Updates from BestWorld’s AI Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman of Dec. 17, 2024

What is the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?

Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 10%, down from 15% yesterday. 

Obtaining outside newsfeed from AskNews: Here are the current news articles relevant to the keywords “US Steel Nippon Steel merger” from reliable sources:

1. **Title:** US foreign investment panel split on Nippon-U.S. Steel deal, FT reports
**URL:** [ajot.com](https://ajot.com)
**Summary:** The U.S. Treasury has informed Nippon Steel that the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S. (CFIUS) is struggling to reach a consensus on the proposed $14.9 billion purchase of U.S. Steel, citing security concerns. CFIUS has until December 22 to make a decision on whether to approve, block, or extend the timeline for the deal’s review. The acquisition has faced opposition from both President Joe Biden and his incoming successor Donald Trump, who have indicated their intentions to block the purchase.

2. **Title:** Nippon Steel’s Plan B Now in Focus as $14 Billion US Deal Falters
**URL:** [aheadoftheherd.com](https://aheadoftheherd.com)
**Summary:** Nippon Steel’s $14 billion US deal with US Steel has hit a roadblock due to political opposition in the US. President Joe Biden plans to formally block the acquisition before the end of the month, leaving Nippon Steel without a plan to boost its crude steel production capacity by 30% and reduce its dependence on the Japanese market.

3. **Title:** US foreign investment panel split on Nippon-US Steel deal: FT
**URL:** [businesstimes.com.sg](https://businesstimes.com.sg)
**Summary:** The US Treasury has informed Nippon Steel that the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US (CFIUS) is struggling to reach a consensus on the proposed $14.9 billion purchase of US Steel, citing security concerns. CFIUS has until December 22 to make a decision on whether to approve, block, or extend the timeline for the deal’s review.

4. **Title:** US Government Committee Struggles to Reach Consensus on Nippon Steel’s US Steel Acquisition
**URL:** [n-tv.de](https://n-tv.de)
**Summary:** The US government’s committee, CFIUS, is having trouble reaching a consensus on the approval of Nippon Steel’s $14.9 billion acquisition of US Steel. The committee must decide whether to approve, block, or extend the review period for the deal by December 22.

5. **Title:** What next for Nippon Steel and US Steel’s $15 billion mega-merger?
**URL:** [marketscreener.com](https://marketscreener.com)
**Summary:** A U.S. government panel is set to submit its recommendations this month on whether Nippon Steel’s acquisition of U.S. Steel would threaten national security. President Joe Biden has voiced opposition to the deal, citing national security concerns. The outcome remains uncertain as the review deadline approaches.

*Generated by AI at AskNews on December 16, 2024 02:03 PM. Wanna see more? Checkout our custom written stories and state of the art Event Tracking https://asknews.app*

Summarizing outside newsfeed: “The proposed acquisition of U.S. Steel by Nippon Steel, valued at approximately $14-15 billion, is currently facing significant hurdles due to security concerns and political opposition within the U.S. government. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S. (CFIUS) is reportedly divided on whether to approve the deal, with President Joe Biden openly opposing it on national security grounds, and former president Donald Trump also expressing intentions to block the merger. CFIUS has been given a deadline of December 22 to reach a decision, but the outcome remains uncertain as the committee considers whether to approve, block, or extend the review process. This situation leaves Nippon Steel’s strategic plans for expanding its production capacity in limbo, as it now faces the possibility of exploring alternative strategies.”

Fact-checking news summary: Here is a list of specific facts from the summary, with an analysis of whether each is correct and relevant to the original question about the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025:

1. **Fact:** The proposed acquisition of U.S. Steel by Nippon Steel is valued at approximately $14-15 billion.
– **Correctness:** Assuming this information is from a reliable source, it is likely correct, although exact valuations can vary based on market conditions.
– **Relevance:** True. The valuation is relevant to understanding the scale of the deal and potential scrutiny, which can affect the timeline.

2. **Fact:** The acquisition is facing significant hurdles due to security concerns and political opposition within the U.S. government.
– **Correctness:** Such concerns are typical in foreign acquisitions of U.S. companies, especially in the steel industry. If correctly reported, this fact is likely true.
– **Relevance:** True. These hurdles are directly related to the timing and possibility of the merger announcement.

