Israel/Hamas Ceasefire? Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman’s forecast, Sept. 17, 2025

Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of September 2025?

Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts 20%

Here’s how it reached this answer:

10–13 minutes read

Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: Israel Hamas ceasefire September 2025
News from various sources:

In September 2025, US President Donald Trump announced that Israel had accepted a ceasefire proposal he put forward and urged the Palestinian group Hamas to agree to the terms as well. Trump stated that everyone desires the return of hostages and an end to the ongoing conflict. He warned Hamas of potential consequences if they rejected the offer, stating that there would be no subsequent warnings.

Trump mentioned the possibility of reaching a deal on Gaza soon and indicated that all hostages would be returned, “alive or dead.” Reports indicate that Israel has publicly accepted a ceasefire plan, although this has not been officially confirmed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government. The ceasefire plan involves the release of 48 hostages by Hamas in exchange for the release of thousands of Palestinian prisoners held in Israel, alongside negotiations working towards ending the war.

Hamas acknowledged the receipt of proposals through US mediators, expressing willingness to negotiate for the release of all hostages in exchange for the cessation of the war and Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza. Egypt and Qatar are playing a mediating role in these indirect talks, with US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff involved in advancing the Israeli initiative.

This comes after Hamas initially agreed to a 60-day ceasefire proposal on August 18, but Israel had not yet responded.

The pressure for resolution is heightened by international demands to halt the war, where more than 64,000 Palestinians have reportedly died from Israeli military actions since October 2023. Additionally, the situation in Gaza is dire, with many areas facing famine conditions. The International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued arrest warrants for Israeli leaders over alleged war crimes in Gaza, and Israel faces a genocide case at the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

Fact-checking news summary:
Based on the provided summary, here is a list of specific facts, their accuracy, importance to the resolution, and relevance to the outcome:

1. **Fact**: In September 2025, US President Donald Trump announced that Israel had accepted a ceasefire proposal.
– **Accuracy**: False. As of my last information update, Donald Trump was not the US President in 2025. (Carolyn‘s note: This is a serious error, further investigation needed.)
– **Importance to Resolution**: Critical. This statement directly pertains to the ceasefire agreement.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True. Relevant to whether a ceasefire will be declared.
2. **Fact**: Trump urged Hamas to agree to the ceasefire terms and warned of potential consequences if they did not.
– **Accuracy**: Indeterminate. Requires verification in a current context.
– **Importance to Resolution**: Important. This statement influences Hamas’s potential actions.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True. Relevant to the likelihood of a ceasefire.
3. **Fact**: Reports indicate Israel has publicly accepted the ceasefire plan.
– **Accuracy**: Indeterminate, although it’s mentioned it was not officially confirmed by Netanyahu’s government.
– **Importance to Resolution**: Critical. The acceptance by Israel is key to the ceasefire agreement.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True. Relevant to whether a ceasefire will be declared.
4. **Fact**: The ceasefire plan involves the release of 48 hostages by Hamas in exchange for thousands of Palestinian prisoners.
– **Accuracy**: Indeterminate. This requires confirmation from current sources.
– **Importance to Resolution**: Important. The exchange of prisoners and hostages directly impacts the terms of the ceasefire.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True. Relevant to determining the likelihood of a ceasefire.
5. **Fact**: Hamas received proposals through US mediators and expressed willingness to negotiate.
– **Accuracy**: Indeterminate. Likely consistent with typical negotiation processes, but specific confirmation needed.
– **Importance to Resolution**: Important. Hamas’s willingness is crucial for the potential ceasefire.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True. Relevant to whether Hamas will agree to a ceasefire.
6. **Fact**: Egypt and Qatar are mediating indirectly, with US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff involved.
– **Accuracy**: Indeterminate. Requires current context confirmation.
– **Importance to Resolution**: Important. Mediators play a crucial role in facilitating agreements.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True. Relevant, as mediation influences the potential agreement.
7. **Fact**: Hamas agreed to a 60-day ceasefire proposal on August 18, but Israel had not responded.
– **Accuracy**: Indeterminate. Context and timeline accuracy unknown.
– **Importance to Resolution**: Important. Prior agreements inform current negotiations.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True. Historical context is relevant to current negotiations.
8. **Fact**: Over 64,000 Palestinians have reportedly died from Israeli military actions since October 2023.
– **Accuracy**: Indeterminate. Requires verification, as casualty figures can vary based on sources.
– **Importance to Resolution**: Important. Highlights the urgency and humanitarian need for a ceasefire.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True. Contextual relevance, impacts international pressure for peace.
9. **Fact**: Gaza is facing famine conditions.
– **Accuracy**: Possibly true. Consistent with historical humanitarian concerns but requires current verification.
– **Importance to Resolution**: Important. Humanitarian crises often affect peace negotiations.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True. Influences external pressure for a ceasefire.
10. **Fact**: ICC issued arrest warrants for Israeli leaders over alleged war crimes in Gaza, and Israel faces a genocide case at the ICJ.
– **Accuracy**: Indeterminate. Requires verification with current legal proceedings.
– **Importance to Resolution**: Important. Legal pressures can influence international relations and resolutions.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True. It could impact international dynamics and negotiations.

