How many conflict deaths will there be in Sudan in 2025? In this question, Jeremy’s Multi-AI Oracle is a side competitor with the machine forecasting bots of the VIEWS competition.
Model value:
* Less than 1000: 1%
* Between 1000 and 3000: 12%
* Between 3000 and 5000: 18%
* Between 5000 and 8000: 29%
* Between 8000 and 12000: 23%
* More than 12000: 17%
Obtaining outside newsfeed. News from various sources: Based on the most recent news articles, here’s a summary of the current situation in Sudan:
The situation in Sudan has reached critical levels, with the UN declaring it the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. Recent reports indicate that 8 civilians were killed and 4 others were injured in artillery shelling by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Omdurman, the twin city of Khartoum, highlighting the ongoing violence.
The scale of the crisis is staggering: over 30 million people need humanitarian assistance, including 16 million children. The conflict, which began in April 2023 between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary RSF, has led to widespread displacement, food insecurity, and infrastructure destruction. The situation is particularly dire in Khartoum, where residents report unbearable conditions including sewage problems and the stench of death.
Adding to the humanitarian concerns, UNICEF has warned about widespread sexual violence, with an estimated 12.1 million women and girls at risk. The country is also facing a severe cholera outbreak in the White Nile State, with nearly 100 deaths reported in just two weeks. Recent political developments include the RSF signing a transitional constitution, potentially moving toward establishing a parallel government, which could further complicate the path to peace.
Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“The ongoing conflict in Sudan has escalated into what the UN describes as the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, with staggering numbers of people affected. Reports indicate that violence persists, exemplified by recent artillery shelling by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Omdurman, resulting in civilian casualties. The conflict, which erupted in April 2023 between the Sudanese army and the RSF, has caused severe displacement and infrastructure damage, severely impacting living conditions, particularly in Khartoum. Amid widespread food insecurity and community distress, UNICEF has highlighted the profound risk of sexual violence affecting millions of women and girls. Additionally, the country is grappling with a severe cholera outbreak that has caused significant casualties. Politically, tensions may rise as the RSF has signed a transitional constitution, suggesting potential moves toward establishing a parallel government, which could further complicate prospects for peace. The situation remains highly critical, with urgent calls for humanitarian intervention.”
Fact-checking news summary: Here are specific facts from the summary with their evaluation:
1. **Fact**: The ongoing conflict in Sudan has been described by the UN as the world’s worst humanitarian crisis.
– **Correctness**: True/False (This requires external verification as claims of “the worst humanitarian crisis” need confirmation against current global crises.)
– **Importance**: Important
– **Relevance**: True
2. **Fact**: Violence persists in Sudan, with recent artillery shelling by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Omdurman resulting in civilian casualties.
– **Correctness**: True (Internally consistent.)
– **Importance**: Important
– **Relevance**: True
3. **Fact**: The conflict in Sudan erupted in April 2023 between the Sudanese army and the RSF.
– **Correctness**: True (Internally consistent, but external verification is needed for absolute confirmation.)
– **Importance**: Critical
– **Relevance**: True
4. **Fact**: The conflict has caused severe displacement and infrastructure damage, particularly impacting Khartoum.
– **Correctness**: True (Internally consistent.)
– **Importance**: Important
– **Relevance**: True
5. **Fact**: There is widespread food insecurity and community distress in Sudan.
– **Correctness**: True (Internally consistent.)
– **Importance**: Important
– **Relevance**: True
6. **Fact**: UNICEF has highlighted a profound risk of sexual violence affecting millions of women and girls in Sudan.
– **Correctness**: True (Internally consistent.)
– **Importance**: Important
– **Relevance**: True
7. **Fact**: Sudan is grappling with a severe cholera outbreak that has caused significant casualties.
– **Correctness**: True/False (This would require external validation against health reports and data.)
– **Importance**: Important
– **Relevance**: True
8. **Fact**: Political tensions may rise as the RSF has signed a transitional constitution.
