What is the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 35%, up from 15% Friday.
Obtaining outside newsfeed from AskNews: Here are the current news articles relevant to the keywords “US Steel Nippon Steel merger” from reliable sources
1. **Title:** Time line: U.S. Steel’s long journey toward Nippon Steel
**URL:** [bizjournals.com](https://www.bizjournals.com)
**Summary:** Nippon Steel’s $55-a-share cash bid for United States Steel Corp. was announced on Dec. 18, 2023, but the deal has been met with opposition from the United Steelworkers union and a bipartisan group of critics. Despite efforts from Nippon Steel to save the deal, including adding $1.4 billion in improvements to USW-represented facilities and targeting the end of 2024 for the deal to close, the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States review has been extended until Dec. 31. President Joe Biden has expressed opposition to the sale, saying U.S. Steel “must remain domestically owned and operated.”
2. **Title:** President Biden given fifteen days to decide whether Nippon Steel of Japan acquiring U.S. Steel works for the company
**URL:** [beavercountyradio.com](https://www.beavercountyradio.com)
**Summary:** Nippon Steel has been given 15 days by President Joe Biden to decide whether to acquire U.S. Steel. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States has approved the analysis of the acquisition, which would see Nippon Steel gain control of U.S. Steel. According to Nippon Steel, the company will close around the opening quarter of 2025, although the original closing date was the third quarter of this year.
3. **Title:** Nippon Steel-U.S. Steel Merger Poses No National Security Threat
**URL:** [freedomsphoenix.com](https://www.freedomsphoenix.com)
**Summary:** The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) has decided not to recommend blocking Japan’s Nippon Steel’s $15 billion acquisition of U.S. Steel, citing no national security threat. This decision is not surprising, given the close alliance between the U.S. and Japan. President Joe Biden has officially opposed the merger, stating that “it is vital for [U.S. Steel] to remain an American steel company that is domestically owned and operated.”
4. **Title:** Nippon Steel Pushes Deadline to Close U.S. Steel Deal as Biden Decision Looms
**URL:** [abbonews.com](https://www.abbonews.com)
**Summary:** Nippon Steel has pushed back the closing date for its $14.9 billion purchase of United States Steel to the first quarter of 2025, citing the need for a fair and fact-based evaluation of the acquisition by U.S. President Joe Biden. Biden has 15 days to decide whether to approve or block the deal, which has faced intense opposition from the United Steelworkers union and politicians.
5. **Title:** Nippon Steel Extends Deadline for US Steel Acquisition
**URL:** [ecobolsa.com](https://www.ecobolsa.com)
**Summary:** Nippon Steel has extended the deadline to close its purchase of US Steel due to the ongoing review of the operation by the US government. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) referred the matter to President Joe Biden, who must make a final determination on whether to approve or block the acquisition within 15 days after the referral.
*Generated by AI at AskNews on December 30, 2024 01:01 PM. Wanna see more? Checkout our custom written stories and state of the art Event Tracking https://asknews.app*
Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“Reports indicate that Nippon Steel’s proposed acquisition of U.S. Steel for approximately $15 billion has faced significant hurdles, including opposition from the United Steelworkers union and political figures, alongside scrutiny from the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS). While CFIUS has not identified any national security threats, President Joe Biden has opposed the merger, emphasizing the importance of U.S. Steel remaining domestically owned. The deal’s closing has been pushed to early 2025 as Nippon Steel seeks to address concerns and facilitate a comprehensive evaluation. President Biden has a 15-day window to make a final decision on whether to approve or block the acquisition.”
Fact-checking news summary:
Here’s a list of specific facts from the summary:
1. **Fact**: Nippon Steel has proposed acquiring U.S. Steel for approximately $15 billion.
– **Correctness**: True, as this fact appears internally consistent within the summary, and it is a plausible acquisition amount in such contexts.
– **Relevance**: True, because the financial details of the proposed acquisition are central to understanding the merger’s implications and possible opposition.
2. **Fact**: The proposed acquisition has faced opposition from the United Steelworkers union.
