Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of July 2025?
Here’s what Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicts today: Considering all factors, I estimate:
Probability: 15%
43–54 minutes read time
Perplexity response:
{think}
Okay, let’s tackle this question about whether there will be a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in July 2025. First, I need to look through the search results provided to find the most relevant information.
Starting with the first source from CBS News (2025-07-23), it mentions that US envoy Steve Witkoff is going to Europe to push for a ceasefire. Israel proposed a new map with withdrawal zones, which has been a point of contention. Also, they’re optimistic about a 60-day ceasefire and hostage release. However, Israel wants to keep troops in southern Gaza, and Hamas sees that as a threat. The Knesset’s recess might give Netanyahu flexibility, but military operations are ongoing. So this seems recent and directly relevant.
Next, the Polymarket links [2] and [4] from July 23 and 21. These are prediction markets tracking whether a ceasefire is reached by July 22 or 15. The resolution is based on an official agreement before the date, regardless of when the ceasefire starts. Since the current date is July 23, the July 15 market would have already resolved. The July 22 one is still pending, but without info on resolution, I can note that the market is active but not resolved yet.
The ABC News article (2025-07-22) mentions 25 countries urging an end to the war, accusing Israel of hindering aid. Israel denies this, blaming Hamas for delaying talks. They say Hamas refuses a concrete ceasefire deal. This shows international pressure but Hamas’s resistance.
Times of Israel (2025-07-22) reports Hamas negotiators can’t reach their Gaza leaders, slowing talks. Israel submitted updated troop redeployment maps, which mediators thought were more flexible, awaiting Hamas’s response. However, Hamas hasn’t responded yet, and military actions in Gaza continue. This indicates a stalemate but possibilities if response comes.
Putting this together: Recent efforts are ongoing, with optimism from US and regional mediators, but significant obstacles remain. The ceasefire proposal’s approval hinges on Hamas accepting the new map, which they haven’t. The July 22 Polymarket event might have passed, but as of July 23, no official agreement is confirmed. International pressure and Hamas’s internal issues are key factors here. The answer needs to highlight the negotiation progress, sticking points, and current status as of the latest date.
**Key Sources and Summaries**
1. **CBS News (2025-07-23)**
– **Title**: U.S. Envoy in Europe to Push Gaza Ceasefire and Peace Deal
– **Description**: U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to travel to Europe to advance ceasefire negotiations. Israel proposed a new withdrawal map, but disagreements persist over troop presence in southern Gaza. The Trump administration is cautiously optimistic about a 60-day truce and hostage release. Military operations continue, with new evacuation orders in Gaza[1].
2. **Polymarket (2025-07-23)**
– **Title**: Israel x Hamas Ceasefire by July 22?
– **Description**: This prediction market resolves to “Yes” if an official agreement is reached before July 22, regardless of when the ceasefire starts. The market remains active as of the resolution date[2].
3. **ABC News (2025-07-22)**
– **Title**: 25 Countries Sign Statement Calling for End of Gaza War
– **Description**: International condemnation of Israel’s humanitarian restrictions dominates a joint statement. Israel rejected the criticism, blaming Hamas for rejecting ceasefire terms and delaying hostage-release talks[3].
4. **Polymarket (2025-07-21)**
– **Title**: Israel x Hamas Ceasefire by July 15?
– **Description**: A similar prediction market tracked expectations for a ceasefire by July 15, resolving based on official agreements. The July 15 deadline has passed without resolution[4].
5. **Times of Israel (2025-07-22)**
– **Title**: Hamas Negotiators Can’t Reach Gaza Leaders, Slowing Hostage Talks
– **Description**: Hamas negotiators in Doha face communication barriers with Gaza leadership, delaying responses to Israel’s revised troop-withdrawal proposal. Military actions in central Gaza further complicate negotiations[5].
—
**Analysis of Negotiation Dynamics**
**Recent Developments**:
– **Israeli Proposal**: Israel submitted updated maps proposing troop withdrawals in Gaza, seen as a concession but rejected by Hamas over concerns about continued military presence[1][5].
– **U.S. and International Mediation**: The Trump administration remains cautiously optimistic, while European and Arab diplomats pressure for agreement[1][3].
– **Hamas Communication Issues**: Disruptions in communication between Hamas negotiators and Gaza leaders have stalled talks, with no formal response to Israel’s latest proposal[5].
**Key Obstacles**:
1. **Troop Presence Dispute**: Israel insists on maintaining forces in southern Gaza, which Hamas views as undermining ceasefire credibility[1][5].
2. **Humanitarian Challenges**: International criticism targets Israel’s aid restrictions, while Israel blames Hamas for rejecting terms[3].
3. **Timeline Pressures**: The Knesset’s summer recess (starts July 27) may ease political constraints for Netanyahu, but delays threaten further groundwater[1][5].
**Market and Diplomatic Signals**:
– **Prediction Markets**: The July 22 Polymarket event has not yet resolved, indicating no official agreement as of July 23[2]. The July 15 market already resolved with no declared winners at the time of writing[4].
– **Optimism and Pessimism**: U.S.-aligned optimism contrasts with Hamas’s internal chaos and stalled responses, suggesting a 50-50 likelihood as of late July[1][5].