– **Correctness**: True/False (Requires external validation.)
– **Importance**: Important
– **Relevance**: True
9. **Fact**: The RSF’s signing of a transitional constitution suggests potential moves toward establishing a parallel government.
– **Correctness**: True/False (Requires external validation.)
– **Importance**: Important
– **Relevance**: True
10. **Fact**: There are urgent calls for humanitarian intervention in Sudan.
– **Correctness**: True (Internally consistent; typically coincides with such crises.)
– **Importance**: Important
– **Relevance**: True
Summary statement for the original question:
No specific prediction or data regarding the number of conflict deaths in Sudan in 2025 is mentioned in the summary, making it impossible to directly answer the original question based on the provided facts.
Fact-checked summary:
Although there is no specific prediction regarding the number of conflict deaths in Sudan in 2025, the country is currently experiencing significant turmoil and humanitarian issues. The conflict, which erupted in April 2023 between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has led to ongoing violence, including recent artillery shelling in Omdurman resulting in civilian casualties. This violence has caused severe displacement and damage, particularly affecting Khartoum, and has created widespread food insecurity and community distress. The United Nations has described the situation as a critical humanitarian crisis, and UNICEF has warned of the risk of sexual violence affecting millions of women and girls. Additionally, there are urgent calls for humanitarian intervention to address these pressing issues. These factors contribute to the uncertainty and severity of the situation in Sudan, making future projections difficult.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.05, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.15, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.35, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.29, “More than 12000”: 0.15] – confidence: 4)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.35, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.3, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.2, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.1, “More than 12000”: 0.04] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.05, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.1, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.15, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.25, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.2, “More than 12000”: 0.25] – confidence: 5)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 5
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* Less than 1000: 1%
* Between 1000 and 3000: 12%
* Between 3000 and 5000: 18%
* Between 5000 and 8000: 29%
* Between 8000 and 12000: 23%
* More than 12000: 17%
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The ongoing conflict in Sudan between the army and RSF, which began in April 2023, continues to significantly impact the country’s stability with high levels of violence and a critical humanitarian crisis. The persistent urban warfare, particularly around Khartoum and Omdurman, and extensive artillery use suggest a sustained risk of high casualty rates through 2025. Historical parallels indicate a correlation between ongoing conflict and increased death tolls, but exact predictions remain unreliable due to the dynamic nature of warfare and reporting challenges. Despite indications of continued violence, factors such as potential peace agreements, international intervention, or shifts in conflict tactics could influence the casualty outcomes, underscoring the uncertainty surrounding future developments.
Runtime: 115 seconds. for both questions on this page.
Background on VIEWS: Near the end of 2024, the latest forecasting competition of the Violence and Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS) was launched. On Dec. 4, 2024, during a telecon, a group of machine forecasting experts involved in VIEWS observed Jeremy’s demonstration of his Multi-AI Oracle. Although it was too late for Jeremy to sign up as a VIEWS competitor, they urged him to run a side competition for everyone’s benefit. Jeremy chose their Sudan conflict deaths question.
Interactive VIEWS dashboard here.
Background on the Sudan conflict, as evaluated by the team of Jeremy Lichtman and Carolyn Meinel:
(1) The importance of the Sahel, a region in Africa that includes Sudan:
Why the Sahel Actually Matters (Possibly To You, Too)
(2) April 29, 2024: Today, a Russian diplomat is negotiating gold mining with the Sudanese Minister of Minerals.
(3) June 3, 2024: Today the African Union Announced Plans to Mediate in Sudan’s Civil War.
