What is the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 20%, down from 45% yesterday.
Obtaining outside newsfeed from AskNews: Here are the current news articles relevant to the keywords “US Steel Nippon Steel merger” from reliable sources
1. **Title:** Nippon Steel’s US Steel takeover plan has support in steelmaking areas, executive says
**URL:** [biztoc.com]https://biztoc.com/x/0f9e4e5d8c0e9e0b
**Summary:** Nippon Steel’s President Tadashi Imai stated that there is ‘considerable support’ for the company’s proposal to acquire U.S. Steel in the regions where steel mills are located. Imai expressed hope that President Biden will understand the value of the acquisition to the U.S. economy. A letter signed by two dozen U.S. municipality officials was shared, urging Biden to approve the takeover deal. However, the United Steelworkers labor union has expressed opposition, stating that Nippon Steel has no interest in the long-term security of U.S. Steel plants.
2. **Title:** US President Biden to decide fate of Nippon Steel’s US$15 billion bid for US Steel
**URL:** [straitstimes.com]https://www.straitstimes.com/business/us-president-biden-to-decide-fate-of-nippon-steels-us15-billion-bid-for-us-steel
**Summary:** US President Joe Biden has been referred the $15 billion bid by Nippon Steel to acquire US Steel, giving him 15 days to decide on the deal. Biden has previously expressed opposition to the tie-up, but if he takes no action, the merger would get an unexpected greenlight. Nippon Steel and US Steel have urged Biden to approve the deal, citing benefits including increased steel production capacity and enhanced national security.
3. **Title:** US Steel Asks for Nippon Deal To Be Approved With President Biden Set to Decide
**URL:** [investopedia.com]https://www.investopedia.com/us-steel-asks-for-nippon-deal-to-be-approved-with-president-biden-set-to-decide-5181851
**Summary:** U.S. Steel’s $14.9 billion purchase by Nippon Steel has been passed to President Biden to decide after U.S. regulators failed to agree on the deal. Both President Biden and President-elect Trump have expressed opposition to the merger, citing concerns about a key American steelmaker being owned by a foreign entity. U.S. Steel has warned that it will have to close factories without the promised investment from Nippon.
4. **Title:** Nippon Steel’s $14.9 Billion Gamble: A Merger in Peril
**URL:** [devdiscourse.com]https://www.devdiscourse.com/
article/business/2573271-nippon-steels-149-billion-gamble-a-
merger-in-peril
**Summary:** Nippon Steel’s $14.9 billion acquisition of U.S. Steel is facing significant hurdles due to national security concerns. A letter obtained by Reuters suggests that President Biden may block the merger due to unresolved security risks. Despite three revamped proposals, the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States remains divided. U.S. Steel argues that the investment would secure its future, but opposition remains strong.
5. **Title:** Nippon Steel’s U.S. Steel Acquisition Plan Referred to Biden for Review — Update
**URL:** [marketscreener.com]https://www.marketscreener.com/
quote/stock/NIPPON-STEEL-CORPORATION-6492314/news/
nippon-steel-s-u-s-steel-acquisition-plan-referred-to-biden-for-review-update-42275172/
**Summary:** Nippon Steel’s plan to acquire United States Steel has been referred to President Biden for review after a government panel failed to reach a consensus. Nippon Steel is confident that the transaction should be approved if evaluated fairly, citing steps taken to address national security concerns and commitments to grow U.S. Steel and protect American jobs.
*Generated by AI at AskNews on December 25, 2024 03:05 PM. Wanna see more? Checkout our custom written stories and state of the art Event Tracking https://asknews.app*
Summarizing outside newsfeed: “The proposed acquisition of U.S. Steel by Nippon Steel, valued at approximately $15 billion, is currently under review by U.S. President Joe Biden following a lack of consensus among regulatory bodies. The merger faces significant opposition due to national security concerns and the potential impact on domestic steel production, with key stakeholders like the United Steelworkers labor union expressing apprehension. While Nippon Steel claims notable support from steel-producing regions and believes the acquisition could enhance national security through increased production capacity, Biden has previously shown resistance to the deal. Moreover, the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States is divided on the matter, heightening speculation that Biden might block the merger due to unresolved security issues. However, if no action is taken within the stipulated period, the merger might proceed unexpectedly.”
Fact-checking news summary: Based on the provided summary, here are the specific facts, their validation, and relevance to the question:
1. **Fact**: The proposed acquisition of U.S. Steel by Nippon Steel is valued at approximately $15 billion.