**Conclusion**: While progress has been made with revised proposals and mediation efforts, unresolved issues—particularly troop deployment and Hamas’s communication breakdown—continue to hinder an immediate ceasefire. As of July 23, no official agreement has been announced.
Grok response:
Below is a detailed rundown of the most relevant news and information concerning the question of whether there will be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in July 2025. As a research assistant, my role is to provide contextual information from recent and authoritative sources without generating forecasts. This question falls under a Political Event category, so I prioritize recent news articles, negotiation updates, and expert opinions from diplomatic and media sources. I’ve focused on the latest developments as of July 23, 2025, drawing from a variety of outlets to cover ongoing talks, stances from both sides, and any indicators of progress or stalemate.
First, I’ll provide a list of 10 citations based on recent sources. These include a mix of news articles, official reports, and public sentiment summaries (e.g., from social media platforms like X, treated as inconclusive indicators of public or expert views). Each citation includes the title, a brief description, the date of publication, and a three-sentence summary of the relevant content.
### List of 10 Citations
1. **Title:** 2025 Gaza War Ceasefire – Wikipedia
**Description:** An overview of ceasefire efforts in the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict.
**Date of Publication:** July 14, 2025
**Summary:** This page details the breakdown of previous ceasefires, including Israel’s airstrikes on March 18, 2025, in response to Hamas’s refusal to release hostages, marking a resumption of full combat. It highlights international mediation attempts, such as those at the United Nations Security Council in October 2023, and notes the humanitarian crisis in Gaza as a key obstacle to negotiations. Overall, it emphasizes the cyclical nature of ceasefires and the challenges in achieving a permanent resolution.
2. **Title:** Gaza Ceasefire Talks on Verge of Collapse, Palestinian Officials Say – BBC News
**Description:** Analysis of stalled negotiations in Qatar, with accusations against Israel.
**Date of Publication:** July 12, 2025
**Summary:** Senior Palestinian officials claim Israel is deliberately delaying talks during its prime minister’s U.S. visit, raising doubts about a near-term agreement. The article discusses a proposed 60-day ceasefire involving hostage releases and aid, but notes unresolved disputes over terms. It underscores growing frustration among mediators as optimism wanes.
3. **Title:** The Latest on Ceasefire Talks Between Israel and Hamas – NPR
**Description:** Updates on the war in Gaza and current negotiation status.
**Date of Publication:** July 14, 2025
**Summary:** NPR reports that ceasefire discussions in Doha have hit roadblocks, with disagreements over Israeli troop withdrawals and Hamas’s demands for a permanent end to hostilities. The piece includes insights from U.S. and Qatari mediators indicating that while a temporary truce is on the table, no final agreement has been reached. It also covers the humanitarian impact, such as ongoing airstrikes, as a factor complicating talks.
4. **Title:** Where Do Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Negotiations Stand? – The New York Times
**Description:** In-depth look at the status of truce proposals and key disagreements.
**Date of Publication:** July 16, 2025
**Summary:** The article states that talks for a two-month truce have stalled due to disputes over aid distribution and the conditions for a permanent ceasefire. It mentions Israel’s insistence on maintaining security control in certain areas, contrasting with Hamas’s demands for full withdrawal. Expert sources, including anonymous diplomats, suggest that without concessions, a July agreement is increasingly unlikely.
5. **Title:** Official Says Gaza Deal ‘More Likely Than Not,’ As Israel Said to Retract Pullback Demands – The Times of Israel
**Description:** Reporting on mediation progress and potential shifts in Israeli policy.
**Date of Publication:** July 16, 2025
**Summary:** Sources involved in mediation indicate that Israel has softened its stance on troop positions, potentially opening a window for a deal within days. However, gaps remain over ending the war entirely, with the article noting intensified Israeli operations if no agreement is reached. It quotes experts suggesting this could be a pivotal moment, though risks of collapse persist.
6. **Title:** Netanyahu Had Ceasefire Deal in April 2024 But Kept Gaza War Going to Stay in Power – Democracy Now!
**Description:** Investigative piece on Israeli leadership’s role in prolonging the conflict.
**Date of Publication:** July 14, 2025
**Summary:** Based on reporting from The New York Times Magazine, the article alleges that Prime Minister Netanyahu rejected earlier ceasefire opportunities to maintain his coalition and avoid personal legal issues. It includes expert opinions from journalists like Ronen Bergman, who argue that political motivations have hindered progress. This context highlights recurring patterns that could affect current negotiations.
7. **Title:** Gaza War – Wikipedia
**Description:** A broader timeline of the conflict, including recent escalations.
**Date of Publication:** July 19, 2025
**Summary:** The page outlines the latest phase of the war, including the January 2025 ceasefire that ended with Israeli airstrikes in March 2025, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis. It reports on sieges and offensives, such as those in Khan Yunis and Rafah, with a high risk of famine as of May 2025. Experts cited emphasize the war’s toll, with calls for international intervention to broker a truce.
