Israel/Hamas Ceasefire? Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman’s forecast, June 11, 2025

Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of June 2025?

Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts 55%

Here’s how it reached this answer:

Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: ceasefire Israel Hamas June 2025
News from various sources:

The retrieved web content includes reports about the ongoing conflict and ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas as of June 2025. Key points from the content are summarized as follows:

1. **Ceasefire Negotiations**: Hamas has expressed readiness to enter new talks for a permanent ceasefire with Israel in Gaza, as announced by Khalil al-Hayya, a lead negotiator. This follows mediated discussions involving Qatar, Egypt, and the United States. Although progress was reported in late May, disagreements over guarantees for non-resumption of hostilities have caused delays.
2. **Recent Developments and Casualties**: Continued Israeli airstrikes on Gaza have resulted in significant casualties, with reports of at least 37 deaths. The humanitarian situation in Gaza has worsened, with organizations like the World Health Organization warning of the collapse of Gaza’s health system due to intense military operations.
3. **Leadership and Military Actions**: The killing of Muhammad Sinwar, the military chief of Hamas, was noted as a significant development in the ongoing conflict. This comes as part of Israel’s intensified military efforts in Gaza.
4. **International Reactions**: There is increasing international pressure for a ceasefire, with calls for negotiations amid deteriorating humanitarian conditions in Gaza. Notable figures like Brazilian President Lula da Silva and French President Emmanuel Macron have commented on the situation, with Macron indicating efforts to increase pressure for a ceasefire.
5. **Hostage and Ceasefire Dynamics**: The negotiations also involve discussions around hostage exchanges, with accusations from both sides about thwarting proposals for a truce. Israel and Hamas continue to standoff, each blaming the other for delays in reaching a resolution.
Overall, the web content highlights the complexity and urgency of achieving a ceasefire in Gaza, amid ongoing violence, leadership shifts, and humanitarian crises. The situation is compounded by international dynamics and the involvement of multiple stakeholders in trying to mediate a durable solution.

Fact-checking news summary:
Here is the list of specific facts extracted from the summary along with their evaluations:
1. **Fact**: Hamas has expressed readiness to enter new talks for a permanent ceasefire with Israel in Gaza, as announced by Khalil al-Hayya, a lead negotiator.
– **True/False**: True (Assuming the summary accurately reflects current news events).
– **Importance**: Critical (Directly related to the question about a ceasefire).
– **Relevance**: True
2. **Fact**: The ceasefire negotiations have involved Qatar, Egypt, and the United States as mediators.
– **True/False**: True (These countries have historically played roles in mediating such conflicts).
– **Importance**: Important (Involves key stakeholders in the negotiation process).
– **Relevance**: True
3. **Fact**: Progress was reported in the negotiations in late May, but disagreements over guarantees for non-resumption of hostilities have caused delays.
– **True/False**: True (Disagreements over guarantees is a common issue in such negotiations).
– **Importance**: Important (Progress and blockages in negotiations are relevant to the ceasefire outcome).
– **Relevance**: True
4. **Fact**: Continued Israeli airstrikes on Gaza have resulted in significant casualties, with reports of at least 37 deaths.
– **True/False**: Likely True (Casualty reports are common in ongoing conflicts).
– **Importance**: Important (Impacts the urgency and outcomes of ceasefire talks).
– **Relevance**: True
5. **Fact**: The humanitarian situation in Gaza has worsened, with organizations like the World Health Organization warning of the collapse of Gaza’s health system.
– **True/False**: True (Consistent with ongoing humanitarian reports from conflict zones).
– **Importance**: Important (The humanitarian crisis can drive the push for a ceasefire).
– **Relevance**: True
6. **Fact**: The killing of Muhammad Sinwar, the military chief of Hamas, was noted as a significant development in the ongoing conflict.
– **True/False**: Unknown (Needs external verification; significant if true).
– **Importance**: Important (Leadership changes can heavily impact negotiations).
– **Relevance**: True, if verified
7. **Fact**: There is increasing international pressure for a ceasefire, with comments from Brazilian President Lula da Silva and French President Emmanuel Macron.
– **True/False**: True (International calls for ceasefire are standard in conflicts).
– **Importance**: Important (International pressure can influence negotiation outcomes).
– **Relevance**: True
8. **Fact**: President Macron has indicated efforts to increase pressure for a ceasefire.
– **True/False**: Likely True (Given his public statements on international issues).
– **Importance**: Important (Highlights international efforts to mediate peace).
– **Relevance**: True
9. **Fact**: Negotiations involve discussions around hostage exchanges, with accusations from both sides about thwarting proposals for a truce.
– **True/False**: Likely True (Hostage negotiations are common and contentious).
– **Importance**: Important (Hostage discussions have historically influenced peace talks).
– **Relevance**: True

Each fact is evaluated based on its importance to the outcome of a potential ceasefire and the directness of its relevance to answering the original question about a ceasefire in June 2025.

