The International Longshoremen’s Association returned to the bargaining table on Jan. 15, 2025 to discuss automation and other issues. What’s the probability of a strike in Q1 2025?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 10%.
Prompt:
Given the agreement of the US Dock Workers (International Longshoremen’s Association) to salary increases, both union and the port returned to the bargaining table on Jan. 15, 2025 to discuss automation and other issues. What’s the probability of a strike in Q1 2025. 0.1?
Obtaining outside newsfeed. News from various sources. Based on the most recent news articles, here’s a summary of the US dockworkers situation:
A major potential crisis was averted in January 2025 when the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) reached a tentative six-year contract agreement. The deal covers approximately 45,000 dock workers across East Coast and Gulf Coast ports. This agreement came after tensions had escalated to the point where workers were threatening to strike on January 15, 2025.
The resolution follows a significant strike that occurred on October 1, 2024, which was historic as it marked the first time in nearly 50 years that longshoremen had walked off the job, affecting 36 ports across the eastern seaboard. That work stoppage had raised concerns about supply chain disruptions and potential impacts on various industries, including motorcycle shipments and other consumer goods.
The new tentative contract agreement addresses several contentious issues, including automation concerns, and represents a significant breakthrough in labor relations at America’s ports. This resolution helps ensure stability in port operations, which is crucial for maintaining supply chains and international trade through major U.S. maritime facilities.
[Note: The articles are showing some date inconsistencies that may be due to predictive or simulated content, but I’ve focused on the most coherent narrative from the available information.]
Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“In January 2025, the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) reached a tentative six-year contract agreement, averting a potential strike by 45,000 dock workers across East and Gulf Coast ports. This resolution came after a significant strike on October 1, 2024, the first in nearly 50 years, which had disrupted 36 ports and raised concerns about supply chain stability. The new agreement addresses contentious issues, including automation, and is seen as a major breakthrough in labor relations, ensuring stability at U.S. ports crucial for international trade. Note that the information may contain inconsistencies due to potential predictive content.”
Fact-checking news summary:
Sure, let’s break down the summary and identify specific facts to evaluate them:
1. **Fact**: In January 2025, the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) reached a tentative six-year contract agreement.
– **Correctness**: Seems externally and internally consistent within the provided information.
– **Importance**: Important to the resolution of the question.
– **Relevance**: True, it directly impacts the likelihood of a strike.
2. **Fact**: This agreement averted a potential strike by 45,000 dock workers across East and Gulf Coast ports.
– **Correctness**: Internally consistent, assuming the agreement prevents the strike.
– **Importance**: Critical to understanding the probability of a strike.
– **Relevance**: True, this is directly relevant to the likelihood of a strike.
3. **Fact**: A significant strike occurred on October 1, 2024, which was the first in nearly 50 years.
– **Correctness**: Internally consistent, though external verification is required for historical data.
– **Importance**: Important, as it sets context for the negotiations.
– **Relevance**: True, as past strike actions influence future strike probability.
4. **Fact**: The October 2024 strike disrupted 36 ports and raised concerns about supply chain stability.
– **Correctness**: Internally consistent, but would require external verification for specifics.
– **Importance**: Important, as it demonstrates the impact of labor disputes.
– **Relevance**: True, it’s relevant since disruption can influence future contract agreements and strike probabilities.
5. **Fact**: The new agreement addresses contentious issues, including automation.
– **Correctness**: Internally consistent within the summary.
– **Importance**: Important, as resolving contentious issues such as automation could influence labor stability.
– **Relevance**: True, addressing automation is pertinent to reducing strike likelihood.
6. **Fact**: The agreement is seen as a major breakthrough in labor relations, ensuring stability at U.S. ports crucial for international trade.
– **Correctness**: Internally consistent, though subjective.
– **Importance**: Important, as it indicates a reduction in strike probability.
– **Relevance**: True, labor peace is relevant to strike probability and stability.
