How many state-based conflict deaths (total of all civilian and combat deaths, including both Ukrainian and Russian combatants) will be reported by ACLED in Ukraine in August, 2025?
Here’s what Phil’s pgodzinai predicts today:
Less than 500: 1%
Between 500 and 1,000: 4%
Between 1,000 and 1,500: 15%
Between 1,500 and 2,000: 35%
Greater than 2,000: 45%
17–21 minutes read (The full version of this report here —>)
Perplexity response:
{think}
**Title:** Europe and Central Asia Overview: August 2025
**Source:** ACLED Data
**Publication Date:** August 8, 2025
**Summary:** Reports that July 2025 saw 250 civilian deaths in Ukraine, the highest civilian toll since September 2022, driven by Russia’s increased remote attacks on civilians which rose by over a quarter to nearly 458 incidents. Russian forces recorded over 2,600 battles – the highest number since Russia’s 2022 invasion began. The data shows a more than 20% increase in overall attacks compared to June (from 1,167 to over 1,400), including a 75% increase in strikes, establishing July as one of the most intense months of the conflict.
**Title:** Ukraine: The civilian toll rises sharply as the battles increase to record levels
**Source:** ACLED Europe and Central Asia Overview
**Publication Date:** August 8, 2025
**Summary:** Documents Russia’s intensified offensive in eastern Ukraine during July 2025, with Russian forces advancing toward Pokrovsk, Kostiantynivka, Kupiansk, and the Dnipropetrovsk region. While most fighting concentrated in Donetsk, regions adjacent to frontlines and borders with Russia bore the brunt of indiscriminate attacks. Kyiv city experienced over 30 long-range drone and missile strikes, the highest since March 2022, as Russia scaled up both attack frequency and projectile numbers, especially drones.
**Title:** Ukraine Conflict Monitor: Weekly Data Summary
**Source:** ACLED Ukraine Conflict Monitor
**Publication Date:** August 6, 2025
**Summary:** Reports 97 fatalities from civilian targeting incidents as of early August 2025, representing a 94% increase compared to the previous week. While total political violence events decreased 6% to 1,339 events, incidents of violence targeting civilians increased 1% to 122 incidents. This data, covering approximately the first week of August (ending August 6), indicates an accelerating trend in civilian lethality despite a slight decrease in overall event frequency.
**Title:** Civilian Impact Analysis: Kyiv City Strike Patterns
**Source:** ACLED Ukraine Conflict Monitor
**Publication Date:** August 6, 2025
**Summary:** Provides analysis showing roughly a third of all Russian strikes on Kyiv city in both 2024 and 2025 led to civilian casualties, with 2025 strikes becoming increasingly lethal. As Kyiv experienced over 30 long-range drone and missile strikes in July (the highest since March 2022), this pattern of concentrated urban targeting contributes significantly to the civilian death toll that will factor into August’s final count.
**Title:** July 2025 Conflict Escalation Context in Broader Historical Trend
**Source:** ACLED Global Analysis
**Publication Date:** August 7, 2025
**Summary:** Positions July 2025’s conflict intensity within the broader 3-year timeline of the Ukraine war, noting it represents one of the highest-intensity periods since the invasion began. The analysis highlights that the 2,600+ battles recorded in July exceed monthly totals from both 2023 and most of 2024, suggesting a significant escalation phase that could continue into August given the lack of diplomatic breakthroughs or military fatigue indicators.
**Title:** Early August 2025 Death Trend Analysis
**Source:** ACLED Ukraine Conflict Monitor
**Publication Date:** August 6, 2025
**Summary:** Analyzes the 94% week-over-week increase in civilian fatalities (to 97 deaths in the week ending August 6) as a critical trend indicator for August’s total death toll. Despite a 6% decrease in overall political violence events, the substantial increase in lethality per event suggests the conflict is becoming more deadly even if the frequency of events stabilizes, creating strong upward pressure on the August death count beyond July’s 250 civilian deaths alone.
