Updates from BestWorld’s AI Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman of March 5, 2025

Coming soon: How many conflict deaths will there be in Sudan in 2025? Jeremy’s Multi-AI Oracle will compete with the machine forecasting bots of the
VIEWS competition.

Background on VIEWS:  Near the end of 2024, the latest forecasting competition of the Violence and Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS) was launched. On Dec. 4, 2024, a group of machine forecasting experts involved in VIEWS observed Jeremy’s demonstration of his Multi-AI Oracle. Although it was too late for him to sign up as a VIEWS competitor, they urged him to run a side competition for everyone’s benefit. Jeremy chose their Sudan conflict deaths question. Interactive Views dashboard here.  

Background on the Sudan conflict, as evaluated by Jeremy last year:

(1) The importance of the Sahel, a region in Africa that includes Sudan:
Why the Sahel Actually Matters (Possibly To You, Too)
(2) April 29, 2024: Today, a Russian diplomat is negotiating gold mining with the Sudanese Minister of Minerals.
(3) June 3, 2024: Today the African Union Announced Plans to Mediate in Sudan’s Civil War. Sept. 11, 2024 Over 100K starvation deaths 96% likely in Sudan by 1 Jan 2025

A the bottom of this page, a screenshot of VIEWS forecasts for state-based conflict fatalities in Sudan through January 2028.

How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?

Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle.  How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?

Model value:
* less than 172: 45%
* between 172 and 205: 35%
* between 206 and 240: 15%
* more than 240: 5%

Obtaining outside newsfeed. News from various sources:
Based on the provided news articles, here’s a summary of the key points about Canada’s upcoming election:

The Conservative Party’s previously strong lead in polling has significantly narrowed due to recent developments, particularly Donald Trump’s threats of tariffs against Canada. The Liberal Party, potentially under new leadership from Mark Carney (who may become leader on March 9), has seen a surge in support, closing what was once a 20-point polling deficit to make the race competitive.

Key recent developments:
– Trump’s recent threats against Canada have boosted Liberal Party support, with many Canadians rallying around a more protective stance against U.S. aggression
– Mark Carney, potential new Liberal leader, has indicated willingness to call an early election if he becomes leader
– In provincial politics, Ontario’s Progressive Conservative Party under Doug Ford just won a third consecutive majority government, though with fewer seats than their previous victory
The political landscape appears to be shifting from what was expected to be a “change election” to what some are calling a “protect me from change election,” with economic security and Canada-U.S. relations becoming central issues. The Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, is facing new challenges in what previously looked like a clear path to victory.

Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“In recent developments concerning Canada’s political landscape, the Conservative Party’s former polling lead has significantly diminished amidst Donald Trump’s tariff threats against Canada, which have bolstered the Liberal Party’s support as they adopt a protective stance against perceived U.S. aggression. Speculation surrounds Mark Carney potentially taking leadership of the Liberal Party, with the possibility of an early election being called under his leadership. Provincial politics also saw Ontario’s Progressive Conservative Party winning a third majority under Doug Ford, though with fewer seats. The upcoming election dynamics seem to be shifting focus towards economic security and Canada-U.S. relations, challenging the previously expected “change election” narrative with enhanced concerns over maintaining stability. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre now faces a tougher contest in what was once thought to be a straightforward victory.”

Fact-checking news summary:
Sure, let’s break down the facts from the summary, evaluate their accuracy, and analyze their importance and relevance to the original question “How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?”.

1. **Fact: The Conservative Party’s former polling lead has significantly diminished amidst Donald Trump’s tariff threats against Canada.**
– **Correctness:** True/False — This would need verification with recent polling data and if Trump’s tariff threats are a current influence. This statement implies a direct correlation that needs tracing via current affairs and data.
– **Importance:** Important — This fact is relevant as it directly impacts the Conservative Party’s prospects in the coming election.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True — It is relevant because a diminishing lead could influence the number of seats won.

2. **Fact: The Liberal Party’s support has increased as they adopt a protective stance against perceived U.S. aggression.**
– **Correctness:** True/False — Must be verified with polling data and recent political analysis.
– **Importance:** Important — This influences the competitive landscape for the election.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True — Increased support for the Liberals could affect the number of seats the Conservatives win.