Based on the evaluation of these facts, the summary suggests a low probability of a strike in Q1 2025, given the importance and relevance of the newly reached agreement addressing key issues like automation.
Fact-checked summary:
The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) reached a tentative six-year contract agreement in January 2025, averting a potential strike by 45,000 dock workers across East and Gulf Coast ports, which is crucial in determining the likelihood of a strike. This agreement, seen as a major breakthrough in labor relations, addresses contentious issues including automation, and ensures stability at U.S. ports, which are vital for international trade. Considering the agreement’s importance and its resolution of key issues, the probability of a strike occurring in Q1 2025 is suggested to be low.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 7)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.1 – confidence: 7)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.05 – confidence: 8)
Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.1
Base rate: 0.05 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.04
Confidence: 7
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.04
Reverse Mellers: 0.19
Theory of Mind: 0.15 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.11
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Model value: 10%
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The recently reached tentative six-year contract agreement between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) in January 2025 significantly reduces the likelihood of a strike at U.S. ports. This agreement is seen as a major breakthrough in addressing key issues such as automation, thereby providing stability across East and Gulf Coast ports. Historical data suggests that once such agreements are reached, the probability of strikes shortly afterward is low, as these typically assure labor peace. Despite this, potential challenges remain, including the risk of rank-and-file rejection of the agreement, unresolved local disputes, or unforeseen issues during implementation, which could reignite tensions or lead to localized strikes. Furthermore, external economic pressures and the validity of the newsfeed source could impact the prediction’s accuracy.
How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
* less than 172: 33%
* between 172 and 205: 38%
* between 206 and 240: 19%
* more than 240: 10%
Obtaining outside newsfeed. News from various sources:
Based on the provided news articles, here’s a summary of the key points about Canada’s upcoming election:
Recent polling shows some shifting dynamics in Canadian politics following Justin Trudeau’s announcement that he will step down as Prime Minister. According to a Research Co. survey, nearly one in four voters are rethinking their choices after Trudeau’s resignation announcement, potentially impacting the Conservative Party’s previously strong lead.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has been maintaining his “axe the tax” campaign message while adding more policy details as an election approaches. He has also taken a strong stance against former U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments about Canada, particularly rejecting the notion of Canada becoming the “51st state” and emphasizing his commitment to defending Canadian interests.
There’s particular attention on how U.S.-Canada relations could impact the upcoming election, with concerns about potential trade tensions if Trump returns to office. This has forced Poilievre, who has been popular with the American right, to balance his conservative messaging with a strong nationalist stance defending Canadian sovereignty.
The political landscape appears to be in flux, with the Conservatives showing some decline in their polling lead, though they remain ahead. The timing of the next federal election could be as soon as March 10, and parties are actively preparing their campaign strategies in what promises to be a significant turning point in Canadian politics.
Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“Recent developments in Canadian politics indicate a shifting landscape following Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s announcement of his resignation. A Research Co. survey suggests that nearly a quarter of voters are reconsidering their choices, possibly affecting the Conservative Party’s previously strong lead. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre continues his “axe the tax” campaign while addressing remarks by former U.S. President Donald Trump about Canada, rejecting the idea of Canada as the “51st state” and affirming his commitment to Canadian sovereignty. With the possibility of trade tensions if Trump returns to office, Poilievre faces the challenge of balancing conservative messaging with nationalistic priorities. Although the Conservatives’ lead in the polls has decreased, they remain ahead as parties prepare for a potential federal election as early as March 10, marking a significant moment in Canadian politics.”
Fact-checking news summary:
Here is a list of specific facts from the summary, along with their verification, importance, and relevance to the outcome:
1. **Fact**: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation.
– **Verification**: False (As of my last update in October 2023, Justin Trudeau had not announced his resignation as Prime Minister.)
– **Importance**: Critical
– **Relevance**: False
2. **Fact**: A Research Co. survey suggests that nearly a quarter of voters are reconsidering their choices.
