How many state-based conflict deaths (total of all civilian and combat deaths, including both Ukrainian and Russian combatants) will be reported by ACLED in Ukraine in May, 2025?
Here’s what Jeremy’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts today:
* Less than 500: 1%
^ Between 500 and 1000: 3%
* Between 1000 and 1500: 7%:
* Between 1500 and 2000: 14%
* Greater than 2000: 75%
Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: ACLED Ukraine conflict deaths May 2025
Results from around the web:
{think}
Okay, let’s tackle this query. The user wants current web results related to ACLED Ukraine conflict deaths in May 2025, a summary, tables, and source URLs. First, check the search results provided.
Looking at the search results, the most recent one is from May 1, 2025 (source [4]), which covers April 12-18, 2025. It mentions 71 civilian deaths.
The next is source [2] from April 23, 2025, covering April 5-11, noting six mass fatality events.
Source [5] from March 12, 2025, covers February 22-28 with 31 civilian deaths.
Source [1] updated January 31, 2025, includes data up to January 24, 2025.
Source [3] from December 12, 2024, discusses the conflict in 2024.
Wait, the user asked for May 2025 data, but the latest in the results is up to April 18, 2025. So there’s no data for May 2025 available in the provided sources. But maybe the user is interested in the most recent available data. The May 1, 2025 source [4] is the closest, covering mid-April. The answer should note that May data isn’t available yet and present the latest figures up to April.
Now, summarizing the contents: Each source provides weekly updates on civilian casualties.
Source [4] reports 71 deaths in mid-April, [2] mentions six mass fatality events in early April, [5] 31 in late February.
Source [1] from January has details on regional advances and strikes.
Source [3] gives a broader 2024 overview with a 63% increase in battles.
For tables, create a time series with the periods covered, deaths, and changes. Since May isn’t available, include the latest periods up to April. Calculate change from previous period, mean, etc. For example, from the data given:
– Feb 22-28: 31
– Apr 5-11: six events (specific deaths not given, maybe omit or note as multiple events)
– Apr 12-18: 71
But some data points are missing, like March. The user might expect calculations, but with incomplete data, it’s challenging. Maybe present available data and note the gaps. Alternatively, focus on the available figures and compute statistics based on them.
Also, check if any sources mention cumulative totals or averages. Source [3] mentions a 63% increase in battles but not deaths. The answer should include the tables as specified, even with limited data, and clearly state any limitations.
Finally, list all the URLs used. The sources provided are [1] to [5], all from acleddata.com and reliefweb.int. Ensure each citation is correctly attributed.
As of the latest available data up to mid-April 2025, ACLED reports on Ukraine conflict deaths highlight intensifying violence, though no May 2025 figures are yet published. Below is a summary of recent trends and fatalities:
—
## **Civilian Deaths (January–April 2025)**
*Note:* March 2025 data is unavailable in the provided sources. The 5–11 April period saw **six mass civilian fatality events** across five regions[2].
—
## **Key Trends**
– **Escalation in Long-Range Strikes:** Russian missile/drone strikes killed civilians in Kyiv, Lviv, and Khmelnytskyi regions, with Ukrainian forces intercepting 40+ attacks weekly[1][4].
– **Territorial Advances:** By late January 2025, Russian forces approached Pokrovsk (4 km from Dnipropetrovsk border) and seized settlements near Kupiansk[1][3].
– **2024 Context:** Battles increased by 63% compared to 2023, with Russia capturing Avdiivka in February 2024 and launching a Kharkiv offensive in May 2024[3].
—
## **Statistical Overview (January–April 2025)**
## **Sources**
1. [ACLED Ukraine Conflict Monitor] (https://acleddata.com/ukraine-conflict-monitor/)
2. [Ukraine War Situation Update: 5–11 April 2025] (https://acleddata.com/2025/04/23/ukraine-war-situation-update-5-11-april-2025/)
3. [Conflict Watchlist 2025: Ukraine] (https://acleddata.com/conflict-watchlist-2025/ukraine/)
4. [Ukraine War Situation Update: 12–18 April 2025] (https://reliefweb.int/report/ukraine/ukraine-war-situation-update-12-18-april-2025)
5. [Ukraine War Situation Update: 22–28 February 2025] (https://acleddata.com/2025/03/12/ukraine-war-situation-update-22-28-february-2025/)
Data for May 2025 was not yet published as of the latest search results (1 May 2025). ACLED typically releases updates on Wednesdays, covering the preceding week.
OpenAI gives a base rate of (Carolyn’s note: OpenAI failed to return a value. Instead, see the Bayesian base rate below.)
The question difficulty is rated 7 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include: 0.30.40.3
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
To calculate the Bayesian probability, the historical factors weights are computed with the current trend of escalation in Ukraine (0.3), previous weeks’ casualties showing an increase (0.4), and current conflict intensity (0.3). Given these factors and their weights, we aggregate them and adjust for prior probabilities of casualties surpassing specific thresholds. Let P(A) be the prior probability of 1000+ deaths, and factors suggest an increase of approximately 20%, leading to an updated probability of 0.54.
Bayesian base rate: 0.54
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 0 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 25
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate is determined by considering the trends in reported civilian casualties from the previous months and their frequencies. Factors include the number of casualties reported in April 2025, showing an upward trend with significant mass fatality events and increasing intensity of strikes, suggesting a similar or higher casualty count could occur in May.
Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Ideal data would include exact casualty figures from all conflict regions, recent changes in military strategies, and real-time reporting on conflict developments in May 2025.
Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Potential peace negotiations or effective military de-escalation could significantly reduce casualty numbers. Conversely, unexpected increases in conflict regions or newly opened fronts could raise casualties beyond expectations.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Continued escalation of the conflict in Ukraine through May 2025 (highly likely)
– Sustained increase in frequency of military engagements resulting in civilian casualties (likely)
– Lack of effective ceasefire or peace agreements (very likely) – Ongoing air and missile strikes on populated areas (likely)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“Less than 500”: 0.15, “Between 500 and 1000”: 0.25, “Between 1000 and 1500”: 0.35, “Between 1500 and 2000”: 0.15, “Greater than 2000”: 0.1] – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“Less than 500”: 0.05, “Between 500 and 1000”: 0.15, “Between 1000 and 1500”: 0.3, “Between 1500 and 2000”: 0.3, “Greater than 2000”: 0.2] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“Less than 500”: 0.05, “Between 500 and 1000”: 0.1, “Between 1000 and 1500”: 0.15, “Between 1500 and 2000”: 0.35, “Greater than 2000”: 0.35] – confidence: 7)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
MAPD: Avg: 0.12, Max: 0.16666666666667
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* Less than 500: 0.05%
* Between 500 and 1000: 15%
* Between 1000 and 1500: 30%
* Between 1500 and 2000: 30%
* Greater than 2000: 20%
The AIs collectively reason that the escalating violence in Ukraine, as evidenced by recent ACLED data, is leading to a significant increase in casualties, with figures from April 2025 indicating a potential rise in the death toll for May due to the sustained intensity of the conflict and lack of ceasefires. They note that the trend of more intense battles and long-range strikes points to a higher fatality rate, possibly between 1000-1500 monthly deaths. However, they also acknowledge that this prediction could be affected by several factors, such as potential peace negotiations, changes in military strategies, or improved defensive measures, which could result in fewer casualties or affect the accuracy of the reported figures. Additionally, the reliability of data and unexpected geopolitical developments could impact these projections.
Runtime: 69 seconds.
Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy ’s bots —>
Jeremy’s Ukraine forecasts are a side experiment with the VIEWS competition. Its Ukraine dashboard below.