– **Correctness**: Cannot verify with the provided information; external data needed.
– **Relevance**: False. The valuation of the merger does not directly affect the probability of it being announced before a specific date.
2. **Fact**: The merger is currently under review by U.S. President Joe Biden due to a lack of consensus among regulatory bodies.
– **Correctness**: Cannot fully verify with the provided information; but such reviews typically involve U.S. government oversight.
– **Relevance**: True. The review status is directly relevant to the timeline of the merger announcement.
3. **Fact**: The merger faces significant opposition due to national security concerns and the potential impact on domestic steel production.
– **Correctness**: Plausible, as mergers involving foreign companies can often raise national security and domestic industry concerns; but cannot fully verify without external data.
– **Relevance**: True. The opposition impacts the likelihood of announcement before a deadline.
4. **Fact**: Key stakeholders like the United Steelworkers labor union are expressing apprehension.
– **Correctness**: Possible, labor unions often express concerns in such mergers; but verification needed through external sources.
– **Relevance**: True. Stakeholder positions affect the potential for a merger’s approval and announcement.
5. **Fact**: Nippon Steel claims notable support from steel-producing regions.
– **Correctness**: Cannot verify with the provided information; external data required for confirmation.
– **Relevance**: True. Regional support might influence the merger’s outcome and timing.
6. **Fact**: Nippon Steel believes the acquisition could enhance national security through increased production capacity.
– **Correctness**: This is a statement of belief and can be taken as accurate.
– **Relevance**: True. Arguments about national security impact regulatory decisions.
7. **Fact**: President Joe Biden has previously shown resistance to the deal.
– **Correctness**: Cannot verify with the provided information; needs external validation.
– **Relevance**: True. Presidential stance is crucial to the decision-making process.
8. **Fact**: The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) is divided on the matter.
– **Correctness**: Possible if CFIUS involvement is pertinent; needs external information for verification.
– **Relevance**: True. CFIUS’s stance is critical to the merger’s approval process and timeline.
9. **Fact**: There is speculation that Biden might block the merger due to unresolved security issues.
– **Correctness**: Speculation exists based on context; cannot verify without external sources.
– **Relevance**: True. This speculation impacts the perceived probability of an announcement.
10. **Fact**: If no action is taken within the stipulated period, the merger might proceed unexpectedly.
– **Correctness**: Typical for regulatory reviews; merges can sometimes proceed without explicit approval if no action is taken by a deadline. Needs specific confirmation for this case.
– **Relevance**: True. This possibility affects the merger announcement’s timeline.
Overall verification of each fact requires additional external data not contained within the summary.
Fact-checked summary: The merger of U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel is under the review of U.S. President Joe Biden due to a lack of consensus among regulatory bodies, which is directly relevant to the timeline of an official announcement. The merger faces substantial opposition due to national security concerns and potential impacts on domestic steel production, affecting the likelihood of its announcement before January 21, 2025. Key stakeholders, such as the United Steelworkers labor union, have expressed apprehensions, which also influence the potential for the merger’s approval and announcement. Nippon Steel claims regional support, which might impact the merger’s outcome and timing. Additionally, the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) is divided on the matter, and there is speculation about President Biden potentially blocking the merger due to unresolved security issues. If no regulatory action is taken within a stipulated period, the merger might proceed unexpectedly, affecting the timeline for an official announcement.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.25
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate: The base rate of 0.25 considers the complex regulatory environment and opposition the merger faces. Historically, mergers of this scale, especially involving foreign entities in crucial industries like steel, have a lower probability of approval without addressing significant concerns, such as national security. Additionally, the divided views of CFIUS and strong stakeholder opposition decrease the likelihood of the merger’s announcement by January 21, 2025. However, if no regulatory action is taken in time, it might unexpectedly proceed.
Some potential divergent considerations that might effect the base rate: Potential factors that could cause the situation to differ from the base rate include rapid resolution of security concerns or political negotiations that may sway stakeholder opinions positively. Changes in the geopolitical or economic landscape that require a strategic alliance with Nippon Steel might also push the U.S. government to expedite approval. Moreover, if Nippon Steel successfully garners regional support, it could influence national perspectives, increasing the chances of a timely announcement.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Regulatory approval from U.S. authorities such as CFIUS, with a likelihood of low due to divided opinions and national security concerns.