8. **Title:** US-Backed Ceasefire Plan for Gaza Still Under Discussion, But Optimism Fading – Reuters
**Description:** Coverage of a proposed 60-day ceasefire and ongoing mediations.
**Date of Publication:** July 15, 2025
**Summary:** The article details negotiations in Doha since July 6, 2025, involving phased hostage releases and Israeli withdrawals, but notes fading optimism due to mutual distrust. It includes statements from U.S. officials backing the plan, while highlighting Hamas’s conditions for a permanent end to hostilities. Expert analysts warn that without immediate breakthroughs, delays could extend beyond July.
9. **Title:** Updates: Hamas Sends ‘Positive’ Response on Ceasefire, Israel Kills 50 – Al Jazeera
**Description:** Live updates on the conflict and negotiation responses.
**Date of Publication:** July 4, 2025 (with ongoing updates)
**Summary:** Al Jazeera reports Hamas’s conditional positive response to a ceasefire proposal, amid reports of Israeli strikes killing dozens, which could derail talks. The piece discusses demands for humanitarian aid and IDF withdrawal, with expert commentators from the region suggesting incremental progress but no immediate declaration. It underscores the volatility, with recent events indicating potential for escalation.
10. **Title:** Posts on X Reflecting Sentiment on Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Discussions
**Description:** A summary of public and expert sentiment from social media platform X regarding negotiations.
**Date of Publication:** Various posts from July 9–23, 2025 (most recent as of July 23, 2025)
**Summary:** Sentiment on X includes mixed predictions, with some users and automated accounts suggesting a possible ceasefire by late July, while others highlight ongoing stalemates and demands from both sides. These posts, often from commentators and AI-driven analyses, indicate growing public frustration and calls for resolution but are inconclusive as evidence, reflecting speculative rather than confirmed developments. Expert-like opinions on the platform emphasize the need for mutual concessions, though they lack the authority of official sources.
### Detailed Rundown of Relevant News and Context
Based on the citations above and additional recent sources, ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas remain fluid but largely stalled as of July 23, 2025. Key updates from the past few weeks show ongoing discussions in Doha and Cairo, mediated by the U.S., Qatar, and Egypt, centered around a U.S.-backed proposal for a 60-day truce. This plan includes phased hostage releases, partial Israeli troop withdrawals from Gaza, and increased humanitarian aid, but disagreements persist over long-term issues like demilitarization and permanent cessation of hostilities. For instance, sources like Reuters and The New York Times report that Israel has submitted revised maps for troop redeployments, which some mediators view as a positive step, though Hamas officials have accused Israel of stalling to maintain leverage.
Recent developments indicate limited movement toward a declaration: On July 16, 2025, The Times of Israel noted that a deal is “more likely than not” if certain demands are met, but optimism has faded since then, with Palestinian officials (as per BBC) claiming deliberate delays. Reports from CNN and Al Jazeera highlight escalating violence, such as Israel’s new ground offensive in Deir al-Balah on July 22, 2025, which has resulted in rising casualties and a worsening humanitarian crisis—estimated at over 111 deaths from recent attacks and a high risk of famine, as documented in updates from July 2024 to March 2025 by the UK House of Commons. Expert opinions, such as those from U.N. mediators and analysts in NPR and Democracy Now!, emphasize that political factors, including Netanyahu’s domestic pressures, are hindering progress, with no authoritative resolution source (e.g., a joint statement from mediators) confirming an agreement as of today.
While historical data shows patterns of temporary ceasefires (e.g., a November 2023 truce that broke down), there are no recent statistics on approval ratings or polling directly tied to this question, as it pertains to negotiations rather than public opinion polls. However, sentiment from X posts suggests a mix of hope and skepticism, with some predicting a potential agreement by late July, though this is treated as inconclusive. No official declaration has been made, and without new concessions, experts warn that the window for a July ceasefire is narrowing. For accurate, up-to-date values, I recommend monitoring diplomatic channels, but based on available information, the situation remains unresolved as of July 23, 2025.
AskNews Deep Usage:
prompt_tokens=21173 completion_tokens=2292 total_tokens=0
AskNews Deep Search Response:
Based on recent negotiations and expert analyses, the likelihood of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas being declared in July 2025 appears low. Here’s the breakdown of key updates and sources:
### **Recent Negotiation Status (July 23–24, 2025)**
1. **Stalled Talks**: Negotiations mediated by Qatar, Egypt, and the U.S. have been ongoing since July 6 but remain deadlocked over core demands. Hamas insists on guarantees for a permanent ceasefire and full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, while Israel refuses to end the war without Hamas’s disarmament and loss of governance [1][3][4][6].
2. **U.S. Pressure**: Special Envoy Steve Witkoff is intensifying diplomatic efforts in Europe and Qatar, but Hamas negotiators reportedly cannot communicate directly with military leaders in Gaza, complicating approvals [1][5][7].
3. **Humanitarian Crisis**: Over 200,000 Palestinians have died in the conflict, and famine conditions are worsening, with 21 children reported dead from malnutrition in three days (July 23) [1][2][14]. Analysts suggest Hamas may face internal pressure to accept temporary relief despite political risks [1][6].