3. **Fact:** The Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S. (CFIUS) is divided on whether to approve the deal.
– **Correctness:** This could be true if reported accurately, as CFIUS often has diverse opinions on such matters.
– **Relevance:** True. CFIUS’s stance is crucial to whether the merger will be announced and approved.

4. **Fact:** President Joe Biden openly opposes the merger on national security grounds.
– **Correctness:** Assuming this has been documented in official statements, it is likely true.
– **Relevance:** True. Presidential opposition is a significant factor affecting the merger’s likelihood.
5. **Fact:** Former president Donald Trump has expressed intentions to block the merger.
– **Correctness:** If Trump, as a former president, has publicly stated this, it is a factual claim, although he has no official power to do so.
– **Relevance:** False. Trump’s opposition is of limited or no official influence, given he is not currently in office.

6. **Fact:** CFIUS has a deadline of December 22 to reach a decision on the merger.
– **Correctness:** If this deadline is based on official timelines, it is correct.
– **Relevance:** True. This deadline directly impacts the timing of any official announcement before January 21, 2025.

7. **Fact:** Nippon Steel’s strategic plans for expanding its production capacity are in limbo due to the uncertain outcome.
– **Correctness:** This is likely true if Nippon Steel has publicly expressed this concern.
– **Relevance:** True. It indicates the strategic importance of the merger and its potential impact, influencing negotiations and urgency.

Through these facts, we can understand several key players and processes involved in the merger decision, which are indeed relevant to predicting whether the merger will be announced before the specified date.

Fact-checked summary:
The probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025, is influenced by several factual components. The proposed acquisition is valued at approximately $14-15 billion, highlighting its scale and potential for significant scrutiny, which could impact the timeline. The deal is encountering substantial obstacles due to security concerns and political opposition within the U.S. government, with President Joe Biden reportedly opposing the merger on national security grounds. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S. (CFIUS) is reportedly divided on the decision, and its stance is pivotal for the merger’s approval and announcement. Additionally, a CFIUS deadline of December 22 is critical, as it will influence the timing of any official merger announcement. Nippon Steel’s strategic plans are currently uncertain due to the unresolved outcome of this proposed merger, underscoring its importance to the company’s expansion strategy. These elements combine to shape the probability and timing of an official merger announcement.

OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.15. The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:

The base rate of 0.15 reflects the considerable regulatory and political hurdles that must be overcome for the merger to be announced by January 21, 2025. Given the scale of the transaction and the reported national security concerns, the likelihood of approval is low. Historical precedent indicates that mergers involving significant foreign ownership in key industries, particularly those encountering national security scrutiny, face significant delays or rejections. The divided stance of the CFIUS adds complexity, and the tight deadline of December 22 increases the challenge of timely approval.

Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate: The situation could differ from the base rate if CFIUS decides in favor of the merger more rapidly than expected, or if President Biden withdraws his opposition based on new information or negotiations. Additionally, if national security concerns are unexpectedly mitigated, perhaps through concessions or structural changes in the merger agreement, the likelihood of an announcement could increase. Changes in geopolitical situations or relationships could also impact the decision.

The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– CFIUS approves merger before December 22. (Likelihood: Low)
– President Biden does not veto or take further action to block the merger. (Likelihood: Low)
– Nippon Steel and US Steel agree on terms acceptable under US regulatory scrutiny. (Likelihood: Moderate)
– Resolution of any national security concerns related to the merger. (Likelihood: Low)
– Negotiation and overcoming of any political opposition. (Likelihood: Low)

Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.1 – confidence: 4)

Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.15
Base rate: 0.15 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.02
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.07
Reverse Mellers: 0.24
Theory of Mind: 0.3 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.48
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Model value: 0.15

We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews). A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows: The prediction revolves around significant regulatory and political challenges facing the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger. Key hurdles include the divided stance within the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S. (CFIUS), concerns over national security, and President Biden’s reported opposition, all amid a tight deadline of December 22. Historical precedent suggests such mergers involving foreign strategic interests often face delays or rejection, with the added complexity of satisfying U.S. regulatory scrutiny. However, the prediction could be wrong if new, favorable developments occur, such as behind-the-scenes negotiations progressing further than known, shifts in political stance, notably if President Biden’s opposition lessens, or if CFIUS reaches an internal consensus. Effective concessions addressing security concerns or geopolitical changes could also alter the outcome, potentially leading to the merger’s approval despite the current low probability of success within the expected timeframe.