– Addressing and mitigating national security concerns raised by stakeholders and regulatory bodies effectively, with a likelihood of low to moderate due to complexities involved.
– Gaining support or at least neutralizing opposition from influential stakeholders such as the United Steelworkers labor union, with a likelihood of moderate due to ongoing apprehensions.
– No intervention or blocking action from President Joe Biden on the merger, with a likelihood of moderate considering the current unresolved issues and political climate.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.2 – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.2 – confidence: 5)
Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.2
Base rate: 0.25 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.02
Confidence: 5
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.12
Reverse Mellers: 0.29
Theory of Mind: 0.3 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.99
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Model value : 0.2
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews).
A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The merger faces several significant challenges that make it unlikely for an announcement to be made by January 21, 2025. Key obstacles include the complex scrutiny from U.S. regulatory bodies, particularly CFIUS, due to national security concerns, along with opposition from stakeholders such as the United Steelworkers union. Historical patterns indicate lengthy reviews for cross-border mergers in strategic industries, especially when national security is involved. Additionally, the possibility of intervention by President Biden and the administration’s focus on domestic manufacturing further complicate the merger’s prospects. However, the prediction could change if national security concerns are resolved quicker than expected, or if political negotiations and changes in geopolitical or economic dynamics create a strategic imperative for a swift merger approval.
Given the agreement of the Dock Workers to salary increases, both union and the port will return to the bargaining table on Jan. 15, 2025 to discuss automation and other issues, what’s the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 57%, up from 45% yesterday.
Obtaining outside newsfeed from AskNews. Here are the current news articles relevant to the keywords “dock workers strike” from reliable sources:
1. **Title:** Amazon and Starbucks strikes in US portend escalation of global class conflict in 2025
**URL:** [wsws.org]https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/
2024/12/24/strikes.html
**Summary:** Thousands of Amazon and Starbucks workers in the US are on strike, demanding better wages, benefits, and working conditions. The strikes are a signal of a growing trend of class conflict in 2025, with workers worldwide fighting against exploitation by giant corporations and the capitalist oligarchy.
2. **Title:** From Amazon warehouse to port strikes, shippers and the DOT are preparing for an unpredictable 2025
**URL:** [nbcdfw.com]https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/
business/from-amazon-warehouse-to-port-strikes-shippers-and-the-dot-are-preparing-for-an-unpredictable-2025/300000/
**Summary:** The logistics industry is bracing for another year of disruption in 2025, with supply chain strikes and labor battles poised to cause trade shocks. Amazon warehouse workers are striking, and a potential strike by dock workers at 36 ports could bring East and Gulf Coast ports to a standstill.
3. **Title:** The Port Strike Ended — Now What?
**URL:** [taranganews.com]https://www.taranganews.com/the-port-strike-ended-now-what/
**Summary:** The recent port strike in the U.S. has ended, but businesses should be prepared for the possibility of another strike. The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) went on strike for the first time since 1977, and if an agreement is not reached by January 15, 2025, the dockworkers could strike again.
4. **Title:** National labor board files for injunction to speed up Post-Gazette strike resolution
**URL:** [wesa.fm]https://www.wesa.fm/national-labor-board-files-for-injunction-to-speed-up-post-gazette-strike-resolution
**Summary:** The National Labor Relations Board has filed for an injunction to speed up the resolution of the Post-Gazette strike. If approved, the injunction would require the Post-Gazette to restore the previous contract and negotiate in good faith with the union for a new one, as the strike continues to affect workers.
5. **Title:** Dockworkers to Strike in Montreal as Uncertainty Also Hangs Over Vancouver
**URL:** [maritime-executive.com]https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/dockworkers-to-strike-in-montreal-as-uncertainty-also-hangs-over-vancouver
**Summary:** Canada’s ports are facing labor disputes on both coasts, with longshoremen and other workers demanding recognition for their role in keeping supply chains moving during the pandemic. The situation in the U.S. is similarly tense, with ongoing negotiations and potential strikes looming as 2025 approaches.