### **Proposed Agreement Details**
– **60-Day Ceasefire Framework**: A U.S.-backed proposal includes a temporary truce, the release of 10 live Israeli hostages and 18 bodies, and Israel freeing Palestinian prisoners. However, both sides reject terms about post-truce military redeployment [3][4][16][22].
– **Israeli Conditions**: PM Netanyahu demands Hamas’s surrender and exile of its leaders, while Hamas seeks full Israeli withdrawal to pre-March 2023 positions [14][16][20].
### **Expert Assessments**
– **Karim Bitar (Sciences Po)**: Notes neither Netanyahu nor Hamas leaders have domestic incentives to agree to major concessions. Previous ceasefires (Nov. 2023, Jan. 2025) collapsed quickly [1][12].
– **Andreas Krieg (King’s College)**: Calls the negotiations “technically progressing but practically stalemated,” emphasizing that Israel retains leverage to prolong the war [1][25].
### **Latest Developments (July 23–24)**
– Israel expanded military operations in Deir el Balah (central Gaza), undermining ceasefire prospects [1][7].
– Mediators warn the “window for a deal is closing,” with no breakthroughs anticipated before July 31 [6][13].
### **Key Obstacles**
1. **Political Will**: Netanyahu faces pressure from hardline coalition allies to reject concessions [20][33]. Hamas fears appearing weak by conceding without guarantees [1][16].
2. **Logistical Challenges**: Hamas negotiators in Doha cannot directly contact Gaza-based leaders, delaying decisions [1][4].
### **Conclusion**
While negotiations are ongoing, the entrenched positions of both parties, lack of trust, and ongoing military actions make a July 2025 ceasefire unlikely. Experts emphasize that without unprecedented U.S./Qatari pressure on Israel or Hamas capitulation, a resolution remains improbable [1][6][25].
**Citations**: [1][3][4][6][7][13][14][16][20][25]
GPT News Summary:
As of July 23, 2025, several recent developments offer insights into the likelihood of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas before August 1, 2025. Here are the key points:
1. **Ongoing Negotiations**: Indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas have intensified, with US, Egyptian, and Qatari mediation. A new ceasefire proposal is on the table, reportedly in the final stages of discussion. According to the **latest updates on July 23**, the US has issued a firm warning to Hamas that its patience is thin, signaling potential withdrawal from negotiations if an agreement is not quickly reached (Masrawy, July 23).
2. **Proposed Agreement Details**: The ceasefire proposal includes a 60-day truce, the release of Israeli hostages, and increased humanitarian aid under UN and Red Crescent supervision. Israel has shown flexibility in negotiations, offering significant changes in force deployment and accepting a reduction to a buffer zone near Rafah (Masrawy, July 23; Sawt Beirut, July 22).
3. **Pressure and Optimism**: Despite the complexity of negotiations, mediators express increased optimism following resolution of key issues. There is pressure to secure the agreement amidst a worsening humanitarian crisis (Sawt Beirut, July 22; Masrawy, July 22).
4. **International Reactions**: A joint statement from 27 countries has condemned Israel’s actions in Gaza and called for an immediate ceasefire. However, Israel rejected this, dismissing international criticism as detached from reality and criticizing Hamas for its handling of hostages (BBC, July 22; News.cn, July 22).
5. **Current Military Situation**: On-the-ground hostilities continue with incursions and airstrikes, adding urgency to ceasefire talks. Notably, Israeli tanks recently moved into Deir al-Balah (Political Dog, July 22).
6. **Potential Resolution Timeline**: Speculation from multiple sources indicates a ceasefire agreement might be signed imminently. Expectations are set for the agreement to be reached “within days,” with mediators working to expedite the process due to severe humanitarian conditions in Gaza and mounting international pressure (Maan News, July 21; Tass, July 21).
Despite the complexity of the negotiations and ongoing military activities, the combination of increased mediator pressure, flexible proposals from Israel, and a deteriorating humanitarian situation in Gaza might lead to a ceasefire agreement by the end of July 2025. However, the situation remains fluid, and developments in the coming days will be critical.
Extracted resolution criteria links:
[]
Adjacent Markets Research:
No relevant and active prediction markets found.
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Anthropic Binary response:
I’ll analyze whether there will be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in July 2025, with today being July 23 and the resolution date being August 1.
## Current Situation Analysis
From the research assistants’ information, I can see that:
1. Negotiations are ongoing but face significant obstacles:
– Israel has proposed new withdrawal maps, but Hamas has concerns about continued Israeli troop presence in southern Gaza
– There’s a proposed 60-day ceasefire framework with hostage releases
– Communication issues exist between Hamas negotiators and Gaza leadership
– Military operations continue in Gaza, including new evacuation orders and operations in Deir el-Balah
2. Timeline pressures:
– Only 8 days remain in July 2025 (from today, July 23, to July 31)
– The Knesset’s summer recess starts July 27, which might ease some political constraints
3. Mediator positions:
– U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff is actively pursuing negotiations
– International pressure is mounting with 25+ countries calling for an end to the war
– Mediators express varying levels of optimism, with some warning “the window for a deal is closing”
## Historical Context and Base Rates
Previous ceasefire attempts during this conflict have often failed or been temporary. Ceasefires occurred in November 2023 and January 2025, but both collapsed. This suggests a pattern of difficulty in maintaining agreements.
