Sudan updates from Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman, May 9, 2025

How many conflict deaths will there be in Sudan in 2025?

Jeremy’s most recent version of his Multi-AI Oracle is a side competitor with the machine forecasting bots of the VIEWS competition.

Here’s what Jeremy‘s latest version of his Multi-AI Oracle predicts:

Model value:
* Less than 1000: 1%
* Between 1000 and 3000: 5%
* Between 3000 and 5000: 10%
* Between 5000 and 8000: 24%
* Between 8000 and 12000: 30%
* More than 12000: 30%

Here’s how Jeremy’s Multi-AI Oracle says it arrived at these probabilities:

Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: Sudan conflict deaths 2025
Results from around the web: {think}

 Okay, so the user is asking about current web results related to ACLED Sudan 2025 deaths. Let me start by looking at the provided search results to see what information is available.

First, I see that the search results include data from ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project) as of late 2024 and early 2025. The main points mention over 28,700 reported fatalities by November 2024, with over 7,500 civilians killed directly. There’s also a mention of a study suggesting the actual death toll could be as high as 150,000. Additionally, displacement figures are provided, with over 14 million displaced, about 30% of Sudan’s population.

The user wants a summary of contents from relevant sites, tables of data, and a time series if possible. The search results don’t have explicit time series data, but there’s a breakdown by region in the third quarter 2024 report from ACLED. For example, Khartoum had 593 incidents leading to 763 deaths. I can structure this into a table.

Since the user asked for a time series with statistical measures, but the available data is limited to specific months and regions, I might need to extract what’s there. However, without monthly data, calculating change, mean, etc., isn’t feasible. So, I’ll focus on the available numbers and mention the lack of continuous time series data.

The sources provided are from ACLED, BBC, Associated Press, Science.org, and others. I need to cite these appropriately. The user also wants URLs listed at the end, so I’ll compile those from the search results.
I should structure the answer with a summary first, then tables for fatalities and regional breakdowns. Since time series data isn’t fully available, I’ll explain that. Finally, list the sources used. Make sure to follow all formatting rules: use headers, tables, and citations properly.

ACLED data and independent analyses highlight the severe human toll of Sudan’s ongoing conflict as of 2025. Key findings include:

### Reported Fatalities
– **28,700+ total deaths** recorded by ACLED through November 2024[1][2]
– **7,500+ civilian deaths** from direct attacks[1][4]
– **150,000 estimated deaths** in some independent analyses[3]

### Displacement Crisis
– **14 million displaced** (30% of population)[1][2]
– **50% of population** requiring humanitarian aid[1]

### Regional Breakdown (Q3 2024)

*Source: ACLED Q3 2024 report[5]*

### Mortality Analysis Challenges
– Satellite imagery and modeling used to estimate uncounted deaths[3]
– Underreporting due to:
– Restricted access to conflict zones
– Destruction of health infrastructure
– Displacement of monitoring organizations

### Temporal Patterns
Available ACLED data doesn’t provide continuous time series for detailed statistical analysis. Quarterly reports show:
– **Q3 2024**: 2,200+ fatalities across all regions[5]
– **November 2024**: Peak monthly death toll (~3,100)[1]
—
**Sources**
1. [ACLED Conflict Watchlist 2025: Sudan] (https://acleddata.com/conflict-watchlist-2025/sudan/)
2. [ACLED Sudan Country Hub] (https://acleddata.com/africa/horn-of-africa/sudan/)
3. [Science.org mortality analysis](https://www.science.org/content/article/how-many-have-died-sudan-s-civil-war-satellite-images-and-models-offer-clues)
4. [HDX Conflict Data] (https://data.humdata.org/dataset/sudan-acled-conflict-data)
5. [Q3 2024 Incident Report] (https://www.ecoi.net/en/file/local/2121592/2024q3Sudan_en.pdf)

OpenAI gives a base rate of contextual likelihood based on historical data (Carolyn’s note: OpenAI failed to return a value. See the Bayesian base rate below.)
The question difficulty is rated 7 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
Reported deaths in previous years, 0.4
Accuracy of historical conflict data, 0.2
Continued access to conflict zones, 0.2
Independent analysis projections, 0.2

A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
To calculate the Bayesian probability, consider the prior probability (historical factors base rate) and modify it based on expected data collection improvements. Starting with a base rate of 0.9, adjust by likely improvements in data reporting (0.1), yield a Bayesian estimate of 0.91.
Bayesian base rate: 0.91
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: reference_class
Expected time (days) until question close: 240 (Carolyn‘s note: the actual number is 236.)

