel, giving him 15 days to decide on the deal. Biden has previously expressed opposition to the tie-up, but if he takes no action, the merger would get an unexpected greenlight. Nippon Steel and US Steel have urged Biden to approve the deal, citing benefits such as increased steel production capacity and enhanced national security. However, the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) has raised concerns about national security risks.
2. **Title:** Nippon Steel’s U.S. Steel Acquisition Plan Referred to Biden for Review — Update
**URL:** [marketscreener.com]
https://www.marketscreener.com
**Summary:** Nippon Steel’s plan to acquire United States Steel has been referred to President Biden for review after a government panel failed to reach a consensus. Nippon Steel is confident that the transaction should be approved if evaluated fairly, citing steps taken to address national security concerns. However, the White House has reiterated Biden’s position that U.S. Steel should be domestically owned and operated.
3. **Title:** Biden to decide on sale of U.S. Steel to Nippon Steel within 15 days
**URL:** [marketscreener.com]https://www.marketscreener.com
**Summary:** A U.S. panel of federal agencies has failed to reach a consensus on the $14.1 billion sale of United States Steel Corp. to Nippon Steel Corp., leaving the final decision to President Joe Biden. According to the Treasury Department, Biden must announce a decision within 15 days. Nippon Steel has stated that the acquisition will make U.S. Steel more globally competitive and create the world’s third-largest steel producer by volume.
4. **Title:** Nippon Steel’s US Steel bid referred to Biden decision
**URL:** [nz.news.yahoo.com](https://nz.news.yahoo.com
**Summary:** Nippon Steel’s $15 billion bid for US Steel has been referred to US President Joe Biden, who has 15 days to decide on the deal. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) referred the bid to Biden after being unable to reach a consensus. Nippon Steel has urged Biden to approve the deal, citing efforts to address national security concerns and grow US Steel.
5. **Title:** Nippon Steel’s $14.9 Billion Gamble: A Merger in Peril
**URL:** [devdiscourse.com](https://www.devdiscourse.com)
**Summary:** Nippon Steel’s $14.9 billion acquisition of U.S. Steel is facing significant hurdles due to national security concerns. A letter obtained by Reuters suggests that President Biden may block the merger due to unresolved security risks. Despite three revamped proposals, the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) remains divided.
*Generated by AI at AskNews on December 24, 2024 12:58 PM. Wanna see more? Checkout our custom written stories and state of the art Event Tracking https://asknews.app*
Summarizing outside newsfeed: “The potential acquisition of U.S. Steel by Nippon Steel, valued between $14.1 billion and $15 billion, is currently under review by U.S. President Joe Biden following a lack of consensus from the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS). The proposal has faced national security concerns, with Biden previously expressing opposition, favoring domestic ownership of U.S. Steel. Despite Nippon Steel’s claims of enhancing U.S. Steel’s global competitiveness and addressing security issues, the decision ultimately rests with Biden, who has 15 days to make a final determination. The outcome could significantly impact not only the steel industry but also U.S. national security strategies.”
Fact-checking news summary: Based on the summary provided, here is a list of specific facts along with evaluations of their correctness and relevance to the outcome:
1. **Fact**: The potential acquisition of U.S. Steel by Nippon Steel is valued between $14.1 billion and $15 billion.
– **Correctness**: True/False. (You would need to verify this valuation with reliable financial news sources or official announcements.)
– **Relevance**: False. (The specific valuation range does not directly impact the probability of the merger being announced before January 21, 2025.)
2. **Fact**: The acquisition is currently under review by U.S. President Joe Biden.
– **Correctness**: True/False. (This would need verification through current news updates or official White House communications.)
– **Relevance**: True. (The review process directly impacts the timing and probability of the merger announcement.)
3. **Fact**: The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) lacked consensus on this proposal.
– **Correctness**: True/False. (News reports or official CFIUS statements would be needed to verify this.)
– **Relevance**: True. (CFIUS’s stance affects the decision-making process and timeline.)
4. **Fact**: National security concerns have been raised regarding the merger.
– **Correctness**: True/False. (To verify, check reliable news on the CFIUS review or statements from government officials.)
– **Relevance**: True. (National security issues significantly influence the decision on foreign acquisitions of U.S. companies.)
5. **Fact**: President Biden has previously expressed opposition to the proposal.
– **Correctness**: True/False. (This would require confirmation from past statements by Biden or through reputable news analysis.)
– **Relevance**: True. (The President’s stance influences the likelihood of approval.)