The key obstacles remain consistent:
– Israel demands Hamas’s surrender and disarmament
– Hamas demands full Israeli withdrawal and permanent ceasefire guarantees
– Trust issues and ongoing military operations complicate negotiations
## Key Assumptions Analysis
1. **Assumption: Hamas will respond to Israel’s new proposal within the next week (by July 31)**
– Probability of failure: 70%
– Rationale: Communication difficulties between Hamas negotiators and Gaza leadership, plus Hamas’s historical reluctance to accept partial measures suggest a response is unlikely within this short timeframe.
2. **Assumption: Israel will accept Hamas’s conditions if they do respond**
– Probability of failure: 80%
– Rationale: Israel maintains firm positions on security control and has shown limited willingness to compromise on troop presence in southern Gaza. Netanyahu faces domestic political pressure against major concessions.
3. **Assumption: Mediators can bridge the gap between positions within 8 days**
– Probability of failure: 75%
– Rationale: Despite active mediation efforts, the fundamental disagreements remain substantial, and the timeframe is extremely short given the complexity of issues.
## Time Constraints Analysis
With only 8 days remaining in July 2025, the timeframe is extremely tight for resolving complex disagreements. While negotiations can move quickly when parties are aligned, the current evidence suggests significant obstacles that typically require weeks or months to resolve.
## Synthesis and Forecast
Multiple sources indicate active negotiations with some positive developments (new Israeli maps, continued U.S. mediation), but the fundamental obstacles remain:
1. Military operations continue in Gaza
2. Hamas lacks clear communication channels with its leadership
3. Core disagreements persist about troop presence and permanence of any ceasefire
4. Historical pattern shows difficulty in maintaining agreements
While there is some optimism from mediators, the extremely short timeframe (8 days) makes a formal declaration highly unlikely. The situation appears deadlocked on fundamental issues despite tactical movement.
Given the short timeframe, the deep disagreements, communication issues, ongoing military operations, and historical patterns, I assess that a ceasefire declaration before August 1 is unlikely.
Probability: 15%
The extracted probability is: 15%
________________________
Anthropic Binary response:
# Reasoning on Israel-Hamas Ceasefire by July 2025
I need to forecast whether a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas will be declared in the remaining days of July 2025 (July 23-31). This is an “Other Binary Outcome Event” requiring careful analysis of current diplomatic efforts and obstacles.
## Current Situation Analysis
Multiple research assistants provide information about ongoing negotiations as of July 23, 2025:
1. **Negotiation Status**:
– A 60-day ceasefire framework is being discussed with U.S., Qatari, and Egyptian mediation
– Israel has proposed updated maps for troop withdrawal
– Hamas has not formally responded to the latest proposal
– Communication issues between Hamas negotiators and Gaza leadership are slowing talks
2. **Key Obstacles**:
– Israel wants to maintain troops in southern Gaza; Hamas rejects this
– Netanyahu faces political pressure from hardline coalition members
– Military operations continue in Gaza (particularly Deir el-Balah)
– Humanitarian crisis is worsening
3. **Recent Developments**:
– U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff is in Europe pushing for a deal
– International pressure is mounting (25-27 countries issued statements)
– Israel expanded military operations in central Gaza on July 22-23
## Timeline Analysis
With the resolution date of August 1, I only have the period from July 24-31 (8 days) to consider. The ceasefire must be declared within this timeframe to resolve positively.
## Base Rate Considerations
I need to consider the base rate of similar ceasefire declarations:
– Previous ceasefires (November 2023, January 2025) have occurred but were temporary
– Ceasefire negotiations typically take weeks or months to finalize
– Last-minute breakthroughs can occur under sufficient pressure
## Assessing Key Assumptions
1. **Assumption: Hamas will respond to Israel’s updated proposal within days**
– Probability of incorrectness: 60%
– Communication issues with Gaza leadership and Hamas’s historical reluctance suggest delays
2. **Assumption: Netanyahu is willing to make necessary concessions for a deal**
– Probability of incorrectness: 65%
– Historical evidence suggests Netanyahu has political incentives to prolong conflict
3. **Assumption: Military escalation won’t derail talks**
– Probability of incorrectness: 70%
– Recent operations in Deir el-Balah indicate continued military focus
## Sources of Optimism
1. Increased international pressure
2. U.S. diplomatic push
3. Humanitarian crisis creating urgency
4. Israel has shown some flexibility on troop deployment
## Sources of Pessimism
1. Ongoing military operations suggest Israel isn’t prioritizing a ceasefire
2. Communication issues with Hamas leadership
3. Fundamental disagreements on permanent ceasefire and troop presence
4. Short timeframe (8 days) limits opportunity for breakthrough
## Integrating Expert Views
The research assistants provide mixed perspectives:
– One suggests ongoing efforts but significant obstacles
– Another describes likelihood as “low” with entrenched positions
– A third offers a more optimistic view, suggesting a deal might be “imminent”
The more pessimistic views seem better supported by specific developments and expert quotes.
