Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of May 2025?
Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai bot predicts 15%
Here’s how it reached this answer:
Perplexity response:
{think}
Okay, let’s tackle this question about whether a ceasefire will be declared between Israel and Hamas in June 2025. The user is a superforecaster needing a detailed rundown of relevant news. Let me start by going through the provided search results to extract the most recent and pertinent information.`
First, looking at each source:
1. **Wikipedia (May 29, 2025)**: Talks about the March 2025 airstrikes by Israel, breaking the ceasefire. The UN Resolution 2735 on June 10 backs a May 31 proposal, Israel’s acceptance, and Hamas’s amendments. Israel denies agreeing to end the war before goals are met. The U.S. calls Hamas’s amendments unworkable. Hamas later denies adding new ideas. By June 21, Hamas emphasizes stopping the war, while Netanyahu pushes for a partial ceasefire.
2. **YouTube (May 31, 2025)**: Hamas responds to a U.S. proposal by Steve Witkoff, backed by Israel. They want a permanent end and Israeli withdrawal, including releasing hostages and allowing aid. They mention 10 living hostages and 18 bodies in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. Hamas insists on a permanent ceasefire and withdrawal.
3. **Counter Extremism Project (May 29, 2025)**: Mentions past ceasefire negotiations, like a 2015 10-15 year truce discussion (denied by Netanyahu) and a 2017 offer by Hamas for a long-term ceasefire in exchange for lifting the blockade.
4. **CAMERA (June 4, 2025)**: Highlights that media coverage of the ceasefire might downplay Hamas’s role as terrorists, but no new info on June ceasefire progress.
5. **Foreign Policy (May 29, 2025)**: Discusses Trump’s invitation to Netanyahu, but the link seems broken. The initial part talks about the March 2025 ceasefire rupture, affecting comprehensive agreements.
Now, synthesizing the key points:
– Recent UN Resolution (June 10, 2025) supports the May 31 proposal, which Israel accepted. Hamas proposed amendments, which the U.S. deemed unworkable. Hamas and Israel have conflicting positions on the scope (permanent vs. partial ceasefire) and troop withdrawals.
– Hamas’s response (May 31) includes releasing hostages and bodies in exchange for prisoners, but insists on full withdrawal and permanent ceasefire. Israel, under Netanyahu, rejects this, aiming for a partial ceasefire without ending the war.
– Past attempts at long-term ceasefires (2015, 2017) were stalled due to political disagreements, indicating a pattern of challenges.
– The latest updates by June 24 (from Wikipedia) show Hamas pushing for immediate cessation, while Netanyahu resists, suggesting ongoing negotiations but no agreement yet.
Since the user is asking about June 2025, the critical period is from May 31 to June 24. The UN resolution and subsequent responses are key. The U.S. response to Hamas’s amendments on June 11 (unworkable) and Hamas’s denial of adding new ideas, plus Israel’s refusal to accept terms, indicate that a full ceasefire in June is unlikely. However, partial measures like prisoner exchanges might proceed.
I need to present this info clearly, citing the most recent sources first. Highlight the dates, the proposals, responses from all parties, and the current impasse. Also, note past context to show recurring issues, but focus on June developments.
–
### **Prospects for June 2025 Ceasefire**
– **Partial Measures Likely**: The May 31 proposal’s second stage (prisoner exchanges) may advance, given Hamas’s conditional offer to release hostages for Palestinian detainees[2]. However, a **full ceasefire** faces barriers:
– **Hamas’s Red Lines**: Insists on permanent cessation and withdrawal, incompatible with Israel’s partial truce stance[1][2].
– **Credibility Issues**: Israel’s rejection of Hamas’s amendments reflects skepticism about guarantees, particularly demilitarization and PA governance[1][4].
– **U.S. Opposition**: Washington’s dismissal of Hamas’s amendments weakens prospects for broader agreement[1].
Historical precedents (2015-2017) show similar impasses due to core disagreements on sovereignty and security[3]. Current dynamics suggest **no comprehensive ceasefire by June 30**, but humanitarian pauses or prisoner swaps remain possible[1][2].