3. **Fact: Speculation surrounds Mark Carney potentially taking leadership of the Liberal Party.**
– **Correctness:** True — Speculation about leadership changes is a common subject in political discourse, but needs recent confirmation.
– **Importance:** Lesser — While speculation about leadership could affect dynamics, it doesn’t directly dictate seat counts.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** False — Mere speculation, unless confirmed, does not have a direct effect on Conservative seat winnings.
4. **Fact: There is a possibility of an early election being called under Mark Carney’s leadership.**
– **Correctness:** True/False — This is speculative and needs verification on whether any such actions are being planned.
– **Importance:** Unimportant — Speculative information doesn’t affect the prediction unless confirmed to affect election timelines.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** False — Unless enacted, this possibility does not directly impact seat outcomes.

5. **Fact: Ontario’s Progressive Conservative Party won a third majority under Doug Ford, though with fewer seats.**
– **Correctness:** True — This is a confirmed result from Ontario’s recent provincial election.
– **Importance:** Lesser — It reflects provincial dynamics which may suggest trends but doesn’t dictate federal outcomes.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True/False — This might indicate some broader political trends but is not directly relevant to federal seat predictions.

6. **Fact: The focus of the upcoming election is shifting towards economic security and Canada-U.S. relations.**
– **Correctness:** True — These are critical and ongoing themes in Canadian politics, especially given current events.
– **Importance:** Important — These are central issues that could drive voter priorities and influence election outcomes.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True — Voter focus could influence which party wins more seats, including the Conservatives.

7. **Fact: The “change election” narrative is being challenged with enhanced concerns over maintaining stability.**
– **Correctness:** True — Given current political debates, this shift is plausible.
– **Importance:** Important — A shift in narrative influences electoral atmospheres and strategies.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True — Narrative shifts impact perceptions and thus can influence Conservative seat wins.
8. **Fact: Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre now faces a tougher contest.**
– **Correctness:** True — Based on the overall political environment, this is a logical conclusion.
– **Importance:** Critical — This is directly related to how the Conservatives will fare in the elections.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True — A tougher contest directly affects their potential seat count.

In summary, while several of these points are important or even critical for understanding the context of the election, not all are directly relevant or verified for determining the exact number of Conservative seats in the next federal parliamentary election.

Fact-checked summary:
The Conservative Party’s prospects in the upcoming Canadian federal parliamentary election are influenced by several key factors that are both true and relevant. First, the party’s former polling lead has significantly diminished, in part due to external factors like Donald Trump’s tariff threats against Canada, impacting their potential seat count. Additionally, the Liberal Party has gained support by taking a protective stance against perceived U.S. aggression, altering the competitive landscape and possibly reducing the seats the Conservatives might win. The election’s focus on economic security and Canada-U.S. relations is particularly important, as these issues are likely to drive voter priorities and influence election outcomes. Moreover, narrative shifts, such as the challenge against the “change election” theme with a focus on stability, could affect voter perceptions, again impacting Conservative seat wins. Lastly, Pierre Poilievre, the Conservative leader, faces a tougher contest under the current political environment, which is crucial as it directly affects the party’s success in securing seats.

Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.45, “between 172 and 205”: 0.35, “between 206 and 240”: 0.15, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.5, “between 172 and 205”: 0.3, “between 206 and 240”: 0.15, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.2, “between 172 and 205”: 0.5, “between 206 and 240”: 0.25, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
# LLM responses: 3

Model value:
* less than 172: 45%
* between 172 and 205: 35%
* between 206 and 240: 15%
* more than 240: 5%

We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows: The reasoning across various AIs suggests that the Conservative Party’s electoral prospects in Canada are currently challenged due to several key factors. Primarily, Donald Trump’s tariff threats against Canada have shifted voter focus towards economic security and Canada-U.S. relations, benefiting the incumbent Liberal Party as it positions itself as a defender of national interests. This external pressure has aided the Liberals in reframing the election narrative from one of change to one of stability, which typically favors the current government. As a result, the Conservatives, previously leading in polls, now face a diminished likelihood of achieving a high seat count. However, this prediction could be altered by various factors, including a reversal of current polling trends, economic downturns prompting demands for change, successful Conservative rebranding efforts, or unexpected shifts in international relations. The interactions of these dynamics are pivotal in shaping voter behavior and consequently, the electoral outcomes.

Runtime: 78 seconds. Past Multi-AI Oracle Forecasts

Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports 

Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).