6. **Fact**: Nippon Steel claims that the merger would enhance U.S. Steel’s global competitiveness and address security issues.
– **Correctness**: True/False. (Statements by Nippon Steel in press releases or during investor calls would need to be checked.)
– **Relevance**: False. (While these claims may be part of their lobbying efforts, they do not directly affect the timing of the announcement.)
7. **Fact**: President Biden has 15 days to make a final determination.
– **Correctness**: True/False. (Legal or procedural documents regarding the review timeline would confirm this.)
– **Relevance**: True. (The decision time frame is crucial to the likelihood of the merger announcement before the specified date.)
8. **Fact**: The outcome could significantly impact the steel industry and U.S. national security strategies.
– **Correctness**: True/False. (Business analysis and national security expert opinions could confirm these implications, though generally logical.)
– **Relevance**: True. (Implications for the industry and national security are integral to understanding the significance of the decision and pressures influencing the timeline.)
By knowing which facts correctly reflect the situation and their relevance, you can better assess the probability of the merger being announced before January 21, 2025.
Fact-checked summary: The probability of the U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel merger being announced before January 21, 2025, is influenced by several key factors. Firstly, the acquisition is currently under review by U.S. President Joe Biden, and this review process directly impacts the timeline and probability of an announcement. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) has not reached a consensus on the proposal, which affects the decision-making process and its timeline. National security concerns have been raised regarding the merger, significantly influencing the decision on foreign acquisitions of U.S. companies. President Biden’s previous opposition to the proposal also plays a crucial role in approval likelihood. Furthermore, the President has a 15-day timeframe to make a final determination, which is essential to the timing of the announcement. These factors highlight the complexity and potential delays in reaching a decision on the merger’s announcement.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.2. The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate of 0.2 is derived from the complexity and historical challenges of foreign acquisitions of U.S. companies, particularly in sensitive industries like steel. The necessity of a CFIUS consensus and President Biden’s approval are significant hurdles, with historical precedent suggesting that national security concerns often lead to delays or denials. Given President Biden’s past opposition to the proposal and the current lack of CFIUS consensus, the probability of an announcement before January 21, 2025, remains low.
Some potential divergent considerations that might effect the base rate: Factors that could cause the resolution to differ from the base rate include a rapid positive development in negotiations that address national security concerns or a shift in political climate that favors more lenient foreign acquisition policies. Changes in administrative priorities or geopolitical considerations could also accelerate the approval process. Additionally, new legal or policy frameworks that facilitate such mergers may arise unexpectedly, thereby increasing the likelihood of a favorable outcome within the specified timeframe.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) reaches a consensus on the proposal. (Likelihood: Unlikely)
– National security concerns are adequately addressed and mitigated. (Likelihood: Unlikely) – President Joe Biden approves the merger following the CFIUS recommendation. (Likelihood: Unlikely.
– A favorable announcement regarding the U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel merger is made before January 21, 2025. (Likelihood: Possible)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 4)
Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.15
Base rate: 0.2 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.07
Reverse Mellers: 0.24
Theory of Mind: 0.3 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.001
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Model value: 0.15
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews). A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The reasoning across the various AI-generated summaries highlights significant obstacles for the anticipated merger due to national security concerns, the lack of consensus from the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), and President Biden’s prior opposition. The complexity of the merger, coupled with the limited timeframe before January 21, 2025, exacerbates these challenges. Given these factors, a timely conclusion appears unlikely, especially considering historical difficulties in foreign acquisitions within sensitive sectors like the U.S. steel industry. However, the predictions could be inaccurate if there are unforeseen developments such as successful behind-the-scenes negotiations, shifts in political or geopolitical strategies, or new policies that facilitate foreign mergers. Such changes could potentially expedite the approval process and favorably alter the merger’s chances.
Given the agreement of the Dock Workers to salary increases, both union and the port will return to the bargaining table on Jan. 15, 2025 to discuss automation and other issues, what’s the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 45%, up from 43% yesterday.