*Generated by AI at AskNews on December 25, 2024 03:06 PM. Wanna see more? Checkout our custom written stories and state of the art Event Tracking https://asknews.app*
Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“The current newsfeed highlights a series of labor strikes and potential industrial actions signaling a period of labor unrest and class conflict. Workers at Amazon and Starbucks in the US are striking for better conditions, reflecting a broader global trend against corporate exploitation. The logistics sector is bracing for disruptions, particularly with the potential for dock workers at 36 US ports to strike in early 2025, which could impact the East and Gulf Coast ports. Although a recent port strike by the International Longshoremen’s Association has ended, there’s a looming threat of further strikes if negotiations fail. In Canada, labor disputes are noted in Montreal and Vancouver, further highlighting the widespread unrest. Meanwhile, the National Labor Relations Board is intervening in the Post-Gazette strike to expedite its resolution, aiming to restore contracts and promote fair negotiations. These developments point to an unstable labor landscape as 2025 approaches.”
Fact-checking news summary: Here is a list of specific facts stated in the summary, along with assessments of their correctness and relevance:
1. Fact: Workers at Amazon and Starbucks in the US are striking for better conditions.
– Correctness: This statement is likely true, given historical trends of worker strikes and demands at these companies.
– Relevance: False. While it contributes to the general atmosphere of labor unrest, it does not directly affect the likelihood of a dock workers’ strike.
2. Fact: The logistics sector is bracing for disruptions, particularly with the potential for dock workers at 36 US ports to strike in early 2025.
– Correctness: Potential disruptions are likely, and preparations by the logistics sector are plausible if past patterns continue.
– Relevance: True. This is directly relevant to assessing the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
3. Fact: A recent port strike by the International Longshoremen’s Association has ended.
– Correctness: Assuming this report is accurate, this fact is true.
– Relevance: True. The resolution of a recent strike could influence negotiations and future strike likelihood.
4. Fact: There’s a looming threat of further strikes if negotiations fail.
– Correctness: True. This is a common outcome when negotiations do not resolve key issues.
– Relevance: True. It is directly relevant to the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
5. Fact: Labor disputes are noted in Montreal and Vancouver, Canada.
– Correctness: This can be true as labor disputes often occur in major ports, though verification with current data is required.
– Relevance: False. Labor disputes in Canada do not directly impact US dock worker negotiations but do highlight broader trends.
6. Fact: The National Labor Relations Board is intervening in the Post-Gazette strike to expedite its resolution.
– Correctness: This is plausible and falls within the jurisdiction of the National Labor Relations Board.
– Relevance: False. While demonstrating broader labor unrest or intervention, this fact is not directly related to the US dock workers or their negotiations.
7. Fact: These developments point to an unstable labor landscape as 2025 approaches.
– Correctness: True, considering the multiple strikes and potential disputes mentioned.
– Relevance: True. This context is relevant as it provides insight into the broader environment affecting labor relations and the likelihood of strikes.
Fact-checked summary: The logistics sector is preparing for potential disruptions due to the possibility of dock workers at 36 US ports striking in early 2025. The recent conclusion of a port strike by the International Longshoremen’s Association may influence upcoming negotiations and affect the likelihood of future strikes. If negotiations fail to resolve key issues, there is a genuine threat of further strikes, which is common in such situations. Additionally, an unstable labor landscape is emerging as 2025 approaches, characterized by multiple ongoing strikes and potential disputes, making it an important context for assessing the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.4
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate of 0.4 is derived from considering the historical frequency of port strikes when negotiations have been contentious, combined with the current labor landscape. There have been recent instances in which labor disputes have led to strikes, and the current unstable labor environment further contributes to the likelihood. Additionally, the recent conclusion of a port strike by the International Longshoremen’s Association might influence the atmosphere, potentially making a strike in early 2025 more likely if similar issues remain unresolved.
Some potential divergent considerations that might effect the base rate: Factors that could cause the resolution to diverge from the base rate include successful negotiations that satisfy the dock workers’ demands, which would prevent a strike. Furthermore, government intervention or legal proceedings could delay or prevent a strike. Alternatively, changes in the economic or political climate could alter the likelihood of either party taking a hardline stance, influencing whether a strike occurs.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Negotiations between the dock workers and port authorities must fail to resolve key issues. Likelihood: Possible.
– Dock workers must vote in favor of a strike. Likelihood: Likely.
– No legal or government intervention occurs to prevent the strike.
Likelihood: Possible.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.65 – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.6 – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.55 – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.6
Base rate: 0.4 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.04
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.64
Reverse Mellers: 0.57
Theory of Mind: 0.5 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.001
Close Type: B (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Model value: 0.57
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews).
