How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election? Here’s what Jeremy‘s new version of his Multi-AI Oracle says.
Obtaining outside data. Checking internet sources, using keywords: Conservative Party Canada election. Results from around the web:
Okay, let me see. The user wants information on the Canada Conservative Party election, based on current web results. The search results provided include news articles and polls from recent dates, mostly around April 2025. Let’s start by going through each source to extract relevant info about the Conservative Party’s election campaign, platform, and polling data.
First, source [1] from CBC has a detailed comparison of party platforms. The Conservatives plan to repeal carbon pricing and boost tax credits for clean energy. They’re proposing tax cuts, like lowering the lowest income tax bracket and removing GST on new homes under $1.3 million. They also aim to cut public services and defund the CBC.
Sources [3], [4], [6], and [9] discuss polling data. The Conservatives are trailing the Liberals but have narrowed the gap. Innovative Research poll shows them leading at 38% vs Liberals’ 37%, while others like Nanos and Leger show a larger lead for Liberals. There’s a gender split, with men more likely to support Conservatives.
Source [7] mentions the Conservatives dropping two candidates, which might indicate internal issues. Source [9] from CSIS talks about the election being a toss-up, with the Conservatives focusing on domestic issues but needing to pivot due to Trump’s tariff threats.
I need to organize this info into sections: platform, polling trends, regional variations, leadership perception, and candidate issues. The user also asked for tables, so I should include a polling data table summarizing the different polls and their numbers. Also, note the gender split in support, maybe as another table.
I need to ensure all data is up-to-date, using the latest dates from the sources. Check for any discrepancies in the polls and clarify. Make sure to cite each source properly after each relevant point. Avoid any personal analysis, just present the facts from the sources. Time series data might not be available here, so if not, skip that part. Instead, focus on current polling figures and policy positions.
Here’s a summary of current information on the Canada Conservative Party’s 2025 election campaign, based on recent web results:
### Party Platform Highlights
**Economic Policies**
– Tax cuts including reducing lowest income bracket rate from 15% → 12.75% [1]
– $5K annual TFSA increase (for Canadian company investments) [1]
– GST removal on new homes <$1.3M [1]
– Senior tax exemptions up to $34K earnings under $42K income [1]
**Energy/Environment**
– Full repeal of carbon pricing programs [1]
– Support for east-west pipelines and LNG Quebec project [1]
**Government Reform**
– 20% public service workforce reduction [1]
– CBC defunding (while maintaining Radio-Canada) [1]
—
### Current Polling Landscape (April 2025)
Key trends:
– First lead shown in Innovative poll (+1%) after trailing by 9+ points in March [3]
– Significant gender gap: 44% men vs. 33% women support Conservatives in BC [4]
### Regional Dynamics
**Battlegrounds**
– **Ontario**: Tied 41-41 in Innovative poll vs. 10-point Liberal lead in Leger [3][9]
– **Quebec**: Liberals lead shrinking (39% → 35%) since canceled TVA debate [6][9]
– **West**: Conservatives dominate prairies but struggle in Metro Vancouver [9]
—
### Leadership Perception
Pierre Poilievre faces:
– 61% unfavorable rating among women [6]
– Perception as “aggressive/brash” vs. Carney’s “calm technocrat” image [4][9]
– Strategic pivot from anti-Trudeau messaging to economic nationalism (“Canada First”)[9]
—
### Campaign Challenges
– **Candidate issues**: Two candidates dropped in 24 hours (reasons undisclosed)[7]
– **Trump factor**: 43% of voters prioritize US relations – key vulnerability given Poilievre’s lack of diplomatic experience[9]
No prediction market data found in provided sources. Recent polls suggest outcome remains fluid, with Liberal vote efficiency potentially translating narrow leads into seat advantages[3][6].
OpenAI gives a base rate of probability of Conservatives winning most seats (Carolyn’s note the base rate is discussed below, but no percentages given because of poor data. However, IMHO, it is common for the party in power to lose seats.)
The question difficulty is rated 7 (0 to 10)
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 210
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate is derived from the current polling landscape where the Conservatives are trailing slightly behind the Liberals in most polls, with essential variations across regions like Ontario and Quebec. Gender dynamics, leadership perception, and recent strategic pivots by the Conservative Party are factored into estimating their likelihood of success.
Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Additional information from voter intention time series, more granular regional breakdowns, further examination of voter sentiment trends, and additional inside political analysis would enhance forecast quality.
Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
The outcome can diverge from base rate due to dynamic campaign developments, effectiveness in addressing candidate issues, shifting voter sentiments in response to global and national events, and possible changes in voter turnout patterns.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
Conservative Party wins the most seats in the Canadian federal election. Possible – Conservatives succeed in maintaining or growing their support in key battleground provinces like Ontario and Quebec. Somewhat Likely – The Conservative Party effectively manages internal issues and candidate controversies. Unlikely – The Conservative Party successfully adapts and responds to external factors, such as US trade relations under Trump’s policies. Uncertain – Polling trends continue to favor Conservatives as election day approaches. Somewhat Unlikely
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.45, “between 172 and 205”: 0.35, “between 206 and 240”: 0.15, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.5, “between 172 and 205”: 0.3, “between 206 and 240”: 0.15, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 5)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.3, “between 172 and 205”: 0.35, “between 206 and 240”: 0.25, “more than 240”: 0.1] – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 5
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* less than 172: 45%
* between 172 and 205: 35%
* between 206 and 240: 15%
* more than 240: 5%
The predictions regarding the Conservative Party’s electoral performance suggest overall challenges due to trailing poll numbers compared to the Liberals, gender gaps in support, and regional weaknesses, especially in key areas like Quebec and urban centers. Historical voting patterns indicate that even with decent popular vote support, the efficiency of these votes in converting to seats could be problematic. Internal controversies among candidates and leadership perceptions further complicate their positioning. However, there’s an acknowledgment that polls might underestimate Conservative support, and shifts during the campaign, including effective debates and Liberal vote-splitting, could change dynamics. Externally, factors like U.S. trade policy developments and broader economic or international events could also influence voter behavior and election outcomes.
Guide to Jeremy’s Bots Reports (These don’t all apply to the current version of his bot.)
Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