Obtaining outside newsfeed from AskNews. Here are the current news articles relevant to the keywords “dock workers strike” from reliable sources:
1. **Title:** Amazon’s Teamsters strike enters 5th day at 4 Southern California warehouses
**URL:** [ocregister.com]https://www.ocregister.com
**Summary:** Amazon workers at four warehouses in Southern California went on strike on December 19, 2024, after the company ignored a deadline to negotiate fair contracts. The International Brotherhood of Teamsters, representing 1.3 million workers, claimed that Amazon refuses to recognize their union and negotiate in good faith. Teamsters General President Sean M. O’Brien stated, “The corporate elitists who run Amazon are leaving workers with no choice.” Amazon spokesperson Eileen Hards countered, saying that the Teamsters have “intentionally misled the public” and have engaged in “illegal” activities to coerce employees to join the union. The strike is part of a larger effort, with workers in Illinois and New York City also authorizing similar strikes. Union officials described the action as “the largest strike against Amazon in U.S. history.”
2. **Title:** From Amazon warehouse to port strikes, shippers and the DOT are preparing for an unpredictable 2025
**URL:** [nbcdfw.com](https://www.nbcdfw.com)
**Summary:** The logistics industry is bracing for another year of disruption in 2025, with supply chain strikes and labor battles poised to cause trade shocks. Amazon warehouse workers are striking, and a potential strike by dock workers at 36 ports could bring East and Gulf Coast ports to a standstill. The Department of Transportation’s real-time freight data platform, FLOW, tracks 75% of all container imports and 80% of U.S. container terminal capacity. Mike Short, president of global forwarding at C.H. Robinson, said, “We’re already helping shippers prepare for a potential U.S. port strike in January.”
3. **Title:** Thousands more NYC Amazon workers walk off job to join largest strike in company history
**URL:** [nbcnewyork.com](https://www.nbcnewyork.com)
**Summary:** Thousands of Amazon workers in New York City and other locations have gone on strike, joining the largest labor movement in the company’s history. The strike, which began on Staten Island, has added 5,500 workers to the movement, with the union representing nearly 10,000 workers at 10 Amazon facilities. The workers are demanding higher wages, better benefits, and safer working conditions. According to Vinnie Perrone, the president of a local Teamsters union, the strike will continue “as long as it takes.”
4. **Title:** Cops bust picket line as Teamsters strike seven Amazon warehouses
**URL:** [mronline.org](https://www.mronline.org)
**Summary:** Amazon warehouse workers and delivery drivers at seven facilities in the US are on strike, in what the Teamsters union says is the largest strike against Amazon in US history. The workers are demanding union recognition and better working conditions, including higher pay and safer working conditions. The strike’s timing is strategic, coinciding with the holiday season when package volumes balloon. Many workers are forced to work mandatory overtime, leading to burnout and injuries.
5. **Title:** NATIONAL NEWS – Amazon workers in Teamsters union strike days before Christmas
**URL:** [dcspotlight.com](https://www.dcspotlight.com)
**Summary:** The Teamsters union announced a strike by Amazon workers at seven major facilities, citing the company’s failure to meet a December 15 deadline for union contract negotiations. The strike, which is being called the largest against Amazon in U.S. history, involves nearly 10,000 workers at ten Amazon facilities. The Teamsters stated that the workers began picketing in cities like New York to amplify their demands, which Amazon has yet to respond meaningfully to.
*Generated by AI at AskNews on December 24, 2024 12:59 PM. Wanna see more? Checkout our custom written stories and state of the art Event Tracking https://asknews.app*
Summarizing outside newsfeed: “A series of strikes by Amazon warehouse workers, organized by the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, is ongoing, marking what is described as the largest strike against Amazon in U.S. history. This labor action, involving nearly 10,000 workers across several states, began after Amazon reportedly failed to meet a negotiation deadline for fair contracts, with demands for union recognition, higher pay, and better working conditions. The strikes, strategically coinciding with the peak holiday season, have affected multiple sites including New York and Southern California, with potential wider supply chain disruptions anticipated in 2025, including possible dock worker strikes. Amazon has countered the union’s claims, citing misleading tactics and illegal activities by the Teamsters.”
Fact-checking news summary: Here is a list of specific facts from the summary, along with their correctness and relevance to the original question:
1. **A series of strikes by Amazon warehouse workers is ongoing.**
– Correctness: True. There have been strikes and labor actions involving Amazon workers.
– Relevance: False. This fact is not directly about dock workers or their strike probability.
2. **These strikes are organized by the International Brotherhood of Teamsters.**
– Correctness: True. The Teamsters are involved with labor actions involving Amazon workers.
– Relevance: False. This does not relate to the dock workers’ situation directly.
3. **This represents the largest strike against Amazon in U.S. history.**
– Correctness: True/False. This could be true based on the number of workers and sites involved but would need specific verification.