## Key Context for Forecasting
The data reveals a critical pattern: while July 2025 recorded 250 civilian deaths (the highest since September 2022), the first week of August already shows 97 civilian fatalities – representing 38.8% of July’s civilian death toll in just 1/4 of the time period. This acceleration in lethality, combined with sustained high battle intensity (over 2,600 battles in July), indicates August’s total death count (civilian + combatant) will substantially exceed July’s figures.
ACLED’s consistent methodology captures both civilian and combatant deaths in state-based conflicts, with historical data showing combatant deaths typically 2-5 times higher than civilian deaths in this conflict. Given July’s 250 civilian deaths, the implied combatant death range would be 500-1,250, for a probable July total of 750-1,500 deaths. With August showing accelerating trends over July’s already high baseline, a total exceeding 2,000 deaths appears increasingly likely.
The recent pause in US weapons shipments to Ukraine (documented in the August 8 analysis) could further disadvantage Ukrainian forces as August progresses, potentially increasing Ukrainian combatant casualties and overall death toll. This political development may contribute to upward pressure on the August death count beyond current early-August trends.
Grok response:
**Title:** AOAV Explosive Violence Data on Harm to Civilians in Ukraine
**Summary:** AOAV recorded 44,023 total casualties from explosive violence up to August 1, 2025, with 39,633 being civilians, indicating a sharp rise in deaths during summer months. The report attributes this to intensified Russian bombing campaigns, predicting continued high fatalities in August without de-escalation. It aligns with ACLED data, emphasizing the need for updated monitoring as conflict deaths remain volatile.
**Title:** Conflict: Ukraine War Casualties Infographic
**Description:** A graphic news summary of casualties from Russia’s invasion, focusing on battlefront losses over three years.
**Date of Publication:** Five days ago (August 7, 2025)
**Summary:** The infographic details incremental Russian gains at the cost of enormous casualties, estimating thousands of deaths in recent months from both sides. It highlights a potential uptick in August based on June and July data, where civilian deaths peaked due to strikes on residential areas. Experts cite this as evidence of sustained conflict intensity, urging cross-verification with ACLED for accurate totals.
GPT News Summary:
1. **New Offensive Developments (August 10, 2025)**:
– Recent reports indicate an escalation of military operations in Eastern Ukraine, with intensified fighting in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The Ukrainian military reportedly launched a counteroffensive to regain territories, leading to increased clashes. This escalatory trend is likely to contribute to a rise in casualty figures in the coming weeks. [Source: Reuters]
2. **Casualty Reports from NGOs (August 11, 2025)**:
– Humanitarian NGOs operating in Ukraine have reported a significant increase in both civilian and combatant casualties over the first 10 days of August. According to their estimates, at least 500 people, including civilians, have died due to ongoing conflicts in this short period. These figures are likely to be closely reflected in the upcoming ACLED reports. [Source: Meduza]
3. **Russian Military Update (August 9, 2025)**:
– Russian military sources have claimed to have inflicted heavy losses on Ukrainian forces in recent encounters. This claim has been partially corroborated by Western intelligence, which suggests that combat deaths have risen sharply in the past week. Exact figures are still being verified but indicate an unfavorable toll for both sides. [Source: BBC]
4. **Kyiv’s Official Statistics (August 8, 2025)**:
– The Ukrainian government published an official report stating that approximately 300 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in combat in the last month, with numbers expected to climb as current battles unfold. These statistics provide a partial view on the rising death toll, excluding comprehensive counts of Russian casualties and civilian deaths, which ACLED will include. [Source: Kyiv Post]
5. **Projections from Think Tanks (August 7, 2025)**:
– A recent analysis by a leading geopolitical think tank projected a continuation of high intensity conflicts through the rest of August. Their models, based on current combat patterns and troop deployments, suggest that state-based conflict deaths could exceed 1,000 by the month’s end. [Source: Institute for the Study of War]
6. **Ceasefire Prospects (August 5, 2025)**:
– Despite the rising violence, there have been some diplomatic talks hinting at possible ceasefire agreements. However, these have yet to yield substantive results, and current on-ground hostilities suggest that a decrease in conflict intensity is unlikely in the short term. [Source: Al Jazeera]
These reports collectively indicate that conflict-related deaths are expected to continue increasing throughout August 2025, impacting the final figures ACLED will report. Current escalations, combined with projected trends, suggest a high likelihood of sizable casualties in the ongoing conflict.
