How many state-based conflict deaths in Syria will be reported by ACLED for the month of June 2025?
Here’s what Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts today:
Model value:
* Less than 100: 6%
* Between 100 and 250: 41%
* Between 250 and 500: 35%
* Between 500 and 1000: 12%
* Greater than 1000: 6%
Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: ACLED Syria conflict June 2025
News from various sources:
The collection of articles and reports about the Syria conflict highlights significant developments as of June 2025, following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024:
1. **End of Assad’s Rule**: Bashar al-Assad fled Syria in December 2024 after a rebel offensive, closing over five decades of Assad family rule and sparking hopes for an end to the long-standing conflict.
2. **Human Toll and Displacement**:
– The Syrian conflict resulted in approximately 656,493 deaths, including both civilians and combatants, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
– Over 100,000 people have been forcibly disappeared since the conflict began in 2011.
– An estimated 13.4 million Syrians remain displaced, with many living as refugees in neighboring countries. About 1.4 million have returned home since December 2024.
3. **Post-Regime Challenges**:
– The interim government, led by a former jihadist, faces challenges related to sporadic violence, accountability, and massive displacement.
– Human rights groups continue to identify mass graves and work toward locating missing persons, exacerbated by the war’s chaos.
4. **Continuing Conflict and Instability**:
– Despite Assad’s departure, Syria remains unstable, with sporadic violence and a fragmented control structure among various factions.
– The Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are integrating with the Syrian army, while clashes with Turkey and Arab tribes continue.
– There are ongoing concerns about the presence and actions of the Islamic State, which maintains a presence in parts of Syria.
5. **International and Diplomatic Efforts**:
– A delicate and complex geopolitical environment exists, with Russia, Iran, Turkey, and the U.S. taking different roles in the region.
– Efforts to normalize relations with the international community are ongoing, with diplomatic efforts including potential lifting or easing of sanctions by entities like the EU and the U.S.
– Talks between Israel and Syria aim to de-escalate tensions, although violence continues sporadically.
6. **Reconstruction and Tech Initiatives**:
– Efforts are underway to rebuild Syria’s infrastructure, with an energy deal signed for the construction of gas and solar power plants.
– Syrian-Americans and technologists are working to initiate a tech industry, despite significant infrastructure challenges and ongoing sanctions.
7. **Future Outlook**:
– The situation remains volatile, with ongoing diplomatic, humanitarian, and military challenges.
– The Syrian interim government continues to face the daunting task of rebuilding and reconciliation in a war-torn country.
These highlights reflect the complexity and evolving nature of the post-Assad era in Syria, as the nation grapples with the aftermath of a prolonged conflict.
Fact-checking news summary:
To assess the specific facts and their relevance to the question of how many state-actor conflict deaths will be reported by ACLED in Syria in June 2025, we examine each fact stated in the summary. Each fact is evaluated for correctness, importance to the resolution of the original question, and overall relevance.
1. **End of Assad’s Rule**: Bashar al-Assad fled Syria in December 2024 after a rebel offensive, closing over five decades of Assad family rule.
– **Correctness**: Cannot verify (future event).
– **Importance**: Important. It signifies a major shift in Syria’s political landscape, potentially affecting conflict dynamics.
– **Relevance**: True. This event can influence the number of conflict deaths reported.
2. **Human Toll and Displacement (656,493 deaths, including both civilians and combatants)**:
– **Correctness**: Cannot verify (statistic may be outdated or future).
– **Importance**: Important. The context of previous deaths provides background to ongoing conflict intensity.
– **Relevance**: True. Past death tolls provide context for current or future conflict death rates.
3. ** Over 100,000 people forcibly disappeared since 2011**:
– **Correctness**: Believable based on reports.
– **Importance**: Lesser. Provides context but doesn’t directly affect current conflict deaths.
– **Relevance**: True. Contributes to understanding the human rights situation.
4. **13.4 million Syrians remain displaced; 1.4 million have returned since December 2024**:
– **Correctness**: Cannot verify (future event).
– **Importance**: Important. Displacement can indicate conflict aftermath affecting current death reporting.
– **Relevance**: True. Displacement and return patterns show population stability or instability.
5. **Interim government led by a former jihadist**:
– **Correctness**: Cannot verify (future speculative).
– **Importance**: Important. Leadership impacts conflict dynamics.
– **Relevance**: True. Leadership type affects stability and conflict rates.
6. **Continuing Conflict and Instability**:
– **Correctness**: Likely true. Continuation of existing issues makes it plausible.
– **Importance**: Critical. Directly linked to conflict deaths in June 2025.
– **Relevance**: True. Current instability impacts ongoing death rates.
7. **SDF integration with the Syrian army, ongoing clashes with Turkey and Arab tribes**:
– **Correctness**: Likely true. Known ongoing tensions.
– **Importance**: Important. Can affect military actions and deaths.
– **Relevance**: True. Directly influences military conflict reporting.
8. **Presence of Islamic State in parts of Syria**:
– **Correctness**: Likely true. IS presence is a known aspect.
– **Importance**: Important. Major influence on conflict and death tolls.
– **Relevance**: True. Directly impacts conflict dynamics and deaths.
