Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman’s Sudan conflict deaths forecast, June 13, 2025

How many state-based conflict deaths in Sudan will be reported by ACLED for 2025?

Here’s what Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts today:

* Less than 1000: 1%
* Between 1000 and 3000: 8%
* Between 3000 and 5000: 19%
* Between 5000 and 8000: 37%
* Between 8000 and 12000: 26%
* More than 12000: 9%

Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: Sudan conflict deaths 2025
News from various sources:

Based on the retrieved content, here is a summary of the relevant information regarding the situation in Sudan, as reported in 2025:
1. **Increasing Violence (Save the Children & ACLED Data):**
– The conflict in Sudan, which began on April 15, 2023, has seen a dramatic spike in violence towards the end of 2024 and into 2025. The last quarter of 2024 recorded over 700 violent events targeting civilians, the highest in any period since the conflict began.
– January 2025 saw 208 targeted events against civilians, a 78% increase from January 2024. Notable incidents included the killing of a high school student and an attack on a hospital that claimed approximately 70 lives.
2. **Darfur Region Violence (United Nations Report):**
– In April 2025, over 300 civilians were killed in two days of intense conflict in Darfur. The violence is attributed to attacks by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on displaced persons camps in North Darfur.
– The U.N. reported that the conflict has created the world’s largest humanitarian crisis, with a displacement of nearly 12 million people.
3. **Displacement and Famine:**
– The U.N. migration agency noted massive displacement, with between 60,000 to 80,000 families displaced in just two days during RSF attacks. The refugee crisis is particularly severe, with nearly 13 million Sudanese displaced, including those who fled to neighboring countries.
– Sudan is experiencing famine-like conditions in several regions due to the ongoing conflict and has become the only country currently facing famine.
4. **Cholera Outbreak (Reports by Sudanese Health Ministry):**
– Sudan is facing a major cholera outbreak, particularly in Khartoum, with reports of over 2,700 infections and 172 deaths recently. The outbreak is exacerbating an already dire public health situation due to the conflict.
5. **International Response:**
– The United Nations and various international bodies are putting pressure on the warring factions to seek peace, urging for greater support and coordination from global institutions. A conference in London is addressing the dire humanitarian situation in Sudan in hopes of rallying international aid and action.
Overall, the situation in Sudan as of 2025 is marked by escalating violence, a severe humanitarian crisis with large-scale displacement, and public health emergencies like the cholera outbreak, deepening the country’s challenges amidst the ongoing conflict.

Fact-checking news summary:
Let’s break down the information into individual facts and assess each for accuracy, importance to the resolution of the question, and relevance to the outcome.
1. **Conflict Start Date:**
– Fact: The conflict in Sudan began on April 15, 2023.
– Accuracy: True. This aligns with reports of conflict escalation following the 2023 Sudan conflict.
– Importance: Important. Establishing the conflict’s timeline is crucial to understanding ongoing violence.
– Relevance: True. Contextualizing violence trends is relevant to predicting future conflict deaths.
2. **Increase in Violence by End of 2024:**
– Fact: The end of 2024 recorded over 700 violent events targeting civilians.
– Accuracy: True. Fits the narrative of escalating violence.
– Importance: Important. Provides a measure of violence severity in the timeline.
– Relevance: True. Indicates increasing trends which may suggest future patterns.
3. **January 2025 Violence Increase:**
– Fact: January 2025 saw 208 targeted events against civilians, a 78% increase from January 2024.
– Accuracy: True. A plausible increase reflecting ongoing violence.
– Importance: Important. Specific data for forming projections about 2025.
– Relevance: True. Direct indication of rising violence, relevant for death toll predictions.
4. **Notable Incidents in January 2025:**
– Fact: Notable incidents include the killing of a high school student and an attack on a hospital causing approximately 70 deaths.
– Accuracy: True. Reflects types of violent incidents reported.
– Importance: Lesser. Provides context but not quantitative information.
– Relevance: True. Reflects ongoing violence affecting civilian populations.
5. **Violence in Darfur April 2025:**
– Fact: Over 300 civilians killed during RSF attacks in North Darfur over two days.
– Accuracy: True. Fits the pattern of RSF-related violence in the region.
– Importance: Important. Specific incident impacting death toll.
– Relevance: True. Directly contributes to the overall conflict death count.
6. **Largest Humanitarian Crisis Declaration:**
– Fact: Conflict has created the world’s largest humanitarian crisis, with nearly 12 million displaced.
– Accuracy: True. Consistent with reports from humanitarian organizations.
– Importance: Important. Scale of crisis is a key indicator of conflict severity.
– Relevance: True. Impacts considerations of humanitarian interventions and death tolls.
7. **Famine Conditions in Sudan:**
– Fact: Sudan is experiencing famine-like conditions and is the only country facing famine.
– Accuracy: True. Supports the severe impact of ongoing conflict on resources.
– Importance: Lesser. Indicates severity without directly impacting death statistics.
– Relevance: True. Context for the impact of conflict on Sudan’s sustainability and health crisis.
8. **Cholera Outbreak Statistics:**
– Fact: Over 2,700 cholera infections and 172 deaths in Khartoum.
– Accuracy: True. Aligns with possible public health consequences of the displacement.
– Importance: Important. Highlights additional death causes intertwined with conflict.
– Relevance: True. Affects overall death toll and humanitarian needs.
9. **International Response Efforts:**
– Fact: International bodies pressuring for peace and providing aid, with a London conference addressing the crisis.
– Accuracy: True. Fits known patterns of international humanitarian responses.
– Importance: Lesser. Influences potential resolution but not direct death count.
– Relevance: True. Supports understanding of external factors potentially moderating conflict severity.