A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The reasoning behind the prediction of a potential strike by dock workers in Q1 2025 hinges on several critical factors. The current labor environment is unstable, with multiple ongoing labor disputes and historical precedents of strikes, such as those by the International Longshoremen’s Association, suggesting a high likelihood of strike action if negotiations fail. The unresolved issues related to automation pose significant challenges, as these involve long-term job security, and are more complex than salary negotiations despite recent resolutions. The logistics sector’s preparation for disruptions implies a genuine threat of a strike, especially if negotiations beginning January 15 do not yield satisfactory results. However, the possibility of a strike could be mitigated by successful negotiations, government intervention due to the economic significance of ports, or changing economic conditions discouraging strike action. Furthermore, recent goodwill from salary agreements and alternative pressure tactics by unions could avert a strike.
How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today,
* less than 172: 15%
* between 172 and 205: 45%
* between 206 and 240: 30%
* more than 240: 10%
Obtaining outside newsfeed from AskNews. Here are the current news articles relevant to the keywords “Conservative Party Canada election” from reliable sources:
1. **Title:** Canada Heads Towards Spring Federal Elections
**URL:** [radio-canada.ca]https://www.radio-canada.ca/en/2024/12/24/canada-heads-towards-spring-federal-elections
**Summary:** Canada is heading towards a spring federal election, as the New Democratic Party (NDP) has promised to bring down the Liberal government early next year. Political observers suggest that the Conservatives, currently leading in the polls, are well-positioned to capitalize on the situation. The exact timing of the election remains uncertain, but it is likely to occur in April or May 2025.
2. **Title:** Trudeau faces growing calls to resign as party prepares for likely election defeat
**URL:** [tribune.com.pk]https://www.tribune.com.pk/
news/2024/12/23/trudeau-faces-growing-calls-to-resign-as-party-prepares-for-likely-election-defeat
**Summary:** Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is facing increasing pressure to resign as his party, the Liberals, prepares for a likely election defeat. With the Conservatives leading in the polls, more than 50 Liberal MPs from Ontario have expressed that Trudeau should step down. The opposition parties are urging for an election to produce a stable government.
3. **Title:** Canada’s 2025 Elections: A Crucial Year Amidst Conservative Rise and Growing Concerns
**URL:** [ledevoir.com]https://www.ledevoir.com/en/
news/2024/12/14/canadas-2025-elections-a-crucial-year-amidst-conservative-rise-and-growing-concerns
**Summary:** Jagmeet Singh, leader of the New Democratic Party, highlights the challenges posed by the rise of the Conservatives in the upcoming 2025 elections. Singh attributes this shift to growing concerns about the cost of living, including inflation and housing issues, which are pushing voters towards right-wing parties.
4. **Title:** 2025 Canada Federal Election Odds – Conservatives to Regain Power?
**URL:** [thesportsgeek.com]https://www.thesportsgeek.com
/news/2024/12/03/2025-canada-federal-election-odds-conservatives-to-regain-power
**Summary:** Predictions for the 2025 Canada federal election suggest a significant win for the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre. Current polls indicate a high probability of Conservative success, driven by dissatisfaction with Trudeau’s government and various scandals. The election is scheduled for October 2025.
5. **Title:** Conservatives, conspiracies, and the coming election
**URL:** [nationalobserver.com]https://www.nationalobserver.com/
news/2024/12/17/conservatives-conspiracies-and-the-coming-election
**Summary:** The Conservative Party of Canada is leveraging conspiracy theories to attack the government’s climate policy as the election approaches. This strategy aims to galvanize support among right-wing voters by framing the government’s actions as part of a broader “woke agenda.”
*Generated by AI at AskNews on December 25, 2024 03:07 PM. Wanna see more? Checkout our custom written stories and state of the art Event Tracking https://asknews.app*
Summarizing outside newsfeed: “Recent reports indicate that Canada may be heading toward a spring federal election, with increasing pressure on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau amid growing calls for his resignation due to anticipated election challenges for the Liberal Party. The New Democratic Party (NDP) has indicated plans to force an early election, likely in April or May 2025, to unsettle the current government, while Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre is reportedly well-positioned as the Conservatives lead in polls, fueled by public dissatisfaction with Trudeau and various government scandals. Observers note that economic issues such as inflation and housing costs are motivating a shift toward the Conservatives. Meanwhile, there are also reports that the Conservatives are using controversial strategies, including leveraging conspiracy theories, to appeal to right-wing voters. The election is officially scheduled for October 2025, although timelines remain uncertain.”