## Final Calculation
Given the short timeframe (July 24-31), I estimate:
– Base probability: 15% (reflecting historical difficulty of reaching agreements)
– Adjusting for current negotiations progress: +10% (some flexibility shown)
– Adjusting for obstacles and timeframe: -5% (communication issues, military operations)
– Adjusting for uncertainty in key assumptions: -5% (my key assumptions skew negative)
This gives a final probability of 15% that a ceasefire will be declared between Israel and Hamas by July 31, 2025. This reflects the significant obstacles, short timeframe, and continued military operations, while acknowledging that diplomatic efforts are ongoing and surprises can occur.
Probability: 15%
The extracted probability is: 15%
________________________
Anthropic Binary response:
# Reasoning Rationale
## Question Analysis
I need to forecast whether a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas will be declared in July 2025. Today is July 23, 2025, which means I have 8 remaining days in July (July 24-31) for this event to occur. This is a binary political event that depends on negotiations between warring parties.
## Key Information Summary
From the research assistants’ reports, here’s what we know about the current situation:
1. **Negotiation Status**:
– Talks are ongoing with U.S., Qatari, and Egyptian mediation
– A 60-day ceasefire framework is being proposed
– There are disagreements on key issues like Israeli troop presence in southern Gaza
– Hamas negotiators reportedly having difficulty communicating with Gaza leadership
2. **Recent Developments**:
– Israel submitted updated withdrawal maps (seen as more flexible)
– U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff is pushing for a deal in Europe
– Israel expanded military operations in central Gaza (Deir el Balah)
– 25+ countries have issued statements calling for an end to the war
3. **Key Obstacles**:
– Israel insists on maintaining troops in southern Gaza (Hamas opposes)
– Netanyahu faces political pressure from hardline coalition allies
– Communication issues between Hamas negotiators and Gaza leadership
– Ongoing military operations
4. **Sentiment**:
– U.S. administration is “cautiously optimistic”
– Some mediators express increased optimism following resolution of key issues
– Others warn “window for a deal is closing” with no breakthroughs expected before July 31
– Speculation about an agreement “within days” but no concrete timeline
## Base Rates
Looking at historical ceasefire patterns in this conflict:
– Previous ceasefires have been achieved but often collapsed quickly (e.g., November 2023, January 2025)
– Negotiations typically take weeks or months to reach agreement
– Deals often come after periods of intense international pressure
– Netanyahu has reportedly rejected previous ceasefire opportunities
## Timeline Analysis
With only 8 days remaining in July, the timeline is extremely tight. For a ceasefire to be declared:
1. Hamas would need to respond to Israel’s updated proposal
2. Both sides would need to resolve significant disagreements
3. Details would need to be finalized
4. A formal announcement would need to be made
## Key Assumptions and Uncertainties
1. **Communication Barriers** (80% confidence): Hamas negotiators’ inability to reach Gaza leadership is a significant barrier. If this issue persists, a deal is highly unlikely within 8 days.
2. **Political Will** (70% confidence): Netanyahu has internal political incentives to continue the conflict, and Hamas fears appearing weak by conceding. Both factors reduce the likelihood of a deal.
3. **Military Operations** (85% confidence): Ongoing and expanding military operations suggest Israel is not expecting an imminent ceasefire.
4. **U.S. Pressure Effectiveness** (60% confidence): While the U.S. is pushing for a deal, its ability to compel both sides to agreement within days is questionable.
## Probability Calculation
Given the tight timeline, significant obstacles, and historical patterns:
– In a normal month-long timeframe: ~30% chance
– With only 8 days remaining: significantly lower
– Given communication issues and military escalation: further reduced
– Considering international pressure and ongoing mediation: slight positive factor
Taking all these factors into account, particularly the short timeframe, significant obstacles, and historical difficulty in reaching agreements in this conflict, I assess the probability as quite low.
## Adjusting for Overconfidence
The question specifically warns about being overconfident, particularly for unlikely events. While my analysis points to a very low probability, I should avoid being overly extreme in my assessment given the inherent uncertainty in predicting political negotiations.
Probability: 15%
The extracted probability is: 15%
Gemini Binary response:
**Reasoning Rationale:**
To forecast the probability of a ceasefire being declared between Israel and Hamas in July 2025, I have carefully considered the provided background information, the summaries from the research assistants, and the remaining timeframe (July 23 to July 31, 2025 – 8 days).
1. **Short Timeframe and High Stakes:** The most immediate and critical factor is the extremely limited time remaining in July. Declaring a ceasefire in a conflict of this complexity, with deep-seated demands and a history of failed negotiations, typically requires extensive diplomatic efforts and significant concessions. Eight days is a very narrow window for such an outcome.
2. **Persistent Fundamental Disagreements:** The core sticking points in negotiations remain unresolved. Hamas continues to demand a permanent ceasefire and a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, while Israel refuses to end the war without the disarmament and loss of governance of Hamas. Despite some reports of Israeli flexibility on troop redeployment maps, these tactical shifts do not address Hamas’s fundamental demand for an end to the war or Israel’s core objective of dismantling Hamas. The most detailed analyses from the research assistants (RA2, Grok) emphasize that these entrenched positions are the primary impediment to a deal.