Grok response:
Below is a detailed rundown of the most relevant news and developments regarding the potential for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in June 2025. As your research assistant, I’ve focused on prioritizing the most recent sources, drawing from a variety of reputable news outlets, diplomatic reports, and public sentiment indicators. This question falls under a Political Event category, so I’ve emphasized recent negotiation updates, responses from both parties, and any expert opinions or data on progress. I’ve analyzed the available information up to the current date (June 4, 2025) and incorporated data from authoritative sources like U.S. diplomatic statements and international mediators.
First, as per my guidelines, here’s a curated list of 10 citations based on recent searches for relevant news. These include a mix of articles from established media outlets, diplomatic updates, and public discussions to provide balanced context. Each entry includes the title, a brief description, the date of publication, and a three-sentence summary of the relevant content.
### List of 10 Citations:
1. **Title:** Hamas pushes back on the latest Gaza ceasefire proposal offered by the U.S.
**Description:** An NPR article detailing Hamas’s rejection of a U.S.-backed ceasefire plan.
**Date:** June 1, 2025.
**Summary:** The article reports that Hamas has rejected key elements of a new White House proposal for a Gaza ceasefire, which Israel had accepted, calling it “unacceptable” according to U.S. officials. It highlights ongoing tensions, with mediators from the U.S., Egypt, and Qatar involved in revisions. This development underscores the challenges in reaching an agreement, as Hamas demands clearer guarantees for an end to hostilities.
2. **Title:** 2025 Gaza war ceasefire
**Description:** A Wikipedia page summarizing the history and status of ceasefire proposals in the Gaza conflict.
**Date:** Last updated May 28, 2025.
**Summary:** The page outlines a U.S.-led proposal involving a phased ceasefire, hostage exchanges, and Israeli withdrawal, which was initially accepted by Hamas in May 2024 but faced obstacles from both sides. It notes that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump has pressured Israel to accept similar deals, while accusing Hamas of hindering progress. This provides historical context, showing that negotiations have stalled multiple times due to demands for a permanent end to the war.
3. **Title:** Israel and Hamas at War
**Description:** A Reuters overview of ongoing developments in the Israel-Hamas conflict.
**Date:** June 4, 2025.
**Summary:** The article covers the latest diplomatic efforts, including a U.S. proposal for a temporary truce and hostage release, amid reports of continued military actions. It mentions Hamas’s insistence on modifications to the deal, which U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff has deemed incompatible. This update indicates no immediate breakthrough, with experts warning that stalled talks could prolong the conflict.
4. **Title:** Hamas responds to U.S. ceasefire proposal for Gaza
**Description:** An NPR report on Hamas’s official response to the latest ceasefire framework.
**Date:** May 31, 2025.
**Summary:** The piece details Hamas’s conditional agreement to release hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, but it emphasizes disagreements over the duration of the ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal. U.S. officials expressed frustration, stating that Hamas’s additions complicate mediation efforts. This reflects a pattern of incremental progress mixed with setbacks in negotiations.
5. **Title:** Updates: Gaza ceasefire? Questions swirl as Israel, US deny any deal made
**Description:** An Al Jazeera live blog on the Israel-Palestine conflict, focusing on ceasefire negotiations.
**Date:** May 26, 2025.
**Summary:** The blog reports on a proposed 60-day truce brokered by U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff, which Hamas initially appeared to accept but later clarified as needing changes. It highlights Israel’s dismissal of the proposal and ongoing violence, including aid disruptions. Expert analysts cited in the piece suggest that without mutual concessions, a deal remains elusive in the near term.
6. **Title:** Palestinian official says Hamas agrees to Gaza proposal, Israel dismisses it
**Description:** A Reuters article on Hamas’s response to a U.S.-mediated ceasefire plan.
**Date:** May 27, 2025.
**Summary:** The article states that a Palestinian official announced Hamas’s acceptance of a proposal by Steve Witkoff, including hostage exchanges and a temporary halt to fighting, but Israel quickly rejected it as insufficient. It notes U.S. pressure on both sides to compromise, with mediators warning of humanitarian consequences if talks fail. This illustrates the volatility of negotiations, with rapid shifts in positions.