– Relevance: False. It does not pertain to dock workers or their probability of striking.
4. **Nearly 10,000 workers across several states are involved.**
– Correctness: True/False. This could be true but requires specific verification.
– Relevance: False. This number of workers does not pertain to dock workers.
5. **Strikes began after Amazon reportedly failed to meet a negotiation deadline for fair contracts.**
– Correctness: True/False. This is plausible based on reported labor disputes but needs verification.
– Relevance: False. It pertains to Amazon, not dock workers.
6. **The strikes have demands for union recognition, higher pay, and better working conditions.**
– Correctness: True. These are common labor demands.
– Relevance: False. Although related to labor relations, it’s about Amazon workers, not dock workers.
7. **The strikes coincide with the peak holiday season.**
– Correctness: True/False. Could be true if strikes began during this time, needs further verification.
– Relevance: False. This timing is not directly relevant to dock worker negotiations.
8. **Strikes have affected multiple sites, including New York and Southern California.**
– Correctness: True. Strikes have been reported in major regions.
– Relevance: False. Locations do not directly influence dock workers’ probability of striking.
9. **Potential wider supply chain disruptions in 2025 are anticipated, including possible dock worker strikes.**
– Correctness: True/False. Anticipating disruptions can be projected, but it needs validation.
– Relevance: True. This is relevant as it connects with potential dock worker actions.
10. **Amazon has countered the union’s claims, citing misleading tactics and illegal activities by the Teamsters.**
– Correctness: True. Companies often respond in this manner during labor disputes.
– Relevance: False. This response is related to Amazon and does not provide insight into dock worker negotiations.
Overall, from the summary given, only fact 9 holds potential relevance to the specific question about dock workers, as it mentions possible dock worker strikes in 2025, which indicates a concern relevant to the query.
Fact-checked summary: Based on the fact-checking list, the only relevant true statement concerning the probability of a strike among US dock workers in Q1 2025 is the anticipation of potential wider supply chain disruptions in 2025, which includes possible dock worker strikes. This suggests that labor actions involving dock workers are being considered as a possibility, connecting to concerns about the likelihood of a strike.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.35. The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate of 0.35 is based on historical trends of labor actions in critical industries such as shipping and logistics. Labor unions in these sectors often leverage strikes to negotiate terms, but due to the significant economic impact, strikes are sometimes averted through last-minute negotiations or government intervention. The mention of potential wider supply chain disruptions suggests a context that may contribute to union actions including strikes. Given the fact that dock workers have shown readiness to strike in the past when their demands are unmet, a moderate likelihood is established.
Some potential divergent considerations that might effect the base rate: Factors that might cause deviation from this base rate include successful pre-strike negotiations resulting in a contract agreement that reduces the likelihood of a strike. Alternatively, substantial government intervention might also mitigate the strike risk, especially if the potential disruptions are deemed to have a significant economic impact. Additionally, a strategic shift in supply chain logistics by companies to reduce dependence on at-risk docks could also diminish the dock workers’ leverage.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Negotiation breakdown between dock workers’ unions and port authorities or employers. (Likely)
– Lack of government intervention or failure to mediate effectively in time. (Somewhat likely)
– Significant unresolved grievances among the dock workers leading to strong support for a strike. (Likely)
– Insufficient mitigation of potential supply chain disruptions by companies relying on docks. (Somewhat likely)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.65 – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.45 – confidence: 7)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.4 – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.45
Base rate: 0.35 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.11
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.43
Reverse Mellers: 0.47
Theory of Mind: 0.45 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.17
Close Type: B (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Model value: 0.45
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews). A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The risk of a dock workers’ strike in Q1 2025 stems from various factors, including unresolved automation concerns set for negotiation on January 15, 2025, and historical precedence of strikes over such issues. A partially settled salary agreement and potential supply chain disruptions give unions leverage, increasing the risk of strike action during this period. While the recent salary agreement could potentially alleviate some tension, the possibility of government intervention, successful negotiations, and alternative dispute resolution methods could prevent a strike. The short timeframe in Q1 2025 intensifies the likelihood if early negotiations falter. Ultimately, the outcome will depend on the progress of these discussions and external interventions, including government actions and strategic adjustments in logistics that may affect union leverage.
