Israel/Hamas Ceasefire? Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman’s forecast, Sept. 24, 2025

Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of September 2025?

Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts 15%

Here’s how it reached this answer:

10–13 minutes read

Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: Israel Hamas ceasefire 2025
News from various sources:

The content discusses events and developments surrounding the Israel-Hamas conflict and ceasefire attempts in 2025. Here are the key points:
1. **U.N. Security Council Ceasefire Resolution**: The U.S. vetoed a U.N. Security Council resolution that called for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. The U.S. described the resolution as “performative” and argued it was sympathetic to Hamas without sufficiently condemning Hamas’ atrocities against Israel. The U.S. maintained that Israel’s right to self-defense was not recognized.
2. **Israel’s Strikes in Qatar**: Israel conducted airstrikes in Doha, Qatar, targeting senior Hamas leadership. This marked a significant escalation as Qatar is a U.S. ally and had been mediating ceasefire negotiations. Israel claims responsibility for the strikes, which were authorized by U.S. President Donald Trump, despite subsequent U.S. criticism of the location of the attack.
3. **Political Backlash**: The strikes in Qatar were condemned by Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and other nations. The U.K. criticized it as a breach of Qatar’s sovereignty. The U.S. expressed disappointment, emphasizing that such actions do not advance Israeli or American goals. Qatar called for legal evaluation to respond to the attack.
4. **Failed Ceasefire Negotiations**: Attempts to broker a ceasefire have been challenging. Hamas rejected disarmament proposals, which are a key demand by Israel for ending hostilities. Trump’s frustration with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s actions and failed talks are highlighted.
5. **Broader Regional Implications**: The strikes have implications for regional geopolitics, notably straining relations with countries like Turkey, where anti-Israel sentiment is growing. Concerns have been raised about the potential for further Israeli military actions in the region.
6. **Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza**: The humanitarian situation in Gaza has been dire, with tens of thousands estimated dead due to the conflict. There are global calls for more humanitarian aid, and various nations have urged Israel to allow unrestricted aid access into Gaza.
7. **Recognition of Palestinian Statehood**: Several Western countries, including France and the U.K., have moved to recognize a Palestinian state, adding pressure on the region amidst ongoing talks and conflict.
Overall, the situation remains tense with significant international political maneuvering and differing perspectives on how to approach the conflict and potential ceasefire.

Fact-checking news summary:
**Fact 1: U.S. vetoed a U.N. Security Council resolution calling for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.**
– **Correctness**: True (historically, the U.S. has vetoed similar resolutions; internal consistency within the summary is maintained).
– **Importance**: Important (a veto by a Security Council member can prevent a resolution from being adopted).
– **Relevance**: True (directly pertains to whether a ceasefire is likely).
**Fact 2: Israel conducted airstrikes in Doha, Qatar, targeting senior Hamas leadership.**
– **Correctness**: False (as of my last update, there have been no reports of such airstrikes; this fact contradicts diplomatic norms and the usual U.S.-Qatar-Israel dynamics).
– **Importance**: Critical (such an event would heavily influence international relations and ceasefire discussions).
– **Relevance**: True (if true, it would impact ceasefire negotiations and regional diplomacy).
**Fact 3: Strikes in Qatar were condemned by various nations, including legal evaluations by Qatar.**
– **Correctness**: False (since Fact 2 is false, subsequent condemnations are baseless in this context).
– **Importance**: Important (condemnation reflects international response, which could affect diplomatic relations).
– **Relevance**: False (irrelevant due to the false initial premise of such strikes occurring).
**Fact 4: Hamas rejected disarmament proposals, a key demand for ending hostilities.**
– **Correctness**: True (Hamas has historically rejected Israeli demands for disarmament; internally consistent).
– **Importance**: Important (disarmament is central to any ceasefire negotiation).
– **Relevance**: True (direct relevance to the likelihood of a ceasefire being declared).
**Fact 5: Strikes have implications for regional geopolitics, particularly with countries like Turkey.**
– **Correctness**: True (any military action, especially in sensitive regions, impacts geopolitics).
– **Importance**: Important (regional dynamics play a significant role in the conflict’s broader context).
– **Relevance**: True (influences the broader geopolitical landscape and potential for ceasefire).
**Fact 6: Tens of thousands estimated dead in Gaza due to the conflict, with global calls for aid.**
– **Correctness**: Partially True (there is a significant humanitarian crisis in Gaza, but the exact numbers may vary and need confirmation).
– **Importance**: Important (a humanitarian crisis can spur international calls for ceasefire).
– **Relevance**: True (high relevance due to its impact on international pressure for a ceasefire).
**Fact 7: Several Western countries, including France and the U.K., have moved to recognize a Palestinian state.**
– **Correctness**: True (some Western countries have shown support for Palestinian statehood; however, the dynamics can change over time).
– **Importance**: Important (recognition affects political dynamics and could pressure peace efforts).
– **Relevance**: True (it adds pressure on conflict resolution and peace talks).
Overall, assessing the situation regarding the likelihood of a ceasefire requires considering these facts and understanding their implications on international diplomacy and regional stability.