– **Verification**: Cannot be verified (This claim cannot be verified without access to specific survey data from Research Co.)
– **Importance**: Important
– **Relevance**: True
3. **Fact**: The Conservative Party had a previously strong lead.
– **Verification**: True (The Conservative Party has had leads in some polls historically.)
– **Importance**: Important
– **Relevance**: True
4. **Fact**: Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre continues his “axe the tax” campaign.
– **Verification**: True (Pierre Poilievre is known for promoting this slogan and policy stance.)
– **Importance**: Lesser
– **Relevance**: True
5. **Fact**: Pierre Poilievre addressed remarks by former U.S. President Donald Trump about Canada.
– **Verification**: Cannot be verified (Specific statements from Poilievre in response to Trump’s remarks would need to be checked with recent news sources.)
– **Importance**: Lesser
– **Relevance**: False
6. **Fact**: Former U.S. President Donald Trump called Canada the “51st state.”
– **Verification**: Cannot be verified (This specific remark would require confirmation from recent news coverage or Trump’s public statements.)
– **Importance**: Unimportant
– **Relevance**: False
7. **Fact**: Pierre Poilievre affirmed his commitment to Canadian sovereignty.
– **Verification**: True (As a general stance, Poilievre likely affirms Canadian sovereignty, but specific assertions would need current sourcing.)
– **Importance**: Unimportant
– **Relevance**: False
8. **Fact**: There is a possibility of trade tensions if Trump returns to office.
– **Verification**: True (The potential for trade tensions under a Trump administration is considered likely by some experts.)
– **Importance**: Lesser
– **Relevance**: False
9. **Fact**: The Conservatives’ lead in the polls has decreased.
– **Verification**: True (Poll standings can fluctuate, and a decrease in lead is plausible based on political shifts.)
– **Importance**: Important
– **Relevance**: True
10. **Fact**: A potential federal election could occur as early as March 10.
– **Verification**: False (Specific election dates would need formal announcement from the Governor General.)
– **Importance**: Critical
– **Relevance**: True
Fact-checked summary:
In considering the future success of the Conservative Party in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election, it is relevant and true that the Conservative Party had a previously strong lead, which is important as it suggests a solid foundation of support. However, this lead has reportedly decreased, indicating that current political dynamics might be shifting, which is also important for understanding the evolving political landscape. Additionally, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s ongoing “axe the tax” campaign confirms his continued push for specific policy stances, though this is of lesser importance relative to the party’s standings in the polls. These factual elements highlight the complexity of predicting electoral outcomes and emphasize the importance of considering both historical strength and present challenges faced by the party.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.35, “between 172 and 205”: 0.4, “between 206 and 240”: 0.2, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 4)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.25, “between 172 and 205”: 0.45, “between 206 and 240”: 0.25, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.25, “between 172 and 205”: 0.35, “between 206 and 240”: 0.3, “more than 240”: 0.1] – confidence: 5)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 5
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* less than 172: 26%
* between 172 and 205: 42%
* between 206 and 240: 26%
* more than 240: 6%
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The reasoning across the different analyses highlights several key points about the Conservative Party’s prospects. Historically, the party has had a strong base of support in Canada, but recent polls suggest a decline in their lead, indicating potential challenges ahead. Factors such as Pierre Poilievre’s ‘axe the tax’ campaign could polarize the electorate, and while it focuses on policy, its actual impact remains uncertain. The current political climate and any major events or scandals could also sway voter sentiment rapidly before the election, making prediction difficult. Moreover, despite the party’s past successes, achieving an overwhelming majority is mathematically challenging due to the large number of seats in the House of Commons. Regional support variations and changes in voter turnout patterns could further influence the outcomes unexpectedly. Overall, the Conservative Party’s success will depend on numerous dynamic factors, including campaign efficacy and unforeseen events leading up to the election.
Runtime for both questions on this page: 121 seconds.
Past Multi-AI Oracle Forecasts
Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports
Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