– **Correctness**: True, labor unions, such as the United Steelworkers, typically express concerns over mergers that might affect employment or worker rights.
– **Relevance**: True, as union opposition can influence the outcome of the merger and is relevant to its likelihood of proceeding.
3. **Fact**: Political figures have opposed the proposed acquisition.
– **Correctness**: True, given the summary’s claim about President Biden’s opposition, it is consistent that other political figures may also oppose it.
– **Relevance**: True, political opposition is directly relevant as it affects the decision-making and approval process of the merger.
4. **Fact**: The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) is scrutinizing the merger.
– **Correctness**: True, CFIUS routinely reviews foreign acquisitions of U.S. companies for national security concerns.
– **Relevance**: True, because CFIUS’s review and findings could significantly impact the merger’s approval.
5. **Fact**: CFIUS has not identified any national security threats with the proposed merger.
– **Correctness**: True, based on the summary. The lack of identified threats could suggest a smoother path to approval as far as CFIUS is concerned.
– **Relevance**: True, since national security concerns could directly hinder the merger’s advancement, their absence is significant.
6. **Fact**: President Joe Biden has opposed the merger, emphasizing the importance of U.S. Steel remaining domestically owned.
– **Correctness**: True, as political leaders might oppose foreign acquisitions of critical domestic industries for strategic or economic reasons.
– **Relevance**: True, presidential opposition is highly relevant and can be determinative in whether the merger is approved.
7. **Fact**: The deal’s closing has been pushed to early 2025.
– **Correctness**: True, the summary suggests this timing, typically indicating a need for extended reviews and negotiations.
– **Relevance**: True, as the timeline directly relates to whether the merger will be announced by January 21, 2025.
8. **Fact**: Nippon Steel seeks to address concerns and facilitate a comprehensive evaluation of the merger.
– **Correctness**: True, as the summary implies ongoing efforts to mitigate opposition and facilitate the merger process.
– **Relevance**: True, because these efforts could influence the potential approval and timing of the merger announcement.
9. **Fact**: President Biden has a 15-day window to make a final decision on whether to approve or block the acquisition.
– **Correctness**: True, as such decision windows are standard procedural aspects following a detailed review.
– **Relevance**: True, because the President’s decision within this timeframe will directly determine the merger’s fate and announcement timing.
These facts collectively contribute to understanding the dynamics and likelihood of the merger being announced by the specified date.
Fact-checked summary:
Nippon Steel has proposed acquiring U.S. Steel for approximately $15 billion, but the merger faces opposition from the United Steelworkers union and political figures, including President Joe Biden, who emphasizes the importance of U.S. Steel remaining domestically owned. The merger is under scrutiny by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), which has not identified any national security threats, potentially easing the path to approval. Despite these challenges, Nippon Steel is actively working to address concerns and facilitate a thorough evaluation of the merger. The deal’s closing has been pushed to early 2025, and President Biden has a 15-day window to make a final decision on the acquisition, a decision that will be crucial in determining if the merger will be announced by January 21, 2025.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.3
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate reflects the overall complexity and opposition surrounding international mergers involving critical domestic industries such as steel. Historically, such mergers face a range of political and regulatory hurdles that can significantly impact their approval likelihood, especially with substantial opposition from labor unions and political figures. However, the CFIUS’s lack of national security objections suggests some positive factors. Given these elements, the base rate is set at a moderately low level.
Some potential divergent considerations that might effect the base rate:
Potential divergent factors that might increase the likelihood of approval include successful negotiations by Nippon Steel with the United Steelworkers union, creating a favorable view of economic benefits from the merger. Additionally, changes in political dynamics or priorities highlighting U.S. economic interests abroad over domestic ownership concerns might sway decision-making. Similarly, any significant change in the geopolitical landscape that could impact strategic considerations for CFIUS or political leaders before the January 21 deadline could influence the final outcome.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Nippon Steel addresses and resolves key concerns of the United Steelworkers union regarding the merger. (Moderately likely) – Political opposition, including that from President Biden, is sufficiently mitigated or outweighed by supportive factors. (Moderately unlikely) – CFIUS provides a favorable review without national security objections. (Highly likely) – Final decision by President Biden allows the merger to proceed. (Moderately unlikely)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.25 – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.4 – confidence: 5)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 5)
Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.35
Base rate: 0.3 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.06
Confidence: 5
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.29
Reverse Mellers: 0.4
Theory of Mind: 0.5 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.2
Close Type: B (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Model value (not submitted): 0.35
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews).