Sept. 11, 2024 Over 100K starvation deaths 96% likely in Sudan by 1 Jan 2025
Carolyn has checked Sudan’s news sites below to ensure that they are still in operation. However, given the widespread violence in Sudan, any of these could go offline without warning.
https://www.alnilin.com/
https://www.alrakoba.net/
https://www.altaghyeer.info/ar/
https://www.altaghyeer.info/en/
https://www.alttahrer.com/
https://www.alzaeemsd.com/
https://www.assayha.net
https://www.cover-sd.com/
https://kushnews.net/
https://rakobanews.com
https://www.sudanakhbar.com/
https://sudanjem.com/
https://suna-sd.net/en
https://sudantimes.net/
https://www.sudantribune.net/
https://www.sudantribune.com/
https://sudaneseonline.com/
https://www.sudanile.com/
https://sudanow-magazine.net/
https://www.sudaress.com/
https://www.tagpress.net/
Links to all Multi-AI forecasts here.
Below, a screenshot from VIEWS forecasting conflict fatalities in Sudan through January 2028. Below that, satellite images of the devastation in Sudan.
How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
Model value:
* less than 172: 42%
* between 172 and 205: 37%
* between 206 and 240: 16%
* more than 240: 5%
Obtaining outside newsfeed. News from various sources: Based on the provided news articles, here’s a summary of the key points about Canada’s upcoming election:
Most Recent Developments (Past Few Days):
The political landscape in Canada appears to be in flux, with recent polling showing a narrowing gap between the Liberals and Conservatives. According to 338Canada projections, the Liberals are now projected to win the most seats in the next federal election, marking a significant shift from previous polling that had shown Conservative dominance. Former Bank of England governor Mark Carney has emerged as a key figure in Canadian politics, though he faces criticism for being potentially out of touch with ordinary Canadians due to his elite banking background.
Key Political Context:
The upcoming election is being shaped by several major factors:
– The cost of living crisis has become a primary concern for voters, overshadowing other issues like climate change
– There’s growing tension regarding Canada-US relations, particularly with the prospect of Donald Trump potentially returning to power
– Climate policy remains contentious, with debate over the carbon tax and alternative Conservative climate proposals
– Local electoral races are seeing some upheaval, with several Conservative candidates dropping out in key ridings
Electoral Dynamics:
While the Conservatives had been leading in ballot support, recent polls suggest a Liberal resurgence. The political landscape remains volatile, with both major parties jockeying for position as Canada approaches its next federal election. Regional races, particularly in Ontario, could prove crucial to the final outcome.
Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“Recent developments in Canadian politics indicate a shifting landscape, with polls suggesting a narrower gap between the Liberal and Conservative parties. The latest projections from 338Canada show the Liberals potentially winning the most seats in the upcoming federal election, a change from earlier forecasts favoring the Conservatives. Several factors, including the cost of living crisis, Canada-US relations, and contentious climate policies, are shaping the election. Former Bank of England governor Mark Carney has become a notable figure in Canadian politics, though his background might distance him from average voters. Meanwhile, the political dynamics remain fluid, with key regional races, especially in Ontario, likely influencing the election’s overall outcome.”
Fact-checking news summary: Below are the specific facts extracted from the summary, along with their evaluations:
1. **Fact:** Recent developments in Canadian politics indicate a shifting landscape with polls suggesting a narrower gap between the Liberal and Conservative parties.
– **Correctness:** True — Political landscapes often shift, and polls can show varying results. Polls indicating a narrower gap between major parties is plausible.
– **Importance to Resolution:** Important — Knowing the gap between parties helps estimate election outcomes.
– **Relevance:** True — This directly influences seat predictions for the Conservative Party.
2. **Fact:** The latest projections from 338Canada show the Liberals potentially winning the most seats in the upcoming federal election.
– **Correctness:** Varies over time — Projections on election outcomes can change frequently; check the date of the latest projection.
– **Importance to Resolution:** Critical — This directly affects the prediction of seat outcomes for the Conservative Party.
– **Relevance:** True — Directly related to the resolution of the question.
3. **Fact:** Earlier forecasts favored the Conservatives to win the most seats.
– **Correctness:** Varies over time — Historical projections could have varied; earlier forecasts should be validated with historical data.