Fact-checking news summary: Let’s break down the summary into specific facts, assess whether they are true or false, and determine their relevance to the question of how many seats the Conservative Party will win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election.
1. **Fact: Canada may be heading toward a spring federal election.**
– **True/False:** True, there are reports indicating the possibility of an early election.
– **Relevance:** True, relevant as it discusses the timing of the election, which can affect electoral outcomes.
2. **Fact: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is facing increasing pressure amid calls for his resignation.**
– **True/False:** True, there have been reports of challenges facing Trudeau and his leadership.
– **Relevance:** True, relevant as it affects the political landscape and potentially the election results.
3. **Fact: The New Democratic Party (NDP) plans to force an early election likely in April or May 2025.**
– **True/False:** True, the NDP has discussed triggering an election, though the exact timing is uncertain.
– **Relevance:** True, relevant as it relates to the timing of the election that could influence outcomes.
4. **Fact: Pierre Poilievre is the leader of the Conservative Party.**
– **True/False:** True, Pierre Poilievre is indeed the leader of the Conservative Party.
– **Relevance:** True, relevant as leadership influences voter preferences and potential seat wins.
5. **Fact: Conservatives lead in polls due to public dissatisfaction and government scandals.**
– **True/False:** Generally True, polls have shown Conservative leads at times, attributed to various factors including dissatisfaction.
– **Relevance:** True, relevant as it suggests potential electoral gains for Conservatives.
6. **Fact: Economic issues such as inflation and housing costs are motivating a shift toward the Conservatives.**
– **True/False:** True, economic issues are frequently cited as influencing voter behavior toward the Conservatives.
– **Relevance:** True, relevant since it points to possible voter motivations that could affect election results.
7. **Fact: Conservatives are using controversial strategies, including leveraging conspiracy theories.**
– **True/False:** Partially True, there have been reports of this, though it’s subject to interpretation and political bias.
– **Relevance:** True, could potentially affect voter bases and turnout, impacting seat counts.
8. **Fact: The election is officially scheduled for October 2025.**
– **True/False:** True, under Canada’s fixed election laws, the next election is scheduled for October 2025.
– **Relevance:** True, relevant for understanding the overall electoral timeline and planning.
9. **Fact: Timelines for the election remain uncertain.**
– **True/False:** True, despite a scheduled date, political dynamics could change timelines.
– **Relevance:** True, relevant as the timing of the election may influence strategic planning and outcomes.
Overall, each fact is relevant in understanding the conditions and dynamics likely to influence how many seats the Conservative Party may win.
Fact-checked summary: The Conservative Party’s prospects in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election are influenced by several factors. The upcoming federal election, officially scheduled for October 2025, could potentially occur earlier, as reports suggest the possibility of an election in spring 2025. Political dynamics, such as increasing pressure on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and challenges to his leadership, add uncertainty and could affect election outcomes. Pierre Poilievre leads the Conservative Party, and current polling indicates they are leading due to factors such as public dissatisfaction and government scandals. Economic issues, particularly inflation and housing costs, are motivating voter shifts toward the Conservatives, potentially increasing their seat count. While timelines remain uncertain, these elements are critical in assessing how many seats the Conservative Party might win.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.25, “between 172 and 205”: 0.45, “between 206 and 240”: 0.2, “more than 240”: 0.1] – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.1, “between 172 and 205”: 0.45, “between 206 and 240”: 0.35, “more than 240”: 0.1] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.15, “between 172 and 205”: 0.4, “between 206 and 240”: 0.3, “more than 240”: 0.15] – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* less than 172: 0.15
* between 172 and 205: 0.45
* between 206 and 240: 0.3
* more than 240: 0.1
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews).
A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The summaries provided indicate that the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, is currently leading in polls due to public dissatisfaction with the Liberal government, driven by issues such as inflation and housing costs. However, while a substantial gain in seats is anticipated, historical trends show that dramatic shifts are unlikely, and achieving an unprecedented number of seats, such as over 240, remains improbable. Uncertainty in election timing and the potential for significant shifts in public opinion or unforeseen political events add variability to the outcome, with predictions centering around a moderate gain of seats, possibly ranging from 172 to 205. On the other hand, factors such as unreliable polling data, election timing, campaign dynamics, and regional challenges, as well as potential policy shifts by the Liberal Party, could alter these projections significantly.
Runtime: 179 seconds.
Past Multi-AI Oracle Forecasts
Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports
Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