7. **Title:** Hamas ‘thoroughly reviewing’ Israel’s response to US ceasefire proposal
**Description:** A Guardian article on the back-and-forth in ceasefire talks.
**Date:** May 30, 2025.
**Summary:** The piece describes Hamas’s ongoing review of Israel’s modifications to the U.S. proposal, which includes a 60-day ceasefire and aid influx but no full withdrawal. Expert opinions from diplomats criticize both sides for inflexibility, potentially delaying any agreement past June. It underscores the role of international mediators in pushing for revisions amid rising tensions.
8. **Title:** Why Hamas is seeking to change the US-proposed Gaza ceasefire deal
**Description:** An Al Jazeera feature analyzing Hamas’s demands in ceasefire negotiations.
**Date:** June 1, 2025 (published about 3 days ago).
**Summary:** The article explains Hamas’s push for amendments to the U.S. plan, citing concerns over Israel’s ability to resume hostilities post-ceasefire. It includes quotes from analysts warning that without guarantees for a permanent end to the war, Hamas may reject deals outright. This highlights expert sentiment that June 2025 could be a critical window, but only with significant concessions.
9. **Title:** Hamas says ceasefire proposal offers ‘no guarantees’ for end to Gaza war
**Description:** An Al Jazeera news piece on Hamas’s critique of the latest proposal.
**Date:** May 31, 2025.
**Summary:** The article reports Hamas’s statement that the U.S.-backed deal lacks assurances for a complete Israeli withdrawal and war termination, despite offering hostage releases. It features opinions from international experts, including U.N. officials, who note that stalled talks could exacerbate the humanitarian crisis. This update shows minimal progress toward a June declaration, with mediators urging flexibility.
10. **Title:** Hamas makes hostage pledge but demands changes to US Gaza ceasefire plan
**Description:** A BBC article on the specifics of Hamas’s response to ceasefire proposals.
**Date:** May 31, 2025.
**Summary:** The piece details Hamas’s offer to release hostages in phases while demanding alterations to ensure long-term peace, which U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff labeled “unacceptable.” It includes expert analysis from Middle East specialists indicating that public statements may not reflect private negotiations. This suggests ongoing uncertainty, with some sentiment from public posts on X reflecting frustration over repeated delays.
### Detailed Rundown of Relevant News and Context:
Based on the citations above, recent developments indicate a mix of diplomatic efforts and obstacles in the path to a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in June 2025. The most recent updates, from early June 2025, show that while there have been proposals and conditional responses, no definitive agreement has been reached as of June 4, 2025. For instance, U.S.-led initiatives, including a plan proposed by Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, have gained traction with Israel but faced significant pushback from Hamas, who insist on guarantees for a permanent end to hostilities and full withdrawal from Gaza. This aligns with patterns from late May 2025, where mediators from the U.S., Egypt, and Qatar have been actively involved, but progress remains stalled due to differing demands.
Key recent statistics and data include:
– **Negotiation milestones:** As reported in citations 1 and 3 (from June 1 and June 4, 2025), Hamas has proposed changes to a plan that includes a 60-day truce and the release of up to 28 hostages in the first phase, but these are contingent on Israeli concessions. Historical data from the past year shows similar proposals have repeatedly failed, with seasonal fluctuations in intensity—such as escalations in Q2 due to regional events—potentially influencing June outcomes.
– **Movement toward resolution:** There are no indications of an imminent declaration as of June 4, 2025, but citations 5 and 6 (from May 26-27, 2025) note a brief moment of optimism when Hamas appeared to accept a framework, only for it to be dismissed by Israel. Expert opinions from authoritative sources, such as U.S. diplomats and U.N. analysts (e.g., in citations 7 and 8), emphasize that Hamas’s demands for comprehensive changes could delay any deal, with some warning of “unacceptable” risks if negotiations collapse. Public sentiment, as reflected in posts on X, shows frustration and mixed views on progress, though this should be treated as inconclusive and not as factual evidence.
– **Expert opinions and authoritative insights:** Analysts from Reuters and Al Jazeera (citations 3 and 8) highlight that U.S. pressure, including from President Biden and President-elect Trump, has intensified in recent weeks, but Hamas’s rejections (e.g., as of June 1, 2025) suggest limited momentum. No official resolution criteria or binding sources (like a U.N. Security Council vote) have been finalized, but Resolution 2735 from June 2024 remains a reference point, advocating for similar phased deals.
