Will the Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza still be in effect on 31st December, 2025?
Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts today: 35%
10–12 minutes read
Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: Israel Hamas ceasefire Gaza
News from various sources:
In recent developments regarding the conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, the Israeli military has reported the killing of over 40 Palestinian militants within the past week. These operations focused on dismantling the extensive tunnel networks near Rafah in the Gaza Strip, which have been used by Hamas for various military purposes.
Negotiations are ongoing concerning the fighters remaining in these tunnels, and Hamas has publicly requested mediating countries to ensure their safe passage, marking the first acknowledgment from the group regarding their situation. The US-brokered ceasefire, which took effect on October 10, 2023, involves Israel withdrawing to a demarcated line within Gaza. However, the ceasefire remains fragile due to mutual accusations of violations and a continuing humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
Additionally, as part of the ceasefire agreement mediated by the US, Egypt, Turkey, and Qatar, Israel has returned 345 Palestinian bodies to Gaza. This is in line with the condition of returning 15 Palestinian bodies for each recovered Israeli hostage. The ceasefire agreement anticipates further stages, including the deployment of an International Stabilization Force to maintain security and oversee the disarmament of Hamas, a pivotal demand from Israel. Discussions on advancing to the next phases involve high-level communications between Turkey, Qatar, and Egypt.
The conflict began following an attack by Hamas on October 7, 2023, which led to significant casualties on both sides, with over 1,200 people killed by Palestinian militants in southern Israel and at least 70,103 people reported killed in Gaza due to Israeli military actions.
Fact-checking news summary:
1. **Fact**: The Israeli military has reported the killing of over 40 Palestinian militants within the past week.
– **True/False**: Specific numbers may vary, but such reports are common in conflict situations. **True** if corroborated by reliable sources.
– **Importance**: Lesser importance.
– **Relevance**: True.
2. **Fact**: Israeli operations have focused on dismantling tunnel networks near Rafah in the Gaza Strip.
– **True/False**: The focus on tunnels is a consistent strategy used by Israel. **True** if specific reports align.
– **Importance**: Important.
– **Relevance**: True.
3. **Fact**: Hamas has requested mediating countries to ensure safe passage for fighters in tunnels.
– **True/False**: Such requests align with previous actions by Hamas. **True** if current context supports it.
– **Importance**: Lesser importance.
– **Relevance**: False (not directly affecting the ceasefire by end 2025).
4. **Fact**: The US-brokered ceasefire took effect on October 10, 2023.
– **True/False**: This would need verification from multiple credible news outlets. **True** if confirmed.
– **Importance**: Important.
– **Relevance**: True.
5. **Fact**: The ceasefire involves Israel withdrawing to a demarcated line within Gaza.
– **True/False**: Requires verification of ceasefire details. **True** if reported in official documents.
– **Importance**: Important.
– **Relevance**: True.
6. **Fact**: The ceasefire remains fragile due to accusations of violations and a humanitarian crisis.
– **True/False**: Indicative of a general pattern in such situations. **True** if incidents are reported.
– **Importance**: Important.
– **Relevance**: True.
7. **Fact**: As part of the ceasefire, Israel has returned 345 Palestinian bodies to Gaza.
– **True/False**: This would be a noteworthy event and requires verification. **True** if reported by credible sources.
– **Importance**: Lesser importance.
– **Relevance**: False.
8. **Fact**: The condition was returning 15 Palestinian bodies for each recovered Israeli hostage.
– **True/False**: This is plausible but needs cross-checking. **True** if sources confirm.
– **Importance**: Lesser importance.
– **Relevance**: False.
9. **Fact**: The ceasefire agreement anticipates an International Stabilization Force to oversee disarmament.
– **True/False**: Check with ceasefire terms and international plans. **True** if documented.
– **Importance**: Critical.
– **Relevance**: True.
10. **Fact**: High-level communications about the ceasefire involve Turkey, Qatar, and Egypt.
– **True/False**: These countries often play mediating roles. **True** if corroborated.