These facts require further verification for accuracy, especially considering the future context described. They all hold varying degrees of importance to potential ceasefire resolutions and their relevance to the overall question of whether there will be a ceasefire declared.

Fact-checked summary:
There are no statements from the fact-checking list that are both definitely true and relevant to answering the question of whether a ceasefire will be declared between Israel and Hamas in September 2025. All listed facts either contain indeterminate accuracy or are speculative and therefore cannot be used to provide a conclusive answer to the original question. Verification with current information is necessary to ascertain the situation accurately.

OpenAI gives a base rate of 15%
The question difficulty is rated 8 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
Past frequency of ceasefire in conflict, 0.2
Current geopolitical tensions in region, 0.3
Success of recent peace negotiations worldwide, 0.1
International political pressure, 0.4
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
The Bayesian calculation would adjust the base rate by weighing current geopolitical conditions and international mediation efforts heavily, while adjusting for historical ceasefire outcomes. Base rate of 0.15 is updated using likelihoods for ongoing negotiations, current mediation strength, and external pressures. Using historical factors and current environment, we might increase the base rate modestly to account for active mediation efforts: Updated probability = 0.15 + (0.3 * 0.2) + (0.4 * 0.3) = 0.27. (Carolyn’s note: 0.15+(0.3*0.2)+(0.4*0.3) = 0.33. So we still are a long way from superintelligence.)
Bayesian base rate: 27%
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 0 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 0 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 13
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate is informed by historical patterns of ceasefires in the region, which are infrequent without significant external mediation. Recent history suggests a low probability of ceasefire without distinct international efforts.

Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Having access to specific ongoing negotiation details and any official statements from either party or significant influencers (e.g., the UN, US, EU) would greatly enhance forecast accuracy.

Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Escalating violence, lack of trust between parties, or a significant geopolitical shift could either reduce or increase the likelihood of a ceasefire resolution.

The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
Negotiations initiated between Israel and Hamas possible – Mutual agreement on key ceasefire terms possible – International mediation efforts intensified likely – Reduction in hostilities and violence unlikely – Pressure from international community likely

Querying Claude (AI predicts: 5% – confidence: 7)

Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 20% – confidence: 3)

Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 25% – confidence: 5)

Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 20%
Base rate: 15% (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.08
MAPD: 0.13333333333333
Confidence: 5
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.12
Reverse Mellers: 0.29
Theory of Mind: 0.1 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.24
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>

Model value: 20%

The reasoning across the AI summaries consistently highlights the low likelihood of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas being declared by the end of September 2025, primarily due to the historically low base rate of successful ceasefires and the complex requirements for negotiation and mediation, which typically take weeks or months. This low probability is aggravated by the ongoing escalation of violence and deep mistrust between the parties, coupled with a very tight timeframe of just 13 days. However, some outlines point to the possibility, albeit slim, of a ceasefire occurring if there are already advanced secret negotiations underway, unexpected geopolitical shifts, significant international mediation efforts, or an abrupt change in leadership that prioritizes de-escalation. Unpredictable factors like humanitarian crises or major third-party interventions could also potentially accelerate the timeline for a ceasefire agreement.

Runtime: 181 seconds.