How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today,
* less than 172: 15%
* between 172 and 205: 40%
* between 206 and 240: 35%
* more than 240: 10%
Obtaining outside newsfeed from AskNews. Here are the current news articles relevant to the keywords “Conservative Party Canada election” from reliable sources:
1. **Title:** Canada’s Trudeau faces increasing pressure from his own MPs to quit
**URL:** [geo.tv](https://www.geo.tv)
**Summary:** Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is facing increasing pressure from his own Liberal Party members to step down due to the party’s poor performance in the polls. Over 50 Liberal members from Ontario have agreed that Trudeau should resign, with one legislator stating, ‘There is no alternative but to have the leadership change now.’ However, Trudeau shows no intention of leaving soon, and the party is considering potential successors, including former finance minister Chrystia Freeland and Foreign Minister Melanie Joly. The opposition parties are calling for an election to produce a stable government, citing the incoming US administration’s promise to impose a 25% tariff on Canadian imports. Polls show the Liberals would be crushed by the official opposition Conservatives in an election.
**Published:** December 23, 2024
2. **Title:** 2025: the year the Conservative Party of B.C. redefined conservatism
**URL:** [kimberleybulletin.com]https://www.kimberleybulletin.com
**Summary:** John Rustad, the leader of the Conservative Party of B.C., reflected on the 2024 election, where his party made significant gains but ultimately fell short of winning power. Despite losing the Surrey-Guildford riding by 22 votes, the Conservatives held 44 seats and secured 43.28% of the popular vote, the highest number of candidates elected in the party’s history. Rustad acknowledged that the party’s message resonated with voters, particularly those seeking change and affordability, but noted that the party’s lack of focus and the presence of B.C. United until late summer may have contributed to their loss.
**Published:** December 23, 2024
3. **Title:** Liberal push to oust Trudeau gains momentum in Ontario, CBC says
**URL:** [arcamax.com]https://www.arcamax.com
**Summary:** More than 50 Liberal Party members of parliament from Ontario have come to a consensus that Justin Trudeau must step down as prime minister, according to the Canadian Broadcasting Corp. This represents about a third of the Liberal caucus, which has 153 seats in Canada’s House of Commons. However, there is no formal mechanism for Liberal lawmakers to eject their leader or trigger a contest. Chandra Arya, an Ottawa-area Liberal lawmaker, said, ‘The die is cast, with the Conservatives, Bloc Quebecois and the NDP all saying they want to vote down the current prime minister.’
**Published:** December 22, 2024
4. **Title:** Canada’s 2025 Elections: A Crucial Year Amidst Conservative Rise and Growing Concerns
**URL:** [ledevoir.com](https://www.ledevoir.com)
**Summary:** According to Jagmeet Singh, leader of the New Democratic Party, ‘there is a big challenge ahead of us with the rise of conservatives.’ 2025 will be a crucial year for Canada, marked by new elections, in which the Conservative Party is currently leading in the polls. Singh attributes the growing concerns about the cost of living, including groceries, housing, and healthcare, to inflation and the crisis, which make people more vulnerable and push them towards divisive political parties.
**Published:** December 14, 2024
5. **Title:** 2025 Canada Federal Election Odds – Conservatives to Regain Power?
**URL:** [thesportsgeek.com](https://www.thesportsgeek.com)
**Summary:** The 2025 Canada federal election odds are predicting a massive win for the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre. The party has been gaining momentum due to Justin Trudeau’s missteps, including broken conflict of interest rules and the SNC-Lavalin scandal. The Liberals, on the other hand, are struggling to regain confidence, with many calling for Trudeau to step down as leader. The election is scheduled to take place in October 2025, with the Conservatives currently having a 90.9% implied probability of winning.
**Published:** December 03, 2024
*Generated by AI at AskNews on December 24, 2024 01:00 PM. Wanna see more? Checkout our custom written stories and state of the art Event Tracking https://asknews.app*
Summarizing outside newsfeed: “Recent reports indicate that Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faces growing pressure from within his Liberal Party to resign, with a considerable number of MPs from Ontario advocating for a leadership change. This internal dissent is occurring as the opposition Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, gains ground in the polls ahead of the 2025 federal election. Factors such as inflation and a rising cost of living appear to be driving public support towards the Conservatives. In British Columbia, the Conservative Party of B.C. has also made significant electoral progress. The overall political climate suggests potential shifts in power, as the Conservatives are predicted to have a strong chance of winning in the upcoming election, amid dissatisfaction with Trudeau’s leadership and recent controversies affecting the Liberal Party.”
Fact-checking news summary: Let’s break down the summary into specific facts and evaluate their correctness and relevance to the original question about how many seats the Conservative Party will win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election:
1. **Fact:** Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faces growing pressure from within his Liberal Party to resign.
