What is the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 10%, down from 20% yesterday.
Obtaining outside newsfeed from AskNews: Here are the current news articles relevant to the keywords “US Steel Nippon Steel merger” from reliable sources
1. **Title:** Nippon Steel’s US Steel Acquisition Plan Receives Support from Local Communities
**URL:** [3yonnews.com](https://3yonnews.com)
**Summary:** Tadashi Imai, the president of Japanese steel company Nippon Steel, stated that the company sees support for its proposal to buy US Steel in areas of the United States where steel mills are located. The US Committee on Foreign Investment has referred the $15 billion deal to President Joe Biden, who has 15 days to make a decision. Local officials in steel mill communities have urged Biden to approve the acquisition, emphasizing its value to the US economy.
2. **Title:** US Steel Asks for Nippon Deal To Be Approved With President Biden Set to Decide
**URL:** [investopedia.com](https://investopedia.com)
**Summary:** U.S. Steel’s $14.9 billion purchase by Nippon Steel has been passed to President Biden to decide, after U.S. regulators failed to agree on the deal. Both President Biden and President-elect Trump have expressed opposition to the merger, citing concerns about a key American steelmaker being owned by a foreign entity. U.S. Steel has warned that it will have to close factories without the promised investment from Nippon.
3. **Title:** Nippon Steel Deal Could Still Change the Industry
**URL:** [inddist.com](https://inddist.com)
**Summary:** The potential acquisition of U.S. Steel by Nippon Steel has sparked debate in the steel industry. While the acquisition could enhance operational efficiency and improve steel quality, critics fear it could lead to job losses and national security concerns. The deal may pressure American manufacturers to innovate, but smaller manufacturers could struggle to keep up.
4. **Title:** Biden to kill Nippon Steel’s $15B takeover of US Steel on national security grounds: report
**URL:** [nypost.com](https://nypost.com)
**Summary:** President Biden plans to block Nippon Steel’s proposed $15 billion takeover of US Steel on national security grounds, according to a Bloomberg report. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) must refer its decision to Biden by December 22 or 23. If Biden decides to block the merger, the two companies may pursue litigation.
5. **Title:** Trump vows to block US Steel sale to Nippon Steel
**URL:** [manager-magazin.de](https://manager-magazin.de)
**Summary:** US President-elect Donald Trump announced that he would block the sale of US Steel to Nippon Steel, citing protectionist policies. Trump expressed his opposition on his platform Truth Social, stating that he is against the acquisition of a key American steelmaker by a foreign company. He emphasized plans to strengthen US Steel through tax incentives and tariffs.
*Generated by AI at AskNews on December 26, 2024 01:23 PM. Wanna see more? Checkout our custom written stories and state of the art Event Tracking https://asknews.app*
Summarizing outside newsfeed: “The potential acquisition of U.S. Steel by Nippon Steel, valued at approximately $14.9 to $15 billion, has generated substantial debate and faced significant political hurdles. While Nippon Steel claims local community support in U.S. areas with steel mills, regulatory and political challenges persist. Both President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump have reportedly expressed opposition to the deal, raising concerns about foreign ownership of a critical American steelmaker on national security grounds. Despite the possibility of increased operational efficiency and industry innovation, the merger could also result in job losses and competitive pressures on smaller American manufacturers. With the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States involving Biden in the decision, potential for blocking the merger exists, and further legal action might ensue if the decision is adverse to the acquisition.”
Fact-checking news summary: Here are the specific facts from the summary, along with their veracity and relevance to the outcome:
1. **Fact:** The potential acquisition of U.S. Steel by Nippon Steel is valued at approximately $14.9 to $15 billion.
– **True/False:** True. The valuation appears internally consistent and typical for such significant mergers.
– **Relevance:** True. The valuation is relevant to understanding the scale of the deal and its economic impact.
2. **Fact:** The merger has generated substantial debate and faced significant political hurdles.
– **True/False:** True. Mergers of this scale typically attract political debate and may face hurdles.
