Israel/Hamas Ceasefire? Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman’s forecast, Oct. 8, 2025

Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of October 2025?

Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts 25%

Here’s how it reached this answer:

10–12 minutes read

Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: Israel Hamas ceasefire October 2025
News from various sources:

1. **Gaza Peace Talks:**
– Indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas are taking place in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, aimed at reaching a ceasefire in Gaza.
– These talks coincide with the second anniversary of a significant attack by Hamas on October 7, 2023.
– A U.S. delegation, led by Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff, is participating in these negotiations and is hopeful about progress following a productive first round.
2. **Reaction from Key Figures:**
– Israel’s far-right Minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, visited Temple Mount and expressed opposition to Hamas, coinciding with ongoing peace talks.
– U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 20-point Gaza peace plan, which Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accepted, while Hamas has shown partial agreement.
3. **International Reactions:**
– Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif welcomed Hamas’s positive response to Trump’s plan, acknowledging the efforts of various global leaders and countries in facilitating peace.
– Pakistan’s Foreign Office emphasized the need for a ceasefire and humanitarian assistance in Gaza, reinforcing Pakistan’s support for the Palestinian cause.
4. **Challenges and Prospects:**
– Despite progress in talks, challenges remain, such as Hamas’s disarmament and overall withdrawal from power.
– U.S. efforts continue to maintain adherence to any potential ceasefire agreement.
– There is a general optimism about reaching peace, but underlying tensions and obstacles need addressing.

In addition to these details, the content contained references to broader political and economic uncertainties, shifts in global investment trends, and various geopolitical tensions, though these were not directly related to the Israel-Hamas ceasefire discussions.

Fact-checking news summary:
Based on the provided summary regarding the question “Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of October 2025?”, here is a list of specific facts and an examination of their accuracy, importance, and relevance:
1. **Indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas are taking place in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, aimed at reaching a ceasefire in Gaza.**
– **Accuracy:** Unknown (Future event).
– **Importance to Resolution:** Important.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True.
2. **These talks coincide with the second anniversary of a significant attack by Hamas on October 7, 2023.**
– **Accuracy:** True (The date aligns with a previously known event. However, the assertion about the coincidence is speculative).
– **Importance to Resolution:** Lesser importance.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** False (Anniversaries don’t influence negotiations directly).
3. **A U.S. delegation, led by Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff, is participating in the negotiations and is hopeful about progress following a productive first round.**
– **Accuracy:** Unknown (Future event).
– **Importance to Resolution:** Important.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True.
4. **Israel’s far-right Minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, visited Temple Mount and expressed opposition to Hamas, coinciding with ongoing peace talks.**
– **Accuracy:** Unknown (Future event).
– **Importance to Resolution:** Lesser importance.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True.
5. **U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 20-point Gaza peace plan, which Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accepted, while Hamas has shown partial agreement.**
– **Accuracy:** Unlikely (This is not consistent with historical records up to October 2023 since Donald Trump was not the president then).
– **Importance to Resolution:** Critical (If true, this would drastically influence the ceasefire).
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True (Such announcements are directly relevant).
6. **Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif welcomed Hamas’s positive response to Trump’s plan, acknowledging the efforts of global leaders in facilitating peace.**
– **Accuracy:** Unknown (Future specific details).
– **Importance to Resolution:** Lesser importance.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True.
7. **Pakistan’s Foreign Office emphasized the need for a ceasefire and humanitarian assistance in Gaza.**
– **Accuracy:** Plausible (Consistent with Pakistan’s historical stance).
– **Importance to Resolution:** Unimportant.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** False (General statement unrelated to specific ceasefire agreements).
8. **Challenges remain, such as Hamas’s disarmament and overall withdrawal from power.**
– **Accuracy:** True (Consistent with ongoing issues up to 2023).
– **Importance to Resolution:** Important.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True.
9. **There is general optimism about reaching peace, but underlying tensions and obstacles need addressing.**
– **Accuracy:** Plausible (General sentiment not verifiable).
– **Importance to Resolution:** Lesser importance.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True (General sentiment affects negotiations).

The provided summary contains a mix of plausible future events, speculative statements, and a few potentially incorrect historical references. Some facts are accurate based on October 2023 understanding but might not align with future outcomes.

Fact-checked summary:
There are some relevant and true facts regarding the potential for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in October 2025. The current negotiations indirectly taking place in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, aim at reaching a ceasefire in Gaza, which is important for the resolution of this matter. A U.S. delegation led by Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff is participating in these negotiations and is hopeful about progress. Additionally, challenges such as Hamas’s disarmament and withdrawal from power remain significant issues, consistent with ongoing concerns as of 2023. These elements are crucial to the possibility of a ceasefire agreement.

OpenAI gives a base rate of 20%
The question difficulty is rated 8 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
Previous ceasefires between Israel and Hamas, 30%
Frequency of successful negotiations via indirect talks, 20%
Stability of Egypt’s role as a mediator, 15%
U.S. diplomatic engagement in Middle East peace processes, 20%
Hamas’s past willingness to disarm or withdraw, 15%
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
Using historical factors, the base rate is adjusted considering: previous ceasefires (P=0.25), indirect talks (P=0.15), Egypt’s stability (P=0.1), U.S. engagement (P=0.2), Hamas willingness (P=0.1). Combined weighted probability: 0.25*0.3 + 0.15*0.2 + 0.1*0.15 + 0.2*0.2 + 0.1*0.15 = 0.175 (17.5%)
Bayesian base rate: 17.5% Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 90 (Carolyn’s note: 31 days in October minus today on the 8th gives just 23 more days.)
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate was determined by examining similar ceasefire attempts between Israel and Hamas. Past agreements have rarely included disarmament or political withdrawal terms. The frequent breakdown of such agreements leads to a lower base rate.

Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Having more information on internal dynamics within Hamas and the Israeli government’s strategic priorities would improve forecast accuracy. Insights into Egypt’s and U.S.’s specific negotiation strategies could also be beneficial.

Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Current negotiations involve significant international diplomacy, which may diverge from past attempts lacking such involvement. However, entrenched political stances and historical hostility between the parties may still undermine progress.

The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Successful negotiation sessions in Sharm el-Sheikh Moderate
– U.S. delegation led by Steve Witkoff makes meaningful progress in mediation Moderate
– Agreement on terms for Hamas’s partial or full disarmament Unlikely
– Consensus on Hamas’s withdrawal from power in Gaza Unlikely
– Broader geopolitical factors support a ceasefire Moderate

Querying Claude (AI predicts: 15% – confidence: 4)

Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 35% – confidence: 4)

Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 25% – confidence: 4)

Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 25%
Base rate: 20% (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.08
MAPD: 0.13333333333333
Confidence: 4
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.17
Reverse Mellers: 0.33
Theory of Mind: 0.3 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.25
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>

Model value: 25%

The various AI summaries converge on the complexity and challenges surrounding the potential ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in October 2025. While ongoing negotiations in Sharm el-Sheikh, spearheaded by U.S. mediator Steve Witkoff, signal some diplomatic momentum, the substantial hurdles of Hamas’s disarmament and withdrawal from power remain critical barriers. Historical patterns suggest that establishing and maintaining a ceasefire is fraught with difficulties, leading to a cautious outlook on the probability of success. Despite the international mediation effort and the slight optimism it brings, entrenched political stances, historical animosities, and the possibility of geopolitical shifts introduce significant uncertainties. Predictions could be wrong if the current diplomatic momentum results in an unprecedented breakthrough or is significantly bolstered by unforeseen geopolitical developments.

Runtime: 121 seconds.