In summary, while there are active diplomatic efforts and some conditional agreements on paper, recent updates point to significant hurdles that could prevent a ceasefire declaration in June 2025. This context is drawn from a variety of sources to ensure balance, and I’ve avoided making any forecasts, focusing instead on providing you with the most relevant, dated information for your forecasting process. If you need further clarification or additional sources, let me know.
GPT News Summary:
To forecast the likelihood of a ceasefire declaration between Israel and Hamas in June 2025, we need to examine the most recent developments and ongoing dynamics in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, particularly the recent propositions and anticipated actions at the UN Security Council, which may influence the situation.
1. **UN Security Council Votes**: On June 4, 2025, the UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution calling for an “immediate, unconditional, and permanent ceasefire” in Gaza. The resolution also demands the release of all hostages by Hamas, the lifting of restrictions on humanitarian aid, and ensuring its safe distribution by the UN and its partners. This resolution is heavily focused on addressing the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza. However, the expectation is that the US will use its veto power, potentially blocking the resolution, which reduces the likelihood of this ceasefire being implemented solely through the UN’s directive ([Awssat](https://aawsat.com/node/5150829), June 4, 2025).
2. **Ongoing Negotiations**: According to recent reports, there has been some movement towards negotiations. Hamas has expressed readiness to resume indirect negotiations with Israel for a ceasefire. This comes with international mediation primarily by Egypt and Qatar. These negotiations focus on resolving contentious issues, though previous attempts were blocked due to significant disagreements, mainly Hamas’s refusal to disarm ([Newsru](https://www.newsru.co.il/mideast/1jun2025/hamas_0011.html), June 1, 2025).
3. **US and International Involvement**: US President Donald Trump has expressed optimism about securing a ceasefire, indicating that a deal is “very close.” The US has proposed a 60-day ceasefire plan involving prisoner exchanges and humanitarian considerations, although Hamas has shown disappointment, mainly due to the lack of a clear commitment from Israel to withdraw troops. This plan faces obstacles but suggests a potential path forward if diplomatic pressures and negotiations can align ([Tag24](https://www.tag24.de/thema/israel/israel-krieg-3390488), June 1, 2025; [Klamm](https://www.klamm.de/news/gaza-deal-laut-trump-sehr-nah-un-warnen-vor-hungersnot-11N20090101250531930612143.html), May 31, 2025).
4. **On-Ground Situation**: The humanitarian situation in Gaza is described as catastrophic, with international pressure on both parties to ease the suffering. The US-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation has paused aid distribution due to safety concerns, highlighting the urgency and gravity of the ongoing conflict’s impact on civilians. Recent escalations include continued military actions by Israel and increasing pressure from international actors for a ceasefire ([Straits Times](https://www.straitstimes.com/world/middle-east/us-backed-gaza-aid-group-to-halt-distribution-on-june-4-un-to-vote-on-ceasefire-demand), June 4, 2025).
5. **Dynamics of the Conflict**: Israel has threatened “total destruction” if Hamas does not accept a new ceasefire deal, which has created urgency in negotiations but also a high-stakes environment which could lead to either escalation or resolution ([Medium](https://medium.com/@popalexander585/israel-warns-hamas-accept-the-deal-or-face-total-destruction-7eaadd6fadb0), June 2, 2025).
In conclusion, while there are ongoing efforts and international pressures to establish a ceasefire, significant hurdles remain, particularly concerning the US veto power and the deep-rooted issues between the conflicting parties. The likelihood of a declared ceasefire in June 2025 hinges on
overcoming these diplomatic and strategic challenges, making the situation highly volatile and uncertain.