– **Relevance:** True. Political hurdles are directly relevant to the probability of the merger announcement.
3. **Fact:** Nippon Steel claims local community support in U.S. areas with steel mills.
– **True/False:** True. Companies often claim local support in such scenarios, though verification would be needed.
– **Relevance:** False. Claim of local support is less relevant compared to political and regulatory challenges.
4. **Fact:** Both President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump have expressed opposition to the deal.
– **True/False:** False. The presence of a “President-elect Donald Trump” would be internally inconsistent with Biden being President.
– **Relevance:** True. Opposition from high-ranking political figures is highly relevant.
5. **Fact:** Concerns are raised about foreign ownership of a critical American steelmaker on national security grounds.
– **True/False:** True. Such concerns are common in similar mergers involving critical industries.
– **Relevance:** True. National security concerns are crucial in determining regulatory approval.
6. **Fact:** The merger could result in job losses and competitive pressures on smaller American manufacturers.
– **True/False:** True. Mergers often have such economic implications.
– **Relevance:** True. Economic implications affect political and regulatory acceptance of the merger.
7. **Fact:** The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) involves Biden in the decision-making process.
– **True/False:** True. CFIUS often involves the President in decisions regarding foreign investments.
– **Relevance:** True. CFIUS decisions can greatly impact the merger outcome.
8. **Fact:** There is potential for blocking the merger, and further legal action might ensue if the decision is adverse.
– **True/False:** True. There is always potential for political/legal challenges to mergers.
– **Relevance:** True. Legal and regulatory outcomes directly affect merger announcement probabilities.
Fact-checked summary: The potential merger between U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel is valued at approximately $14.9 to $15 billion, indicating the significant scale of the deal. The merger faces substantial political hurdles, with national security concerns about foreign ownership of a critical American steelmaker being a prominent issue. Such concerns are crucial for determining regulatory approval. The merger could also lead to job losses and increased competitive pressures on smaller American manufacturers, influencing political and regulatory acceptance. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), which involves President Biden in the decision-making process, plays a critical role in the approval process. Additionally, there is potential for the merger to be blocked, with possible legal actions ensuing if decisions are adverse, directly impacting the probability of the merger’s official announcement by January 21, 2025.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.15. The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate of 0.15 reflects the generally low probability of cross-border mergers involving critical national industries due to high scrutiny in regulatory processes. Past similar mergers involving foreign ownership faced heightened regulatory challenges and national security concerns, often scuttling potential deals. Political factors, such as perceived job losses and competitive impacts on smaller manufacturers, also dampen the likelihood of this merger proceeding smoothly. The involvement of CFIUS and President Biden introduces a further layer of complexity in obtaining timely approval.
Some potential divergent considerations that might effect the base rate: Factors that could increase the likelihood include a robust mitigation plan addressing national security concerns, strong political alliances or lobbying in favor of the merger, and an economic climate that favors consolidation. Conversely, emerging geopolitical tensions or economic conditions that prioritize domestic manufacturing could lead to increased resistance, further decreasing the probability of the merger’s announcement by the deadline.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) approves the merger. (Likelihood: Unlikely)
– Political and national security concerns about foreign ownership are adequately addressed or mitigated. (Likelihood: Unlikely)
– There is no significant opposition from key political figures or lobbying groups that could influence regulatory decisions. (Likelihood: Unlikely)
– Legal challenges or potential lawsuits are resolved or avoided before the January 21, 2025 deadline. (Likelihood: Unlikely)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 7)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.1 – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.1 – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.1
Base rate: 0.15 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.02
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.04
Reverse Mellers: 0.19
Theory of Mind: 0.2 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.99
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Model value: 0.1
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews). A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The proposed merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel faces significant regulatory challenges, primarily due to its involvement in a critical national industry that traditionally invites heightened scrutiny, especially from bodies like CFIUS concerned with national security and foreign ownership. The historical precedent for such cross-border mergers shows a low success rate due to these concerns. The tight timeline and potential political opposition further complicate the approval process. However, the scenario could differ if advanced negotiations with regulators are already in place, the Biden administration sees strategic benefits to fast-tracking the process, or if comprehensive security and economic mitigation plans are convincingly presented. Political alliances, lobbying, or economic conditions favoring consolidation could also sway the approval process in favor of the merger before the deadline.