– **Importance to Resolution:** Important — Changing forecasts show potential swings in election outcomes.
– **Relevance:** True — Helps understand trend shifts that affect current predictions.
4. **Fact:** Several factors are shaping the election, including the cost of living crisis, Canada-US relations, and contentious climate policies.
– **Correctness:** True — These are common influential factors in elections.
– **Importance to Resolution:** Important — These factors can sway voter preferences, affecting outcomes.
– **Relevance:** True — They influence voters’ decisions and party performance, affecting seat counts.
5. **Fact:** Former Bank of England governor Mark Carney has become a notable figure in Canadian politics.
– **Correctness:** True — Mark Carney has become active in Liberal circles and Canadian politics.
– **Importance to Resolution:** Lesser importance — While notable, Carney’s role may not specifically affect the Conservative Party’s seat count.
– **Relevance:** False — This fact is more about individual influence than direct outcomes.
6. **Fact:** His background might distance him from average voters.
– **Correctness:** Subjective — His elite background might or might not resonate with voters; this is speculative.
– **Importance to Resolution:** Unimportant — Whether Mark Carney’s background distances him affects voter perceptions but not directly specific seat predictions.
– **Relevance:** False — Does not directly impact the seat count for the Conservative Party.
7. **Fact:** The political dynamics remain fluid, with key regional races, especially in Ontario, likely influencing the election’s overall outcome.
– **Correctness:** True — Elections can change based on regional races, and Ontario is a significant battleground.
– **Importance to Resolution:** Important — Regional outcomes are critical to overall seat distributions.
– **Relevance:** True — Ontario’s outcomes significantly impact national seat projections including those of the Conservative Party.
Fact-checked summary:
The upcoming Canadian federal parliamentary election presents an uncertain outcome, influenced by a narrowing gap between the Liberal and Conservative parties as suggested by recent polls, which is a critical factor in estimating the number of seats each party may win. Important national issues shaping voter preferences include the cost of living crisis, Canada-US relations, and climate policies. These factors are relevant to seat predictions, as they can impact voter decisions and party performance. Furthermore, the fluid political dynamics and key regional races, especially in the pivotal area of Ontario, will play a crucial role in determining the overall seat distribution, significantly affecting the Conservative Party’s seat projections.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.45, “between 172 and 205”: 0.35, “between 206 and 240”: 0.15, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 4)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.4, “between 172 and 205”: 0.4, “between 206 and 240”: 0.15, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 5)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.2, “between 172 and 205”: 0.35, “between 206 and 240”: 0.3, “more than 240”: 0.15] – confidence: 5)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 5
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* less than 172: 42%
* between 172 and 205: 37%
* between 206 and 240: 16%
* more than 240: 5%
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The AI analyses focus on the upcoming Canadian federal elections and the performance of the Conservative Party in the context of recent polling trends, historical performances, and the current political issues. There is a consensus that the gap between the Conservative and Liberal parties is narrowing, indicating a competitive race. Factors influencing voter preferences include the cost of living crisis, climate policies, and US-Canada relations. Ontario is highlighted as a critical battleground due to its significant influence on seat distribution. The predictions range from the Conservative Party winning between 172 to 240 seats, showing some variations, but all agree on the uncertainty of outcomes due to potential shifts in public opinion, polling errors, unexpected events, and Canada’s first-past-the-post electoral system. These factors underscore the volatility and unpredictability of the election outcomes, emphasizing that even slight changes can lead to major shifts in seat counts.
All Past Multi-AI Oracle Forecasts
Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports
Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
One of the VIEWS Forecasting Pages for Sudan
The chart shows predictions of conflict fatalities in Sudan through January 2028.
Tracking the toll of Sudan’s forgotten war from afar
Satellite image below is from the Feb. 28, 2025 issue of Science, https://www.science.org/content/article/how-many-have-died-sudan-s-civil-war-satellite-images-and-models-offer-clues
