Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman: US military strike against Venezuela? Forecast of Nov. 6, 2025

Will the US officially announce completion of any military strike against Venezuela before the end of 2025?

Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts today: 8%

14–18 minutes read

Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: United States Venezuela military strike
News from various sources:

The U.S. has intensified military operations targeting drug-related activities off the coast of Venezuela and in the Caribbean. Since early September, the Trump administration has launched a series of airstrikes against suspected drug-smuggling boats, resulting in the destruction of 17 boats and at least 66 deaths. These operations mark a significant shift in American foreign policy, moving from a law enforcement approach to military action against perceived narco-terrorists.

The primary targets appear to be vessels linked to drug gangs, such as Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua. However, there is speculation that these military maneuvers might also be intended to intimidate and potentially destabilize the regime of Nicolás Maduro, who is seen as illegitimate by the U.S. government. The build-up of U.S. military forces in the region is large, with significant naval presence, including an aircraft carrier and several destroyers.

The Trump administration defends these actions as legitimate military operations, claiming to have declared a formal conflict with drug cartels and designating them as foreign terrorist organizations. However, many legal experts criticize these strikes as illegal extrajudicial killings. The lack of evidence provided by the U.S. regarding the involvement of the attacked vessels in drug trafficking adds to the controversy.

In Venezuela, particularly in the eastern coastal state of Sucre, there is fear and uncertainty about potential U.S. attacks. Residents are conflicted, recognizing both the threat of military action and the desire for regime change. There is concern about civilian casualties, as legitimate fishermen fear being mistaken for drug traffickers.
The political climate in Venezuela remains tense. Reports suggest that President Maduro might be attempting to negotiate with the U.S. to alleviate pressure, such as by offering oil concessions. However, the U.S. has publicly rejected any deals.

In summary, the U.S.’s military actions against alleged drug trafficking near Venezuela have increased regional tensions, drawing criticism and fear of escalation into direct conflict with the Maduro regime. The operations reflect a broader effort by the Trump administration to combat perceived narco-terrorism while also potentially serving a strategic goal of challenging Maduro’s hold on power.

Fact-checking news summary:
Here’s a list of specific facts from the summary, with their accuracy and relevance assessed:
1. **Fact**: The U.S. has intensified military operations targeting drug-related activities off the coast of Venezuela and in the Caribbean.
– **True/False**: True (The summary is internally consistent, but external verification needed for full accuracy).
– **Importance**: Important.
– **Relevance**: True.
2. **Fact**: Since early September, the Trump administration has launched a series of airstrikes against suspected drug-smuggling boats, resulting in the destruction of 17 boats and at least 66 deaths.
– **True/False**: False (No known reports or external confirmations; requires verification for accuracy).
– **Importance**: Important.
– **Relevance**: True.
3. **Fact**: These operations mark a shift from a law enforcement approach to military action against perceived narco-terrorists.
– **True/False**: True (True in the context of the summary; indicates a policy shift).
– **Importance**: Important.
– **Relevance**: True.
4. **Fact**: The primary targets are vessels linked to drug gangs, such as Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua.
– **True/False**: True (Assuming the internal information is accurate; external verification needed).
– **Importance**: Important.
– **Relevance**: True.
5. **Fact**: There is speculation that military maneuvers might also intimidate and destabilize the Maduro regime.
– **True/False**: True (Speculative but plausible given the geopolitical context).
– **Importance**: Important.
– **Relevance**: True.
6. **Fact**: The U.S. military buildup includes an aircraft carrier and several destroyers in the region.
– **True/False**: True (Consistent with increased military presence; requires external confirmation).
– **Importance**: Important.
– **Relevance**: True.
7. **Fact**: The Trump administration claims to have declared a formal conflict with drug cartels, designating them as foreign terrorist organizations.
– **True/False**: Partially true (While there have been suggestions of such designations, requires specific verification about formal conflict declaration).
– **Importance**: Important.
– **Relevance**: True.
8. **Fact**: Many legal experts criticize these strikes as illegal extrajudicial killings.
– **True/False**: True (Consistent with potential international criticism and legal opinions).
– **Importance**: Important.
– **Relevance**: True.
9. **Fact**: The U.S. has not provided evidence regarding the involvement of vessels in drug trafficking.
– **True/False**: True (Could be a point of contention; specific details not provided in the summary).
– **Importance**: Important.
– **Relevance**: True.
10. **Fact**: In Venezuela, there is fear about potential U.S. attacks, especially in the eastern coastal state of Sucre.
– **True/False**: True (Consistent with regional concerns given the military activities).
– **Importance**: Important.
– **Relevance**: True.
11. **Fact**: The U.S. has rejected any deals with Venezuela, such as oil concessions.
– **True/False**: True (Matches public statements from the U.S. rejecting negotiations with Maduro).
– **Importance**: Important.
– **Relevance**: True.
12. **Fact**: The U.S. military actions have increased regional tensions.
– **True/False**: True (Consistent with potential political and military escalation).
– **Importance**: Critical.
– **Relevance**: True.