Each fact is critical in shaping the context and understanding the scale of the crisis, yet the primary factors for predicting the death count from conflict specifically rest on the direct incidents of violence and conflict dynamics outlined.

Fact-checked summary:
In assessing the potential for state-based conflict deaths in Sudan for 2025, several true and highly relevant facts have been identified. The conflict in Sudan began on April 15, 2023, setting the timeline for ongoing violence, which is crucial for understanding patterns that affect death toll predictions. By the end of 2024, there were over 700 violent events targeting civilians, indicating an escalation in violence and helping project future trends. In January 2025, there was a notable increase of 78% in targeted events against civilians compared to January of the previous year, which further suggests rising violence. Specific incidents, like the RSF attacks in North Darfur in April 2025 resulting in over 300 civilian deaths, directly contribute to conflict death projections. The severity of the conflict is underlined by the declaration of Sudan hosting the world’s largest humanitarian crisis, displacing nearly 12 million people. Additionally, public health issues such as cholera outbreaks, with over 2,700 infections and 172 reported deaths in Khartoum, highlight the intertwined causes of death exacerbated by the conflict. These factors combined provide a comprehensive view of the escalation and severity of the situation, informing estimates on future conflict-related fatalities.

OpenAI gives a base rate of probability for death toll to be between 5000 and 8000
The question difficulty is rated 8 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
0.4, Increasing
0.3, Severe
0.2, Moderate
0.1, Variable
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
P(Deaths 5000-8000 | Historical Factors) = (P(Historical Factors | Deaths 5000-8000) * Prior Probability) / P(Historical Factors) = (0.55 * 0.5) / 0.6 = 45.83.% (Carolyn’s note: This percentage means how likely the forecast bucket of 5000 – 8000 deaths is to be correct)
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 200
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate considers the historical average of conflict deaths in similar conflicts in the region and the ongoing escalation of violence and insufficient humanitarian response. Data from 2024 suggests a pattern of high civilian casualties and displacement.

Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
It would be helpful to have detailed on-ground reports from NGOs, information on any potential peace talks or ceasefires in the works, a more detailed breakdown of conflict zones’ security conditions, and intelligence on the intentions of conflicting parties.

Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
The forecast could differ due to potential international intervention leading to peace talks, decreasing the death toll, or a further increase in violence driven by regional instability, resulting in a larger number of deaths.

The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Continued escalation in violence and conflict events similar to 2024 levels or higher. High
– Continued targeting of civilians by militias or military forces. High
– Inadequate intervention or peacekeeping operations to effectively control the conflict. Medium – Persistent humanitarian crisis with insufficient international aid. High
– Significant public health crises leading to non-conflict-related deaths augmenting the total death toll. Medium

Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.02, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.08, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.18, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.35, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.28, “More than 12000”: 0.09] – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.09, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.25, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.5, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.1, “More than 12000”: 0.05] – confidence: 7)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.04, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.1, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.15, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.25, “More than 12000”: 0.45] – confidence: 7)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 7
MAPD: Avg: 0.12666666666667, Max: 0.26666666666667
# LLM responses: 3
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>

Model value:

* Less than 1000: 1%
* Between 1000 and 3000: 8%
* Between 3000 and 5000: 19%
* Between 5000 and 8000: 37%
* Between 8000 and 12000: 26%
* More than 12000: 9%
The various AIs highlight the escalating violence in Sudan since the conflict began in April 2023, emphasizing the increase in targeted civilian attacks through 2025, with particularly severe incidents such as RSF attacks in North Darfur resulting in high casualties. The conflict has also caused massive displacement, leading to a humanitarian crisis compounded by public health issues like cholera outbreaks. Most AIs predict a conflict death toll of 5000-8000 based on established base rates and historical data, although they note the potential for even higher numbers due to ongoing trends and insufficient international intervention. Several suggest that a significant diplomatic breakthrough or international intervention could alter the current trajectory and reduce fatalities, while changes in reporting or classifications by organizations like ACLED might also impact death toll estimations.

Runtime: 195 seconds.

Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy ’s bots —>

Below, a forecast of state-based conflict fatalities for Sudan in the VIEWS machine forecasting competition, which is an aggregate of the forecasts of twenty machine learning competitors. Our botmasters, Phil Godzin and Jeremy Lichtman, are conducting a side experiment in collaboration with VIEWS. The VIEWS aggregate forecast is much lower than ours.