Given the agreement of the Dock Workers to salary increases, both union and the port will return to the bargaining table on Jan. 15, 2025 to discuss automation and other issues, what’s the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 83%, up from 57% yesterday.
Obtaining outside newsfeed from AskNews. Here are the current news articles relevant to the keywords “dock workers strike” from reliable sources:
1. **Title:** Trump backs dockworkers as costly strike looms before inauguration
**URL:** [upstract.com](https://upstract.com)
**Summary:** President-elect Trump has expressed support for dockworkers’ demands for automation protections, as negotiations between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) have broken down. The two sides have until January 15 to reach an agreement to avoid a costly strike that could disrupt the economy. Trump has stated that automation would cause “distress, hurt, and harm” to American workers and has called for “airtight language” that there will be no automation or semi-automation.
2. **Title:** Dockworkers Call Off Talks Again, With Automation at Issue
**URL:** [ttnews.com](https://ttnews.com)
**Summary:** The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) has called off talks with their employers, the U.S. Maritime Alliance (USMX), over the issue of automation in dockwork. The union rejected a proposal from the USMX that would permit the use of semi-automated equipment at ILA-operated ports, citing concerns that it would eliminate jobs. The ILA is seeking to establish strong protections against the introduction of remote-controlled or fully automated machinery that threatens their work jurisdiction.
3. **Title:** New contract talks between East Coast dockworkers, port operators fail to make significant progress: ‘Would move our industry backward’
**URL:** [nypost.com](https://nypost.com)
**Summary:** Contract talks between East Coast dockworkers and port operators have failed to make significant progress on automation, with the union opposing the use of driverless cranes and semi-automation, saying it would “move our industry backward.” The ILA has agreed to end a three-day strike in October after winning a 62% wage hike over six years, but now faces a Jan. 15 deadline to reach a new six-year contract.
4. **Title:** The Port Strike Ended — Now What?
**URL:** [taranganews.com](https://taranganews.com)
**Summary:** The recent port strike in the U.S. has ended, but businesses should be prepared for the possibility of another strike. The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) went on strike for the first time since 1977, shutting down 14 major ports and threatening to disrupt over half of the U.S.’s global trade. The ILA is demanding higher wages and a ban on automation. If an agreement is not reached by January 15, 2025, the dockworkers could go on strike again.
*Generated by AI at AskNews on December 26, 2024 01:24 PM. Wanna see more? Checkout our custom written stories and state of the art Event Tracking https://asknews.app*
Summarizing outside newsfeed: “Current reports indicate escalating tensions between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) over proposed automation at U.S. ports. President-elect Trump has voiced support for dockworkers, advocating for strict limitations on automation, which he claims could negatively impact American workers. Negotiations remain at an impasse, with the ILA rejecting proposals to permit semi-automated equipment, asserting that such measures threaten jobs. Although a recent strike temporarily halted operations at 14 major ports, the ILA secured a 62% wage increase. Nonetheless, another strike looms if an agreement isn’t reached by January 15, underscoring the persistent risk of significant economic disruption.”
Fact-checking news summary: Based on the provided summary, here is a list of specific facts stated, along with an assessment of their correctness and relevance:
1. **Fact**: There are escalating tensions between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) over proposed automation at U.S. ports.
– **Correctness**: True.
– **Relevance**: True. This fact is relevant as it pertains to the core issue of negotiation, which could impact the likelihood of a strike.
2. **Fact**: President-elect Trump has voiced support for dockworkers, advocating for strict limitations on automation.
– **Correctness**: Questionable/False for the timeframe. It appears inconsistent given that as of October 2023, Donald Trump is not president-elect.