– **Importance**: Important.
– **Relevance**: True.
11. **Fact**: The conflict began after an attack by Hamas on October 7, 2023.
– **True/False**: Needs historical verification. **True** if established by sources.
– **Importance**: Important.
– **Relevance**: True.
12. **Fact**: Over 1,200 people killed by Palestinian militants in southern Israel.
– **True/False**: Verification needed from casualty reports. **True** if reported accurately.
– **Importance**: Important.
– **Relevance**: True.
13. **Fact**: At least 70,103 people reported killed in Gaza due to Israeli military actions.
– **True/False**: This figure seems high and should be verified. **Potentially False** pending verification.
– **Importance**: Important.
– **Relevance**: True.
Fact-checked summary:
The US-brokered ceasefire took effect on October 10, 2023, and remains a significant development in the region. The ceasefire involves Israel withdrawing to a demarcated line within Gaza and anticipates an International Stabilization Force to oversee disarmament, with this aspect being critical to the ceasefire’s stability. However, the agreement remains fragile due to accusations of violations and ongoing humanitarian concerns. High-level communications about the ceasefire involve Turkey, Qatar, and Egypt, underlining the importance of international mediation. The conflict began following an attack by Hamas on October 7, 2023, resulting in over 1,200 deaths in southern Israel caused by Palestinian militants. Israeli operations have also continued to focus on dismantling tunnel networks near Rafah in the Gaza Strip, while incidents such as these highlight the ongoing tension and potential challenges to maintaining the ceasefire until the end of 2025.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.3 (30%)
The question difficulty is rated 8 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
0.20.50.3
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
Using the historical factors table, we consider each factor with its weight: 0.2 * 0.2 (previous ceasefires) + 0.5 * 0.3 (international coalition coordination) + 0.3 * 0.2 (disarmament success). This gives a Bayesian probability update to 0.22, adjusted considering current international involvement as moderately effective.
Bayesian base rate: 0.22
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: -729
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate was determined by examining events with historically similar ceasefire and stabilization processes in conflict zones. Limited historical success for prolonged ceasefire suggests a base rate around 0.3.
Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Additional insights into the political dynamics within involved countries, internal assessments on the success of the stabilization effort, and analysis of shifts in regional power balances.
Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Potential spoilers from hardline elements on either side, unexpected geopolitical events, or operations undermining the ceasefire could diverge the outcome from the base rate.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– The International Stabilization Force successfully overseeing disarmament in Gaza. Low
– Ceasefire violations are limited and international mediation is effective in addressing them. Moderate
– Continued engagement and cooperation from involved international parties such as the US, Turkey, Qatar, and Egypt. Moderate
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.25 – confidence: 4)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.45 – confidence: 4)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 5)
Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.35
Base rate: 0.3 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.08
MAPD: 0.13333333333333
Confidence: 4
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.29
Reverse Mellers: 0.4
Theory of Mind: 0.35 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.26
Close Type: B (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>
Model value: 35%
The assessment of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire from December 1-31, 2025, highlights a mix of stabilizing and destabilizing factors. While key international mediators, such as the US, Turkey, Qatar, and Egypt, contribute positively by supporting the agreement and overseeing disarmament through the International Stabilization Force, the ceasefire remains fragile. Historical data suggests that ceasefires similar in nature typically last 18-24 months, with a base success rate of 0.3, indicating potential instability as the ceasefire ages. Factors such as ongoing violations and accusations, continued military operations, and the complex dynamics involving non-state actors like Hamas exacerbate this fragility. However, war fatigue, potential economic incentives for peace, and effective international oversight could enhance durability beyond historical patterns. Yet, hardline factions, unexpected geopolitical developments, and potential failures in mediation and disarmament efforts pose
significant risks to the ceasefire’s sustainability.
Runtime: 197 seconds.
Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy ’s bots —>
Source: Aljazeera, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/10/9/map-of-gaza-shows-how-israeli-forces-will-withdraw-under-ceasefire-deal