Israel/Hamas Ceasefire? Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman’s forecast, July 23, 2025

Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of July 2025?

10–12 minutes read time

Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts 26%. Here’s how it reached this answer:

Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: Israel Hamas ceasefire July 2025
News from various sources:

The content extracted from the web page primarily discusses the aftermath of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas that ended in March 2025. Since then, Israel has conducted widespread demolitions in the Gaza Strip, with thousands of buildings destroyed in several towns and suburbs, including Rafah and Khuza’a. The demolitions were conducted through controlled explosions and other methods, ostensibly targeting areas where Hamas was allegedly operating or concealing military assets. The IDF cites security concerns and military necessity as justifications for their actions, while legal experts and analysts argue these might amount to war crimes under the Geneva Convention, as they result in large-scale destruction of civilian infrastructure.

The demolitions are part of a controversial strategy that includes creating militarized zones and buffer areas, and developing a “humanitarian city” to confine displaced Palestinians. Plans for this city, and the ongoing destruction, have been widely criticized, including comparisons to past historical events due to the humanitarian ramifications.
The article also notes the IDF received bulldozers from the US and that there are new advertisements seeking demolition contractors for work in Gaza, indicating continued escalation.

Locals face severe hardships as their homes and essential services are demolished. For example, Moataz Yousef Ahmed Al-Absi has lost a newly-built home, leaving him and others without shelter amidst the demolitions.
This situation highlights significant international and humanitarian concerns about the consequences of the ongoing conflict in Gaza.

Fact-checking news summary:

1. **Fact**: A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas ended in March 2025.
– **Correctness**: Unable to verify (True/False not determined without additional sources).
– **Importance**: Critical. This fact sets the stage for the current situation and the potential for a new ceasefire.
– **Relevance**: True. Directly relates to the possibility of another ceasefire being declared.
2. **Fact**: Israel has conducted widespread demolitions in the Gaza Strip with thousands of buildings destroyed in towns like Rafah and Khuza’a.
– **Correctness**: Unable to verify (True/False not determined without additional sources).
– **Importance**: Important. Demonstrates the ongoing conflict and tensions between Israel and Hamas.
– **Relevance**: True. Provides context for prediction regarding future ceasefires.
3. **Fact**: The demolitions were conducted through controlled explosions targeting areas with alleged Hamas activity.
– **Correctness**: Unable to verify (True/False not determined without additional sources).
– **Importance**: Important. Indicates military actions that may impact peace negotiations.
– **Relevance**: True. Relevant to assessing military strategies affecting ceasefire prospects.
4. **Fact**: The IDF claimed security concerns and military necessity as justifications for their actions.
– **Correctness**: Unable to verify (True/False not determined without additional sources).
– **Importance**: Important. Offers insight into Israel’s rationale for continuing operations.
– **Relevance**: True. Impacts understanding of Israel’s position in any peace talks.
5. **Fact**: Legal experts and analysts argue the demolitions may amount to war crimes under the Geneva Convention.
– **Correctness**: Claims by legal experts are opinions, hence cannot be strictly labeled as true/false.
– **Importance**: Important. Raises legal and ethical questions that may affect international relations.
– **Relevance**: True. Potential impact on international pressure for a ceasefire.
6. **Fact**: The strategy includes creating militarized zones and a “humanitarian city” to confine displaced Palestinians.
– **Correctness**: Unable to verify (True/False not determined without additional sources).
– **Importance**: Important. Highlights the humanitarian situation that could influence ceasefire discussions.
– **Relevance**: True. Directly affects humanitarian considerations, impacting ceasefire options.
7. **Fact**: The IDF received bulldozers from the US and there are new advertisements seeking demolition contractors for Gaza.
– **Correctness**: Unable to verify (True/False not determined without additional sources).
– **Importance**: Lesser. Indicates escalation but not critical to the imminent predictability of a ceasefire.
– **Relevance**: True. Suggests continuation of operations that may hinder ceasefire prospects.
8. **Fact**: Locals face severe hardships due to demolitions with specific mention of Moataz Yousef Ahmed Al-Absi losing his home.
– **Correctness**: Specific personal accounts are challenging to verify without direct reporting.
– **Importance**: Lesser. Demonstrates human impact but less crucial for determining ceasefire trajectory.
– **Relevance**: True. Contributes to understanding the humanitarian impact affecting peace talks.
9. **Fact**: There are significant international and humanitarian concerns about the consequences of ongoing conflict in Gaza.
– **Correctness**: Likely true, based on historical patterns and global awareness of such conflicts.
– **Importance**: Important. These concerns can shape international intervention and mediation efforts.
– **Relevance**: True. Directly relevant to the prospects of negotiation and potential ceasefire.
Given this analysis, each fact is crafted to provide a holistic understanding of the situation, though verifications depend on current and more specific data.

Fact-checked summary:
Based on available information, significant international and humanitarian concerns exist regarding the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas. These concerns are undeniably relevant, as they can influence international intervention and mediation efforts, impacting the likelihood of negotiating a ceasefire. However, the correctness of many specific details about events in Gaza, including widespread demolitions and military strategies, cannot be independently verified with the data provided. Legal experts have discussed potential implications under the Geneva Convention, raising questions that could pressure international stakeholders to push for peace. While these factors define the current environment and potential for future ceasefires, definitive statements about a ceasefire in July 2025 cannot be confirmed based on this information alone.

OpenAI gives a base rate of 30%
The question difficulty is rated 8 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
Frequency of ceasefires in past conflicts, 0.4
International mediation success rate, 0.3
Political shifts in the region, 0.3
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
Initial base rate of achieving a ceasefire is 0.3, taking historical factors into account. Adjusting for recent international pressure increases likelihood by 0.05 (15%), resulting in an updated probability of 0.345.
Bayesian base rate: 34.5%
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 0 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 0 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 90
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate was derived from historical frequencies of ceasefires between Israel and Hamas, considering mediation efforts’ past success, and potential political shifts in the region.

Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Access to classified intelligence might better inform the likelihood of a ceasefire. Opinions of key political analysts and military experts could also provide deeper insights.

Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Increased international media attention could pressure stakeholders into achieving a ceasefire, while entrenched political positions may halt progress towards peace.

The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Continued escalation of conflict between Israel and Hamas High
– Increased international pressure for peace Moderate
– Successful negotiation efforts by international mediators Moderate
– Shift in political positions or strategies by either Israel or Hamas Low
– Exhaustion of resources or political will on either side Low

Querying Claude (AI predicts: 12% – confidence: 6)

Querying Mistral (Error: Mistral is not returning an array)

Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 40% – confidence: 5)

Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.26
Base rate: 0.3 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.14
MAPD: 0
Confidence: 5.5
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.18
Reverse Mellers: 0.34
Theory of Mind: 0.25 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.59
Close Type: B (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 2
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>

Model value: 26%

The consensus among the AIs is that the likelihood of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas being declared within the remaining 8 days of July 2025 is low, given the historical base rate and the complexities involved in negotiating ceasefires. The key barriers are entrenched political positions, the need for comprehensive multilateral coordination, and the absence of recent verified news suggesting active negotiations. While international pressure and humanitarian concerns could spur rapid diplomacy, significant obstacles make achieving a ceasefire in such a compressed timeframe unlikely. However, the unpredictability inherent in conflict situations means that sudden changes in circumstances, such as major escalations, breakthroughs in negotiations, or shifts in political stances, could lead to unforeseen outcomes.

Runtime: 157 seconds.