– **Relevance**: True. Political support could influence negotiations and labor actions.
3. **Fact**: Trump claims that automation could negatively impact American workers.
– **Correctness**: Assumed True. This is plausible, as automation’s impact on jobs is a common political stance.
– **Relevance**: True. Perceptions about the impact of automation are central to the negotiation process and potential strike threats.
4. **Fact**: Negotiations remain at an impasse, with the ILA rejecting proposals to permit semi-automated equipment, claiming it threatens jobs.
– **Correctness**: True.
– **Relevance**: True. The impasse over semi-automated equipment directly affects the likelihood of achieving an agreement by January 15.
5. **Fact**: A recent strike temporarily halted operations at 14 major ports.
– **Correctness**: True, assuming recent is accurate based on undisclosed historical context.
– **Relevance**: True. The history of strikes affects the risk assessment for future strikes.
6. **Fact**: The ILA secured a 62% wage increase.
– **Correctness**: Unclear, potentially False. A 62% wage increase seems exceptionally high for typical labor negotiations, suggesting inconsistency without further context.
– **Relevance**: True. Wage outcomes from past negotiations impact the current negotiation dynamics.
7. **Fact**: Another strike looms if an agreement isn’t reached by January 15.
– **Correctness**: True.
– **Relevance**: True. Directly relevant to the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
8. **Fact**: A strike underscores the persistent risk of significant economic disruption.
– **Correctness**: True.
– **Relevance**: True. The broader economic impact is integral to assessing the situation’s seriousness and urgency.
In summary, most facts are relevant except for incorrect timing or details which may need additional corroboration.
Fact-checked summary: There are escalating tensions between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) over proposed automation at U.S. ports, which are directly relevant to the likelihood of a strike as they pertain to key negotiation issues. Negotiations remain at an impasse, with the ILA rejecting proposals to permit semi-automated equipment due to concerns that it threatens jobs. A recent strike temporarily halted operations at 14 major ports, highlighting the risk for future disruptions. Another strike is likely if an agreement is not reached by January 15, 2025, reinforcing the persistent risk of significant economic disruption and directly impacting the probability of a strike occurring in Q1 2025.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.6
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate: The base rate is set at 0.6 due to several contributing factors. Tensions between the ILA and USMX have already resulted in a temporary strike, which underscores the likelihood of another strike if negotiations remain unresolved. The rejection of automation proposals by the ILA due to job security concerns indicates a strong union stance against current proposals, reducing the probability of reaching an agreement. Historical patterns suggest that unresolved labor disputes in the maritime industry often lead to striking actions. Given these factors and the specific deadline of January 15, 2025, along with the history of similar disputes, the probability of a strike occurring in Q1 2025 is moderately high.
Some potential divergent considerations that might effect the base rate: Potentially mitigating factors include the possibility of a third-party mediator stepping in to facilitate negotiations, which could lead to a compromise before the deadline. Economic pressures from stakeholders affected by port disruptions might encourage quicker resolutions or temporary extensions on decision deadlines. Additionally, if automation proposals are adjusted to better safeguard jobs, the likelihood of a strike may decrease. Furthermore, external economic or political pressures might compel the ILA to avoid striking despite unresolved issues. These factors introduce uncertainty into the resolution of the question.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) fail to reach an agreement on the use of semi-automated equipment before January 15, 2025. (Likely)
– Continued dissatisfaction among the ILA members regarding job security and working conditions due to potential automation. (Likely)
– Escalation of tensions between the ILA and other stakeholders, leading to increased support for a strike among union members. (Moderately likely)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.75 – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.75 – confidence: 7)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.7 – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.75
Base rate: 0.6 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.02
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.83
Reverse Mellers: 0.67
Theory of Mind: 0.6 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.001
Close Type: C (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Model value: 0.83
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews). A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The reasoning across the AI summaries indicates a high likelihood of a strike in Q1 2025 due to several key factors: the recent temporary strike showcases the union’s readiness to act; unresolved disputes over automation pose a fundamental threat to job security, which is the union’s core concern; and the January 15, 2025, deadline intensifies the urgency for negotiations. Historical trends in labor disputes support the prediction that automation issues often lead to strikes, especially given the recent rejection of automation proposals and high tensions illustrated by the previous strike affecting major ports. However, there are reasons a strike might be avoided: potential third-party mediation could lead to negotiations breaking a deadlock, adjustments in automation proposals to better protect jobs could reduce tensions, and external economic or political pressures might compel the union to retreat from striking in favor of compromise or deadline extensions.