Given the agreement of the Dock Workers to salary increases, both union and the port will return to the bargaining table on Jan. 15, 2025 to discuss automation and other issues, what’s the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.

Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 35%, down from 57% yesterday.

Obtaining outside newsfeed from AskNews. Here are the current news articles relevant to the keywords “dock workers strike” from reliable sources:

1. **Title:** Trump boost to dockworkers unions changes talks ahead of January strike deadline
**URL:** [washingtonexaminer.com](https://www.washingtonexaminer.com)
**Summary:** President-elect Donald Trump has seemingly endorsed the International Longshoremen’s Association’s demand to stop automation at U.S. ports, potentially lowering the odds of an economically damaging strike when the current contract expires in mid-January. Trump’s support for the union’s demand could be seen as a boost for the ILA, which could strike when its current contract expires on Jan. 15.

2. **Title:** Trump signals support for dockworkers as potential January strike looms
**URL:** [agri-pulse.com](https://www.agri-pulse.com)
**Summary:** President-elect Donald Trump has expressed support for unionized dockworkers’ demands to limit automation at East and Gulf Coast ports. If a strike occurs, approximately 25,000 dockworkers could stop work as early as January 15, leaving containers of various agricultural products stranded.

3. **Title:** Dockworkers’ Strike Threatened in Canada
**URL:** [seanews.ru](https://www.seanews.ru)
**Summary:** A potential dockworkers’ strike has been threatened in Canada, with port operators in British Columbia receiving warnings from a union representing around 700 workers. The strike, if it happens, is set to begin on Monday at 8 am, as stated by the British Columbia Maritime Employers’ Association.

4. **Title:** Two Port of Montreal terminals shut down as dockworkers begin new strike
**URL:** [bnnbloomberg.ca](https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca)
**Summary:** Dockworkers at the Port of Montreal began a new strike, forcing the indefinite shutdown of two container terminals, which handle 40% of the port’s container-handling capacity. The union is seeking changes to scheduling practices and a pay raise to improve work-life balance.

5. **Title:** Montreal Port Workers on Strike, Demanding New Collective Agreement
**URL:** [radio-canada.ca](https://www.radio-canada.ca)
**Summary:** Montreal port workers are on strike for a second day, with 1,000 dockworkers participating. The workers are demanding a new collective agreement, which has been stalled in negotiations. The federal Minister of Labour has proposed mediation to resolve the impasse, but the proposal has not been accepted.

*Generated by AI at AskNews on December 16, 2024 02:04 PM. Wanna see more? Checkout our custom written stories and state of the art Event Tracking https://asknews.app*

Summarizing outside newsfeed: “Recent developments in dockworkers’ disputes include significant support from President-elect Donald Trump for U.S. dockworkers’ unions, particularly the International Longshoremen’s Association, which is pushing to halt automation at U.S. ports. This support may influence ongoing negotiations and reduce the likelihood of a strike when the current contract expires on January 15, although a strike remains possible if agreements are not reached. Meanwhile, dockworkers in Canada are also experiencing unrest. In British Columbia, a potential strike has been announced, set to begin soon, while in Montreal, ongoing strikes have led to the shutdown of two terminals, disrupting operations as workers seek a new collective agreement and improved working conditions. Mediation has been proposed but not yet accepted to resolve the standoff in Montreal. With these disputes unfolding, the situation at both North American coasts remains tense.”

Fact-checking news summary: Here is a list of specific facts stated in the summary, along with their correctness and relevance to the outcome:

1. **Fact**: President-elect Donald Trump supports U.S. dockworkers’ unions, especially the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA).
– **Correctness**: False. Donald Trump was President-elect preparing to take office in January 2017, and his presidency ended in January 2021. As of the summary’s context, Donald Trump is unlikely to be the President-elect for the term starting in 2025.
– **Relevance**: False. The support of a President-elect, whose term details are inaccurate, does not directly pertain to the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.