Anthropic Binary response:
# Ceasefire Declaration Analysis: Israel-Hamas June 2025
## Current Situation Assessment
As of June 4, 2025, negotiations between Israel and Hamas show significant obstacles to a ceasefire by the end of June. The most recent developments include:
1. **Latest Proposals and Responses**:
– A U.S.-backed proposal presented in late May 2025 that Israel allegedly accepted
– Hamas’s response (May 31) offering to release hostages but demanding permanent cessation and full Israeli withdrawal
– U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff deemed Hamas’s amendments “unworkable” (June 1-3)
– UN Security Council scheduled to vote on a ceasefire resolution (June 4), though U.S. veto is expected
2. **Key Positions**:
– Israel (Netanyahu): Rejects permanent cessation, favors partial ceasefire, refuses full withdrawal
– Hamas: Insists on permanent end to hostilities and complete Israeli withdrawal
– U.S.: Supports phased approach with 60-day initial period, has rejected Hamas’s modifications
## Historical Context
Previous ceasefire attempts between these parties demonstrate recurring patterns:
– Lengthy negotiations (often months)
– Initial agreements followed by breakdown over specific terms
– Limited implementation of partial measures (prisoner exchanges, humanitarian pauses)
Since March 2025, there have been no successful ceasefires implemented, with the previous one having broken down. The historical precedent suggests that comprehensive agreements are difficult to achieve within a compressed timeframe.
## Time Constraints
With 26 days remaining in June (June 4-30), there is limited time for:
– Mediators to bridge fundamental disagreements
– Both parties to compromise on core demands
– Implementation logistics to be arranged
While ceasefires can sometimes be declared quickly, the current impasse on fundamental issues (permanent vs. temporary cessation, full vs. partial withdrawal) suggests a low probability of resolution within this timeframe.
## External Factors
Several external factors influence the likelihood:
– **International Pressure**: Humanitarian crisis creates urgency, but hasn’t overcome political barriers
– **U.S. Involvement**: Actively mediating but willing to veto UN resolutions
– **Regional Dynamics**: Egypt and Qatar continue mediation efforts with limited success
## Base Rate Analysis
Looking at past Israel-Hamas conflicts and ceasefire negotiations:
– 2008-2009 Gaza War: Took 3 weeks of fighting plus intensive negotiations
– 2014 Gaza War: Required 50 days of conflict before ceasefire
– 2021 Conflict: 11 days before Egyptian-brokered ceasefire
– 2023-2025 Conflict: Multiple failed negotiations over 19+ months
The current situation shows greater entrenchment than previous conflicts, with Netanyahu explicitly rejecting permanent cessation and Hamas equally firm on its demands.
## Probability Assessment
Given the information available:
– **Very Low Probability Scenario** (5-10%): Sudden breakthrough in negotiations, perhaps driven by unexpected external pressure or leadership changes
– **Low Probability Scenario** (15-20%): Partial measures implemented and labeled as “ceasefire” despite not meeting all demands
– **Most Likely Scenario** (70-80%): Continued negotiations without formal declaration by June 30
Considering the entrenched positions, historical precedent for protracted negotiations, and limited remaining time in June, I assess that a formal ceasefire declaration is unlikely within the specified timeframe.
Accounting for uncertainty and the possibility of unexpected developments, I’ll adjust slightly toward the center from my raw calculation.
Probability: 18%
Gemini Binary response:
Rationale:
The question asks for the probability of a ceasefire being declared between Israel and Hamas in June 2025, with today’s date being June 4, 2025, and the resolution date being July 1, 2025. This means the event must occur between June 4 and June 30, 2025, inclusive.
My analysis draws heavily from the provided research assistant outputs, prioritizing the most recent information and considering the specific definition of “ceasefire declared.”
**Key Factors and Evidence:**
1. **Fundamental Disagreements Persist:** The core obstacle to a ceasefire remains the significant divergence in demands between Israel and Hamas. Hamas insists on a permanent end to the war and a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, while Israel, under Netanyahu’s government, is resistant to these terms, aiming to dismantle Hamas and offering only a partial ceasefire. This fundamental incompatibility has historically stalled negotiations and continues to do so.
2. **Recent Negotiation Deadlock:**
* A UN Security Council vote on June 4, 2025, calling for an “immediate, unconditional, and permanent ceasefire,” was widely expected to face a US veto, indicating continued diplomatic alignment with Israel’s position against an unconditional cessation of hostilities.
* Hamas responded to a US-backed ceasefire proposal (May 31/June 1) with amendments that the US deemed “unworkable” and which Israel rejected as a “total lie” about ending the war. This signifies a recent and significant impasse in negotiations.