A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The merger faces substantial challenges, predominantly due to political opposition from President Biden and the United Steelworkers union, who both prioritize domestic ownership of strategic U.S. assets. Although the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) has not identified national security threats, the political climate creates a significant hurdle. The timeline is compressed with only 22 days remaining and requires multiple stakeholder approvals, including final Presidential authorization, making resolution by January 21, 2025, less probable. However, Nippon Steel’s efforts to address concerns and the lack of security objections offer some positive potential. Possible shifts in geopolitical dynamics or successful negotiations with the United Steelworkers could alter the outcome, but these remain uncertain factors. The reliability of the information and any unforeseen geopolitical changes could also impact the decision.
Given the agreement of the Dock Workers to salary increases, both union and the port will return to the bargaining table on Jan. 15, 2025 to discuss automation and other issues, what’s the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 65%, down from 70% Friday.
Obtaining outside newsfeed from AskNews. Here are the current news articles relevant to the keywords “dock workers strike” from reliable sources:
1. **Title:** Transportation unions face key dates that could mean strikes in 2025
**URL:** [nj.com](https://www.nj.com)
**Summary:** Major transportation unions, including dockworkers on East Coast and Gulf Coast ports, are engaged in contentious contract talks. The International Longshoreman’s Association (ILA) is close to potential strike dates in 2025, which could come to a head in January.
2. **Title:** US sees surging worker strikes in 2024
**URL:** [socialnews.xyz](https://www.socialnews.xyz)
**Summary:** The United States has seen a surge in worker strikes in 2024, with notable actions from dockworkers. The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) is preparing to strike over automation concerns as workers demand better wages and working conditions.
3. **Title:** Trump boost to dockworkers unions changes talks ahead of January strike deadline
**URL:** [washingtonexaminer.com](https://www.washingtonexaminer.com)
**Summary:** President-elect Donald Trump has endorsed the International Longshoremen’s Association’s demand to stop automation at U.S. ports, potentially lowering the odds of a damaging strike when the current contract expires in mid-January.
4. **Title:** Trump backs dockworkers’ union preparing to strike over automation
**URL:** [wsav.com](https://www.wsav.com)
**Summary:** President-elect Trump has expressed support for the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) as they prepare to strike over automation in mid-January. The ILA represents over 40,000 dockworkers concerned about job losses due to automation.
5. **Title:** Dockworkers and Teachers Join Strike Against Pension Reform
**URL:** [latribune.fr](https://www.latribune.fr)
**Summary:** The CGT ports and docks union has called for a two-day strike to protest against the government’s pension reform. Dockworkers are seeking better working conditions and more generous retirement benefits as part of a broader social movement against government policies.
*Generated by AI at AskNews on December 30, 2024 01:02 PM. Wanna see more? Checkout our custom written stories and state of the art Event Tracking https://asknews.app*
Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“The newsfeed highlights increasing tension among U.S. dockworkers affiliated with the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) as they prepare for potential strikes due to stalled contract negotiations and concerns over job automation. President-elect Donald Trump has expressed support for the dockworkers, particularly in their opposition to automation at U.S. ports, which could influence the trajectory of forthcoming discussions. Notably, these developments are part of a broader surge in U.S. worker strikes in 2024, reflecting demands for improved wages and working conditions across various sectors. Additionally, dockworkers in France have been involved in strikes as part of a wider protest against government pension reforms, aligning with other social movements. Further complexities are anticipated as key dates related to these issues approach in early 2025.”
Fact-checking news summary:
Based on the summary, here is a list of specific facts, their correctness (true/false), and their relevance to the outcome of the probability of a strike in Q1 2025 (true/false):
1. **Fact**: U.S. dockworkers affiliated with the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) are preparing for potential strikes due to stalled contract negotiations and concerns over job automation.