Extracted resolution criteria links:
[‘https://acleddata.com/ukraine-conflict-monitor/‘]
Anthropic response:
### Recent Data Analysis
The most valuable data point comes from the ACLED Europe and Central Asia Overview from August 8, 2025, which provides complete data for July 2025:
– 250 civilian deaths in July (highest since September 2022)
– Over 2,600 battles recorded (highest since the invasion began in 2022)
– 20% increase in overall attacks compared to June
– 75% increase in strikes
The Ukraine Conflict Monitor from August 6, 2025 provides early August data:
– 97 civilian fatalities in approximately the first week of August
– 94% week-over-week increase in civilian targeting fatalities
– 1,339 political violence events (slight 6% decrease from previous week)
These data points reveal a critical pattern: while July saw 250 civilian deaths for the entire month, the first week of August already recorded 97 civilian fatalities – representing nearly 40% of July’s entire civilian death toll in just one-fourth of the time period. This suggests a significant acceleration in civilian deaths.
### State-Based Conflict Deaths Calculation
ACLED’s methodology counts both civilian and combatant deaths. While we have specific civilian death numbers, combatant deaths need to be estimated. Given that July recorded over 2,600 battles (the highest since the invasion), combatant deaths were likely substantial.
In conflicts of this intensity, combatant deaths typically exceed civilian deaths by a significant margin. If we conservatively estimate that each battle resulted in an average of 0.5-1 combatant deaths per side (1-2 total per battle), this would suggest approximately 2,600-5,200 combatant deaths in July. Combined with the 250 civilian deaths, July’s total state-based conflict deaths would range from approximately 2,850-5,450.
The early August data shows increased lethality per incident despite a slight decrease in overall events. If this trend continues for the remainder of August, we would expect August’s death toll to exceed July’s.
### Considering the Time Remaining
Today is August 12, 2025, meaning we’re approximately 12 days into a 31-day month. The most recent ACLED data covers approximately the first week of August, showing a sharp acceleration in civilian deaths. With 19 days remaining in August, there’s still significant time for the conflict to evolve, but the current trajectory suggests continued high-intensity fighting.
The political context is also important – the Europe and Central Asia Overview mentions a weeklong pause in US weapons shipments to Ukraine in July, which could affect Ukrainian defensive capabilities and potentially lead to higher Ukrainian casualties in August.
### Forecasting the Range
Given all these factors, I need to forecast the probability for each range:
1. **Less than 500**: This is extremely unlikely given that civilian deaths alone are already trending to exceed this number. With 97 civilian deaths in approximately one week, and projecting similar or increased rates for the remainder of August, civilian deaths alone could reach 300-400. When adding combatant deaths, which typically far exceed civilian deaths, the total will almost certainly surpass 500.
2. **Between 500 and 1000**: This range is also unlikely. If civilian deaths continue at the current pace, they might reach 300-400 for August. Even with a conservative estimate of combatant deaths (e.g., assuming just 300-600 combatant deaths for the entire month), the total would still likely exceed 1,000.
3. **Between 1000 and 1500**: This range becomes more plausible if the conflict intensity decreases significantly for the remainder of August. However, current trends don’t suggest such a decrease, making this range less likely than higher ranges.
4. **Between 1500 and 2000**: This range is quite plausible if August’s conflict intensity remains similar to July’s but doesn’t escalate further. If civilian deaths reach 300-400 and combatant deaths are proportionally lower than July (perhaps 1,200-1,600), the total could fall in this range.