* By June 24, 2025, no agreement had been reached, with Hamas reiterating demands for immediate war cessation and Netanyahu proposing only a partial ceasefire without Gaza withdrawal. This latest information from very late in the month severely limits the time for a declaration to occur.
3. **Historical Precedent:** Past attempts at long-term ceasefires between the parties have repeatedly failed due to similar political disagreements and lack of trust, indicating a challenging and consistent pattern.
4. **Short Timeframe Remaining:** With today’s date being June 4 and the last update showing a stalemate on June 24, there are only six days left in June for a ceasefire to be declared. A significant breakthrough would be required in this very short period, which is highly improbable given the entrenched positions.
5. **Distinction between “Ceasefire Declared” and Partial Measures:** While humanitarian pauses or prisoner exchanges might be possible, the question asks for a “ceasefire declared,” which typically implies a broader agreement to cease hostilities. Even these partial measures are currently held up by Hamas’s demands for guarantees on the war’s end-state.
**Factors Suggesting a Low Probability:**
* **Entrenched Positions:** Both sides remain far apart on the fundamental terms of ending the conflict.
* **Recent Rejections:** The explicit rejection of Hamas’s amendments by the US and Israel in early June, coupled with the reported stalemate by June 24, demonstrates a lack of significant progress.
* **Time Constraint:** The extremely limited time remaining in June (June 25-30) makes a sudden, comprehensive agreement highly unlikely.
* **No Imminent Breakthrough Indicated:** The latest reports do not suggest any imminent shift in negotiating positions that would lead to a declaration within days.
While there are ongoing international mediation efforts and severe humanitarian pressure, these have not been sufficient to bridge the fundamental gaps between the parties to date. The consistent pattern of stalled talks and the specific information indicating a stalemate just days before the end of the month strongly point towards a low probability of a ceasefire being declared in June 2025.
Probability: 3%
GPT Binary response:
Reasoning
1. Definition of the event
• A public, authoritative statement from (a) the Government of Israel, (b) Hamas’s political‐military leadership, and/or (c) an agreed-upon third-party mediator (e.g., the U.S., Egypt, Qatar, U.N.) announcing a ceasefire that both Israel and Hamas accept must be issued between 00:00 UTC 1 June 2025 and 23:59 UTC 30 June 2025.
• Mere “proposal”, “draft”, or “talks” do not qualify; the declaration has to be made and acknowledged as accepted by both combatants.
2. Current status (4 June 2025)
• No ceasefire is in force. Heavy fighting continues.
• A U.S./Egypt/Qatar–brokered three-stage deal was tabled 31 May. Israel accepted it “in principle”; Hamas replied 2 June with amendments (permanent end of war / full withdrawal). Washington judged the amendments “unworkable”; Israel called them a “total lie”.
• UNSC draft demanding an “immediate, unconditional and permanent ceasefire” comes to a vote today; the U.S. is expected to veto.
• Domestic politics: Netanyahu’s coalition, reliant on far-right partners, opposes any agreement ending the war before “Hamas is destroyed”. Hostage-families and centrists support a deal, but they lack veto power inside the cabinet.
• Hamas is under severe humanitarian, military, and regional pressure but still insists on maximalist terms.
3. Time remaining
• 26 calendar days. Diplomatically this is very short: the last 20 months show each negotiation cycle (tabling, counter-proposal, shuttle diplomacy, internal sign-off) usually consumes 2-3 weeks. Even if convergence starts today, slippage into early July is plausible.
4. Scenario tree (rounded)
A. Negotiations collapse or stall → no declaration (≈70 %).
B. Parties converge on a phased truce in late June → declaration issued 18-30 June (≈18 %).
C. Sudden unilateral or imposed ceasefire (regional blow-up, U.S. arms leverage, Israeli cabinet crisis) → declaration (≈4 %).
D. Other/unknown (≈8 %, covers modelling error).
Sum of positive branches ≈22 %.
5. Cross-checks
• Historical monthly base rate of new Gaza ceasefires during active wars (2008, 2012, 2014, 2021, 2023-25) ≈10-15 %.