The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate considers historical data from 2024 showing a culmination of reported deaths up to over 28,700, with the understanding that actual deaths could be significantly higher, as suggested by independent analyses.
Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
More granular monthly data would enable a more precise time series analysis for 2025. Access to localized reports and firsthand interviews would provide deeper insights.

Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Access to conflict areas might deteriorate, affecting data accuracy, or unexpected peace developments could alter the death toll count significantly.

The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
Continued reporting and gathering of reliable data on fatalities from Sudan in 2025 almost certain – Publication of a summary by ACLED or similar organizations of total fatalities for 2025 likely – Stability or cessation of current conflict leading to a final mortality count possible.

Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.05, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.15, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.3, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.35, “More than 12000”: 0.14] – confidence: 6)

Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.05, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.1, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.24, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.3, “More than 12000”: 0.3] – confidence: 7)

Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.05, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.1, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.2, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.3, “More than 12000”: 0.34] – confidence: 7)

Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 7
MAPD: Avg: 0.044444444444444, Max: 0.13333333333333
# LLM responses: 3

Model value:
* Less than 1000: 1%
* Between 1000 and 3000: 5%
* Between 3000 and 5000: 10%
* Between 5000 and 8000: 24%
* Between 8000 and 12000: 30%
* More than 12000: 30%

The projections indicate ongoing high levels of conflict in Sudan, with over 28,700 reported deaths in 2024 and an expectation that fatalities will likely exceed 12,000 in 2025. Predictions draw on historical data and highlight the intense conflict, notably in regions like Khartoum. However, there are significant risks and uncertainties that could impact these figures. These include potential peace agreements, escalation in conflict, worsening humanitarian conditions, and reporting inaccuracies due to limited access and possible underreporting. While estimates suggest the actual death toll might be much higher, possibly as much as 150,000, the accuracy of these numbers is contingent on several volatile factors, including changes in reporting methodologies and access to troubled areas.

Runtime: 68 seconds.

Past forecasts on Sudan’s conflict fatalities —>

Guide to Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports (some of these only apply to older versions)
Bayesian calculation: a mathematical technique that helps determine the conditional probability of an event based on prior knowledge and new evidence.
MAPD: Mean Absolute Percentage Deviation calculates the average percentage difference between actual values and predicted values, providing a relative measure of error.
Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate, but sometimes it fails to calculate this. Additionally, we calculate a Bayesian base rate which takes into account recent data. These results are sometimes different.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Revers

Background on VIEWS: Near the end of 2024, the latest forecasting competition of the Violence and Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS) was launched. On Dec. 4, 2024, during a telecon, a group of machine forecasting experts involved in VIEWS observed Jeremy’s demonstration of his Multi-AI Oracle. Although it was too late for Jeremy to sign up as a VIEWS competitor, they urged him to run a side competition for everyone’s benefit. Jeremy chose their Sudan conflict deaths question. Currently, the average of the twenty VIEWS competitors predict that Sudan conflict deaths will decrease sharply this year, with only 866 conflict deaths predicted for May 2025, as shown  below.



Background on the Sudan conflict, as evaluated by the team of Jeremy Lichtman and Carolyn Meinel:
(1) The importance of the Sahel, a region in Africa that includes Sudan:
Why the Sahel Actually Matters (Possibly To You, Too)
(2) April 29, 2024: Today, a Russian diplomat is negotiating gold mining with the Sudanese Minister of Minerals.
(3) June 3, 2024: Today the African Union Announced Plans to Mediate in Sudan’s Civil War
(4) Sept. 11, 2024 Over 100K starvation deaths 96% likely in Sudan by 1 Jan 2025

Below, map of control in Sudan’s civil war as of April 15, 2025.

Below, before and after pictures of the devastation of the civil war in Sudan.

https://www.alnilin.com/
https://www.alrakoba.net/
https://www.altaghyeer.info/ar/
https://www.altaghyeer.info/en/
https://www.alttahrer.com/
https://www.alzaeemsd.com/
https://www.assayha.net
https://www.cover-sd.com/
https://kushnews.net/
https://rakobanews.com
https://www.sudanakhbar.com/
https://sudanjem.com/
https://suna-sd.net/en
https://sudantimes.net/
https://www.sudantribune.net/
https://www.sudantribune.com/
https://sudaneseonline.com/
https://www.sudanile.com/
https://sudanow-magazine.net/
https://www.sudaress.com/
https://www.tagpress.net/