**Correctness:** True. There have been reports of internal discontent within the Liberal Party regarding Trudeau’s leadership.
**Relevance:** True. Trudeau’s internal party issues could affect the election outcome and consequently impact the number of seats won by the opposition.
2. **Fact:** A considerable number of MPs from Ontario are advocating for a leadership change in the Liberal Party.
**Correctness:** Partially true. It is reported that some Liberal MPs have expressed concerns about leadership, but the extent or specific number focusing solely on Ontario is unclear.
**Relevance:** True. Internal advocacy for leadership change can influence public perception and electoral outcomes.
3. **Fact:** The opposition Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, is gaining ground in the polls ahead of the 2025 federal election.
**Correctness:** True. As of the latest data, the Conservative Party has shown an upward trend in polls.
**Relevance:** True. Poll standings are a direct indicator of potential seat winnings in an election.
4. **Fact:** Inflation and a rising cost of living are driving public support towards the Conservatives.
**Correctness:** True. Economic issues like inflation can affect voter preferences, and they have been noted as reasons for shifting support in Canada.
**Relevance:** True. Economic factors are significant in determining electoral outcomes and could influence the number of seats the Conservatives win.
5. **Fact:** In British Columbia, the Conservative Party of B.C. has made significant electoral progress.
**Correctness:** False. The Conservative Party of B.C. is not directly related to the federal Conservative Party led by Pierre Poilievre, as they are separate entities. This statement may confuse provincial politics with federal politics.
**Relevance:** False. Provincial party performance does not directly correlate with federal elections unless contextualized properly.
6. **Fact:** The overall political climate suggests potential shifts in power, with Conservatives having a strong chance of winning the upcoming election.
**Correctness:** True. Political analysis indicates dissatisfaction with the current leadership, suggesting a favorable climate for opposition parties like the Conservatives.
**Relevance:** True. This general assessment is relevant to predicting the outcome and seat distribution for the next election.
7. **Fact:** Dissatisfaction with Trudeau’s leadership and recent controversies are affecting the Liberal Party.
**Correctness:** True. Trudeau has faced criticism over various issues during his tenure, impacting the party’s image.
**Relevance:** True. The popularity of the incumbent can significantly affect electoral results, influencing the number of seats won by the opposition.
The majority of the facts provided are internally consistent and relevant to the potential outcome of the number of seats the Conservative Party may win. However, claims about the Conservative Party of B.C. making significant progress were both incorrect and irrelevant concerning the federal election context.
Fact-checked summary: The Conservative Party of Canada, led by Pierre Poilievre, is showing an upward trend in polls ahead of the 2025 federal election, which could indicate a potential increase in the number of seats they win. Economic issues like inflation and the rising cost of living are driving public support towards the Conservatives, significantly affecting voter preferences and potential election outcomes. Additionally, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is facing growing pressure within his Liberal Party to resign, and there is dissatisfaction with his leadership, affecting the party’s public image. These factors contribute to a political climate that suggests a strong chance for the Conservatives to gain seats, possibly due to internal discontent within the Liberal Party and a shift in public sentiment towards the opposition.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.25, “between 172 and 205”: 0.45, “between 206 and 240”: 0.25, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.15, “between 172 and 205”: 0.4, “between 206 and 240”: 0.35, “more than 240”: 0.1] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.05, “between 172 and 205”: 0.25, “between 206 and 240”: 0.4, “more than 240”: 0.3] – confidence: 7)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* less than 172: 0.15
* between 172 and 205: 0.4
* between 206 and 240: 0.35
* more than 240: 0.1
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews). A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The predictions regarding the Conservative Party of Canada’s performance in the upcoming federal election under Pierre Poilievre’s leadership highlight a favorable momentum, driven by economic concerns like inflation and public dissatisfaction with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s leadership. The Conservatives are expected to gain seats due to the Liberal Party’s internal struggles and the current political climate’s favor towards opposition parties. However, these forecasts might not hold if there are significant changes before the election, such as internal changes within the Liberals, economic improvement, or other unforeseen events that could alter public sentiment. Additionally, typical patterns in Canadian voting behavior and the historical tendency of political sentiment to shift suggest that predicting the exact number of seats is challenging, and swings could range widely if new developments occur.
Runtime: 175 seconds for all three forecast topics on this age.
Past Multi-AI Oracle Forecasts
Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports
Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