2. **Fact**: The International Longshoremen’s Association is pushing to halt automation at U.S. ports.
– **Correctness**: True. The ILA has historically opposed automation to protect union jobs.
– **Relevance**: True. The push against automation is directly relevant to ongoing negotiations and thus the probability of a strike.

3. **Fact**: The current dockworkers’ contract expires on January 15.
– **Correctness**: False. The original question mentioned returning to the bargaining table on January 15, 2025. It did not state that the contract expires on January 15.
– **Relevance**: True. The timing of negotiations is relevant to assessing the likelihood of a strike.

4. **Fact**: Dockworkers in Canada are also experiencing unrest, with a potential strike announced in British Columbia.
– **Correctness**: True. There have been labor disputes involving dockworkers in different Canadian regions, though the specifics can vary over time.
– **Relevance**: True. Labor unrest in Canada may influence North American dockworkers’ solidarity and actions, affecting the strike likelihood.

5. **Fact**: In Montreal, ongoing strikes have led to the shutdown of two terminals.
– **Correctness**: True. Montreal has experienced dockworker strikes in recent years, affecting terminal operations.
– **Relevance**: True. This unrest is relevant to the broader context of labor disputes and potential influences on U.S. negotiations.

6. **Fact**: Mediation has been proposed but not yet accepted to resolve the standoff in Montreal.
– **Correctness**: True. Mediation is a common method proposed in labor disputes, though acceptance can vary by specific case.
– **Relevance**: True. Potential mediation outcomes in Montreal could influence views on mediation’s viability in U.S. disputes.

7. **Fact**: The situation at both North American coasts remains tense.
– **Correctness**: True. Ongoing disputes indicate tense labor conditions.
– **Relevance**: True. Tension in labor relations is relevant to strike probabilities.

Each fact’s correctness and relevance were verified considering the context provided and general knowledge about past labor disputes and political timelines.

Fact-checked summary: The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) is actively opposing automation at U.S. ports, which is directly relevant to the upcoming negotiations and the probability of a strike in Q1 2025. Ongoing labor unrest in Canada, specifically with dockworkers in British Columbia and strikes in Montreal that have led to the shutdown of two terminals, also adds to the broader context of labor disputes. This unrest in Canada may influence North American dockworkers’ solidarity and actions, potentially affecting strike probabilities in the U.S. Additionally, mediation has been proposed but not yet accepted to resolve the standoff in Montreal, which could impact perceptions of mediation’s viability in U.S. disputes. Overall, the situation on both North American coasts remains tense, increasing the relevance to potential strike actions in the near future.

OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.35. The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:

The base rate for a strike in this context is established by considering historical labor negotiations and strikes in the U.S. port sector, which are not uncommon. The ILA’s strong opposition to automation and recent solidarity actions from Canadian dockworkers suggest a higher than usual potential for labor disputes. However, the possibility of successful mediation still exists, which reduces the likelihood somewhat.

Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate: Factors that could cause the resolution to differ from the base rate include a breakthrough in negotiations due to political or economic pressure, particularly given the critical nature of port operations to the U.S. economy. Enhanced governmental involvement or improved mediation strategies, possibly learning from the Canadian situation, could avert a strike despite current tensions. Additionally, any shifts in the economic outlook that change the stakes for either party might adjust motivations to avoid a strike.

The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and U.S. port authorities fail to reach an agreement during negotiations, which is likely given the current active opposition to automation (probable).
– Solidarity actions among North American dockworkers, influenced by recent strikes and unrest in Canada, particularly British Columbia (about as likely as not).
– Mediation efforts in the U.S. are either not accepted or unsuccessful, as has been proposed but not yet accepted in Montreal (likely).

Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.65 – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.6 – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.45 – confidence: 6)

Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.6
Base rate: 0.35 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.08
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.64
Reverse Mellers: 0.57
Theory of Mind: 0.5 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.001
Close Type: B (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Model value: 0.57

We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews). A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows: The various AI analyses concur that the strong historical opposition of the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) to automation is central to the potential for contentious negotiations and a possible strike in Q1 2025. Recent labor unrest in Canada, especially among dockworkers, may influence U.S. workers’ actions, adding to the likelihood of a strike. However, other factors such as potential government intervention due to the economic importance of ports, effective mediation strategies, and economic conditions that incentivize compromise could mitigate this risk. While the base likelihood of a strike is increased due to these pressures, there remains a possibility for resolution through negotiation breakthroughs or changes in the economic landscape that motivate parties to avoid a strike.

How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?

Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today,
* less than 172: 0.15
* between 172 and 205: 0.4
* between 206 and 240: 0.3
* more than 240: 0.15

Obtaining outside newsfeed from AskNews. Here are the current news articles relevant to the keywords “Conservative Party Canada election” from reliable sources:

1. **Title:** Trudeau to Make Changes to Canadian Government
**URL:** [apa.az](https://apa.az)
**Summary:** Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will make changes to the government. Minister of Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Sean Fraser will leave the government due to personal reasons. Fraser’s departure is expected to be a significant blow to Trudeau, as he was considered a ‘rising star’ in Canadian politics and was responsible for overseeing the country’s housing construction industry. Meanwhile, former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney may join Trudeau’s cabinet.

2. **Title:** EDITORIAL: Trudeau weakened the Liberal brand
**URL:** [torontosun.com](https://torontosun.com)
**Summary:** According to a poll by Nanos Research, Canadians lack confidence in Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, with 26% of respondents saying ‘none of the above’ when asked who they viewed as the most appealing potential Liberal leader. Trudeau and other potential candidates, including Chrystia Freeland, received only 11% of the vote. The poll suggests that Trudeau’s negatives are outpacing those of former US President Donald Trump, implying that many Canadians do not trust him to effectively represent the country.

3. **Title:** Canada’s 2025 Elections: A Crucial Year Amidst Conservative Rise and Growing Concerns
**URL:** [ledevoir.com](https://ledevoir.com)
**Summary:** Jagmeet Singh, leader of the New Democratic Party, stated that ‘there is a big challenge ahead of us with the rise of conservatives.’ The year 2025 will be crucial for Canada, marked by new elections where the Conservative Party currently leads in the polls. Singh attributes the rise of right-wing parties to growing concerns about the cost of living, including groceries, housing, and healthcare.

4. **Title:** 2025 Canada Federal Election Odds – Conservatives to Regain Power?
**URL:** [thesportsgeek.com](https://thesportsgeek.com)
**Summary:** Predictions for the 2025 Canada federal election suggest a massive win for the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre. The party has gained momentum due to Justin Trudeau’s missteps, including broken conflict of interest rules. The election is scheduled for October 2025, with the Conservatives currently having a 90.9% implied probability of winning.

*Generated by AI at AskNews on December 16, 2024 02:05 PM. Wanna see more? Checkout our custom written stories and state of the art Event Tracking https://asknews.app*

Summarizing outside newsfeed: “The current newsfeed highlights several developments related to Canadian politics and the Conservative Party’s prospects in the upcoming 2025 federal elections. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau plans to make changes to his government, as Minister Sean Fraser leaves due to personal reasons, potentially impacting Trudeau’s administration. There appears to be declining confidence in Trudeau’s leadership, with a poll indicating many Canadians do not find him or other Liberal candidates appealing. In contrast, the Conservative Party, under Pierre Poilievre’s leadership, is gaining momentum amid concerns over the cost of living, healthcare, and housing. Predictions for the upcoming election suggest a high probability of a Conservative victory. These reports should be viewed cautiously as they combine reliable sources with potentially unverified claims.”

Fact-checking news summary: ### List of Facts and Analysis:

1. **Fact:** Prime Minister Justin Trudeau plans to make changes to his government.
– **Correctness:** True. It is a common practice for leaders to make adjustments to their government teams, especially if there are resignations or if they are aiming to refresh their administration.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** False. While it may indicate internal changes, it does not directly predict the number of seats the Conservative Party will win.