– **Correctness**: True. The ILA represents U.S. dockworkers and there have been tensions related to automation and contract negotiations historically.
– **Relevance**: True. The concerns over stalled negotiations and automation are directly relevant to the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
2. **Fact**: President-elect Donald Trump has expressed support for the dockworkers, particularly in their opposition to automation at U.S. ports.
– **Correctness**: False. Donald Trump was elected President in 2016, and as of 2023, he is not President-elect. This specific support for dockworkers in their opposition to automation is not a verifiable fact.
– **Relevance**: False. This incorrect fact does not contribute to assessing the probability of a strike.
3. **Fact**: There is a broader surge in U.S. worker strikes in 2024, reflecting demands for improved wages and working conditions across various sectors.
– **Correctness**: This claim is plausible given recent trends in labor actions and demands in the U.S., but without specific verification, it cannot be confirmed True or False definitively. We’ll consider it True for relevance.
– **Relevance**: True. The overall climate of increased labor strikes could influence dockworker actions and make a strike more likely in Q1 2025.
4. **Fact**: Dockworkers in France have been involved in strikes as part of a wider protest against government pension reforms.
– **Correctness**: True. There have been recent strikes in France related to pension reforms, which include dockworkers.
– **Relevance**: False. French strikes do not have a direct impact on the probability of a U.S. dockworker strike in Q1 2025.
5. **Fact**: Key dates related to these issues approach in early 2025.
– **Correctness**: True. The mention of a return to the bargaining table on Jan. 15, 2025, indicates an approaching key date.
– **Relevance**: True. The meeting date is directly related to the potential for a strike in Q1 2025 as it could impact negotiations.
Fact-checked summary:
U.S. dockworkers affiliated with the International Longshoremen’s Association are considering the possibility of strikes due to ongoing issues with stalled contract negotiations and concerns over job automation, highlighting a risk of labor actions if these are not resolved. Additionally, a key meeting is scheduled for January 15, 2025, where union and port representatives will resume discussions on automation and other relevant matters. The broader context of increasing labor strikes across the U.S. in 2024, driven by demands for better wages and working conditions, might also influence dockworkers’ actions, suggesting a heightened probability of a strike in Q1 2025 if negotiations do not progress satisfactorily.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.65
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate of 0.65 is based on several factors. Historically, labor negotiations involving major changes such as automation are contentious and often lead to strikes if not managed well. The current climate in the U.S. is characterized by increased labor activism, giving a supportive environment for strikes. Given the recent news that negotiations are stalled, there is a significant probability of a strike if no progress is made by the January meeting.
Some potential divergent considerations that might effect the base rate:
Several factors could reduce the likelihood of a strike occurring. Successful mediation or negotiation in the January 15, 2025, meeting might resolve key issues, especially if compromises are reached regarding automation. Public and governmental pressure might also lead to accelerated negotiations. Additionally, if dockworkers believe that striking could negatively impact their bargaining position or lead to significant personal financial hardship, they may choose alternative protest forms.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Contract negotiations between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and port representatives remain stalled or become contentious, with a likelihood of ‘Very Likely’. – The January 15, 2025, meeting does not produce a satisfactory resolution, with a likelihood of ‘Likely’. – Broader labor movement trends in the U.S. continue to support industrial actions, with a likelihood of ‘Very Likely’. – The dockworkers decide that striking is the preferred action, with a likelihood of ‘Likely’.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.65 – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.75 – confidence: 7)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.65 – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.65
Base rate: 0.65 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.05
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.71
Reverse Mellers: 0.6
Theory of Mind: 0.5 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.51
Close Type: C (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Model value (not submitted): 0.65
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews).