3. **Hamas Communication Bottleneck:** A significant logistical obstacle highlighted by multiple sources (RA1, RA2, Grok) is the difficulty for Hamas negotiators in Doha to communicate directly with their leadership in Gaza. This breakdown in communication creates a major bottleneck for rapid decision-making and approval of any proposed agreement, making a swift declaration highly improbable.
4. **Ongoing Military Operations:** Contradicting the notion of an imminent ceasefire, Israel has recently expanded its military operations in central Gaza (Deir el Balah) as of July 22 (RA2, RA3). Active escalation of hostilities is a strong negative indicator for a ceasefire declaration within days.
5. **Polymarket Signals:** The prediction market data for ceasefire declarations by July 15 and July 22, 2025 (RA1), indicates that these deadlines passed without a resolution. This historical precedent for non-declaration on specific dates further suggests the low likelihood of a rapid breakthrough.
6. **Conflicting Signals and Over-optimism Bias:** While some research indicates “optimism” from mediators (RA1, RA3) and speculation of a deal “within days” (RA3), this often refers to ongoing discussions rather than an imminent breakthrough on core issues. Other, more grounded analyses (RA2, Grok) explicitly state that optimism is “fading” and the “window for a deal is closing” due to the persistent deadlock and lack of political will. Given the advice to compensate for overconfidence and the historical tendency for such questions to resolve negatively, I lean towards the more cautious and detailed assessments of the obstacles.
**Crucial Assumptions and Their Failure:**
1. **Assumption: At least one party will make significant, fundamental concessions on their core demands (e.g., Hamas dropping its demand for a permanent ceasefire, or Israel agreeing to a full withdrawal without Hamas’s disarmament) within the next 8 days.**
* **Probability of Failure:** High (estimated 80-90%). Both sides have demonstrated an unwillingness to compromise on these existential demands throughout the conflict, and a sudden reversal in such a short timeframe is highly improbable, especially given domestic political pressures and ongoing military actions. If this assumption fails, a ceasefire declaration is virtually impossible.
2. **Assumption: Hamas’s internal communication issues will be rapidly resolved, allowing its Gaza leadership to swiftly approve a complex deal.**
* **Probability of Failure:** Moderate to High (estimated 60-70%). This is a significant logistical hurdle. Even if political will were to suddenly align, the practical challenges of securing internal Hamas approval within 8 days are substantial. If this assumption fails, a declared ceasefire is highly unlikely.
Given the confluence of a very short timeframe, deeply entrenched and unresolved core disagreements, a critical communication breakdown for one party, and ongoing military operations, the probability of a ceasefire being formally declared by July 31, 2025, is very low.
Probability: 7%
The extracted probability is: 7%
All predictions: [7, 15, 15, 15]
Filtered predictions: [15, 15]
Median reasoning:
# Reasoning on Israel-Hamas Ceasefire by July 2025
I need to forecast whether a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas will be declared in the remaining days of July 2025 (July 23-31). This is an “Other Binary Outcome Event” requiring careful analysis of current diplomatic efforts and obstacles.
## Current Situation Analysis
Multiple research assistants provide information about ongoing negotiations as of July 23, 2025:
1. **Negotiation Status**:
– A 60-day ceasefire framework is being discussed with U.S., Qatari, and Egyptian mediation
– Israel has proposed updated maps for troop withdrawal
– Hamas has not formally responded to the latest proposal
– Communication issues between Hamas negotiators and Gaza leadership are slowing talks
2. **Key Obstacles**:
– Israel wants to maintain troops in southern Gaza; Hamas rejects this
– Netanyahu faces political pressure from hardline coalition members
– Military operations continue in Gaza (particularly Deir el-Balah)
– Humanitarian crisis is worsening
3. **Recent Developments**:
– U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff is in Europe pushing for a deal
– International pressure is mounting (25-27 countries issued statements)
– Israel expanded military operations in central Gaza on July 22-23
## Timeline Analysis
With the resolution date of August 1, I only have the period from July 24-31 (8 days) to consider. The ceasefire must be declared within this timeframe to resolve positively.
## Base Rate Considerations
I need to consider the base rate of similar ceasefire declarations:
– Previous ceasefires (November 2023, January 2025) have occurred but were temporary
– Ceasefire negotiations typically take weeks or months to finalize
– Last-minute breakthroughs can occur under sufficient pressure
## Assessing Key Assumptions
1. **Assumption: Hamas will respond to Israel’s updated proposal within days**
– Probability of incorrectness: 60%
– Communication issues with Gaza leadership and Hamas’s historical reluctance suggest delays
2. **Assumption: Netanyahu is willing to make necessary concessions for a deal**
– Probability of incorrectness: 65%
– Historical evidence suggests Netanyahu has political incentives to prolong conflict
3. **Assumption: Military escalation won’t derail talks**
– Probability of incorrectness: 70%
– Recent operations in Deir el-Balah indicate continued military focus
## Sources of Optimism
1. Increased international pressure
2. U.S. diplomatic push
3. Humanitarian crisis creating urgency
4. Israel has shown some flexibility on troop deployment
## Sources of Pessimism
1. Ongoing military operations suggest Israel isn’t prioritizing a ceasefire
2. Communication issues with Hamas leadership
3. Fundamental disagreements on permanent ceasefire and troop presence
4. Short timeframe (8 days) limits opportunity for breakthrough
## Integrating Expert Views
The research assistants provide mixed perspectives:
– One suggests ongoing efforts but significant obstacles
– Another describes likelihood as “low” with entrenched positions
– A third offers a more optimistic view, suggesting a deal might be “imminent”
The more pessimistic views seem better supported by specific developments and expert quotes.