Overall, while many of the facts in the summary could be internally consistent, external verification would be needed for a complete assessment of their accuracy. Additionally, many of these facts are important or critical to assessing whether the U.S. will announce the completion of a military strike against Venezuela by 2025.

Fact-checked summary:
The United States has intensified military operations targeting drug-related activities in the Caribbean and off the coast of Venezuela. This marks a shift from a law enforcement approach to military action against perceived narco-terrorists, with specific focus on vessels linked to drug gangs like Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua. The increased military presence includes an aircraft carrier and several destroyers in the region, which has heightened regional tensions. The operations have led to criticism as potential illegal extrajudicial killings from legal experts, particularly due to the lack of evidence provided by the U.S. regarding the vessels’ involvement in drug trafficking. These activities may be intimidating to the Maduro regime, contributing to fears of potential U.S. attacks, particularly in Venezuela’s eastern coastal state of Sucre. Diplomatically, the U.S. has rejected deals with Venezuela, such as oil concessions, maintaining a firm stance against negotiations with the Maduro government. Given these developments, the geopolitical landscape has become more volatile, affecting any potential future announcements of military action completion.

OpenAI gives a base rate of 20%
The question difficulty is rated 7 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
Past U.S. military operations in Latin America, 0.3
Diplomatic resolutions in similar geopolitical crises, 0.4
Persistence of U.S.-Venezuela Tensions, 0.3
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
Using historical factors, assign an initial probability based on similar past U.S. military operations resolving without escalation, adjust according to current tensions. Calculations: P(Historical) = 0.2, P(Crisis) = 0.1 (due to escalated tensions), Bayesian update = P(Historical) * 0.5 + P(Crisis) * 0.5 = (0.2 * 0.5) + (0.1 * 0.5) = 0.15 (15%)
Bayesian base rate: 15%
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: reference_class
Expected time (days) until question close: 180
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate is primarily derived from U.S. military operations in Latin America. Historical outcomes show a low probability of such operations resolving quickly or by the intended deadline, often influenced by escalating tensions or diplomatic stalemates.

Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Additional data on internal U.S. military and diplomatic strategies would be valuable. Observations include regional geopolitical responses, Venezuela’s potential diplomatic shifts, and internal U.S. policy debates.

Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Current regional and international diplomatic dynamics might significantly alter outcomes. These include potential geopolitical shifts or alterations in U.S. domestic policy surrounding international military deployments and operations.

The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively: (Carolyn‘s note: The following implies that the Oracle assumed that the question was when the US woul end its attacks on Venezuela territory, not when it would begin such attacks.)
– U.S. completes current military raid operations in the Caribbean and off Venezuela’s coast. About as likely as not
– Reduction in regional tensions resulting from U.S. military presence. Unlikely
– Improvement or resolution in diplomatic tensions between U.S. and Venezuela. Unlikely

Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 4)

Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 3)

Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.1 – confidence: 6)

Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.15
Base rate: 0.2 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.02
MAPD: 0.033333333333333
Confidence: 4
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.07
Reverse Mellers: 0.24
Theory of Mind: 0.25 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.99
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>

Model value: 15%
The overarching reasoning across the AI summaries suggests a low probability of the U.S. announcing the completion of its military operations in Latin America, specifically relating to Venezuela, before the end of 2025. (Carolyn’s note: Again, use of the word “completion” inthe question confused the Oracle.) Several key factors are highlighted: the historically low success rate of U.S. operations completing on schedule in the region, the current increase in military presence indicating ongoing operations, and a firm U.S. diplomatic stance that rejects negotiations with the Venezuelan government. Additionally, escalating regional tensions and international criticism further complicate a swift resolution. However, the AIs acknowledged potential uncertainties, such as unforeseen diplomatic shifts or rapid geopolitical changes, which could result in an unexpectedly swift resolution or redefinition of ‘completion’ related to specific operations rather than the broader mission.

Runtime: 204 seconds.