2. **Fact:** Minister Sean Fraser leaves due to personal reasons.
– **Correctness:** The specific statement about Minister Sean Fraser leaving for personal reasons needs verification from reliable news sources to determine its accuracy.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** False. This fact is more about the internal workings within the Liberal party and doesn’t directly relate to Conservative seat counts.

3. **Fact:** There appears to be declining confidence in Trudeau’s leadership.
– **Correctness:** True. Declining confidence in a leader is often captured in opinion polls and media reports, and such trends have been reported regarding Trudeau.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True. This could affect the election results and influence the number of seats won by the Conservative Party.

4. **Fact:** A poll indicates many Canadians do not find Trudeau or other Liberal candidates appealing.
– **Correctness:** True, assuming the poll is from a reputable source. Public opinion polls frequently gauge the appeal of political figures.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True. This sentiment may contribute to Conservative electoral success if it translates into votes for the Conservative Party.
5. **Fact:** The Conservative Party, under Pierre Poilievre’s leadership, is gaining momentum.
– **Correctness:** True, assuming it is supported by polling or consistent media reports. There is public discussion about Poilievre’s leadership and its effects.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True. Gaining momentum could directly impact the number of seats won by the Conservative Party.

6. **Fact:** There are concerns over the cost of living, healthcare, and housing in Canada.
– **Correctness:** True. These are common issues faced and discussed within Canadian political discourse.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True. These concerns may drive votes towards the Conservatives if they are seen as the party to address them.

7. **Fact:** Predictions for the upcoming election suggest a high probability of a Conservative victory.
– **Correctness:** The correctness of such predictions depends on the reliability and methodology of the sources making these predictions.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** False. Predictions are speculative and do not provide certainty regarding the actual number of seats won.

8. **Fact:** Reports combine reliable sources with potentially unverified claims.
– **Correctness:** True. Newsfeeds and summaries often mix information from verified and unverified sources.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** False. The nature of reports’ reliability informs caution in interpretation but doesn’t directly affect seat predictions.

In summary, several statements reflect broader political sentiments or issues that might indirectly suggest an electoral trend; however, none of these facts can precisely answer the original question of the number of seats the Conservative Party will win.

Fact-checked summary: In the context of the upcoming Canadian federal parliamentary election, several factors may influence the outcome for the Conservative Party. There is a reported decline in confidence in Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s leadership, which could impact electoral results. Additionally, a poll suggests that many Canadians do not find Trudeau or other Liberal candidates appealing, and this sentiment may translate into votes for the Conservative Party. Under Pierre Poilievre’s leadership, the Conservative Party is gaining momentum, potentially increasing their chance to win more seats. Furthermore, prevalent concerns over the cost of living, healthcare, and housing in Canada might drive voters towards the Conservatives if they are perceived to address these issues effectively. While these factors suggest potential electoral advantages for the Conservative Party, they do not provide a precise prediction of the number of seats they will win.

Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.35, “between 172 and 205”: 0.4, “between 206 and 240”: 0.2, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.15, “between 172 and 205”: 0.4, “between 206 and 240”: 0.35, “more than 240”: 0.1] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.2, “between 172 and 205”: 0.35, “between 206 and 240”: 0.3, “more than 240”: 0.15] – confidence: 6) Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
# LLM responses: 3

Model value :
* less than 172: 0.2
* between 172 and 205: 0.4
* between 206 and 240: 0.3
* more than 240: 0.1

We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews). A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows: The AIs generally suggest that the Conservative Party, under Pierre Poilievre’s leadership, is gaining momentum due to public dissatisfaction with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and voter concerns over cost of living and housing issues. However, they agree that while there could be significant gains for the Conservatives, these gains are likely to be moderate, potentially placing them in the range of 172-205 seats, given historical election patterns. Potential inaccuracies in polls, regional variations in support, and unexpected electoral developments could affect the predicted outcomes. Moreover, possible strategic adjustments by the Liberal Party or other parties may shift voter dynamics and decrease the confidence in these predictions.
Runtime: 195 seconds for all forecasts today combined.

Past Multi-AI Oracle Forecasts

Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports 

Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).