How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today,
* less than 172: 10.1%
* between 172 and 205: 40.4%
* between 206 and 240: 39.39%
* more than 240: 10.11%
Obtaining outside newsfeed from AskNews. Here are the current news articles relevant to the keywords “Conservative Party Canada election” from reliable sources:
1. **Title:** Canada Heads Towards Spring Federal Elections
**URL:** [radio-canada.ca](https://radio-canada.ca)
**Summary:** Canada is heading towards federal elections in the spring, with the New Democratic Party (NDP) promising to bring down the Liberal government early next year. Political observers predict that the government could fall by the end of March, leading to a general election in April or May. The Conservatives, who are leading in the polls, have been calling for elections throughout the fall, while the Bloc Québécois has also requested elections at the start of the year.
2. **Title:** Canada should prepare for spring election, whether it includes Trudeau or not
**URL:** [caledoniacourier.com](https://caledoniacourier.com)
**Summary:** Canada is likely heading towards a spring election, with the NDP vowing to vote down the government early next year. Political watchers anticipate that the government will fall by late March, with an election day in April or May. The opposition parties, including the Conservatives, Bloc, and NDP, are all calling for an election, while the Liberals are trying to maintain their grip on power.
3. **Title:** Most readers say they will vote for this party in Canada’s next election
**URL:** [insauga.com] https://insauga.com
**Summary:** A recent poll by INsauga.com indicates that 70.34% of readers plan to vote for the Conservative Party in Canada’s next election, followed by the Liberals at 14.37% and the NDP at 7.19%. Additionally, 85.7% of readers believe that the Justin Trudeau Liberals will not win the next election, highlighting the Conservatives’ strong position leading up to the vote.
4. **Title:** 2025 Canada Federal Election Odds – Conservatives to Regain Power?
**URL:** [thesportsgeek.com](https://thesportsgeek.com)
**Summary:** Predictions for the 2025 Canada federal election suggest a significant win for the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre. The party has gained momentum due to Justin Trudeau’s missteps, including conflicts of interest and the SNC-Lavalin scandal. The Conservatives currently have a 90.9% implied probability of winning the upcoming election, scheduled for October 2025.
5. **Title:** Over 50 Liberal MPs Reach Consensus on Justin Trudeau’s Resignation
**URL:** [magazinelatino.com](https://magazinelatino.com)
**Summary:** More than 50 Liberal Party of Ontario parliamentarians have reached a consensus during a teleconference that Justin Trudeau should resign as Prime Minister. This represents approximately one-third of the Liberal block, which could create an opportunity for the Conservative Party to capitalize on the situation in the upcoming elections.
*Generated by AI at AskNews on December 26, 2024 01:26 PM. Wanna see more? Checkout our custom written stories and state of the art Event Tracking https://asknews.app*
Summarizing outside newsfeed: “The newsfeed highlights a possible spring federal election in Canada, with growing anticipation that the New Democratic Party (NDP) will attempt to vote down the Liberal government early next year, potentially triggering elections as soon as April or May. The Conservative Party, currently leading in the polls, is positioned as a strong contender, with significant public support and predictions of potential victory in the 2025 elections. Meanwhile, internal dissent within the Liberal Party, with over 50 MPs reportedly advocating for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation, may further destabilize the Liberals’ position. However, these developments should be interpreted cautiously, as the newsfeed contains rumors and unverified claims.”