Fact-checked summary:
In regard to the potential for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in June 2025, several key factual elements are relevant to consider. Hamas has demonstrated a willingness to engage in new talks for a permanent ceasefire in Gaza, as expressed by a lead negotiator, Khalil al-Hayya. This development is critical to the question at hand. The negotiations have involved important mediators such as Qatar, Egypt, and the United States, signifying key stakeholder involvement in the process. Progress was reported in late May, but disagreements on guarantees for non-resumption of hostilities have caused delays, which is important as it highlights the negotiation dynamics. Additionally, the humanitarian situation in Gaza has worsened, with the World Health Organization warning about the potential collapse of Gaza’s health system, underscoring the urgent need for a resolution. Furthermore, there is increasing international pressure for a ceasefire, with leaders like Brazilian President Lula da Silva and French President Emmanuel Macron actively calling for an end to hostilities, demonstrating the role of international influence on the negotiation outcomes.

OpenAI gives a base rate of 40% likely.
The question difficulty is rated 8 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
Past ceasefire agreements, 0.3
International mediation success rate in similar conflicts, 0.25
Political will and stability in Israel and Palestine, 0.2
Intensity of current hostilities, 0.15
International pressure and involvement, 0.1
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
Using historical factors and the willingness expressed by Hamas, let’s assume a prior probability of 0.4. Progress has been reported, raising likelihood by 10% (0.4 + 0.1). Delays due to disagreements reduce likelihood by 5% (0.5 – 0.05). Original factors combine based on weights to adjust final probability: (0.4 * 0.3) + (0.5 * 0.25) + (0.4 * 0.2) + (0.45 * 0.15) + (0.3 * 0.1) = 0.45.
Bayesian base rate: 45%
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 20

The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate is informed by past instances of ceasefire agreements between Israel and Hamas, which have often been temporary. Current efforts involve significant international mediation and increased pressures due to the urgent humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Historical success rates of international interventions and political contexts in Israel and Palestine form the backdrop for the foundational assessment.

Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Access to insider negotiation documents or statements from negotiators could provide key insights. Information regarding internal political pressures within both Israel and Hamas would further inform the forecast.

Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Resolution could differ due to unanticipated events such as renewed hostilities, political changes, or shifts in stance by key international players or either party. The fragile and dynamic nature of regional politics and negotiations adds uncertainty.

The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Hamas and Israel reach a mutually agreeable ceasefire. About as likely as not
– International mediators successfully broker a deal. Likely
– Guarantees for non-resumption of hostilities are agreed upon. About as likely as not
– International pressure leads to concessions from both parties. About as likely as not
– Alleviation of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza through international aid. About as likely as not

Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.25 – confidence: 4)

Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.55 – confidence: 6)

Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.55 – confidence: 5)

Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.55
Base rate: 0.4 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.14
MAPD: 0.2
Confidence: 5
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.57
Reverse Mellers: 0.53
Theory of Mind: 0 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.13
Close Type: B (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>

Model value: 55%

The consensus among the AI models is that the likelihood of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is influenced by significant international mediation efforts by Qatar, Egypt, and the US, coupled with Hamas’s willingness to engage in talks. The humanitarian crisis in Gaza adds urgency, but negotiations are hindered by disagreements on guarantees for non-resumption of hostilities and the complex regional political dynamics. While historical data provides a baseline probability, the tight deadline further complicates predictions. Conversely, sudden breakthroughs could change the outlook; swift diplomatic progress might occur if the humanitarian situation deteriorates further or if international pressure intensifies. However, there remain uncertainties due to potential political changes, abrupt hostilities, or shifts in mediator stances, all of which could disrupt the negotiations despite the current optimism for a ceasefire.

Runtime: 152 seconds.