A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The various AI analyses highlight several reasons supporting a significant likelihood of a dock worker strike in Q1 2025. These include the focus on automation in the upcoming January 15 meeting, a historically contentious issue in labor negotiations, and the ongoing trend of increased labor activism in the U.S. Furthermore, recent contract negotiation stalls and the critical timing of unresolved issues align with historical patterns that often lead to strikes. Nonetheless, the possibility of avoiding a strike exists, contingent on successful negotiations during the January 15 meeting, potential goodwill from recent salary agreements, and the influence of governmental or public pressure. Alternatives to striking may be considered by dockworkers if a strike seems too economically risky or if other forms of protest could be more effective.
How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today,
* less than 172: 9.52%
* between 172 and 205: 38.15%
* between 206 and 240: 33.33%
* more than 240: 19.05%
Obtaining outside newsfeed from AskNews. Here are the current news articles relevant to the keywords “Conservative Party Canada election” from reliable sources:
1. **Title:** Conservatives say they will move motion of non-confidence in Liberal Government
**URL:** [voiceonline.com](https://voiceonline.com)
**Summary:** The Conservative Party announced that they will move a motion of non-confidence in the Liberal Government on January 7, aiming to force an election. This motion has the support of the Bloc Quebecois and the NDP, representing a majority of MPs. The Conservatives argue that the Liberal Government has lost Parliament’s confidence and that Canadians need an election now.
2. **Title:** Gerald Butts doubts Trudeau’s ability to lead Liberal Party in next election
**URL:** [journaldemontreal.com](https://journaldemontreal.com)
**Summary:** Gerald Butts, a former principal advisor to Justin Trudeau, believes it is unlikely that the Prime Minister will lead the Liberal Party in the next election in 2025. Butts attributes this potential departure to the recent resignation of Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, which has weakened Trudeau’s position. The Conservative Party is expected to present a motion of no confidence soon, potentially leading to earlier elections.
3. **Title:** Most readers say they will vote for this party in Canada’s next election
**URL:** [insauga.com](https://insauga.com)
**Summary:** A recent poll indicates that 70.34% of readers plan to vote for the Conservative Party in Canada’s next election, followed by the Liberals at 14.37% and the NDP at 7.19%. Additionally, 85.7% of respondents believe the Justin Trudeau Liberals will not win the next election, highlighting the Conservative Party’s strong position ahead of the upcoming vote.
4. **Title:** Canada’s 2025 Elections: A Crucial Year Amidst Conservative Rise and Growing Concerns
**URL:** [ledevoir.com](https://ledevoir.com)
**Summary:** Jagmeet Singh, leader of the New Democratic Party, has expressed concerns about the rise of the Conservative Party leading up to the 2025 elections. Singh attributes this trend to growing economic challenges, such as inflation affecting the cost of living, which may drive voters toward right-wing parties. The article emphasizes the significance of the upcoming elections in light of these developments.
*Generated by AI at AskNews on December 30, 2024 01:02 PM. Wanna see more? Checkout our custom written stories and state of the art Event Tracking https://asknews.app*
Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“Recent reports on the Canadian political scene suggest that the Conservative Party is preparing to move a motion of non-confidence against the Liberal Government, which could potentially trigger an election. This motion reportedly has backing from the Bloc Quebecois and the NDP, indicating it might represent a parliamentary majority. Speculation around Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s leadership persists, following the resignation of Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, with former advisor Gerald Butts suggesting Trudeau might not lead the Liberal Party in the 2025 election. Polls indicate a strong lead for the Conservatives, who are favored by a significant percentage of respondents, as economic issues such as inflation are believed to be influencing voter sentiment. The New Democratic Party has expressed concerns regarding the Conservative rise amid these economic challenges, underscoring the importance of the forthcoming elections. However, the reliability of these sources and claims should be considered with caution.”
Fact-checking news summary:
Here is a list of specific facts stated in the summary, their verification status, and their relevance to the question about the Conservative Party’s seats in the next election:
1. **Fact**: The Conservative Party is preparing to move a motion of non-confidence against the Liberal Government.
– **Correct**: This fact would require current, specific reporting to verify. It is plausible within the political context.
– **Relevance**: True, as this could trigger an election which is relevant to the question about seats.
2. **Fact**: The motion of non-confidence reportedly has backing from the Bloc Quebecois and the NDP.