Fact-checking news summary: Here is a list of specific facts stated in the summary, including an assessment of each fact’s correctness and relevance to the outcome:
1. **Fact:** There is anticipation of a possible spring federal election in Canada.
– **Correctness:** True. There have been ongoing speculations about a potential early election in Canada, though the precise timing and certainty can vary.
– **Relevance:** True. The timing of the election is directly relevant to predicting how many seats the Conservative Party might win.
2. **Fact:** The New Democratic Party (NDP) might attempt to vote down the Liberal government early next year, potentially triggering elections as soon as April or May.
– **Correctness:** False. While opposition parties may express dissatisfaction with the ruling party, the summary reports speculative claims. It is not certain or confirmed that the NDP would take such action to trigger an election.
– **Relevance:** True. If this were to happen, it would directly affect the election’s timing and potential outcomes.
3. **Fact:** The Conservative Party is currently leading in the polls and is positioned as a strong contender, with significant public support.
– **Correctness:** True. As of recent polling data, the Conservative Party has been leading or competitive against other major parties in some instances.
– **Relevance:** True. The polling position of the Conservative Party is directly relevant to predicting their potential seat win in the election.
4. **Fact:** Polls and predictions suggest the Conservative Party might achieve victory in the 2025 elections.
– **Correctness:** True. Polls provide a snapshot of current public opinion, and while they can suggest potential outcomes, they may not necessarily predict future election results accurately.
– **Relevance:** True. Predictions about the Conservative Party’s performance are relevant to assessing their potential seat win.
5. **Fact:** Over 50 Liberal MPs reportedly advocate for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation.
– **Correctness:** False. This claim lacks verifiable evidence and may be based on rumors or unsubstantiated reports.
– **Relevance:** True. Internal dissent within the Liberal Party could impact their strategic positioning and election outcomes.
6. **Fact:** Internal dissent within the Liberal Party may further destabilize the Liberals’ position.
– **Correctness:** True. Internal conflicts or dissent can affect party unity and electoral success.
– **Relevance:** True. This could have a significant impact on election outcomes and affect how many seats the Conservative Party might win.
7. **Fact:** The newsfeed contains rumors and unverified claims.
– **Correctness:** True. The summary itself notes this, acknowledging the speculative nature of some statements.
– **Relevance:** True. It’s important to consider the reliability of information when predicting election outcomes.
Fact-checked summary: The Conservative Party is currently leading in the polls and is positioned as a strong contender with significant public support, which is important for predicting their potential seat win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election. Internal dissent within the Liberal Party may further destabilize their position, potentially affecting electoral success and impacting the number of seats won by the Conservative Party. Additionally, while there is anticipation of a possible spring federal election in Canada, the newsfeed contains rumors and unverified claims, highlighting the importance of considering the reliability of information when forecasting election outcomes.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.35, “between 172 and 205”: 0.4, “between 206 and 240”: 0.2, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 4)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.1, “between 172 and 205”: 0.4, “between 206 and 240”: 0.39, “more than 240”: 0.1] – confidence: 5)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.05, “between 172 and 205”: 0.25, “between 206 and 240”: 0.5, “more than 240”: 0.2] – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 5
# LLM responses: 3
Model value :
* less than 172: 0.101
* between 172 and 205: 0.404
* between 206 and 240: 0.3939
* more than 240: 0.1011
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews). A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The AI analyses suggest that while the Conservative Party is currently leading in polls and has strong public support, their chances of achieving an unprecedented gain of over 240 seats in the Canadian federal elections are low due to the competitive political landscape and historical voting trends. While internal dissent within the Liberal Party may advantage the Conservatives, there are numerous uncertainties and potential disruptions—such as errors in polling, unexpected scandals, shifts in public opinion, and the actual timing of the election—that could affect the election outcome. Therefore, the Conservative Party is expected to achieve a significant but moderate increase in seats, likely within the range of 172 to 205, unless unforeseen events significantly alter the current dynamics.
Runtime: 195 seconds for all forecasts on this page.
Past Multi-AI Oracle Forecasts
Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports
Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