## Final Calculation
Given the short timeframe (July 24-31), I estimate:
– Base probability: 15% (reflecting historical difficulty of reaching agreements)
– Adjusting for current negotiations progress: +10% (some flexibility shown)
– Adjusting for obstacles and timeframe: -5% (communication issues, military operations)
– Adjusting for uncertainty in key assumptions: -5% (my key assumptions skew negative)
This gives a final probability of 15% that a ceasefire will be declared between Israel and Hamas by July 31, 2025. This reflects the significant obstacles, short timeframe, and continued military operations, while acknowledging that diplomatic efforts are ongoing and surprises can occur.
Probability: 15%
=== Forecast Result ===
{
“probability_yes”: 0.15,
“probability_yes_per_category”: null,
“continuous_cdf”: null
}
=== Reasoning ===
# Reasoning on Israel-Hamas Ceasefire by July 2025
I need to forecast whether a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas will be declared in the remaining days of July 2025 (July 23-31). This is an “Other Binary Outcome Event” requiring careful analysis of current diplomatic efforts and obstacles.
## Current Situation Analysis
Multiple research assistants provide information about ongoing negotiations as of July 23, 2025:
1. **Negotiation Status**:
– A 60-day ceasefire framework is being discussed with U.S., Qatari, and Egyptian mediation
– Israel has proposed updated maps for troop withdrawal
– Hamas has not formally responded to the latest proposal
– Communication issues between Hamas negotiators and Gaza leadership are slowing talks
2. **Key Obstacles**:
– Israel wants to maintain troops in southern Gaza; Hamas rejects this
– Netanyahu faces political pressure from hardline coalition members
– Military operations continue in Gaza (particularly Deir el-Balah)
– Humanitarian crisis is worsening
3. **Recent Developments**:
– U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff is in Europe pushing for a deal
– International pressure is mounting (25-27 countries issued statements)
– Israel expanded military operations in central Gaza on July 22-23
## Timeline Analysis
With the resolution date of August 1, I only have the period from July 24-31 (8 days) to consider. The ceasefire must be declared within this timeframe to resolve positively.
## Base Rate Considerations
I need to consider the base rate of similar ceasefire declarations:
– Previous ceasefires (November 2023, January 2025) have occurred but were temporary
– Ceasefire negotiations typically take weeks or months to finalize
– Last-minute breakthroughs can occur under sufficient pressure
## Assessing Key Assumptions
1. **Assumption: Hamas will respond to Israel’s updated proposal within days**
– Probability of incorrectness: 60%
– Communication issues with Gaza leadership and Hamas’s historical reluctance suggest delays
2. **Assumption: Netanyahu is willing to make necessary concessions for a deal**
– Probability of incorrectness: 65%
– Historical evidence suggests Netanyahu has political incentives to prolong conflict
3. **Assumption: Military escalation won’t derail talks**
– Probability of incorrectness: 70%
– Recent operations in Deir el-Balah indicate continued military focus
## Sources of Optimism
1. Increased international pressure
2. U.S. diplomatic push
3. Humanitarian crisis creating urgency
4. Israel has shown some flexibility on troop deployment
## Sources of Pessimism
1. Ongoing military operations suggest Israel isn’t prioritizing a ceasefire
2. Communication issues with Hamas leadership
3. Fundamental disagreements on permanent ceasefire and troop presence
4. Short timeframe (8 days) limits opportunity for breakthrough
## Integrating Expert Views
The research assistants provide mixed perspectives:
– One suggests ongoing efforts but significant obstacles
– Another describes likelihood as “low” with entrenched positions
– A third offers a more optimistic view, suggesting a deal might be “imminent”
The more pessimistic views seem better supported by specific developments and expert quotes.
## Final Calculation
Given the short timeframe (July 24-31), I estimate:
– Base probability: 15% (reflecting historical difficulty of reaching agreements)
– Adjusting for current negotiations progress: +10% (some flexibility shown)
– Adjusting for obstacles and timeframe: -5% (communication issues, military operations)
– Adjusting for uncertainty in key assumptions: -5% (my key assumptions skew negative)
This gives a final probability of 15% that a ceasefire will be declared between Israel and Hamas by July 31, 2025. This reflects the significant obstacles, short timeframe, and continued military operations, while acknowledging that diplomatic efforts are ongoing and surprises can occur.
Probability: 15%
Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy ’s bots —>
Source: Gaza Monitor https://acleddata.com/gaza-monitor/