– **Correct**: This needs verification with current information to confirm. It is plausible but not confirmed by the summary alone.
– **Relevance**: True, as it suggests a potential parliamentary majority that could lead to an election.
3. **Fact**: Speculation exists around Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s leadership following Chrystia Freeland’s resignation.
– **Correct**: Speculation is common in political context, but the specific cause (Freeland’s resignation) needs verification.
– **Relevance**: False, as this does not directly impact the number of seats Conservatives might win.
4. **Fact**: Chrystia Freeland has resigned as Deputy Prime Minister.
– **Correct**: This requires verification. As of my last update, Chrystia Freeland had not resigned, making this fact potentially false depending on new developments.
– **Relevance**: False, unless it directly impacts election dynamics.
5. **Fact**: Gerald Butts suggested Trudeau might not lead the Liberal Party in the 2025 election.
– **Correct**: This is specific and needs verification. It is possible but would require current quotes or reports.
– **Relevance**: False, as it is speculative and does not directly relate to Conservative seats.
6. **Fact**: Polls indicate a strong lead for the Conservatives.
– **Correct**: This would need current polling data for verification. It is plausible but not certain without specifics.
– **Relevance**: True, as polling influences expectations about seats.
7. **Fact**: Economic issues such as inflation are influencing voter sentiment.
– **Correct**: This is generally credible based on global economic trends but requires specific context for confirmation.
– **Relevance**: True, as economic issues can influence election outcomes.
8. **Fact**: The New Democratic Party has expressed concerns regarding the Conservative rise amid economic challenges.
– **Correct**: This requires verification from NDP statements but is plausible.
– **Relevance**: True, as it indicates political dynamics that affect election outcomes.
9. **Fact**: The reliability of sources and claims should be considered with caution.
– **Correct**: True, as it advises skepticism, a reasonable stance without specific data.
– **Relevance**: False, as this is a general advisory rather than an election prediction.
The facts primarily provide a context for political dynamics that may influence when and how an election is called, but do not give a direct answer to the number of seats the Conservative Party will win. Some facts are relevant as they affect the possibility of an election being held or indicate political sentiment, which could impact eventual outcomes.
Fact-checked summary:
The number of seats the Conservative Party will win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election remains uncertain. However, several true and relevant factors may influence the outcome. There is a possibility of the Conservative Party moving a motion of non-confidence against the Liberal Government, which, if supported by parties like the Bloc Quebecois and the NDP, could trigger an early election. Current polls indicate a strong lead for the Conservatives, suggesting favorable voter sentiment toward them. Furthermore, economic issues such as inflation are influencing voter sentiment, and the New Democratic Party has expressed concerns about the Conservative rise amid these challenges. These elements can affect the political landscape and potentially the number of seats the Conservative Party might win.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.35, “between 172 and 205”: 0.45, “between 206 and 240”: 0.15, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.05, “between 172 and 205”: 0.4, “between 206 and 240”: 0.35, “more than 240”: 0.2] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.1, “between 172 and 205”: 0.3, “between 206 and 240”: 0.4, “more than 240”: 0.2] – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
# LLM responses: 3
Model value (not submitted):
* less than 172: 0.0952
* between 172 and 205: 0.381
* between 206 and 240: 0.3333
* more than 240: 0.1905
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews).
A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The AI analyses indicate that while current polling shows strong support for the Conservative Party in Canada, there are numerous factors that could influence the outcome of an upcoming election. The most probable scenario is a strong but not unprecedented performance with a seat range of 172-205. Potential factors affecting Conservative success include economic challenges like inflation and the possibility of a non-confidence motion triggering an early election. However, these predictions could be invalidated by unreliable polling, unexpected political events, regional dynamics in provinces like Quebec and Ontario, and shifts in voter sentiment due to improved economic conditions or changing public opinion during the campaign. Furthermore, the complexity of Canada’s multi-party system and potential strategic voting could also result in unforeseen outcomes.
Runtime: 209 seconds.
Past Multi-AI Oracle Forecasts
Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports
Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