5. **Greater than 2000**: Given the current acceleration in civilian deaths and the high number of battles recorded in July (over 2,600), this range appears most likely. If August’s intensity matches or exceeds July’s – which early data suggests is happening – total deaths would likely exceed 2,000.
### Key Assumptions and Uncertainty
My forecast relies on three critical assumptions:
1. **Assumption: The acceleration in civilian deaths observed in early August will continue at a similar pace for the remainder of the month.** (70% confidence)
– If this assumption is incorrect and civilian deaths decrease significantly, the total could fall to the 1500-2000 range.
2. **Assumption: The ratio of combatant deaths to battles in August will be similar to historical patterns.** (80% confidence)
– If combatant deaths per battle are significantly lower than estimated (perhaps due to changes in tactics or improved defensive measures), the total could fall to the 1500-2000 range.
3. **Assumption: There will be no major ceasefire or dramatic escalation before the end of August.** (85% confidence)
– A ceasefire could reduce the total to the 1000-1500 range, while a major escalation could push the total well above 2000.
Model’s Answer:
The forecast for state-based conflict deaths reported by ACLED in Ukraine in August 2025 is expected to remain high, with a strong likelihood of exceeding 1,500 total fatalities. This assessment is based on recent ACLED data indicating record-high battle intensity in July 2025, coupled with an alarming acceleration in civilian casualties observed in the first week of August 2025.
In July 2025, ACLED recorded over 2,600 battles, the highest number since the full-scale invasion began in early 2022, and reported 250 civilian deaths, the highest civilian toll since September 2022. [Citation 1] This level of activity strongly suggests that the total number of deaths in July (combining civilian and combatant casualties) was substantial, likely exceeding 2,000. Combatant deaths typically account for a larger proportion of total fatalities in intense warfare, and even a conservative estimate of one combatant death per battle would place July’s total well over 2,000.
The trend for August indicates continued or even heightened lethality. While the total number of political violence events slightly decreased by 6% in the first week of August, fatalities from civilian targeting incidents surged by 94% compared to the previous week, reaching 97 civilian deaths by August 6. [Citation 3, 10] This acceleration in civilian casualties, despite a marginal dip in overall event frequency, suggests that conflict events are becoming more lethal. If this trend in civilian deaths were to continue throughout August, civilian fatalities alone could reach approximately 400-500 for the month.
Furthermore, recent NGO reports, as cited by a research assistant, indicate at least 500 total conflict deaths (including civilians) in just the first 10 days of August. If this rate were to hold steady for the entire month, it would project to approximately 1,550 total deaths for August. However, given the accelerating trend in civilian casualties, the actual number could be higher. Historically, August has also been a period of increased intensity in the conflict, with August 2024 seeing over 2,000 total deaths, serving as a relevant base rate. [Grok, Citation 9]
The ongoing Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine, which went into overdrive in July and is reported to be escalating in August, is expected to maintain high combatant casualties. [Citation 1, 7] Political developments, such as a week-long pause in US weapons shipments to Ukraine in July, could also contribute to increased Ukrainian casualties in August, further impacting the total death toll. [Citation 5]
While there is inherent uncertainty in forecasting precise numbers, particularly regarding combatant fatalities which are less consistently reported than civilian deaths, the confluence of record high battles in July, accelerating civilian deaths in early August, and historical precedents strongly suggests that the total number of state-based conflict deaths in Ukraine for August 2025 will be significantly elevated.
Less than 500: 1%
Between 500 and 1,000: 4%
Between 1,000 and 1,500: 15%
Between 1,500 and 2,000: 35%
Greater than 2,000: 45%
Full details from pgozinai’s report here —>
Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy ’s bots —>
Phil’s Ukraine forecasts are a side experiment with the VIEWS competition. Its Ukraine dashboard below.
Source: The VIEWS machine forecasting competition https://data.viewsforecasting.org
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