• Active, but dead-locked, diplomacy adds ~+10 %.
• Very short horizon and hard Israeli political constraint subtract ~-5 %.
Result aligns with 20-25 % range.
6. Calibration adjustments
• I have tended to be 5-10 % over-confident historically, so I shade downward 1-2 %.
• Final rounded probability: 22 %.
Probability: 22%
The extracted probability is: 22%
All predictions: [3, 8, 12, 15, 15, 18, 18, 22, 25]
Filtered predictions: [12, 15, 15, 18, 18]
=== Reasoning ===
# Analysis of Ceasefire Prospects Between Israel and Hamas in June 2025
## Current Situation Assessment (as of June 4, 2025)
The most recent information indicates ongoing negotiations but significant obstacles to a June 2025 ceasefire:
1. **Latest Diplomatic Efforts**:
– A UN Security Council vote on a resolution calling for “immediate, unconditional, and permanent ceasefire” is scheduled for June 4, 2025, but likely faces a US veto
– US-led proposal from late May includes a 60-day ceasefire and phased hostage releases
– Hamas has conditionally agreed to release hostages (10 living, 18 deceased) in exchange for Palestinian prisoners
2. **Key Obstacles**:
– Fundamental disagreement on permanence: Hamas demands permanent cessation and full Israeli withdrawal; Israel insists on partial ceasefire without ending war
– US officials (June 1-4) deemed Hamas’s amendments “unworkable”
– Netanyahu explicitly rejected the notion of ending the war before achieving Israel’s goals
– By June 21-24, positions had hardened with no breakthrough
3. **Timing Factors**:
– Only 26 days remain in June 2025 as of today (June 4)
– Historical patterns show ceasefire negotiations in this conflict typically take months, not weeks
– Previous ceasefire attempts (2015, 2017, 2024) faced similar fundamental disagreements
## Probability Assessment
To determine the likelihood of a ceasefire declaration in June 2025, I’ll consider:
### Positive Factors (Supporting a June Ceasefire)
– Active mediation by US, Egypt, and Qatar continues
– Humanitarian crisis creates urgency for resolution
– Limited prisoner exchanges or partial agreements might be achievable
– Trump administration expressing optimism about a potential deal
### Negative Factors (Against a June Ceasefire)
– Entrenched positions on core issues (permanent vs. temporary, withdrawal requirements)
– US rejection of Hamas amendments as recently as June 1-4
– Netanyahu’s public refusal to end war before achieving objectives
– Hamas’s insistence on permanent cessation and full withdrawal
– Historical precedent of lengthy, failed negotiations
– Only 26 days remaining in June
### Timeline and Base Rate Analysis
– Previous ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas typically took 2-6 months to conclude
– Even when agreements were reached, implementation often failed due to mistrust
– Since October 2023, there have been multiple failed attempts at comprehensive ceasefires
– The core demands remain largely unchanged from previous unsuccessful rounds
### Mathematical Assessment
Given the current deadlock on fundamental issues, historical patterns, and limited time remaining in June:
– Base rate of successful ceasefires after similar negotiation periods: ~15-20%
– Adjustment for current diplomatic conditions: -5% (harder positions than typical)
– Adjustment for time constraint: -3% (only 26 days remain)
– Adjustment for partial agreements: +3% (possibility of limited prisoner exchanges)
## Conclusion
The evidence strongly suggests low probability of a ceasefire declaration between Israel and Hamas in June 2025. The fundamental disagreements (permanent vs. temporary cessation, extent of withdrawal) represent the same barriers that have prevented agreements in the past. With only 26 days remaining and hardened positions on both sides, a comprehensive ceasefire appears unlikely.
There is a possibility of partial agreements or limited humanitarian pauses, but these would fall short of a formal ceasefire declaration. The UN Security Council vote might increase pressure, but the expected US veto limits its impact.
Accounting for all factors and avoiding overconfidence, I assess the probability at:
Probability: 15%
For more on a possible Israel/Hamas Ceasefire see Botmaster Phil Godzin’s forecast details of June 4, 2025 —>
Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy ’s bots —>
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/longform/2023/10/9/israel-hamas-war-in-maps-and-charts-live-tracker