9. **International and Diplomatic Efforts**:
– **Correctness**: Likely true. International involvement is ongoing.
– **Importance**: Important. Affects potential peace and conflict reductions.
– **Relevance**: True. Diplomacy can influence conflict occurrence.
10. **Reconstruction and Tech Initiatives**:
– **Correctness**: Cannot verify (future).
– **Importance**: Lesser. Impacts long-term stability, not immediate conflict deaths.
– **Relevance**: True. Indirect influence through economic stability.
11. **Volatile Future Outlook**:
– **Correctness**: Speculative. Projected from current trends.
– **Importance**: Important. General context for conflict prediction.
– **Relevance**: True. Broad context impacting conflict trends.
Overall, the most critical facts include the ongoing instability, the involvement of international actors, and the presence of IS, as these directly impact the rate of conflict deaths, which is the focus of the original question. Other facts provide context and background but have less immediate relevance to the specific question of how many state-actor conflict deaths will occur in June 2025.
Fact-checked summary:
For the question of how many state-actor conflict deaths will be reported by ACLED in Syria in June 2025, certain verifiable facts are of particular importance. The ongoing conflict and instability in Syria are critical and directly linked to the number of conflict deaths expected during this period. This instability is exacerbated by continuing military tensions such as the integration of the SDF with the Syrian army and ongoing clashes with Turkey and Arab tribes, which are known issues that influence conflict dynamics. Moreover, the presence of the Islamic State in parts of Syria remains a significant factor impacting violence and death tolls. Additionally, international and diplomatic efforts continue to play a role in shaping the conflict landscape, potentially affecting peace and conflict reduction. These aspects are crucial in understanding and predicting the potential conflict deaths in Syria, as they directly impact current military actions and conflict rates.
OpenAI gives a base rate of deaths (Carolyn‘s note: OpenAI failed tro return a value)
The question difficulty is rated 7 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
0.40.20.20.10.1
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
Using historical data on conflict deaths in similar contexts, combined with current ongoing factors, I calculate a blend of historical stability in conflict-related deaths and recent escalations due to Islamic State activity, Turkish involvement, and other tensions. Given June figures from previous years and considering current dynamics, I estimate the likelihood this month at 0.5.
Bayesian base rate: 50% (Carolyn’s note: meaning 50% likely the number of deaths will fall between 100 and 500 in June 2025, see bolded text below)
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 18
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate considers the ongoing complexity of the Syrian conflict, which historically reports between 100 and 500 conflict deaths in escalating months with similar criteria. June’s current escalations and tensions suggest staying within this range.
Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Ideally, current day-to-day reports on specific regional escalations, real-time adjustments in international diplomatic measures, and shifts in Turkish or ISIS strategies towards Syria would help refine predictions.
Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Should a significant diplomatic breakthrough occur or if current tensions de-escalate, the number of deaths could be on the lower end of the range. Alternatively, any unforeseen event increasing military actions by internal or external state actors could push the death toll higher.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Ongoing military clashes in Syria continue throughout June 2025.
– The integration of the SDF with the Syrian army remains unstable.
– Tensions between Turkey, Arab tribes, and other actors remain high.
– The presence of the Islamic State in parts of Syria leads to increased violence.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“Less than 100”: 0.15, “Between 100 and 250”: 0.45, “Between 250 and 500”: 0.3, “Between 500 and 1000”: 0.08, “Greater than 1000”: 0.02] – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“Less than 100”: 0.05, “Between 100 and 250”: 0.35, “Between 250 and 500”: 0.45, “Between 500 and 1000”: 0.1, “Greater than 1000”: 0.05] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“Less than 100”: 0.05, “Between 100 and 250”: 0.25, “Between 250 and 500”: 0.3, “Between 500 and 1000”: 0.25, “Greater than 1000”: 0.15] – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
MAPD: Avg: 0.1, Max: 0.13333333333333
# LLM responses: 3
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>
Model value:
* Less than 100: 6%
* Between 100 and 250: 41%
* Between 250 and 500: 35%
* Between 500 and 1000: 12%
* Greater than 1000: 6%
The various AI analyses agree that the ongoing conflict in Syria as of June 2025 indicates heightened tensions but not a full resumption of large-scale warfare. Estimates suggest the conflict death toll will range between 100 and 500, driven by factors such as unstable SDF integration with the Syrian army, tensions between Turkey and Arab tribes, and the presence of the Islamic State. While historical data supports this prediction, the possibility of diplomatic breakthroughs or unforeseen escalations, such as a significant Turkish military operation or large-scale IS attacks, could alter the outcome. There’s recognition that unreliable reporting or definitional ambiguities in what constitutes ‘state-actor’ deaths could also affect these estimates. Overall, while the current situation points towards moderate conflict intensity, both unexpected escalations and de-escalations remain plausible and could significantly impact the death toll.
Runtime: 175 seconds.
Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy ’s bots —>
Below, a forecast of state-based conflict fatalities for Syria in the VIEWS machine forecasting competition, which is an aggregate of the forecasts of twenty competitors. Our botmasters, Phil Godzin and Jeremy Lichtman, are conducting a side experiment with VIEWS.