Fact-checked summary:
In light of the question regarding the potential for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in September 2025, several relevant facts emerge. Historically, the U.S. has vetoed U.N. Security Council resolutions calling for a ceasefire, an important action as a veto from a permanent member can prevent resolutions from being adopted, directly impacting the likelihood of reaching a ceasefire. Hamas has consistently rejected Israeli demands for disarmament, which remains a central issue in ceasing hostilities, further complicating ceasefire negotiations. Additionally, any military actions in the region, particularly involving key countries like Turkey, have important implications for regional geopolitics, influencing the broader context in which a ceasefire might be considered. There exists a significant humanitarian crisis in Gaza, with global calls for aid, which is important as such crises can increase international pressure for a ceasefire. Furthermore, the movement by several Western
countries, including France and the U.K., to recognize a Palestinian state affects political dynamics and could pressure peace efforts, underlining its relevance to potential conflict resolution.

OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.1
The question difficulty is rated 7 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
0.30.40.20.1
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
Using the base rate of 0.1, I update this with current event factors. Assuming independent events, calculate probability ceasefire based on historical veto and disarmament likelihood and weights: P_ceasefire = 0.1 * (1 – 0.4 * 0.7) * (1 + 0.2 * 0.5) * (1 + 0.1 * 0.6) = 0.084
Bayesian base rate: 8.4% Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 6
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate was determined by examining historical data on similar ceasefire negotiations involving Israel and Hamas, factoring in political, military, and external influences. The history of U.S. vetoes, the entrenched positions of both parties, and international diplomatic trends were pivotal in establishing this estimate.

Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Additional insights from experts on Middle Eastern politics, context about current U.S. administration views, Israel’s internal politics, Hamas changes, and other regional players like Iran or Saudi Arabia would be valuable.

Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Potential changes in U.S. leadership or policy toward the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, unexpected diplomatic breakthroughs, or significant shifts in regional power dynamics could alter the base rate calculations significantly.

The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– U.N. Security Council resolution calling for a ceasefire is not vetoed unlikely
– Hamas agrees to some form of disarmament very unlikely
– Significant international pressure or mediation leads to negotiations somewhat likely
– Israel agrees to terms that Hamas finds acceptable unlikely
– U.S. or other significant actors change their stance on supporting a ceasefire unlikely

Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.05 – confidence: 7)

Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 3)

Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 4)

Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.15
Base rate: 0.1 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.05
MAPD: 0.066666666666667
Confidence: 4
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.07
Reverse Mellers: 0.24
Theory of Mind: 0.2 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.14
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>

Model value: 15%
The consensus among the AIs is that the likelihood of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas being declared in September 2025 is low. This prediction is based on historical data and several critical factors: the U.S. historically vetoing U.N. Security Council resolutions related to such ceasefires, Hamas’s refusal to disarm, and Israel’s firm stance. Even though international pressure due to humanitarian crises and recognition of Palestinian statehood exist, they are overshadowed by the lack of progress in negotiations, entrenched positions, and the absence of a viable mediation framework. The timeframe is particularly compressed, with only a few days left in September, which adds to the improbability unless there is a dramatic, unforeseen shift in dynamics, such as a sudden change in U.S. policy, diplomatic breakthroughs, or a significant escalation that forces immediate action.

Runtime: 316 seconds.